Latest news with #QuarterlyEconomicReview
Al Etihad
12 hours ago
- Business
- Al Etihad
UAE's GDP to grow by 4.4% in 2025, 5.4% in 2026: Central Bank of UAE's latest forecast
26 June 2025 18:12 REDDY (ABU DHABI)The UAE's real GDP is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2025, accelerating to 5.4% in 2026, according to the Central Bank of the UAE's (CBUAE) latest Quarterly Economic Review. This growth trajectory is supported by the resilience of the non-hydrocarbon sector and a rebound in oil and gas output aligned with updated OPEC+ production CBUAE forecasts non-hydrocarbon GDP to expand steadily by 4.5% in both 2025 and 2026, underpinned by the country's strategic drive to attract foreign investment, support innovation, and advance key sectors such as manufacturing, tourism, transport, and the digital economy. On the hydrocarbon side, growth is forecast at 4.1% in 2025, followed by a sharper 8.1% expansion in 2026, reflecting anticipated increases in oil output as OPEC+ production quotas are gradually relaxed and new upstream and midstream projects take hold. This marks a significant turnaround from 2024, when oil GDP grew by just 1.0%, dragging overall GDP growth to 4.0% despite a 5.0% rise in non-oil the central bank has marginally revised down its earlier growth forecasts—by 0.3 percentage points for both years—citing softer global economic activity, lower oil prices, and increased uncertainty, the outlook remains solidly this assessment, Ralf Wiegert, Head of MENA Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, 'The UAE economy is still expected to gain momentum. We forecast real GDP growth to reach 5.4% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026. This will be driven by the oil sector's recovery and the strength of domestic demand.'Wiegert also emphasised the UAE's capacity to weather external shocks, adding, 'Domestic demand in the UAE remains strong and is underpinning broader economic stability. The oil rebound adds a strong layer of support to the overall growth story.'On the inflation front, the CBUAE reported an average rate of 1.4% in Q1 2025, driven mainly by lower transportation costs and easing energy prices. Abu Dhabi's inflation rate was 0.5%, and Dubai's inflation rate was 3.1% for the first quarter of 2025, the CBUAE report noted. Full-year inflation is now forecast at 1.9% for both 2025 and 2026—a slight downward revision from earlier estimates. While housing costs have edged higher, rising by 3.9% year-on-year in Q1, food and beverage inflation cooled to just 0.4% amid softening global commodity prices.S&P Global Market Intelligence broadly concurs with the central bank's inflation projections, though it expects a gradual increase over time.'Our inflation outlook for 2025 matches the central bank's at 1.9%, but we anticipate a moderate acceleration to 2.5% in 2026 due to sustained domestic demand,' Wiegert noted. Despite risks tied to global trade policy uncertainty and oil price volatility, the CBUAE's report also identifies upside potential in the successful implementation of economic reforms, new trade agreements, and the growing role of artificial intelligence in enhancing productivity and competitiveness.
Al Etihad
23-03-2025
- Business
- Al Etihad
CBUAE projects 4.7% growth rate for 2025
23 Mar 2025 22:21 MAYS IBRAHIM (ABU DHABI)The UAE's economy is set for robust expansion, according to the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE). Its latest Quarterly Economic Review projects a 4.7% GDP growth in 2025, further accelerating to 5.7% in report noted that the UAE's non-oil trade exceeded Dh2 trillion in the first nine months of 2024, a 14.9% year-on-year increase, "reflecting the successful implementation of the UAE's economic diversification plans and strengthening ties with its key trading partners."The non-hydrocarbon sector is expected to grow by 5.1% in 2025, according to the hydrocarbon sector is also poised for a 3.6% expansion in 2025, followed by a further 8.5% growth in is supported by gradual increases in oil production as OPEC+ lifts production cuts, in addition to ongoing and planned upstream and midstream oil and gas report also pointed out that the UAE's airports experienced a 10% increase in passenger traffic in 2024."Abu Dhabi Airports reported significant growth, handling 29.4 million passengers in 2024, a 28.1% increase from 2023, driven by network expansion, strategic partnerships, and a focus on delivering a world-class passenger experience," the report said."Abu Dhabi's expanding role as a leisure and business travel hub significantly contributes to the UAE's economic diversification efforts."Meanwhile, Dubai International Airport set a new record in 2024, welcoming 92.3 million passengers and surpassing its previous peak of 89.1 million in UAE's tourism and aviation sectors remain key drivers of economic diversification, according to the sustained growth in both sectors "reflects the success of planned initiatives aimed at enhancing connectivity, expanding hospitality infrastructure, and promoting the UAE as a global destination for leisure and business travel."The UAE banking sector remains resilient, with total assets reaching Dh4.56 trillion by the end of grew by 9.5% year-on-year, driven by increased retail and corporate borrowing, while deposit growth reached 12.9% in Q4 insurance sector also demonstrated significant growth, with gross written premiums increasing by 21.4% year-on-year, and gross paid claims rising by 35.8%.The report also noted that the UAE government recorded a fiscal surplus of Dh96.3 billion (6.5% of GDP) in the first nine months of 2024, a 57.5% increase from the same period in 2023, driven by a 22.1% rise in tax capital expenditure increased by 15.4% year-on-year, reinforcing its commitment to infrastructure development and economic in the UAE remained well-controlled at 1.7% in 2024, significantly below the global average of 5.7%.The CBUAE maintained its 2025 inflation forecast for the UAE at 2.0%. Non-tradable components of the consumer basket are expected to be the main drivers, partially offset by moderating energy UAE's import sector reached Dh1.177 trillion in the first nine months of 2024, expanding by 12.9% year-on-year, with China, India, and the US as the top trading partners. Gold remained a key trade commodity, accounting for 23.5% of total imports and 48.6% of total non-oil exports.
