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Business Standard

Canada polls 2025: What today's vote means for Indian immigrants, students

Canada heads to the polls today, and for hundreds of thousands of Indian nationals either living in the country or planning to move, the outcome could be crucial. Immigration policies have a direct impact on students, workers and families. As of late 2023, Canada was hosting around 1,040,985 international students, of which 278,860 were Indian nationals, accounting for nearly 27% of the total. The growth has been sharp—from just 31,920 Indian students in 2015. Employment figures show a similar trend. More than 26,000 Indian nationals were working in Canada in 2023 under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, mainly in low-wage sectors. Many Indian graduates also moved to work permits through the Post-Graduation Work Permit Programme, helping strengthen Canada's skilled workforce. 'What's most concerning right now is the slowdown in investment and business, as well as the drop in local business valuation. Everything has slowed down due to high interest rates and lower appraisals of property and business. Many insiders are facing severe financial pressure—similar to the 2008 crisis,' said Varun Singh, managing director at XIPHIAS Immigration, speaking to Business Standard. 'Visa rejections based on political background are neither right nor ethical. Families are suffering because of the high rejection rates. Just look at the numbers—visa cancellations by the Canadian embassy have crossed 2 million,' he added. Pierre Poilievre, leader of the opposition Conservative Party, has said he would structure immigration policies to match new capacity in housing, healthcare, and jobs. The current Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has strong links with the Century Initiative, a think tank pushing for Canada's population to grow to 100 million by 2100. Carney's predecessor, Justin Trudeau, had immigration policies heavily influenced by the Century Initiative. So far, Carney has not given any strong indication that he would reduce immigration levels. 'If Carney wins the election, Indians aspiring to immigrate to Canada would find it easier to do so. On the other hand, the crises of expensive housing, high cost of living and lack of jobs would get further exacerbated,' Darshan Maharaja, a Canada-based immigration analyst told Business Standard. He also warned that individual Indians should carefully assess their financial prospects before deciding to move. Current immigration targets Until recently, Canada's Immigration Levels Plan mainly focused on permanent residents. In October 2024, for the first time, the government introduced targets for temporary residents as well. Liberal leader Mark Carney has acknowledged the strain on infrastructure. 'Caps on immigration will remain in place until we've expanded housing,' he said in a recent interview. The Liberals have proposed keeping permanent resident admissions below 1% of Canada's population beyond 2027. The current target is 395,000 permanent residents for 2025, which is less than 1% of the projected population of 41.5 million. This points towards a continuation of current trends. At the same time, Poilievre has linked immigration numbers to infrastructure growth. In January 2024, he said, 'We'll bring it back to sustainable levels like we had under the Harper government.' Between 2006 and 2015, Canada admitted between 247,000 and 281,000 permanent residents annually. It is unclear whether Poilievre would stick to these numbers or adjust them based on today's larger population. His party has repeatedly said that immigration growth should not outpace the availability of housing, jobs, or healthcare. Temporary foreign workers and international students The number of temporary residents has been a growing concern for both major parties. As of January 1, 2025, Canada had around 3.02 million temporary residents, making up roughly 7.27% of the population. The Liberal Party has proposed reducing this share to under 5% by the end of 2027, with steps including: < Adding temporary resident targets to immigration plans < Placing caps on study permit applications < Restricting access to post-graduation and spousal open work permits < Reducing net new temporary arrivals by 150,000 between 2025 and 2026 Meanwhile, Poilievre has criticised the Temporary Foreign Worker Program sharply. 'We will crack down on fraud and dramatically reduce the number of temporary foreign workers and foreign students,' he said during a campaign event. The Conservative Party proposes: < Requiring union Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) for hiring foreign workers < Limiting temporary workers mainly to agriculture or small towns with shortages < Requiring criminal background checks for all international students Currently, police certificates are only asked for if an officer requests them during the study permit process. Economic immigration and employment The Liberal Party supports economic migration and promises to 'revitalise' the Global Skills Strategy to attract highly skilled workers, particularly from the United States. It also plans to fast-track the recognition of foreign credentials, especially in healthcare and trades. Poilievre, in contrast, has spoken about a 'blue seal' national licensing standard that provinces could adopt to help immigrant healthcare workers get jobs faster. Impact on education Indian student numbers have fallen sharply, dropping by over 40% between 2023 and 2024, according to ICEF Monitor. Experts said this was largely due to Canada's real estate crisis, tighter visa rules, and tensions between New Delhi and Ottawa. However, there are signs of optimism. With US President Donald Trump taking a harder line on international students, Canada could regain its appeal for Indian students. Saurabh Arora, CEO of University Living, a global student housing marketplace, told Business Standard, 'First, we need to know who the next PM will be and whether it's a Liberal or Conservative government. Only then will we have clarity on future immigration policies. That said, with the significant contribution of Indians to Canada's economy—around CAD 13–14 billion annually from Indian students alone—India's importance cannot be ignored. Also, Punjabi is now the third-most spoken language in Canada.' Siddharth Iyer, COO of OneStep Global, said, 'Canada is a leading destination for international students, especially Indians. After the US, Canada has the largest intake of Indian students. They choose it because of its student-friendly policies, high-quality education, and ample work opportunities. Over the years, Indian students have built strong ties with Canadian institutions, and this is not set to change anytime soon.' As of the latest update to the CBC Poll Tracker, the Liberals were polling at 43.1%, compared to the Conservatives' 38.4%. The NDP had 8.3%, the BQ 5.8% nationally (25.4% in Quebec), the Greens 2.2%, and the People's Party 1.4%. It marks a striking turnaround for the Liberals, who were 24 points behind in January and are now ahead by 4.7 points. Numbers at a glance as per IRCC Annual Immigration Reports Permanent residents 2015: 39,340 Indians became permanent residents 2023: 139,715 Indians became permanent residents International students 2015: 31,920 Indian students held study permits 2023: 278,860 Indian students held study permits Temporary foreign workers 2015: 24,000 Indian nationals had Canadian work permits 2023: 64,000 Indian nationals had Canadian work permits The rapid growth over the past decade has been driven largely by policies under the Trudeau government. However, rising concerns about housing and infrastructure have already pushed the Canadian government to announce lower immigration targets starting late 2024.