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Ukraine watches closely as Poland faces polarizing presidential run-off
Ukraine watches closely as Poland faces polarizing presidential run-off

Yahoo

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Ukraine watches closely as Poland faces polarizing presidential run-off

Poland's presidential race has never seen a first-round winner with so many reasons to worry, the far right so emboldened, and Ukraine so central to the campaign. The June 1 run-off between Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Platform (PO) and Karol Nawrocki, backed by Law and Justice (PiS), will likely reshape not only Poland's domestic political balance but also its approach to Ukraine. And the clash will be tight: in a first-round that saw a record 67.3% turnout, Trzaskowski secured 31.4% of the vote and Nawrocki 29.5%. Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland emerged as one of Kyiv's staunchest allies – sending weapons, sheltering millions of refugees, and rallying Western support. But over time, political tensions, economic fatigue, and disputes over grain imports and historical memory have strained the relationship. "These elections are crucial to Ukraine because they will either end the electoral cycle in Poland or open a new one,' Ukrainian political analyst Yevhen Mahda told the Kyiv Independent. 'And amid global turmoil, we need a stable, friendly Poland." The first-round results have been described as a "yellow card" for the ruling coalition that has governed Poland since 2023 under Prime Minister Donald Tusk. If outgoing President Andrzej Duda is succeeded by Nawrocki, whom he endorsed, Civic Platform will face regular obstruction through presidential vetoes. Although the Polish president holds limited executive power, he plays a key role in foreign affairs and serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Polish presidents have historically been particularly active in shaping eastern policy. "The past three years have shown that it is politicians who set the temperature of relations between our nations," said Zbigniew Parafianowicz, a journalist and author of "Poland at War," which examines Polish-Ukrainian policy at the outset of Russia's invasion. "Neither candidate will work wonders for Ukraine, but Kyiv has good reason to pay close attention." Traditionally divided between the pro-European liberal PO and the conservative nationalist PiS, Poland's political scene has long been vulnerable to populist and anti-establishment forces. This time, it was the far right that surged to unprecedented strength and could now determine the outcome. Slawomir Mentzen, of the economically libertarian and socially conservative Confederation Party, came third with 14.8% of the vote. Although left-wing candidates Adrian Zandberg, Magdalena Biejat, and Joanna Senyszyn received a combined 10.2%, Mentzen is now widely seen as the election's kingmaker. In a bid to win over Mentzen's electorate, both candidates agreed to be interviewed on his YouTube channel, and Nawrocki signed a list of demands he put forward. Hoping to capture some of those votes, Trzaskowski made a surprise visit to his pub, where they shared a beer. "Pro-Russian narratives don't sell here, but anti-Ukrainian (ones) do." Trzaskowski — a pro-European polyglot, son of a jazz musician, and senior figure in the Polish liberal establishment — faces a delicate balancing act: maintaining support from the center-left while reaching out to mostly young radical voters drawn to the Confederation. He has twice won the mayoral election in Warsaw but lost the presidential race in 2020 to Duda by just 2%, or 422,000 votes. Mentzen has repeatedly criticized Poland's support for Ukraine, opposing military aid and refugee assistance while promoting a nationalist narrative that frames Ukrainians as economic and cultural threats. He conditioned his sympathies in the second round on a promise not to send Polish troops to Ukraine and to oppose Ukraine's NATO membership. "There's a rise in anti-Ukrainian sentiment — not just on the far right, but also in the mainstream electorate," said political analyst and president of the Batory Foundation Edwin Bendyk. "It's driven by societal fatigue with the war next door, housing competition in big cities, and communication failures on both sides. Pro-Russian narratives don't sell here, but anti-Ukrainian (ones) do." It remains so despite positive developments such as the resumption of the long-stalled exhumation process of victims of the Volyn Massacre in the Ukrainian village of Puznyky, marking a symbolic step forward in addressing painful chapters of shared history, or Poland's continued support of Kyiv's defense needs and arms transit. Another far-right fringe politician, Grzegorz Braun who campaigned against what he called the "Ukrainization" of Poland, came fourth with 6.3% of the vote. The man who had earlier caused an international scandal by putting out Hanukkah candles with a fire extinguisher in the Polish Parliament, tore down a Ukrainian flag from the town hall in Bielsko-Biala during the campaign. Nawrocki, previously a little-known director of the Institute of National Remembrance, openly embraced much of the far right's platform during the campaign. He pledged to lower taxes, reject what he called the EU's "sick" climate policies, and end what he described as Ukraine's "indecent" treatment of Poland. He is officially not a member of PiS and positions himself as an independent candidate, not responsible for the policies of the party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski. "Nawrocki is no Duda," said Bendyk. "He's a nationalist, not a conservative. His victory would likely slow Ukraine's integration with the West." Parafianowicz, in turn, called Nawrocki — who briefly met with Donald Trump during a U.S. visit — a "Trumpian politician" who will likely try to align with the former president's agenda. In a move unprecedented for the U.S., Trump sent his Director of Homeland Security Kristi Noem to support Nawrocki in the final days of the race. "If the most pro-Ukrainian candidate calls Ukraine a 'buffer zone,' that's a clear sign something has gone wrong." There have been ups and downs in Polish-Ukrainian relations since the start of the full-scale invasion – from the emotional embraces between Duda and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to mutual accusations and perceived insults. While the PiS-PO rivalry dominates Poland's brutal election campaign, it has no obvious impact on Ukraine policy — but that doesn't mean Kyiv isn't watching closely. "If the most pro-Ukrainian candidate calls Ukraine a 'buffer zone,' that's a clear sign something has gone wrong," Ukrainian historian and publicist Wasyl Rasevych told the Kyiv Independent, referring to a term Trzaskowski used repeatedly during the campaign. "Russian propaganda undermines EU unity and spreads instability in countries aiding Ukraine, and Poland may unwittingly be playing into that scenario," he added. Ahead of the vote, Polish authorities uncovered a foreign-funded disinformation campaign on Facebook and cyberattacks targeting government parties. Officials suspect Russia, which is also blamed for a 2024 arson attack on Warsaw's Marywilska shopping center, viewing it as part of a wider hybrid warfare strategy to destabilize Ukraine's allies. While Russian meddling is real, some argue its impact is overstated. "We've inflated the idea of 'Russian influence' so much," said Parafianowicz, "that we've lost sight of proportion." The true sources of discontent, he argues, lie in domestic politics on both sides of the border. According to Parafianowicz, Polish political elites' disappointment with Zelensky is "an open secret." He cites the Ukrainian president's refusal to acknowledge that the missile that killed two Poles in Przewodow was Ukrainian and his remarks about Poland at the UN in 2023, as examples of what he sees as a growing disregard for Warsaw's leadership. "Ukraine would welcome a winner who truly pursues deeper cooperation with the EU and Germany." Despite these frictions, Poland and Ukraine remain strategic allies. Both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have pledged to increase defense spending, strengthen the Polish military, maintain a hardline stance on the Belarusian border, and continue supporting Ukraine militarily. But the key difference lies in their vision of international alliances — and their willingness to sideline Ukraine's interests. "The Polish right is afraid of Ukrainian economic competition and Kyiv's political alignment with Berlin," said Rasevych. "Ukraine would welcome a winner who truly pursues deeper cooperation with the EU and Germany." Trzaskowski appears to offer that option and promises to gain more leverage in the EU, together with heavyweight politicians such as Tusk or Polish hawkish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. But with traditional alliances shaken by unpredictable Trump, no one can foresee which cards will turn out lucky. "The idea that Poles and Ukrainians truly understand each other is a dangerous myth," Mahda said. "Ukraine needs both a Plan A and a Plan B — prepared for either Trzaskowski or Nawrocki, while staying focused on real issues in defense, energy, and the economy." Read also: 'A serious crisis' — pro-Russian leader in Bosnia threatening peace in the Balkans We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.

Polish president presents Ukraine's Defence Intelligence chief with one of Poland's highest honours for foreigners
Polish president presents Ukraine's Defence Intelligence chief with one of Poland's highest honours for foreigners

Yahoo

time3 days ago

  • General
  • Yahoo

Polish president presents Ukraine's Defence Intelligence chief with one of Poland's highest honours for foreigners

President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda has presented Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), with the Gold Officer's Cross of the Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland – one of the highest state awards available to foreign nationals. Source: Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Quote: "For outstanding contribution to the development of international cooperation and partnership connecting the Republic of Poland with other states and nations, President of Poland Andrzej Duda has presented Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, with one of the highest honours the Republic of Poland can bestow on foreigners – the Gold Officer's Cross of the Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland." Details: The award was presented on behalf of the Polish president by Colonel Dominik Duda, Deputy Head of Poland's Intelligence Agency. During the ceremony, he stressed the importance of the Polish-Ukrainian partnership in the context of Russia's war against Ukraine. Polish officials stated that the role played by Ukraine's military intelligence in countering Russian aggression is a key factor in ensuring the security of the entire European continent. Quote from Budanov: "I sincerely thank President Andrzej Duda for his trust and willingness to recognise the close Polish-Ukrainian relationship! Today's war is a fight for freedom, for our principles and the values of a united Europe. Only together can we resist the Russian horde and overcome this age-old threat to Poland and Ukraine. Our nations will always stand as one stronghold in the struggle for a peaceful future without war." More details: President Duda also presented the Knight's Cross of the Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland to Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine. For reference: The Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland is presented to foreign nationals who have made a significant contribution to fostering good neighbourly relations and international cooperation. Previous recipients include former US President Ronald Reagan, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, UN Secretary-General António Guterres and former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!

Polish prosecutors charge man who planned to help in Zelenskyy assassination attempt
Polish prosecutors charge man who planned to help in Zelenskyy assassination attempt

Yahoo

time20-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

Polish prosecutors charge man who planned to help in Zelenskyy assassination attempt

Polish authorities have indicted a man accused of planning to assist Russian foreign intelligence in preparing a possible assassination attempt on Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Source: Reuters, citing a statement from Polish prosecutors, as reported by European Pravda Details: The man, identified as Paweł K., was arrested in April 2024 following a joint Polish-Ukrainian investigation. Polish prosecutors formally charged the man on Tuesday 20 May. He faces up to eight years in prison. Information obtained during the investigation indicates that the man had expressed a willingness to cooperate with Russian military intelligence and had established contact with Russians directly involved in the war against Ukraine. "The activities were to help, among other things, in the planning by the Russian special services of a possible assassination attempt on the life of ... the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy," the statement said. The prosecutors reported that Pawel K's task was to collect and provide information about security at Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport in southeastern Poland. Background: On 12 May, a London court handed down sentences to six Bulgarian citizens convicted of spying for Russia in the UK. The BBC reported that three of the Bulgarian citizens had attended at least one event in Parliament in the past, including a Brexit-related discussion in 2016. Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!

Polish protesters end blockade at Ukraine's border after court ruling
Polish protesters end blockade at Ukraine's border after court ruling

Yahoo

time14-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Polish protesters end blockade at Ukraine's border after court ruling

Polish truckers lifted the blockade at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk checkpoint on the Ukrainian border, Ukraine's State Border Guard said on May 13. The protesters ended the blockade after the Lublin Court of Appeal upheld Dorohusk Mayor Wojciech Sawa's decision to ban the rallies on May 8. The blockade ended at 10:30 p.m. local time. Truck traffic in both directions is now moving as usual, according to Ukraine's State Border Guard's statement. Polish truckers started protests at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk checkpoint on May 12 at 4 p.m. local time. The protesters limited truck passage through the largest cargo customs post on the Ukrainian-Polish border to one vehicle per hour in each direction. Overnight on May 13, the Yahodyn customs post processed only eight trucks. Gasoline and gas tankers were allowed to pass along with other trucks, one truck per hour. Some trucks have been waiting in line for over a day, Ukraine's State Border Guard said. The organizers presented the latest protest as an effort to draw attention to the "plight of transport companies and the threat to thousands of jobs." Over the past few years, Polish truckers, farmers, and other protesters have launched months-long blockades at the Polish-Ukrainian border, largely aimed against Ukrainian agricultural imports and the EU's lifting of most duties on Ukrainian imports in 2022. We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.

Polish protesters to resume blockade at Ukraine's border, Ukrainian Border Guard warns
Polish protesters to resume blockade at Ukraine's border, Ukrainian Border Guard warns

Yahoo

time12-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

Polish protesters to resume blockade at Ukraine's border, Ukrainian Border Guard warns

Polish truckers plan to restrict freight traffic at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk checkpoint on the Ukrainian border, Ukraine's State Border Guard said on May 12. The demonstrators will allow one vehicle to enter and another to exit every hour in a protest that could last for four months, Ukrainian border guards said, citing the Polish side. "Buses and vehicles transporting humanitarian aid will pass unhindered," Ukraine's border guards said. Over the past few years, Polish truckers, farmers, and other protesters have launched months-long blockades at the Polish-Ukrainian border, largely aimed against Ukrainian agricultural imports and the EU's lifting of most duties on Ukrainian imports in 2022. The organizers presented the latest protest as an effort to draw attention to the "plight of transport companies and the threat to thousands of jobs." At noon, Ukrainian border guards reported that traffic was flowing normally. Just over two hours later, Rafal Mekler, a politician from the far-right Confederation party, posted on X: "We are already in Dorohusk. The border is at a standstill." Mekler shared pictures of himself with trucks and police vehicles in the background. The mayor of Dorohusk previously banned the blockade at the border crossing, arguing it is a critical infrastructure facility. The District Court in Lublin later overturned this decision. Read also: Tusk says Russia ordered 2024 arson attack on Warsaw shopping centre We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.

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