31-03-2025
A third Trump term is never going to happen. Why does he keep bringing it up?
In a recent interview, President Donald Trump said he is open to serving a third term and that there are methods to make it happen. Like most of the things that the president says and does, Trump's statement made one group of people very angry and another group of people very happy.
For those who study politics, Trump's comments have also raised a few very fundamental questions (and here, the word "fundamental" means "profoundly stupid"). Among those questions:
Is a third presidential term constitutional?
Could this really happen?
The answer to both of those questions is no.
I'd like to end this column here. But Trump said a thing, and now we have to talk about it. That's the law now, I think.
Assuming the Constitution matters − and it does − the language of the 25th Amendment stands in the way of the president running for a third term: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice." If there is a loophole here, it's the fact that the 25th Amendment does not technically prevent a person from serving a third term if they are not actually elected.
So, how does someone become president without actually being elected? One suggestion is that Trump could seek election to the vice presidency and have the presidential candidate (J.D. Vance, for example), step down upon taking office, making Vice President Trump the new president. But the 12th Amendment to the Constitution stands in the way of this strategy by prohibiting anyone who is constitutionally ineligible to the Office of the President from serving as vice president.
Bottom line: Trump can't run for vice president either.
So, what exactly would it take for a two-term president to get a third term without (a) being elected to the presidency and (b) without being elected to the vice presidency? As I see it, there is only one conceivable path (and please note that here, "conceivable" means "ridiculous").
The Presidential Succession Act says that in the case of a vacancy in the Office of the President and Vice President, the Speaker of the House assumes the presidency. All that has to happen for a Trump presidency is for Republicans to (1) win the 2028 presidential race, (2) hold the House or Representatives, (3) elect Trump as Speaker and (4) have the newly elected president and vice president resign. Trump doesn't even have to be a member of the House to be elected as Speaker, so other than those four steps, it's pretty cut and dry.
Even if a complicated strategy like this could work in theory, it's extremely unlikely and bordering on delusional to think that it would work in practice. Would the courts ignore the clear intent of the 25th Amendment? Why would a newly elected president resign? Could the new president trust his or her vice president to follow through on their end of the bargain? Who would the president and vice president even be? Why would voters go along with such a plan?
Bottom line: It's not going to happen.
Given that a third term is not a realistic possibility, what explains President Trump's decision to float the prospect of continuing in office? The most obvious explanation is that Trump is trolling the media because he finds it personally hilarious.
Another, more politically strategic explanation is that the president wants to change the conversation, and a week talking about a third Trump term serves the administration a lot better than another week talking about the Signal Chat leak. In either case, Trump is getting what he wanted, as the cable stations have gone wall to wall with very serious discussion about a very unserious idea.
Letters: US security isn't a joke. With Signal blunder, Trump's team acts like it is.
Trump might find the third-term media cycle both funny and politically convenient, but one thing that is being overlooked is that Democrats might be the ones laughing in the long run.
President Trump will be 82 in 2028. At best, he's good for two more terms after this one, maybe three if he is one of those "super-agers" that we heard so much about during the Biden era.
The silver lining for Democrats in all this is that Barack Obama (remember him?) is only 63 years old. While it is true that primary voters these days prefer candidates who are in their late 70s or early 80s, Democrats may decide to overlook Obama's relative youth given his two terms of presidential experience. Given his age, Obama could potentially be elected to a third, fourth, and fifth term and still be younger than either Trump or Biden at the start of their most recent terms.
Never-Trump Republicans can get in the game, too, by floating a third term for George W. Bush. At the very least, they can point out that Bush's close relationship with the Cheney family demonstrates his ability to work with Democrats.
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Trump's comments have given Democrats a rare opportunity to out-troll the troller-in-chief. If Democrats embrace the idea, Republicans could (and should!) reject Trump's third-term idea as the impractical, unconstitutional proposal that it is. If Republicans instead double down on Trump's third-term comments, Democrats could take them up on it and open the door to another Obama term. It's a win-win for Democrats.
The real problem for Democrats may be convincing Barack Obama to seek a third term. By all accounts, he's enjoying his post-presidential life. In that case, Democrats would be forced to go back to the drawing board and find a Democratic governor who ran as a moderate and demonstrated the ability to win Republican crossover votes.
Second look at Bill Clinton?
Mack Mariani is a professor of political science at Xavier University who lives in Wyoming. Contact him on X: @mackmariani. The views and opinions expressed by the author are solely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of his employer, or more importantly, his wife.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Trump third term troll creates an opening for Democrats | Opinion
