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Express Tribune
21-05-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Economy posts surprise growth of 2.7%
Development of SMEs, youth entrepreneurship, and rigorous economic diplomacy would be vital for the quick revival of the economy, regional expert Dr Mehmoodul Hassan Khan said. photo: file Listen to article The government on Tuesday claimed that the economy grew by 2.7% in the current fiscal year, driven by an unexpected 4.8% growth in the industrial sector — despite earlier concerns over contractionary policies and the high cost of doing business. Throughout the year, the government had reported a decline in electricity generation. However, it now claims a 39.3% increase in gross value addition in the electricity sector. Similarly, the construction sector, previously struggling due to high taxation and low demand, was reported to have grown by 6.6%. On the other hand, major crops saw a drop in output: wheat production declined by 9%, rice by 1.4% and cotton by a significant 31%. Despite the surprising growth claim, the 2.7% GDP increase is nearly equal to the population growth rate of 2.6%, suggesting that poverty and unemployment may have worsened. Moreover, the government missed even its modest growth target of 3.6%. The 113th meeting of the National Accounts Committee approved the provisional GDP growth rate of 2.68% for fiscal year 2024-25, stated the Ministry of Planning after the meeting. Planning Secretary Awais Manzur Sumra chaired the NAC meeting. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb would officially launch the economic growth figure on June 1. The planning ministry further said that the NAC approved the provisional growth rates in agriculture, industry and services sector. It said that the agriculture sector grew marginally at 0.6%, but the industrial sector grew 4.8% and the services sector by 2.9%. The 2.7% growth rate can only be attained, if Pakistan's economy grows at a pace of 5.3% in the April-June quarter of this fiscal year, said an official on the condition of anonymity. The economic growth in the third quarter was 2.4%. The per capita income is now claimed to have increased to $1,824 and the size of the economy in dollar terms is $411 billion, said the Ministry of Planning. It said that on the basis of the latest figures of the national accounts aggregates for FY 2024-25, the overall size of the economy stands at Rs114.7 trillion or $410.96 billion as compared to $371.7 billion last year. It underlined that the series of per capita income from 2016-17 onwards will be revised after the receipt of backward and forward projections of population from the sources on the basis of the 2023 Population Census. Agriculture sector The NAC approved that important crops have declined by 13.5% due to a decrease in the production of wheat from 31.8 million metric tons to 29 million tons. The claim of 29 million tons wheat production was far higher than the Ministry of Finance's own projections of around 26 million tons expected production this year. The Planning Ministry said that the production of maize decreased by 15.4% to 8.24 million tons, rice output fell 1.4% to 9.7 million tons and sugarcane output decreased 4% to 84.24 million tons. The cotton crop sustained a major hit with a 31% dip in production. The cotton bales decreased from 10.22 million bales to 7.1 million bales. But the Planning Ministry claimed that despite a 17% reduction in the production of grams, other crops have posted a provisional growth of 4.8% due to double-digit growth in the production of potato, onion, mango and sesame. While cotton ginning & miscellaneous components have declined by 19%, livestock, forestry and fishing have posted provisional growth rates of 4.72%, 3.03% and 1.42%, it added. Industrial growth The Planning Ministry claimed that in this fiscal year, "industry has shown a growth of 4.77% provisionally". Despite an increase in the production of coal (2.84%), the mining & quarrying industry contracted by 3.4% because of a decrease in production of natural gas by 7.05%), crude oil output decreased by 14.7%. The planning ministry said that large scale manufacturing also witnessed a negative growth of 1.53%, with mixed trend in the production of various groups. "Electricity, gas and water supply industry has shown a positive growth of 28.9% primarily due to low base effect of FY 2023-24, i.e., -19.86% as well as increase in output of WAPDA & companies", claimed the Planning Ministry. Construction industry increased by 6.61% due to increase in construction-related expenditures by the private sector and general government, it added. The growth in the construction sector is based on the claim that the government will spend Rs1.1 trillion on development in this fiscal year, which is untrue. Likewise, the electricity growth claim is based on the assumption that Rs1.2 trillion power subsidies will be utilized in this fiscal year. Services Sector The planning ministry said that the services sector has also shown a growth of 2.91% in 2024-25 with positive contributions from all the constituents. Wholesale and retail trade has witnessed a modest growth of 0.14% because of slower output growth in agriculture and manufacturing. Transport and storage industry has increased by 2.2% because of an increase in output of water, air and road transport, it added. Information & Communication has grown by 6.5% due to increase in output of computer programming and consultancy activities 24%). Slower rate of inflation and low base effect has resulted into positive growth rates in Finance & Insurance and Public Administration and Social Security industries at 3.22% and 9.92% respectively, it added, Further, both Education and Human health and Social Work industries have posted positive growth of 4.43% and 3.71% respectively, said the planning ministry.
Express Tribune
13-05-2025
- General
- Express Tribune
Engaged mothers: finding the missing link in girls' education
Listen to article Since the 1990s, Pakistan has introduced various initiatives, action plans and structural reforms in the education sector, with a dedicated focus on promoting girls' education. While these programmes have yielded progress, expanding school coverage, improving instruction and delivery and enhancing facilities, one crucial question remains: why have decades of efforts not translated into long-lasting, transformative results? Despite advancements, the country continues to grapple with high numbers of out-of-school girls and even greater female learning poverty. As of 2022-23, around 13.71 million girls remain out of school, while the female literacy rate from the 2023 Population Census stands at just 52.5 per cent, indicating that nearly half of the female population is illiterate. These dismal figures not only reflect lost potential but also hinder women's ability to contribute as functional members of society. While external factors like the pandemic, persistent floods, climate-induced disasters, growing poverty and instability have exacerbated the crisis, deeply entrenched sociocultural norms remain a significant barrier. The oft-cited reasons for low female enrollment include poverty and societal perceptions. According to the World Bank, girls from low-income families are 52 per cent less likely to attend school than their wealthier counterparts. To address this, the government has introduced cash transfer programmes to incentivise enrollments and recently initiated school meal programmes in several districts. However, the more complex challenge lies in shifting sociocultural norms and beliefs. Many families remain disinterested in girls' education beyond the primary level, considering it unnecessary due to socially designated gender roles, where girls are expected to be caregivers and homemakers while boys assume the role of breadwinners. Addressing this requires more than community engagement — it demands systemic and societal change. One powerful yet often overlooked solution is engaging mothers. Research has consistently shown that educated mothers lead to educated daughters and positively influence overall learning quality. A growing body of literature further suggests that a mother's agency plays a decisive role in her daughter's education. While agency stems from multiple factors, financial empowerment is among the most critical. This academic premise was reinforced by real-world evidence when Pakistan Alliance for Girls Education (PAGE) implemented an intervention for highly vulnerable Afghan refugee communities across eight districts, including Lakki Marwat, Haripur, Peshawar, Nowshera, Mansehra, Rawalpindi, Quetta and Karachi. The Action for Gender Equity in Education project provided an inclusive learning environment, foundational knowledge and essential skills for Afghan girls. However, the initiative went a step further by targeting the community as a whole, engaging women — mostly mothers — in skill-building programmes, including vocational training, digital marketing and language proficiency courses. The impact was profound. A total of 794 students (including boys) were enrolled, while 353 Afghan women and girls participated in the bootcamp and 611 graduated from the language and cultural programme. Language barriers often limit Afghan women's market access and render low self-confidence, so the language programmes were aimed at removing these hurdles. Similarly, the marketing bootcamp included exhibitions to provide hands-on experience in sales and business operations. To measure the intervention's effectiveness, a sample of girls and women was tracked. All participants reported an increase in decision-making power at the household level. More strikingly, 58 per cent of those who were unemployed before the bootcamp started generating income post-intervention, with 80 per cent of all graduates earning some form of income. Among language and cultural programme graduates, 98 per cent reported increased self-confidence — a crucial factor in fostering agency. A particularly revealing outcome emerged when mothers were surveyed post-programme. Those who participated in the marketing bootcamp and language programmes showed a significantly higher recognition of the importance of children's education. Ninety per cent of involved mothers reported actively supporting their children's education at home, compared to just 15 per cent of uninvolved (neutral) mothers. Furthermore, 86 per cent of engaged mothers observed improvements in their children's academic performance and attitude, compared to only 30 per cent among neutral mothers. Perhaps most notably, 76 per cent of participating mothers said they would advocate for their children's education in the face of family restrictions, compared to a mere 13 per cent of uninvolved mothers. These findings are even more remarkable considering the communities in question — ones marked by extreme poverty, displacement and conflict. If such interventions can yield significant results under these circumstances, they can be equally, if not more, effective in other marginalised communities. Policymakers must recognise this missing link in education promotion. While spreading awareness about the importance of girls' education is essential, direct engagement with mothers is far more impactful in countering sociocultural resistance. A holistic approach to girls' education is more urgent than ever. We have spent years increasing the number of schools, expanding classrooms, introducing cash transfers, and even launching school meal programmes. While these efforts are necessary, they remain incomplete without parental engagement, particularly that of mothers. When we empower mothers, we influence entire households, including fathers and other male family members. A truly transformative education strategy must recognise that an educated, financially empowered mother is not just an asset to her family — she is the key to breaking the cycle of illiteracy and poverty for generations to come.
Indian Express
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Indian Express
As Modi govt announces caste census, how a UPA bid collapsed, amid claims of ‘inaccuracies'
The surprise announcement by the Modi government on Wednesday to include caste enumeration along with the next Census takes away a big talking point from the Congress. In pushing for a caste census, Rahul Gandhi repeatedly brought up the Socio Economic and Caste Census (SECC) exercise that the Congress-led UPA-2 government conducted during its tenure, to say the BJP was afraid of releasing its findings. So what was the SECC, and what happened to it? 2010 About a year into its second term, the UPA government was taken by surprise when its ally RJD and Samajwadi Party along with the JD(U) raised the demand for a caste headcount along with the 2011 decadal Census. The Congress and BJP, then the main Opposition party, did not have a clear-cut position on caste census although a section of the OBC leaders within the parties were in favour. The Home Ministry under P Chidambaram argued that including caste in the list of questions during the Census exercise would yield inaccurate results owing to logistical problems. 'Population Census is not the ideal instrument for collection of details on caste. The operational difficulties are so many that there is a grave danger that the basic integrity of the Census data may be compromised and the fundamental population count itself could get distorted,' the Home Ministry told the Cabinet. But the socialist parties in the Hindi heartland — with OBCs as their main voter base — persisted with their demand. They also vociferously opposed the women's reservation Bill in its then form as part of this. As they looked for ways to resurrect their OBC politics, for the heartland parties it also made sense to seek caste and community quota within the women's reservation Bill. Under pressure, the government agreed to a debate on caste census in Parliament, though some ministers remained opposed. Seeking to broadbase its support beyond Hindutva, the BJP, however, had by then veered around to favouring a caste census. Over May 6 and 7, 2010, a discussion was held in Parliament on the issue. While it reflected the divisions within the party, a majority of the leaders who spoke, including those from the BJP, favoured a caste census. This prompted the government to review its stand. The Home Ministry, which was opposed to a caste-based census, also nuanced its position and argued that a caste-based headcount can be done — but only after tabulation of Census figures — during the biometric capture phase, when photographing, fingerprinting and iris mapping of citizens for the National Population Register (NPR) would be done. On May 27, the UPA government finally referred the contentious issue to a Group of Ministers (GoM) headed by then Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee. The GoM too was sharply divided, and ended up seeking the opinion of all political parties. Most of the parties including the BJP backed a caste-based headcount. That September, the decision to hold a caste headcount was taken. 2011 In June 2011, the Ministry of Rural Development began the SECC exercise. The study of the socio-economic status of close to 25 crore rural and urban households had three components, divided under three separate authorities but under the overall coordination of the Department of Rural Development. Census in rural areas was conducted by the Rural Development Ministry, while the study in urban areas was held under the administrative jurisdiction of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation. Overall, the caste census was under the administrative control of the Ministry of Home Affairs: Registrar General of India (RGI) and Census Commissioner of India. But the enumeration of households and tabulation of the data were plagued by delays and missed multiple deadlines. While the enumeration was finally completed by the end of 2012, the data was not ready till the end of 2013. A UPA minister told The Indian Express t hat the provisional data was ready by September-October 2013, but with general elections due soon, a call was taken to let the next government release the data. The UPA lost power in the May 2014 polls, with the Modi-led NDA government coming to power. 2015-16 After saying that the data would take time to compile, the Modi government in July 2015 released provisional data from the SECC for rural India, while holding back the caste data, saying it had not been finalised. In July 2016, the government told the Lok Sabha in a written reply that it 'had directed the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner to process the caste data and hand over the details of the castes / tribe returned in the enumeration to the proposed Expert Group to be constituted by the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment and the Ministry of Tribal Affairs to classify these caste/tribe returns'. 2018 The government told the Lok Sabha in March that 'certain errors have been observed during processing of the caste data'. The Home Ministry said the caste data had been handed over to the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner for processing. In August, the government told the Rajya Sabha that the processing of caste data was taking time due to certain design issues at the stage of data collection. The reply said the planned Expert Group had not been set up. 2021 In reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha, the Home Ministry said: 'The raw caste data was provided to the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment for classification and categorisation… As informed by (the ministry), there is no proposal to release the caste data at this stage.' In September, the government, in an affidavit filed in the Supreme Court, effectively ruled out holding a caste census that year, saying 'exclusion of information regarding any other caste', apart from SCs and STs, 'from the purview of census is a conscious policy decision'. As for the SECC, the affidavit said there were 'technical flaws' in data collection. It said the exercise had thrown up 46 lakh different castes, and that 'the total numbers cannot be exponentially high to this extent'. The Centre said that an analysis of the data showed 'that the caste enumeration… was fraught with mistakes and inaccuracies' and 'is not reliable'.
