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The Guardian
11 hours ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Poland's presidential election result is a morale boost for Maga forces in Europe
Polish voters returned to the polls on Sunday for the decisive round of a presidential election whose outcome reverberates far beyond Poland's borders. The race was a showdown between two candidates who represent the country's stark political and ideological divide: Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the far-right opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), and Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal and strongly pro-European mayor of Warsaw representing the Civic Platform (PO) party of the prime minister, Donald Tusk. The razor-thin victory for Nawrocki, who secured just over 50% of the vote, is a domestic setback for Tusk, but it also threatens wide and gloomy repercussions within the EU and beyond. Tusk's return to power as prime minister in 2023, after previously serving from 2007 to 2014, was widely seen as a bid to re-anchor Poland within the European project. His government promised reforms, especially in restoring the rule of law, after years of confrontational policies under PiS aimed at undermining the independence of the judiciary and the constitutional court. Those ambitions now face a significant institutional roadblock. While the Polish presidency is largely ceremonial, the president has significant powers: they can veto legislation and influence domestic, foreign and defence policy. The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, who is also aligned with PiS, used his veto to block Tusk's reform efforts. With Nawrocki now set to occupy the presidential palace, such obstruction is expected to intensify rather than ease. The implications of this election are potentially immense. Political deadlock between a pro-European government and a Eurosceptic president could stall Poland's reform agenda and weaken the country's standing within the EU. It also risks undermining the unity of the European response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Poland has played a leading role here, providing humanitarian and military aid and acting as a key diplomatic force on the EU's eastern flank. Nawrocki, though, could inject a new unreliability into that equation, as became clear during the campaign when he repeatedly pitted Poles against Ukrainian refugees. His victory could place additional strain on Europe's cohesion at a time when the US has already rolled back military, humanitarian and diplomatic aid to Kyiv. The comeback for PiS that this outcome represents also reflects a broader global trend of political polarisation. While far-right parties have recently lost ground in countries such as Canada, Australia and Romania, where the pro-European Nicușor Dan convincingly defeated the far-right presidential challenger, George Simion, Poland is shifting towards the conservative and nationalist camp. The Polish election signals a reconsolidation of the far right. Nawrocki's win is a morale boost for the international movement surrounding Donald Trump. After a string of defeats for Trump-aligned candidates, Poland's result gives renewed momentum to the global wing of the 'make America great again' agenda. At CPAC Hungary, a gathering of conservative and far-right politicians held days before the Polish vote, the US secretary of homeland security, Kristi Noem, urged Polish voters to choose 'the right leader' and attacked Trzaskowski as 'a train wreck'. This kind of overt election interference is increasingly common in the Trump era and illustrates how closely Europe's far right is now tied to Trumpism. This also reveals a paradox: while Trump undermines the credibility of multilateral institutions such as Nato through his inflammatory rhetoric, he is able to mobilise a different kind of internationalism – one for leaders across Europe who emphasise national sovereignty and identity. His implicit message, that Europe is on its own and can't rely on the US to defend it, serves not only as a warning but reinforces nationalist instincts. Earlier this year, Trump again declared that Nato countries 'don't pay enough' and that they could no longer count on US support, a comment that sparked near-panic in European capitals. For centrist leaders, it reinforced calls for stronger European defence cooperation. But on the political fringes, it was seen as confirmation that nations must rely on themselves. The defeat of Tusk's favoured candidate in Poland symbolises a larger battle over the political narrative. Trzaskowski's pro-European message, rooted in cooperation, shared values and the rule of law, failed to convince enough voters that it could protect Poland from geopolitical threats. Nawrocki's message of national control and sovereignty resonated more. The long-term threat from revanchist Russia, combined with Trump's unpredictable leadership, has shaken Europe's decades-long strategic reliance on US military protection. The continent now faces the urgent task of rethinking its own security architecture. Ironically, Trump's unpredictability is what may accelerate this process. But it requires political will, not only in Brussels but in the capitals of EU member states. As long as parties such as PiS maintain a grip on national institutions, Europe's strategic shift remains fragile. Poland's election outcome therefore serves as a warning to pro-European politicians. Without a compelling narrative on security, social protection and national identity, pro-European parties will struggle to retain voter support. The future of Europe will not be decided in Brussels alone; it hinges just as much on the electoral choices made in Warsaw, Bucharest and other capitals. The real impact of Trump in Europe, whether as a force that strengthens or weakens the European project, will ultimately be determined not in Washington but in the voting booths of Europe itself. Catherine De Vries is Generali chair in European policies and professor at Bocconi University in Milan
BBC News
17 hours ago
- Business
- BBC News
Karol Nawrocki: Poland's conservative president-elect to be tough opponent for PM
Poland's president-elect Karol Nawrocki is taking up a largely ceremonial role, but his impact on the country's politics in the next five years may be supporters, the national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) opposition, feels re-energised after losing power 18 months ago to Donald Tusk's pro-EU coalition, and view his success as the first step to a return to president has limited influence on foreign and defence policy, but can propose and veto bills. Tusk's government lacks a big enough parliamentary majority to overturn a presidential outgoing conservative president, Andrzej Duda, has used his blocking powers to prevent the prime minister from delivering on many of his key campaign include giving Polish women the right to a legal abortion up to the 12th week of pregnancy, legalising civil partnerships including same-sex relationships, accelerating onshore wind farm developments and removing political influence from the a socially conservative 42-year-old historian, is widely expected to be an even tougher opponent for Tusk than Duda. Some believe the resulting paralysis could tempt the government to hold early elections before the scheduled autumn 2027 deadline."In all probability it will mean early elections, because he will veto any law the government passes," Konstanty Gebert, a journalist for weekly magazine Kultura Liberalna told the BBC."Constitutionally, early elections are difficult to do if the government doesn't want them, but if it is going from defeat to defeat and cannot govern, they might decide that they are the lesser evil," he government has a parliamentary majority, so it can stay in office until autumn 2027 unless the coalition breaks up. That union includes the conservative People's party, centrists and leftists, which is a key reason why Tusk has failed to reach an agreement on issues like abortion and civil partnerships. Alternatively, the government could decide early elections are in its best interests. Nawrocki is a proud Polish patriot, a conservative Catholic who opposes illegal migration, extending legal rights to people in same-sex relationships, and liberalising the country's strict abortion believes Tusk's vision of cementing Poland in the EU mainstream by relying on good relations with Brussels, Berlin and Paris runs counter to Polish national interests. Those interests are best served, he says, by standing up to Germany when their opinions diverge and not ceding more powers to Brussels. Nawrocki opposes the EU's climate proposals, such as the Green Deal, because he says limiting greenhouse gas emissions will harm small Polish supports continued military and humanitarian assistance to neighbouring Ukraine. Poland is home to the international hub for supplies to Kyiv. But he does not believe that Ukraine joining Nato or the EU whilst Russian aggression is ongoing enhances Poland's a supporter of US President Donald Trump and criticised the approach Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky took during the infamous Oval Office dressing down. US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem flew to Poland a few days before the election to endorse Nawrocki, a keen amateur boxer, calling him a "strong" leader like election result was close, similar to that won by Duda against Warsaw's liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski five years ago, a sign that the country's political polarisation has not eased. In a premature victory speech, delivered after an exit poll gave him a razor-thin win immediately after voting ended on Sunday night, Trzaskowski vowed to be a president for all at the same time, Nawrocki made no such promises. Instead, he told his supporters that his campaign managed to unite the "patriotic camp" in Poland. Neither candidate inspired confidence that they would make constructive efforts to reach out to the other conflict between the two political groups that have dominated Polish politics for two decades, may feed into increased support for anti-establishment parties, such as the far-right Confederation or the hard young libertarian candidate Slawomir Mentzen continued the group's recent gains, coming third in the first round of the presidential election. Could it increase its support, and might it be persuaded to join a future PiS-led government?Another Confederation leader Krzysztof Bosak denied the latter possibility on Monday, saying the two parties would not get closer because they're fighting for the same voters.
Reuters
4 days ago
- General
- Reuters
Punch-ups and tobacco pouches: Polish presidential race gets personal
WARSAW, May 30 (Reuters) - The centrist frontrunner in Poland's knife-edge presidential election on Sunday says Poles know everything about him, contrasting that with the slew of media reports about his nationalist opponent's alleged past conduct. "The President of the Republic of Poland cannot be someone about whom we learn something every day that not only puzzles us, but often terrifies us," Rafal Trzaskowski, from the ruling Civic Coalition, told a rally in the southern Polish town of Chrzanow on Tuesday. The past of opposition Law and Justice-backed candidate Karol Nawrocki has dominated public debate - be it questions over his acquisition of a flat from a pensioner or an admission that he took part in orchestrated brawls. "All my sports activities were based on the strength of my heart, the strength of my muscles, my fists," Nawrocki, a historian and amateur boxer, told a debate when confronted over reports he had been involved in mass organised fights between football hooligans. "It was a fair competition, regardless of the form." He had previously denied wrongdoing in relation to accusations that he lied about owning the flat, a second property, and that he had acquired it from the elderly man in return for a promise of care which he did not provide. After questioning about the issue, he said he would give the flat to charity, dismissing what he called "media lies". Nawrocki also faced criticism for inserting a 'snus' tobacco pouch under his lip during a live debate, with an Opinia24 survey for private broadcaster TVN showing that 53% of respondents viewed this negatively. His Law and Justice party backers have accused the government of orchestrating the controversies with the help of Poland's special services and liberal media. The government rejects these accusations. Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has faced questions over whether a series of advertisements criticising his opponents subverted campaign spending rules. He also denies any wrongdoing. If he wins, the Polish government will be able to continue reforms to bring it into line with European Union norms on issues like judicial independence and LGBT rights. If Nawrocki wins, he is likely to use his veto, as the current president has done, to block them, arguing that Poland should take a conservative path inspired by the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite the stream of negative coverage, Nawrocki's polling numbers appear largely unscathed, with Trzaskowski's lead within the margin of error. A survey by CBOS showed that 99% of people who voted for Nawrocki in the first round would also back him in the second. Andrzej Rychard, a sociologist from the Polish Academy of Science, said that the deep polarisation in Polish politics meant that many Law and Justice voters dismissed the allegations as untrue or decided that "even if it is true, it still does not bother me". Added to this Rychard said that Nawrocki had projected an image of himself as someone from a humble background who can get things done. "He comes rather from the bottom, that is, from difficult environments, which does not necessarily have to be a source of antipathy, on the contrary, it may be well-received by a large part of the electorate, who do not identify with the elite." Nawrocki's campaign say that Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski is an out-of-touch metropolitan liberal who doesn't understand ordinary Poles. They have mocked his fluency in five foreign languages, nicknaming him 'Bazur', a Polonised transcription of the French word 'bonjour'. For Trzaskowski's supporters, meanwhile, the allegations about Nawrocki make him completely unsuitable for the nation's highest office. "He has no idea about politics," said 68-year-old market trader Stanislaw, who declined to give his surname and repeated some of the allegations in the media reports to show why he did not trust him. Jacek, a 73-year-old pensioner who also declined to give his surname, took a different view. "He is a patriot, kind to people, an honest person, a strong person, which is exactly what we are missing," he said. Asked about Nawrocki's involvement in fights, he said "young people do those kinds of things".
Times
19-05-2025
- Politics
- Times
Liberal mayor leads Polish presidential election, exit polls show
Poland is heading for a run-off presidential vote in two weeks' time after a pro-European Union centrist candidate edged into the lead ahead of a nationalist, conservative Eurosceptic. Exit polls put Rafal Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw who is backed by Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, less than two points ahead of Karol Nawrocki, a historian and former boxer backed by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party. A significant lead for Trzaskowski failed to materialise — after opinion polls had put him ahead by up to six points —setting the stage for intense campaigning over the direction of Polish politics. The projected result appears to represent the smallest vote share for the two main parties since the 2005 presidential election, which firmly split
Reuters
19-05-2025
- Politics
- Reuters
Polish presidential election a 'yellow card' for Tusk government
WARSAW, May 19 (Reuters) - If large urban centres are the core constituency of the liberal government of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, then Sunday's presidential election first round showed him struggling against an anti-establishment pushback simmering throughout Europe. Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, a close ally of Tusk, scraped a narrow win over Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian fielded by the opposition nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS). Together, candidates backed by parties in Tusk's broad coalition won 40% of votes, while the combined far-right garnered a record 21%. Trzaskowski, who speaks six languages and is the son of a jazz musician, got almost a quarter of a million fewer votes in the five biggest cities than in the first round five years ago, when the PiS-backed incumbent Andrzej Duda was re-elected. Andrzej Rychard, a sociologist from the Polish Academy of Science, called the outcome a "yellow card" for Trzaskowski ahead of an as-yet unpredictable runoff on June 1. A Trzaskowski victory would give Tusk a chance to complete the democratic reforms that he promised to implement when he swept to power in 2023, ending eight years of nationalist PiS rule that he and Poland's Western allies said had eroded checks and balances. A win for Nawrocki, a social conservative with a eurosceptic streak, would further hinder this, and also weaken Tusk's efforts to rebuild alliances that he sees as crucial to European unity on supporting Ukraine in its three-year-old war against Russian invasion. Like Duda, Nawrocki would also be likely to stymie any Tusk efforts to relax Poland's near total ban on abortion, a key Tusk election promise from 2023. However, Nawrocki's first-round performance, much like Trzaskowski's, was underwhelming. His 29.5% score was well below the 35.4% that PiS won in 2023's parliamentary election. It was anti-establishment parties such as the far-right Confederation and the radical Left who did better than in the last parliamentary and presidential elections, and that should be no surprise. Voters across Europe are frustrated that established parties in power appear to have little answer to problems such as inflation and the negative effects of immigration. Former communist countries in Central Europe such as Poland embraced joining the EU from 2004 onwards, but the hopes their citizens once had of catching up fast with their wealthier western neighbours have faded in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic and then the economic fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine have slowed economic convergence to the point where the European Central Bank said last June that "since 2019, the catching-up process has stalled, or even reversed". Krzysztof Izdebski, policy director at the Batory Foundation, said a majority of votes on Sunday had gone to opposition groups. "So, it is clear that ... what has happened over the past two years did not impress Poles or give them confidence that these reforms could be completed," he said. "The issues that mobilised opposition electorates have remained unaddressed." Trzaskowski has sought to put some distance between himself and Tusk's government. "We certainly do not intend to break away from the coalition," said campaign team member Dorota Loboda. "At the same time, we emphasise that, of course, Rafal Trzaskowski is not part of the government puzzle and, as president, he will be independent," she said. One big goal for both remaining candidates will be attracting younger voters. "It would be best to do something on housing for young people, because it's really hard for young people now," said Barbara Zurawska, a pensioner from Warsaw. "They live with their parents for a very long time, and it's hard to take out loans and repay them. Not everyone can do that, can they?" Exit poll data showed that turnout among voters under 30 was nearly 73%, compared with the overall figure of 67%. The far-right's Slawomir Mentzen, who came third on Sunday with 14.8%, won more than 36% of young votes, while the hard-left Adrian Zandberg scored 4.9%, helped by 19.7% of the younger vote.
