Latest news with #PierreMasselot
Voice of America
06-02-2025
- Health
- Voice of America
Study: Millions of Europeans Could Die from Heat by 2100
A new study warns that millions of Europeans could die from heat-related causes by the end of the century. The study was based on computer simulations of predicted climate activity in 854 different European cities. It found that extreme temperatures, mostly heat, could kill as many as 2.3 million people in Europe by 2100. The researchers said the number of predicted deaths could be reduced if nations are able to find better ways of cutting carbon pollution levels and dealing with extreme heat. Currently, cold weather kills far more people in Europe than hot weather. But the study found that as temperatures continue to rise, deaths from cold weather will lessen over time. However, heat-related deaths are predicted to rise sharply. Scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine led the research. The results appeared recently in a study in the publication Nature Medicine. The researchers urged increased efforts to reduce greenhouse gases and expand indoor air-cooling systems and cooling centers in parts of Europe. Without such efforts, places in Italy, southern Spain and Greece are likely to see large increases in heat deaths related to climate change, the study found. On the other hand, much of Scandinavia and Britain are predicted to see fewer temperature-related deaths, largely because low temperatures are expected to become more moderate. Pierre Masselot studies the environmental effects of human health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. He helped lead the research. Masselot told the Associated Press that drops in cold deaths in northern parts of Europe are happening in areas not as populated as places further south. 'The Mediterranean is a so-called climate hotspot," he said. "It's a region that is warming much quicker than the rest of the world. And Malta is right in the middle of it.' The study predicts Malta's temperature-related deaths will increase by 269 people for every 100,000 individuals by the end of the century. On the other hand, Ireland's rate is expected to drop slightly to 15 per 100,000 people. European officials reported several heat waves have killed thousands of people in recent years across the continent. The highest number was in 2003, when about 70,000 deaths were recorded. Among the areas predicted to see the most deaths from future temperature rises is Barcelona, Spain. The study found almost 250,000 people could die from temperature-related causes in that city by 2100. And the study warned that Rome and Naples could have up to 150,000 deaths. The study predicted that more than 5.8 million extra heat deaths would be linked to climate change. At the same time, the study found cold-related deaths would drop by 3.5 million. I'm Bryan Lynn. The Associated Press reported on this story. Bryan Lynn adapted the report for VOA Learning English. _____________________________________________ Words in This Story simulate – v. do or make something that behaves or looks like something real but is not region – n. a particular area in a country or the world
Yahoo
27-01-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
Global warming to prevent 3.4 million deaths from cold ... but at a deadly cost
Global warming will prevent 3.4 million deaths from the cold in Europe by the end of the century, but excess heat will claim millions of lives on the Continent, new figures show. A stark north-south divide has emerged, as data show northerly European countries – including Britain – would see an overall mortality benefit from rising temperatures, while central and southern areas will face devastating consequences. Modelling of 854 cities by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) shows that unmitigated warming would prevent about 630,000 deaths in Britain cumulatively by 2099. In contrast, heat would kill about 360,000 – leaving a net benefit of some 270,000 lives saved. Likewise, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia and Norway would have more lives saved by preventing cold weather deaths than they lose from rising temperatures. However, countries including Italy, Spain and France would face hundreds of thousands of excess deaths, even after taking into account those people saved from the cold. Overall, researchers calculated that there would be about 5.8 million deaths in Europe because of unmitigated warming by the end of the century, with 3.4 million cold-weather deaths avoided – equating to about 2.3 million excess deaths overall. Commenting on the research, Prof Tim Osborn, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, said: 'Cold weather and hot weather kill tens of thousands of people across Europe every year. 'The harm from climate change impacts people very unevenly in this case, with far greater increases in temperature-related deaths predicted for southern Europe than for northern Europe, where milder winters may even reduce the number of deaths.' The same groups of people are generally at risk from both extreme cold and extreme heat, such as older adults and people with health conditions. Modelling showed that most cities in Britain and Scandinavian countries would have a net decrease in deaths. For example, London would have about 27,000 fewer deaths, Edinburgh would save 2,400, Belfast 1,908 and Cardiff 2,021. However, researchers said the lower death toll would be massively outweighed by the increases in the rest of Europe, particularly in populous Mediterranean cities. Barcelona would be the worst hit with 246,082 more deaths, followed by Rome and Naples at about 147,000 and Madrid with nearly 130,000 excess deaths by 2099. Pierre Masselot, lead author of the study from LSHTM, said: 'Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat. 'This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire.' The figures were based on temperature projections coupled with population data and death estimates as a result of extreme conditions. Experts said that up to 70 per cent of the deaths could be prevented if rapid action was taken to adapt cities to changing temperatures, such as increasing green spaces, or implementing early warning systems. Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a lecturer at Imperial College London, added: 'Previous estimates based on historical data have suggested that for every heat-related death there are roughly 10 cold-related deaths. 'This raises important questions about the net impact of temperature changes due to anthropogenic climate change. 'This new study underscores a crucial point: without any adaptation to temperature, projections suggest that temperature-related deaths are likely to increase overall, with heat-related deaths surpassing cold-related ones.' Experts warned that the figures were likely to be higher because the cities studied accounted for about 40 per cent of people in each country. The research was published in the journal Nature Medicine. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
The Guardian
27-01-2025
- Health
- The Guardian
Dangerous temperatures could kill 50% more Europeans by 2100, study finds
Dangerous temperatures could kill 50% more people in Europe by the end of the century, a study has found, with the lives lost to stronger heat projected to outnumber those saved from milder cold. The researchers estimated an extra 8,000 people would die each year as a result of 'suboptimal temperatures' even under the most optimistic scenario for cutting planet-heating pollution. The hottest plausible scenario they considered showed a net increase of 80,000 temperature-related deaths a year. The findings challenge an argument popular among those who say global heating is good for society because fewer people will die from cold weather. 'We wanted to test this,' said Pierre Masselot, a statistician at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and lead author of the study. 'And we show clearly that we will see a net increase in temperature-related deaths under climate change.' The study builds on previous research in which the scientists linked temperature to mortality rates for different age groups in 854 cities across Europe. They combined these with three climate scenarios that map possible changes in population structure and temperature over the century. In all three scenarios, they found, uncomfortable temperatures will kill more people than they do today. The scientists cautioned that the uncertainties in the data are large. The net death toll is set to rise the most in hot southern Europe, particularly around the Mediterranean, with a second hotspot in central Europe that covers Switzerland, Austria and parts of southern Germany and Poland. Cool northern Europe, meanwhile, is expected to see a small decrease in deaths. 'In Norway, for instance, we might see a very slight benefit,' said Masselot. '[But this] is completely overshadowed by this massive increase we see in southern countries.' Heat and cold are silent killers that hurt the body well before they reach extremes that cause hypothermia and heatstroke. Excess mortality rates soar during heatwaves, particularly among people who are old or sick, as hot weather forces their bodies into overdrive and stops them from resting. Cold spells raise blood pressure and contribute to a range of heart and lung problems. 'Put bluntly, the increase in hot weather will kill more people than the decrease in cold weather will save,' said Tim Osborn, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia, who was not involved in the research. 'While this new study isn't the final say on the matter … it does break new ground by scrutinising people's vulnerability to extreme temperatures by age and by city to a much better level of detail than previous work.' The analysis, which was limited to European cities, did not consider rural regions, which are less exposed to the urban heat island effect, or other parts of the planet, where heat is a more pressing problem. In total, they estimated the high warming scenario would lead to an extra 2.3 million people dying from dangerous temperatures in Europe between 2015 and 2099. Madeleine Thomson, a climate and health expert at research charity Wellcome, said the death toll was just one of the dangers of rising temperatures. 'Extreme heat kills but it also causes a wide range of serious health problems. It has been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, miscarriages and poor mental health.' Climate sceptics have argued against cutting pollution on the grounds that global warming will save lives, because cold kills more people than heat. Climate scientists say the different response rates to changes in temperature mean that heat deaths will grow much faster than cold deaths will fall, particularly at higher temperatures. 'There are also legitimate arguments that this net effect is only of limited relevance,' said Erich Fischer, a climate scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ), who was not involved in the study. 'If a new drug with serious side effects that lead to countless deaths were approved, I would hardly argue that the drug saves about as many lives, or that the net effect could even be slightly positive in the short term despite the many deaths.' The study explored how lives could be saved if people adapted to the changes in temperature and reduced their exposure to uncomfortable temperatures. In the hottest scenario, only 'implausibly strong' levels of adaptation could halt the trend of rising net deaths, the study found. In scenarios that cut carbon pollution, a 50% drop in temperature exposure was enough for net deaths to drop. 'The good news is that we can adapt,' said Víctor Resco de Dios, an environmental engineer at the University of Lleida, who was not involved in the study. 'Adaptation starts with relatively simple solutions – although they are not free – such as installing air conditioning or creating spaces that serve as climate shelters.' 'But we must also address more complex solutions – such as increasing green areas in cities to mitigate the urban heat island – and adapting health systems,' he added.
