Latest news with #PolicyHorizons
Epoch Times
28-04-2025
- Business
- Epoch Times
Cory Morgan: Government Think Tank Predicting Economic Doom Should Be a Wake-Up Call for Parties
Commentary Policy Horizons Canada is a Privy Council think tank studying socioeconomic trends that offers reports and predictions to the highest level of government. The organization's most recent They see wealth inequality in a reduced economy leading to possible mass social disorder and spreading mental health challenges as people sink into despair. In the report's words: 'In 2040, upward social mobility is almost unheard of in Canada. Hardly anyone believes that they can build a better life for themselves, or their children, through their own efforts.' The prognostications are dire, and it's tempting to dismiss them as exaggerations from pessimistic researchers rather than accept the possibility of such a bleak future. In reading the report, it's evident that the prophecies are based on visible socioeconomic trends. The wealth gap is quickly widening while frustrated young Canadians are abandoning hope of home ownership or prosperity in their future. The top two parties in contention for the leadership of Canada aren't proposing the kind of radical policy changes required to head off the grim conjectures of Policy Horizons. To turn Canada from its trajectory, the government must shrink and deregulate to draw both human capital and foreign investment into the nation. The government must take on trade unions, crony capitalists, and environmental activists to facilitate broad economic development. Related Stories 4/22/2025 4/13/2025 Those sorts of policy proposals, however, send chills down the spines of political strategists who want anything but conflict with the aforementioned groups during an election campaign. So we are left hoping that whoever forms the next government has a hidden agenda of reform, which will be quickly implemented upon assuming power. Housing is a most basic need. Especially in a climate as harsh as Canada. Despite years of promises and countless government-sponsored programs, home ownership remains out of reach for a growing number of Canadians, while low housing supplies lead to rising rent. The report predicts existing homeowners could become future aristocrats as they expand property holdings to hand down to their children, while an underclass locked in the world of renting can't get ahead. Canada could devolve into a class-based society with 'social siloing,' separating citizens based on their economic standing. Social division and a shrinking economy with wealth concentrated in the hands of a smaller number of people could start a chain reaction as skilled and ambitious people emigrate to jurisdictions offering better opportunities for upward social mobility. If younger people flee, the social systems caring for the older population will become further strained. The demographic balance of the nation could tilt, leaving older Canadians cash-rich but resource-poor due to overburdened health and senior care resources. Those remaining in the country could find themselves seeking alternative ways to meet their needs. People could form housing, health, and food production cooperatives to make ends meet. While that may be effective, it also would lead to a form of tribalism and social introversion for large groups of people. These groups would be distanced from government influence and likely would harbour strong distrust of state institutions. They could become hubs of dangerous discontent. People may take out their ire upon scapegoats such as immigrants or other identifiable groups if they aren't blaming the government itself. The potential for social conflicts will grow and could blossom into general violence. While the world envisioned within the report may hold appeal for hardcore ideological libertarians, it would be a rough and miserable place in reality. Almost all the frightening scenarios packed within the report are already happening. It's just a matter of degree. If current trends continue, the predictions could become reality in short order. If the report had been generated by an obscure or private advocacy group, its conclusions could be questioned or possibly dismissed. Ironically, this is one of the few times we can hope the parties vying to run in the election are being disingenuous as they offer grander versions of the current government path. Perhaps they understand the gravity of the situation and the report, but don't feel they can effectively campaign on the solutions. Just this once, let's hope they are blowing smoke while they maintain a hidden agenda of reform. Because if they stay on the current trajectory, our future looks dark indeed. Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
CBC
27-04-2025
- Business
- CBC
The economy, housing, pipelines: Not all claims in the federal election campaign were true
Social Sharing In an election campaign plagued by misinformation, exaggerated claims and even lies, how can voters tell what's true? CBC's Election Fact Check Unit has looked into dozens of statements made by the leaders of the four largest federal parties. It found that each of the leaders — some more than others — has at times made statements or cited facts that were either out of date, misleading or just plain false. Here's an overview of a few of the things each leader said on the campaign trail that didn't quite pass the smell test. Liberal Leader Mark Carney Financial crisis of 2008-09 The claim: On April 3, Carney told reporters on Parliament Hill that in 2008-09, when he was governor of the Bank of Canada, the country avoided a recession. The facts: It didn't. Canada did weather the crisis better than the United States, but its gross domestic product dropped for three consecutive quarters during that period — constituting a recession. Carney acknowledged this in February 2009, when he testified before the House of Commons finance committee. "The global downturn and the declining demand for our exports will make this a very difficult year for Canada's economy," Carney told members of Parliament. "We are now in recession, with GDP projected to fall by 1.2 per cent this year." Auto sector The claim: On March 26, Carney told reporters that motor-vehicle manufacturing was Canada's second-largest export, providing 125,000 direct and nearly 500,000 indirect jobs. The facts: The numbers Carney cited were out of date. According to Statistics Canada, motor-vehicle manufacturing was Canada's third-largest export in 2024 and accounted for 138,520 direct jobs. Foreign aid The claim: On March 23, the day he launched the election campaign, Carney accused Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre of planning to eliminate foreign aid. The facts: Poilievre has said there would be "massive" cuts in foreign aid because he believes too much Canadian government money is going to dictators, terrorist groups and global bureaucracies. However, he has not said that a Conservative government would completely eliminate foreign aid. WATCH | How CBC News is fact-checking claims by parties and candidates: How CBC News is fact-checking the federal election 1 month ago Duration 1:28 Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre Policy Horizons report The claim: In the final week of the campaign, Poilievre has often talked about a January 2025 report on social mobility in 2040 prepared by Policy Horizons, a think-tank within Employment and Social Development Canada. The report paints a bleak picture of Canada's possible future. Poilievre has portrayed the report as containing predictions and scenarios resulting from Liberal government policies in recent years. The facts: While the report looks at possible scenarios for Canada in 2040, it doesn't make predictions. The report also includes a disclaimer saying that it "does not necessarily represent the views of the Government of Canada." Liberal platform The claim: Over the past week, ever since the Liberal Party released its platform, Poilievre has said repeatedly that the Liberal Party's platform was drafted for former prime minister Justin Trudeau and that the party simply switched Carney's name for Trudeau's. The facts: Poilievre bases his statement on an April 20 interview on CBC's Rosemary Barton Live, where a panellist said Liberal MP Mona Fortier had been working on the platform for months, well before Carney became leader. The Liberal Party says that although Fortier was consulting party members, advocates and experts while Trudeau was still prime minister, the party only began drafting the platform after Trudeau announced he would resign. A second Liberal says Carney and a team of advisers began working on the platform in January, while Carney was running to be Liberal leader. Bill C-69 The claim: On social media and during both the English and French debates, Poilievre has said that the Liberals' Bill C-69, which allowed the federal government to look at the impact that resource development projects could have on climate change, blocked 16 projects and billions of dollars of investment. The facts: Many of the projects Poilievre points to were cancelled prior to the bill receiving royal assent in June 2019, or were halted by provincial governments. In the case of other projects, such as the Energy East pipeline, companies pulled the plug after concluding that economic conditions had changed and the projects were no longer viable. WATCH | Fact-checking what leaders said during the English-language debate: Fact-checking the federal leaders' debate 9 days ago Duration 2:27 NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh Housing Accelerator Fund The claim: On April 7, Singh pledged to double the Housing Accelerator Fund, a federal program for municipalities and Indigenous governments, and make it permanent. "The Liberal plan right now is to keep the Housing Accelerator Fund temporary. They're not going to make it permanent," he told reporters. The facts: The Housing Accelerator Fund was a Liberal campaign promise in the 2021 election. The Trudeau government followed up by including the program in its 2022 budget and then launched the fund in 2023. The $4 billion fund is currently scheduled to run until 2026-27, and its goal is to help build 100,000 new homes. On March 31, a week before Singh made his statement, Carney unveiled the Liberal Party's plan to increase the number of homes built in Canada, including boosting the Housing Accelerator Fund. "My government will not just keep it, we will reinforce it, including by publicly reporting on municipalities' progress to speed up permitting and approval timelines." Houses built The claim: During the French-language debate, Singh accused Poilievre of building only six houses when he was minister responsible for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) in 2015. The facts: While the CMHC did build only six non-profit or community housing units during that time, it also partnered with private companies in projects that built 3,742 non-profit homes as well as 506 co-ops, for a total of more than 4,000 homes. During the debate, however, Poilievre responded that he got 200,000 homes built while he was minister. That is also inaccurate. In 2015 nearly 200,000 homes were built across Canada, but the vast majority were built by private companies — not the government. WATCH | Fact-checking the math in the parties' platforms: Fact-checking the numbers in the parties' platforms 4 days ago Duration 3:57 Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet Border crossings The claim: On April 10, Blanchet told a news conference that professional human-smuggling networks had begun advertising packages that included a safe place in Canada to stay for two weeks. The facts: Under the Safe Third Country Agreement between Canada and the United States, refugee claimants who try to enter Canada from the U.S. are turned back at the border unless they qualify for an exemption. In 2022, the two countries signed an additional protocol that includes a provision that allows someone who has been in the U.S. to make an asylum claim in Canada without being turned back if they have been in the country for at least 14 days. Asked by CBC News for the source of Blanchet's claim, the Bloc pointed to a December 2024 Radio-Canada story about irregular border crossings that mentions that "different networks" were helping refugee claimants who make it to Canada from the U.S. to hide for two weeks. However, the article does not refer to professional, for-profit, human-smuggling organizations, and the networks could include well-meaning volunteers or groups. Pipelines The claim: In both the English and French debates, Blanchet accused Carney of saying one thing in Quebec and another thing in the rest of Canada, and said the Liberal leader was prepared to force oil and gas pipelines through Quebec, against the will of Quebecers. The facts: While Carney's message on pipelines has shifted at various times, he has not said that he would force pipelines through Quebec against its will. In a speech in February in British Columbia, Carney said he would use federal government powers to build a trade corridor, clean-energy projects and energy infrastructure. He then told the CBC that he would accelerate approvals for pipelines in consultation with provinces and First Nations. A few days later, he told Radio-Canada that he would never impose a pipeline on Quebec. In April, when he appeared on the popular Radio-Canada television show Tout le monde en parle, Carney said the government would choose a few big projects and that those projects would need social acceptance. "Not necessarily pipelines, but maybe pipelines," he said. "We'll see."
Time of India
24-04-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Pierre Poilievre uses government 'Future Lives' report to target Liberals; here's what it actually entails
A federal government report, intended as a long-term strategic analysis, has become a political flashpoint, with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre seizing on its contents to attack the Liberal government's economic record. While Poilievre paints a "terrifying" picture of societal breakdown by 2040, a closer examination reveals a document designed to explore potential future scenarios, not predict inevitable outcomes. The report, "Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question," produced by Policy Horizons, a government foresight organization, explores a scenario where downward social mobility becomes more prevalent. 5 5 Next Stay Playback speed 1x Normal Back 0.25x 0.5x 1x Normal 1.5x 2x 5 5 / Skip Ads by by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Play War Thunder now for free War Thunder Play Now Undo It posits a future where traditional pathways to advancement, like post-secondary education, become less reliable, and economic disparities widen. Poilievre, however, has translated this nuanced analysis into a stark warning against a fourth Liberal term, claiming it forecasts "a total meltdown, a societal breakdown." Live Events The reality, as outlined by Policy Horizons, is far more complex. The report is a thought experiment, a tool for policymakers to consider potential challenges and opportunities arising from shifting social and economic trends. It's not a prediction, but rather a framework for strategic planning. The report explores a future where factors like artificial intelligence, housing affordability, and changing labour markets could impact social mobility. It considers both potential negative outcomes, such as increased economic insecurity and social stratification, and potential positive adaptations, like a shift towards alternative economic models and a redefinition of "prosperity." "It is not a forecast nor a commentary on current or future policies," emphasized Mila Roy, a spokesperson for Policy Horizons, in a statement to CBC News. "Thinking through possible disruptions when developing policies, programs and strategies could help seize opportunities, navigate impacts and minimize risks." The report's authors explicitly state that the scenario presented is "neither the desired nor the preferred future," but a plausible one. They acknowledge that the future may not be as dire as the scenario described, but stress the importance of exploring potential challenges to inform policy development.
