Latest news with #PurchasingManagersIndices
The Sun
16-05-2025
- Business
- The Sun
Trading Amid Turbulence: Octa Broker's Guide
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 16 May 2025 - Today, financial markets no longer dance solely to the rhythm of macroeconomic data releases. Instead, they often lurch or rally in response to an offhand remark from a political leader or an abrupt policy tweet. Nowhere is this more evident than in recent weeks, where headlines—not spreadsheets—have dominated market momentum. Traditional indicators like inflation figures or Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) still carry weight, but traders should also read between the headlines and act on the fly. Octa Broker provides examples of how news affects the market and what events are worth monitoring. The Historical Impact of News on Markets Market-shocking news is nothing new. Arguably, one of the most infamous examples occurred on 15 January 2015, when the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly eliminated its currency ceiling against the euro. Within seconds, the EUR/CHF pair plummeted by nearly 30%, wiping billions from the forex markets and sending shockwaves around global financial institutions. This historical context matters. It reminds that both scheduled and unscheduled news can have outsized impacts on market pricing, especially when market participants are caught off guard. Scheduled vs. Unscheduled News Events Scheduled news events, by their nature, offer predictability. Reports such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), labour market data, PMIs, and central bank meetings are calendar fixtures. Their importance, however, varies depending on the issuing country. The United States is a leader in terms of influence. As the issuer of the global reserve currency, U.S. economic data has global ramifications. An example is the U.S. CPI reading, which not only shifts USD pairs but, often, equity indexes and commodities. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases these reports monthly. PMI reports, often early indicators of economic health, are published by S&P Global on a harmonised schedule across major economies. Central bank meeting dates, while known in advance, still generate high volatility due to surprise rate decisions or hawkish/dovish commentary. Federal Reserve (Fed) meetings can be tracked here, and the European Central Bank's (ECB) schedule is also available on the institution's website. In contrast, unscheduled news events are unpredictable and often far more dramatic in terms of market impact. These include geopolitical tensions, unexpected policy announcements, or political rhetoric. On 1 February 2025, President Trump's sudden announcement of comprehensive tariffs on Canadian imports pushed USD/CAD to record multi-decade highs. The Surge of Unscheduled News in Recent Times April 2025 exemplified how chaotic unscheduled news can become. In early April, shifting U.S. tariff policies caused sharp moves in equity markets. Major indices dropped into correction territory but later recovered after revised statements. Then, in early May, mixed job data added to the uncertainty, offering little clarity on what to expect next. Current News Events Influencing the Markets Several unscheduled narratives are currently steering sentiment: •Trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are ongoing, with some progress achieved, but uncertainty continues to linger as to whether an acceptable and long-lasting agreement can be achieved within a 90-day deadline. •President Trump's public critique of Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to inject uncertainty into the monetary policy outlook. •Meanwhile, the U.S. remains involved—albeit hesitantly—in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. •Trade discussions with Japan have also become strained, with little progress reported thus far. Strategies for Traders During High-Volatility News Cycles In this news-saturated environment, adaptability is key. Traders can navigate volatility with the following strategies: •Use smaller position sizes to limit exposure. •Apply tighter stop-loss orders to protect against sudden swings. •Opt for short-term trades to reduce the risk of overnight event surprises. •Avoid overly volatile assets unless accompanied by clear signals or hedges. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, notes: 'With news-driven and unexpected volatilities driving trading in our current setting, traders must become more reactive and less anticipatory in their strategies. Do not try to front-run and second-guess the outcome of this or that event. Instead, wait for the dust to settle and then enter the market. Position sizing should reflect the current volatility regime, ideally calculated through dynamic risk metrics like ATR (Average True Range). Most importantly, traders should maintain a structured news-monitoring routine and understand the second-order effects of headlines—for example, how a tariff announcement may ripple through commodities, currencies, and interest rate expectations simultaneously.' Scheduled economic releases still matter, but unscheduled news—particularly in the current politically charged global climate—has emerged as the primary driver of market sentiment. The line between economic and political news continues to blur, and with it, the predictability of price action. For traders, this means one thing above all: stay flexible, stay informed, and adjust strategies to match the new reality. ___ Disclaimer: This content is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to engage in any investment activity. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or individual needs. Any action you take based on this content is at your sole discretion and risk. Octa and its affiliates accept no liability for any losses or consequences resulting from reliance on this material. Trading involves risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Use your expertise wisely and evaluate all associated risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Availability of products and services may vary by jurisdiction. Please ensure compliance with your local laws before accessing them. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
The Sun
16-05-2025
- Business
- The Sun
Trading Amid Turbulence: Octa Broker's Guide to Navigating High-Volatility News Cycles
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 16 May 2025 - Today, financial markets no longer dance solely to the rhythm of macroeconomic data releases. Instead, they often lurch or rally in response to an offhand remark from a political leader or an abrupt policy tweet. Nowhere is this more evident than in recent weeks, where headlines—not spreadsheets—have dominated market momentum. Traditional indicators like inflation figures or Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) still carry weight, but traders should also read between the headlines and act on the fly. Octa Broker provides examples of how news affects the market and what events are worth monitoring. The Historical Impact of News on Markets Market-shocking news is nothing new. Arguably, one of the most infamous examples occurred on 15 January 2015, when the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly eliminated its currency ceiling against the euro. Within seconds, the EUR/CHF pair plummeted by nearly 30%, wiping billions from the forex markets and sending shockwaves around global financial institutions. This historical context matters. It reminds that both scheduled and unscheduled news can have outsized impacts on market pricing, especially when market participants are caught off guard. Scheduled vs. Unscheduled News Events Scheduled news events, by their nature, offer predictability. Reports such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), labour market data, PMIs, and central bank meetings are calendar fixtures. Their importance, however, varies depending on the issuing country. The United States is a leader in terms of influence. As the issuer of the global reserve currency, U.S. economic data has global ramifications. An example is the U.S. CPI reading, which not only shifts USD pairs but, often, equity indexes and commodities. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases these reports monthly. PMI reports, often early indicators of economic health, are published by S&P Global on a harmonised schedule across major economies. Central bank meeting dates, while known in advance, still generate high volatility due to surprise rate decisions or hawkish/dovish commentary. Federal Reserve (Fed) meetings can be tracked here, and the European Central Bank's (ECB) schedule is also available on the institution's website. In contrast, unscheduled news events are unpredictable and often far more dramatic in terms of market impact. These include geopolitical tensions, unexpected policy announcements, or political rhetoric. On 1 February 2025, President Trump's sudden announcement of comprehensive tariffs on Canadian imports pushed USD/CAD to record multi-decade highs. The Surge of Unscheduled News in Recent Times April 2025 exemplified how chaotic unscheduled news can become. In early April, shifting U.S. tariff policies caused sharp moves in equity markets. Major indices dropped into correction territory but later recovered after revised statements. Then, in early May, mixed job data added to the uncertainty, offering little clarity on what to expect next. Current News Events Influencing the Markets Several unscheduled narratives are currently steering sentiment: •Trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are ongoing, with some progress achieved, but uncertainty continues to linger as to whether an acceptable and long-lasting agreement can be achieved within a 90-day deadline. •President Trump's public critique of Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to inject uncertainty into the monetary policy outlook. •Meanwhile, the U.S. remains involved—albeit hesitantly—in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. •Trade discussions with Japan have also become strained, with little progress reported thus far. Strategies for Traders During High-Volatility News Cycles In this news-saturated environment, adaptability is key. Traders can navigate volatility with the following strategies: •Use smaller position sizes to limit exposure. •Apply tighter stop-loss orders to protect against sudden swings. •Opt for short-term trades to reduce the risk of overnight event surprises. •Avoid overly volatile assets unless accompanied by clear signals or hedges. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, notes: 'With news-driven and unexpected volatilities driving trading in our current setting, traders must become more reactive and less anticipatory in their strategies. Do not try to front-run and second-guess the outcome of this or that event. Instead, wait for the dust to settle and then enter the market. Position sizing should reflect the current volatility regime, ideally calculated through dynamic risk metrics like ATR (Average True Range). Most importantly, traders should maintain a structured news-monitoring routine and understand the second-order effects of headlines—for example, how a tariff announcement may ripple through commodities, currencies, and interest rate expectations simultaneously.' Scheduled economic releases still matter, but unscheduled news—particularly in the current politically charged global climate—has emerged as the primary driver of market sentiment. The line between economic and political news continues to blur, and with it, the predictability of price action. For traders, this means one thing above all: stay flexible, stay informed, and adjust strategies to match the new reality. ___ Disclaimer: This content is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to engage in any investment activity. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or individual needs. Any action you take based on this content is at your sole discretion and risk. Octa and its affiliates accept no liability for any losses or consequences resulting from reliance on this material. Trading involves risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Use your expertise wisely and evaluate all associated risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Availability of products and services may vary by jurisdiction. Please ensure compliance with your local laws before accessing them. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
The Independent
27-03-2025
- Business
- The Independent
As Trump throws bricks at UK plc, we need to work out who our friends are
'Events' keep on making life complicated for Britain's beleaguered government. A case in point: just a day after confirming that disabled people will have to carry the burden of making her sums add up, chancellor Rachel Reeves and the rest of the cabinet have found themselves facing an orange grenade. Donald Trump is imposing 25 per cent tariffs on car imports into the United States. We need a sense of proportion here. After the EU, the United States is the UK car industry 's largest export market. But, when it comes to from where the US imports most of its motors, our assembly plants lag behind those of Japan, South Korea, Canada, Germany and especially Mexico. Moreover, the sort of people who can afford to buy some of the UK's luxury marques – think Jaguars, Bentleys, and Aston Martins – are less sensitive to price than those who rely upon more work-a-day vehicles sent up over the border from Baja California, or using parts made in Canada. But the tariffs will still hurt what remains an important industry for the UK – doubly so in manufacturing, an area that has been struggling. It is the last thing that Reeves and co need, coming on top of the tariffs the UK has already had imposed on its transatlantic steel exports. Manufacturing matters, even if it is dwarfed by the gigantic service sector. It can and does provide the sort of relatively well-paying jobs Labour would like to see more of. They are certainly preferable to entry-level positions in the service sector. Just ask people living in regions affected by de-industrialisation, where call centres and warehouses have replaced metal-bashers and miners. The sector's troubles have dragged down the UK's stuttering economic performance at a time when the government is desperately trying to find growth. The closely watched, forward-looking Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) produced by S&P Global have been telling a grim story. The flash results for March showed UK manufacturing in a slough of despond, recording a 17-month low of 44.6, where anything above 50 indicates growth. By contrast, the service sector turned in a score of 53.2, which is a seven-month high. Trump's trade vandalism thus looks like a raised middle finger spray-painted across a map of the UK's struggling manufacturing hubs. The government's response has, for a change, been cautious and mature. It stands as an all-too-rare example of sensible policymaking in stark contrast to 'desperately throwing stuff against a wall in the hope that something will stick with the public', which was how one insider put it to me. The attempt to negotiate – and make the point that the UK does not run a chunky trade surplus with the US, according to the perferred US measure (the one the UK uses has it the other way around) – is similarly wise, even as the parties on Labour's left flank (Lib Dems, Greens and the SNP) pout and posture. Retaliating immediately with tariffs of our own would hurt more than help. However, we can't escape the fact that this does rather make the point that if there ever was a 'special relationship', the thing the UK's vocal and influential corps of Atlanticists have always hung their hats on, it is now dead and buried. Trump has thrown a tin of petrol over its rotting corpse. If the negotiations fail – and is anyone terribly hopeful at this point? – this would be him lobbing a lit match over his right shoulder as he heads off for a round of golf at Mar-a-Lago. That the UK is in this uncomfortable position only emphasis the profound act of economic and geopolitical self-harm that was Brexit. However vexatious and irksome people find Brussels, before or since, the EU has never done anything like this, has never even contemplated such wanton thuggery. To the contrary. Keir Starmer's election win saw it making overtures of friendship – swiftly and stupidly rebuffed – to the new Labour government by dangling a youth mobility scheme that would allow young Britons to live and work across the continent. If the UK's attempt to talk its way out of this potential economic jam fails, it might serve as an opportune time to take a step back and consider where its economic interests really lie, how they are best served – and who our friends are. There is an easy answer, sitting across the Channel. When you're a mid-sized player, there is value to being part of a club, even if, for now, that would mean being a partial, semi-detached member of the gang without access to the treehouse. Labour needs to wake up and see that a genuine effort to pursue closer ties with Britain's friends would be a smart move, economically and geopolitically, at a time when the world seems to be getting more hostile by the day. alienating the people who voted for it with wild abandon could really use right now.
The Independent
14-03-2025
- Business
- The Independent
As manufacturing output declines 0.9pc, will the economy ever lift off?
Britain's makers and metal-bashers are not in a happy place. Manufacturing might be small when compared to Britain's dominant service sector, but it still counts. This brings us to the latest official figures, showing that the economy caught a winter cold and decided to stay in bed in January after December's surprisingly sprightly performance. To be fair, no one was expecting much. The regular Reuters poll of economists called for an expansion of 0.1 per cent. But the fact that UK plc did the opposite, contracting by the same number, will still come as a major disappointment to a government that has put growth above all but is struggling to find it with any consistency. The dominant service sector more or less held up, inching forward with growth of 0.1 per cent, but the makers' mucked up the numbers, recording a 0.9 per cent decline. With construction also falling (0.2 per cent), Britain's economic hokey-cokey – two steps forwards, two steps back – continues. Here's where it gets really unpleasant. The first quarter economic survey from Make UK, the manufacturers trade body, comes out on Monday – and I understand that the figures will be very weak, with both orders and output in the red. What makes this stand out is that the first quarter of the year is usually a good one for the sector. The last time it was in a trough was back in 2016, nearly a decade ago. This isn't terribly surprising when you consider that the organisation's business confidence indicator fell at the fastest rate since the pandemic in the final three months of last year. But it is a bad look. You'll have guessed by now that chancellor Rachel Reeves Autumn Budget, and the decision to hike employer national insurance contributions (NICs) in particular is one of the big villains of the piece. It looks increasingly like an act of self-harm. A separate Make UK survey in January in response to that Budget showed recruitment being frozen at best, with a significant number of companies planning redundancies. Investment plans were being delayed or cancelled. This is becoming a familiar story across British business. Chief executives and finance directors aren't going to put their firms' money at risk by investing unless they feel confident in doing so. The fact that the relationship between business and the chancellor has turned sour quicker than a celebrity marriage has played a major role in its disappearance. However, to simply blame the chancellor for the sector's woes would be over simplistic. Markets globally are riven by uncertainty and fear, with the threat of Donald Trump's tariffs hanging over everything. Export markets have also been weak for some time, especially in Europe, where growth is anaemic at best (excepting Spain). Germany, the economic engine, has been mired in recession. The forward looking Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for European manufacturing have been below 50, with anything above indicating growth, for some time and, despite Brexit, the EU still takes roughly half of the UK's exports. There should be some relief coming in the second part of the year, when Reeves debt funded investment spending starts to come on stream. But what manufacturers would really like is a long term industrial strategy with some real oomph behind it. The latter is something which has been notably lacking. Theresa May broke the ice by finally recognising that simply leaving it to the market wasn't going to work. But there has, since then, been a lot more talk than action. Make UK would like a ten year programme with clear metrics attached so its success or the lack of it can be monitored. It would include action to address the skills gap – a persistent and naggingly stubborn problem – and improving the ranking of the sector's robotics density for digitalisation among other things. 'There is a perfect storm of factors affecting our sector at the moment economically and politically and there are no easy answers,' says Make UK. But there are still political choices that could be made to help. There is a corps of people who like to argue that it is time to give up the manufacturing ghost. Britain's days as a power are long gone. Services are what we're good at – we should focus on those. These figures will likely have them nodding sagely. But they're wrong. A mixed economy is best served by having several strings to its bow. And the service sector can clearly look after itself. If the government wants an end to a sluggish stop start economy it is time to recognise this and put some effort into addressing the issues that it can address. Restoring confidence and building back the trust that has been lost would be a good place to start.
