Latest news with #PhilipKlotzbach
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
NOAA just released its 2025 hurricane forecast. Here's what to know.
As Tampa Bay continues to lick its wounds from last year's devastating hurricane season, storm experts Thursday said to gear up for what could be another active season. Hurricane experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said they are expecting an above normal Atlantic hurricane season. The agency said it is anticipating up 13 to 19 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes and three to five could ramp up into a major hurricane, a Category 3 storm or higher. Forecasters expect a 60% chance of an above normal season, a 30% chance of a near normal season and just a 10% chance of below normal season. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. A typical hurricane season consists of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration The forecast, while still above normal, is not as fierce as last year's outlook, when the agency released its most aggressive preseason forecast in its history, which was driven by extreme ocean heat and a budding La Niña. 'Every thing is in place for an above average season,' said Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather service. 'What do we always say? It only takes one.' The 2025 federal outlook aligns with other early season forecasts released last month. Colorado State University, a school renowned for its hurricane research, said in April it expects 'above-normal' tropical activity this year. The university's early-season prediction stemmed from warm sea-surface temperatures, and the potential for conditions that kindle tropical activity. 'Forecasting the future is hard, whether you're forecasting weather, whether you're forecasting sporting events, political races, all that stuff,' Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at the university, said at the time. 'But we also find that you can see a lot by looking, basically by going back into the past,' Klotzbach said. 'There are clues in the atmosphere and ocean system that can tip us off as to whether the current hurricane season is going to have above or below normal activity.' • • • For Tampa Bay, Helene was the worst storm in a century More hurricanes are slamming the Gulf Coast. Is this the new normal? Want to know what areas are flooding in Tampa Bay? Here's where to look. Checklists for building all kinds of storm kits.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Tropical wave detected in Atlantic — weeks before hurricane season really begins
The first tropical wave of the season was just identified in the Atlantic Ocean — weeks before the start of this year's hurricane season. Currently moving just west of Africa, large-scale low-pressure systems similar to this may lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. 'The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W, to the south of 15N, moving west at around 11 mph. Nearby convection is noted in the monsoon trough and Intertropical Convergence Zone section,' forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said in their Tuesday update. Convection is a critical part of storm formation that sends warm air and moisture into the atmosphere. This one, however, is not expected to threaten the U.S. or develop any further. That's due to a dry and dusty air mass in its path, WFTV 9 said. Other areas of the Atlantic closer to the U.S. are quiet just 11 days before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1. In fact, it may even be eerily quiet, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. "Five other years since 1950 have had zero Northern Hemisphere named storms through May 15: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024," he wrote in a post on the social media platform X. 'The latest first named storm in the Northern Hemisphere since 1950 was in 1973. Ava formed in the eastern North Pacific on June 2 that year,' he noted. Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1, according to the Pensacola News Journal. Of those, 11 formed in May. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from the beginning of June through November 30. This season may be less active than last year, which saw the destructive Hurricane Helene and Milton. June's Hurricane Beryl was the earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Atlantic. The first named storm of the 2025 season will be Andrea. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its forecast for the season on Thursday. Forecasters at AccuWeather say the first storm could happen before the official start of the season. "We're starting to get into that season where we need to kind of keep an eye out [in the Caribbean]," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Tropical wave detected in Atlantic — weeks before hurricane season really begins
The first tropical wave of the season was just identified in the Atlantic Ocean — weeks before the start of this year's hurricane season. Currently moving just west of Africa, large-scale low-pressure systems similar to this may lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. 'The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W, to the south of 15N, moving west at around 11 mph. Nearby convection is noted in the monsoon trough and Intertropical Convergence Zone section,' forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said in their Tuesday update. Convection is a critical part of storm formation that sends warm air and moisture into the atmosphere. This one, however, is not expected to threaten the U.S. or develop any further. That's due to a dry and dusty air mass in its path, WFTV 9 said. Other areas of the Atlantic closer to the U.S. are quiet just 11 days before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1. In fact, it may even be eerily quiet, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. "Five other years since 1950 have had zero Northern Hemisphere named storms through May 15: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024," he wrote in a post on the social media platform X. 'The latest first named storm in the Northern Hemisphere since 1950 was in 1973. Ava formed in the eastern North Pacific on June 2 that year,' he noted. Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1, according to the Pensacola News Journal. Of those, 11 formed in May. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from the beginning of June through November 30. This season may be less active than last year, which saw the destructive Hurricane Helene and Milton. June's Hurricane Beryl was the earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Atlantic. The first named storm of the 2025 season will be Andrea. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its forecast for the season on Thursday. Forecasters at AccuWeather say the first storm could happen before the official start of the season. "We're starting to get into that season where we need to kind of keep an eye out [in the Caribbean]," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
The Independent
20-05-2025
- Climate
- The Independent
Tropical wave detected in Atlantic — weeks before hurricane season really begins
The first tropical wave of the season was just identified in the Atlantic Ocean — weeks before the start of this year's hurricane season. Currently moving just west of Africa, large-scale low-pressure systems similar to this may lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. 'The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W, to the south of 15N, moving west at around 11 mph. Nearby convection is noted in the monsoon trough and Intertropical Convergence Zone section,' forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said in their Tuesday update. Convection is a critical part of storm formation that sends warm air and moisture into the atmosphere. This one, however, is not expected to threaten the U.S. or develop any further. That's due to a dry and dusty air mass in its path, WFTV 9 said. Other areas of the Atlantic closer to the U.S. are quiet just 11 days before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1. In fact, it may even be eerily quiet, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. "Five other years since 1950 have had zero Northern Hemisphere named storms through May 15: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024," he wrote in a post on the social media platform X. 'The latest first named storm in the Northern Hemisphere since 1950 was in 1973. Ava formed in the eastern North Pacific on June 2 that year,' he noted. Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1, according to the Pensacola News Journal. Of those, 11 formed in May. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from the beginning of June through November 30. This season may be less active than last year, which saw the destructive Hurricane Helene and Milton. June's Hurricane Beryl was the earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Atlantic. The first named storm of the 2025 season will be Andrea. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its forecast for the season on Thursday. Forecasters at AccuWeather say the first storm could happen before the official start of the season.
Yahoo
19-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
What is a tropical wave and why is National Hurricane Center watching it?
The National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic. Elsewhere, the quiet continues in the tropics, with no activity expected over the next seven days. ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The quiet is fairly unusual, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. "Five other years since 1950 have had zero Northern Hemisphere named storms through May 15: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024," he posted on X. By this time in May, an average of 3.5 storms typically would have formed, Klotzbach said. ➤ Track all active storms The first named storm of the 2025 season will be Andrea. Here's the National Hurricane Center's daily outlook as of 8 a.m., May 19. The National Hurricane Center said there are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin and no tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days. Forecasters did note the presence of a tropical wave moving away from the western coast of Africa at 6 to 11 mph. The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. NOAA changed its naming convention for the Gulf of Mexico after the U.S. Geological Survey changed the name on U.S. maps per President Trump's order. Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared. ➤ Creating hurricane supplies kit important, but what if money is tight? Tips, resources to help A tropical wave is a system of low pressure that moves westward across the tropics. Waves can lead to the formation of tropical cyclones, under the right conditions, according to the National Weather Service. The majority of tropical cyclones develop out of tropical waves, which also are called easterly waves, according to NOAA. Factors that limit the formation of tropical cyclones include wind shear and Saharan dust. There have been zero named storms in the Northern Hemisphere so far in 2025, Klotzbach said. "Five other years since 1950 have had zero Northern Hemisphere named storms through May 15: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024," he posted on X. "So, the western North Pacific tends to be the primary contributor to named storm activity this time of year," Klotzbach told USA TODAY. The quiet in the western Pacific is due to unusual wind patterns near the Philippines. "This wind pattern creates anti-cyclonic flow, which is not supportive for storm formations," he said. Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1. Eleven of those storms formed in May. There have even been occasions when a tropical cyclone has formed in January. Here's a look back at a few of the early storms: Jan. 16-17, 2023: Unnamed subtropical storm. May 22-23, 2021: Tropical Storm Ana. May 16-19, 2020: Tropical Storm Arthur. May 27-28, 2020: Tropical Storm Bertha. May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea. May 25-31, 2018: Tropical Storm Alberto. April 19-21, 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene. Jan. 12-15, 2016: Hurricane Alex May 27-June 4, 2016: Tropical Storm Bonnie May 8-11, 2015: Tropical Storm Ana. May 19-22, 2012: Tropical Storm Alberto. May 26-30, 2012: Tropical Storm Beryl. May 31-June 1, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur. May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea. April 20-24, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana. The first named storm of the 2025 hurricane season will be Andrea. Since 2003, Andrea has appeared twice in May, including the last year the name appeared in 2019. May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea The World Meteorological Committee maintains six lists of hurricane names in the Atlantic basin and separate lists for the Pacific basin. There are 21 names on each list. The six lists of names are used on a rotating basis, so names from the list used in 2025 will appear again in 2031, unless a name is retired. A nation hit hardest by a devastating storm can request its name be removed because use of the name again would be insensitive. Beryl, Helene and Milton were retired from the list used last year and were replaced with Brianna, Holly, Miguel Tropical outlooks are issued every day by the National Hurricane Center from May 15 through Nov. 30. The outlooks come out at 8 a.m., 2 p.m., 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. ET. ➤ Where can I find Hurricane Center's tropical outlooks? ➤ Where will Hurricane Center issue advisories? A map highlights "significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next seven days," said Larry Kelly, hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, in an email. Contained in the outlook are the probabilities an area could develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and seven days: A low probability of development ranges from 0-30% (designated in yellow) A medium probability of development ranges from 40-60% (designated in orange) A high probability of development ranges from 70-100% (designated in red) "The hatched areas on the graphic represent the potential formation area during the forecast period. It is important to note that it is not a forecast track and just a formation area," Kelly said. ➤ In a rush? 15 things you should know before 2025 hurricane season arrives "The tropical weather outlook provides forecasts on areas of disturbed weather that could develop into tropical cyclones," Kelly said. "It highlights the location, movement, and development potential of these systems over the next two to seven days. "This information is important for early preparation and awareness during hurricane season so you can be prepared for the hazards that systems can bring, including storm surge, flooding, strong winds, tornadoes and hazardous marine and beach conditions." Although many people search Google for an answer to the question "When is Florida hurricane season," there actually is no such thing. The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said, so storms can form before and after those dates. Tropical storms and hurricanes that develop in the Atlantic basin do impact the U.S., from the Gulf Coast and Florida north into Canada. The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. Predictions released as of May 13 predict an above-normal number of named tropical systems, ranging from: Named storms: 13-21 Hurricanes: 7-10 Major hurricanes: 3-5 ➤ Florida is No. 1. That's not good when it comes to hurricane season predictions. See forecast Named storms: 14 Hurricanes: 7 Major hurricanes: 3 The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will provided tropical weather coverage daily until Nov. 30 to keep you informed and prepared. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. Contributing: Doyle Rice, USA TODAY (This story was updated to add new information and photos.) This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: NHC tracking tropical wave in Atlantic. What's its storm potential?
