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Straits Times
14-05-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
What are the outlines and risks of a possible Ukraine peace deal?
A municipal worker stands in front of an apartment building heavily damaged a day before, by a Russian air strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the frontline town of Kostiantynivka, in Donetsk region, Ukraine May 8, 2025. Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS What are the outlines and risks of a possible Ukraine peace deal? Russia and Ukraine say they want to talk about peace so what are the contours of any potential peace deal - and what are the dangers? SECURITY GUARANTEE Ukraine, which was subject to a full-scale invasion in 2022 and saw Russia annex Crimea in 2014, says it needs security guarantees from the major powers - primarily the United States. It wants more than the 1994 Budapest Memorandum under which Russia, the U.S. and Britain agreed to respect Ukrainian sovereignty and refrain from the use of force against Ukraine. Under that deal, the powers simply promised to go to the United Nations Security Council if Ukraine was attacked. The problem, say sources involved in the discussions, is that any security guarantee that has teeth would lock the West into a potential future war with Russia - and any security deal without teeth would leave Ukraine exposed. Under draft proposals for a possible peace settlement seen by Reuters, diplomats spoke of a "robust security guarantee", including possibly an Article 5-like agreement. Article 5 of the NATO treaty commits allies to defend each other in the event of an attack, though Ukraine is not a member of the alliance. As part of a failed 2022 deal, Ukraine would have agreed to permanent neutrality in return for security guarantees from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, and other nations including Belarus, Canada, Germany, Israel, Poland and Turkey, according to a draft seen by Reuters. But officials in Kyiv say agreeing to Ukrainian neutrality is a red line they will not cross. NATO AND NEUTRALITY Russia has repeatedly said that possible NATO membership for Kyiv was a cause of the war, is unacceptable and that Ukraine must be neutral - with no foreign bases. Zelenskiy has said it is not for Moscow to decide Ukraine's alliances. At the 2008 Bucharest summit, NATO leaders agreed that Ukraine and Georgia would one day become members. Ukraine in 2019 amended its constitution, committing to the path of full membership of NATO and the European Union. U.S. envoy General Keith Kellogg has said NATO membership for Ukraine is "off the table". President Donald Trump has said past U.S. support for Ukraine's membership of NATO was a cause of the war. In 2022, Ukraine and Russia discussed permanent neutrality. Russia wanted limits on the Ukrainian military, according to a copy of a potential agreement reviewed by Reuters. Ukraine staunchly opposes the idea of curbs to the size and capabilities of its armed forces. Russia has said it has no objections to Ukraine seeking EU membership, though some members of the bloc could oppose Kyiv's bid. TERRITORY Moscow controls about a fifth of Ukraine and says the territory is now formally part of Russia, a position most countries do not accept. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Russian forces control almost all of Luhansk, and more than 70% of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, according to Russian estimates. Russia also controls a sliver of Kharkiv region. In Putin's most detailed public proposals for peace, outlined in June 2024, he said Ukraine would have to withdraw from the entirety of those regions - so even from areas not currently under Russian control. Under a draft peace plan crafted by the Trump administration, the U.S. would de jure recognise Russian control of Crimea, and de facto recognise Russian control of Luhansk and parts of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Kherson. Ukraine would regain territory in Kharkiv region, while the U.S. would control and administer Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is currently controlled by Russia. Kyiv says that legally recognising Russian sovereignty over occupied areas is out of the question and would violate Ukraine's constitution, but that territorial matters could be discussed at talks once a ceasefire is in place. "The major issues here are the regions, the nuclear plant, it's how the Ukrainians are able to use the Dnieper River and get out to the ocean," Trump envoy Steve Witkoff told Breitbart News last week. SANCTIONS Russia wants Western sanctions lifted but is sceptical that they will be lifted soon. Even if the U.S. lifted sanctions, EU and other Western sanctions - such as those imposed by Australia, Britain, Canada and Japan - could remain for years to come. Ukraine wants the sanctions to remain in place. Reuters has reported that the U.S. government is studying ways it could ease sanctions on Russia's energy sector as part of a broad plan to enable Washington to deliver swift relief if Moscow agrees to end the Ukraine war. OIL AND GAS Trump has suggested that Putin, who leads the world's second largest oil exporter, might be more inclined to resolve the Ukraine war following a recent drop in oil prices, though the Kremlin said national interests trump oil prices. Still, some diplomats have speculated that the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia are seeking lower oil prices as part of a bigger grand bargain that involves issues from the Middle East to Ukraine. Earlier this month, Reuters reported that officials from Washington and Moscow have held discussions about the U.S. helping to revive Russian gas sales to Europe. CEASEFIRE European powers and Ukraine demand Russia agree to a ceasefire before talks but Moscow says a ceasefire will only work once verification issues are sorted out. Kyiv says Moscow is playing for time. RECONSTRUCTION OF UKRAINE The reconstruction of Ukraine will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and European powers want to use some of the Russian sovereign assets frozen in the West to help Kyiv. Russia says that is unacceptable. Russia could agree to using $300 billion of sovereign assets frozen in Europe for reconstruction in Ukraine but will insist that part of the money is spent on the one-fifth of the country that Moscow's forces control, Reuters reported in February. Ukraine has said it wants all the $300 billion of seized assets to be poured into post-war reconstruction. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
12-05-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
What happened the last time Russia and Ukraine held peace talks?
A municipal worker stands in front of an apartment building heavily damaged a day before, by a Russian air strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the frontline town of Kostiantynivka, in Donetsk region, Ukraine May 8, 2025. Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS Russia and Ukraine may be on the point of holding peace talks for the first time since the early weeks of the war. Here is a short guide to what was on the table back in 2022, the last time the two countries held peace talks, and why those talks broke down. WHERE AND WHEN DID NEGOTIATIONS TAKE PLACE? Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met in Belarus on February 28, 2022, four days after Russia's full-scale invasion. They later held meetings by video link before meeting again in person in Istanbul on March 29. After that they exchanged multiple drafts until mid-April, before the talks broke down. WHAT WAS DISCUSSED? - According to draft documents published last year by the New York Times, Ukraine was prepared to become a permanently neutral, non-aligned and nuclear-free state, with no foreign troops or weapons on its soil. These terms would have barred it from joining NATO but allowed for the possibility of EU membership. - In return, Ukraine would have received security guarantees from a group of countries including the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council - Britain, China, Russia, the United States and France. - A partially agreed draft said the guarantor states - including Russia - would respect and observe Ukraine's independence and sovereignty and refrain from the threat or use of force against it. - The draft proposed holding talks over a period of 10-15 years regarding the status of Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. WHAT WERE THE KEY POINTS OF DISAGREEMENT? - If Ukraine was attacked, it wanted the guarantors to provide assistance that could include "closing airspace over Ukraine, providing necessary weapons, using armed force in order to restore and subsequently maintain the security of Ukraine as a permanently neutral state". But Russia insisted any decision must be agreed by all guarantor states - meaning Moscow would have a veto. - The two sides disagreed sharply on the future size of Ukraine's armed forces and its military arsenal. For example, Kyiv was ready to agree to cap the size of its forces at 250,000, with 800 tanks and a maximum missile firing range of 280 km (174 miles). Russia was demanding limits on Ukraine of 85,000 personnel, 342 tanks and a 40 km missile range. - Moscow demanded that Ukraine recognise Russian as an official state language and end what it considers to be discrimination against Russian-speakers, something Ukraine denies. - Russia demanded the repeal of what it called "laws of Ukraine on Nazification and glorification of Nazism". Ukraine rejects the Nazism charge as absurd. WHY DID THE TALKS BREAK DOWN? By April 2022, the situation on the battlefield appeared to be turning in Ukraine's favour. It had beaten back Russian forces from around Kyiv and shown evidence to the world of alleged Russian war crimes that provoked international condemnation, although Moscow denied them. Western countries were scaling up military aid to Kyiv and escalating sanctions on Moscow - all factors that made Ukraine less inclined to accede to Russian demands, according to a detailed account of the peace talks in the journal Foreign Affairs by historian Sergey Radchenko and analyst Samuel Charap. ARE THE 2022 DRAFTS STILL RELEVANT? U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said in February that the so-called Istanbul protocols offered "guideposts" for negotiations between the warring sides. A Kremlin aide said on Sunday that the peace talks being proposed now should take into account the 2022 negotiations and the fact that Russia now controls nearly a fifth of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in December 2024 that there were no "Istanbul agreements", only talks in which Ukraine had responded to an "ultimatum" by Russia but did not sign anything. WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE THE FAILED TALKS? The original negotiations were focused mainly on sovereignty issues, but Russia's stance has hardened since then to include specific demands on territory. President Vladimir Putin said in June 2024 that Ukraine must withdraw entirely from four regions of the country - Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - that Russia has claimed as its own but only partly controls. Ukraine says it will never legally recognise Russian occupation of Ukrainian land. At the same time, Zelenskiy has acknowledged that his forces are unable at this point to take back all the lost territory and that it may be recovered over time by diplomatic means. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Japan Today
10-05-2025
- Politics
- Japan Today
European leaders tell Putin to agree to Ukraine ceasefire or face new sanctions
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speak with U.S. President Donald Trump via phone during the so-called "Coalition of the Willing" meeting, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine May 10, 2025. Press Service of Ministry of Foreign Affair of Ukraine/Handout via REUTERS By Elizabeth Piper and Andreas Rinke Major European powers threw their weight behind an unconditional 30-day Ukraine ceasefire on Saturday, with the backing of U.S. President Donald Trump, and threatened President Vladimir Putin with "massive" new sanctions if he did not accept within days. The leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine set the start of the ceasefire for May 12 at a meeting in Kyiv, during which they held a phone call with Trump. "So all of us here together with the U.S. are calling Putin out. If he is serious about peace, then he has a chance to show it," British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told a press conference. "No more ifs and buts, no more conditions and delays." Soon after the European leaders' announcement, the Kremlin appeared to pour scorn on it. "We hear many contradictory statements from Europe. They are generally confrontational in nature rather than aimed at trying to revive our relations. Nothing more," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying by Russian news agency Interfax. Peskov was later quoted by the state TASS news agency as saying that Russia would consider the ceasefire proposal, while Moscow has its own position. Western sanctions against Russia have been toughened repeatedly since its full-scale invasion in 2022, without ending the war. But following through on the threat would be a sign of growing Western unity after months of unpredictability in U.S. policy since Trump's return to the White House in January. After engaging directly with Russian officials, clashing publicly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and briefly cutting vital military aid to Kyiv, Washington has patched up ties with Ukraine and signed an agreement giving the U.S. preferential access to new Ukrainian minerals deals. Trump, who did not immediately comment publicly on the European leaders' remarks, has also signalled frustration with what Washington views as Putin's foot-dragging over a ceasefire. "In the event that the ceasefire is violated, massive sanctions will be prepared, in coordination between the Europeans and the United States," French President Emmanuel Macron said. By imposing new sanctions, the White House would be aligning itself more closely with Western Europe, which has been rattled by a trade war in which Trump has imposed tariffs on them and other countries and has suggested he might not come to the defense of NATO allies that underspend on their defense. Zelenskyy said he and the visiting leaders had agreed the unconditional ceasefire must start on Monday and cover air, sea and land. If Russia refused, it would face new sanctions, including the strengthening of punitive measures targeting its energy and banking sectors, he said. The leaders later issued a joint statement summing up the contents of the proposed 30-day ceasefire and saying its main purpose was "to make room for diplomacy". They welcomed support for the proposal from both Europe and the United States and said that if Russia sought to apply conditions, "this can only be considered as an effort to prolong the war and undermine diplomacy". Peskov had been quoted as saying on Friday that Russia supported the implementation of a 30-day ceasefire, but only with due consideration of "nuances". In remarks to U.S. broadcaster ABC broadcast earlier on Saturday, Peskov had suggested Western military assistance for Ukraine must stop for a temporary ceasefire to take effect. "Otherwise it will be an advantage for Ukraine," he said. Macron said that if the ceasefire went ahead, it would be monitored mainly by the U.S. and European countries would contribute. Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president who is now a senior security official, derided the idea of giving Russia an option between being sanctioned or giving Ukrainian forces an opportunity to rebuild. "Shove these peace plans up your pangender arses!" he wrote on X. The European leaders said the terms of a peace deal would be negotiated during the 30-day pause in fighting. "We have no illusions that the ceasefire will be breached," Zelenskyy said. On the eve of the summit, the U.S. embassy in Kyiv warned of a "potentially significant" air attack in the coming days. When the European leaders arrived in Kyiv by train on Saturday, a screen on the platform announced the arrival of the "Bravery Express". Zelenskyy accompanied them as they paid their respects at a Kyiv memorial honoring Ukrainian soldiers killed in the war. The visit falls on the final day of a May 8-10 ceasefire declared by Putin that Ukraine did not accept, denouncing it as a sham. Both sides have accused each other of violating it. Reuters journalists at a field hospital near the front line in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region saw soldiers being brought in with combat injuries sustained since the Russian ceasefire began. "There hasn't been any ceasefire, shelling has continued just as before, drones are flying just like before, the same with explosives being dropped. Nothing has changed at all," said a wounded soldier who gave his name as Stanislav. © Thomson Reuters 2025.
Straits Times
08-05-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Merz assures Zelenskiy his government can be relied upon for support
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz looks on as he opens a multilateral youth camp \"Youth4Peace\" in Berlin, Germany, May 8, 2025. REUTERS/Liesa Johannssen A resident reacts in front of his apartment building heavily damaged a day before, by a Russian air strike, while rescuers try to find his mother under debris, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the frontline town of Kostiantynivka, in Donetsk region, Ukraine May 8, 2025. Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS Merz assures Zelenskiy his government can be relied upon for support BERLIN - Germany's new Chancellor Friedrich Merz assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that his government could be relied upon for continued support against Russia's invasion, in a telephone call on Thursday, a government spokesperson said. Merz, who took office earlier this week after his conservatives won a February federal election, told Zelenskiy Germany supports the mediation efforts of U.S. President Donald Trump, in close coordination with other European partners. "This includes helping Ukraine defend itself effectively against Russian aggression and exerting pressure on Russia," the spokesperson said. Zelenskiy, in his nightly video address, said he and Merz agreed to work together on matters of joint interest. "There are already concrete things that we can do together," Zelenskiy said. "Decisions will be taken." REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Euronews
20-04-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
Putin announces 30 hour Ukraine ceasefire over Easter. Warring sides swap record number of POW
ADVERTISEMENT According to the Kremlin, the ceasefire will last from 6 p.m. Moscow time (1500 GMT) on Saturday to midnight (2100 GMT) following Easter Sunday. 'Guided by humanitarian considerations, today from 18:00 to 00:00 from Sunday to Monday, the Russian side declares an Easter truce. I order that all military actions be stopped for this period,' Putin said at a meeting with Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, the Kremlin's Press Service quoted him as saying. 'We assume that the Ukrainian side will follow our example. At the same time, our troops must be ready to repel possible violations of the truce and provocations from the enemy, any of its aggressive actions,' Putin said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the ceasefire 'another attempt by Putin to play with human lives.' He wrote on X that 'air raid alerts are spreading across Ukraine,' and 'Shahed drones in our skies reveal Putin's true attitude toward Easter and toward human life.' The two sides meanwhile exchanged hundreds of POWs on Saturday. Russia's Ministry of Defense said that 246 Russian service members were returned from territory controlled by Kyiv, and that 'as a gesture of goodwill' 31 wounded Ukrainian POWs were transferred in exchange for 15 wounded Russian soldiers in need of urgent medical care. Both sides thanked the United Arab Emirates for their mediation. In a further post, Zelenskyy welcomed the prisoner of war exchange, saying that 277 Ukrainian servicemen had returned. In response to the ceasefire announcement, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said that Kyiv had in March 'agreed unconditionally to the U.S. proposal of a full interim ceasefire for 30 days,' which Russia rejected. Putin's ceasefire announcement comes after U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are 'coming to a head' and insisted that neither side is 'playing' him in his push to end the grinding three-year war.
