9 hours ago
Rand rallies to best level in 7 months as Trump's Fed comment hits dollar
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The rand hit levels last seen in November 2024, with the dollar under pressure after US president Donald Trump said he had a handful of candidates to succeed Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell, fuelling rate cut bets.
Lower US interest rates will make rand assets more attractive to foreign investors who are looking to earn interest on their investments.
On Thursday morning, the rand traded at R17.58/$ - its best level since November 11. The currency started the week at around R18.13 and reached R19.76 as recently as April this year amid concerns that the DA will exit the business-friendly government of national unity.
The rand is almost 4% stronger than a year ago against the dollar.
Gryphon Asset Management portfolio manager Casparus Treurnicht expects more short-term strength, and says the currency could be heading towards R17.35.
Since returning to the White House the president has constantly hit out at the Fed boss for not cutting rates, questioning his intelligence and stoking worries about the bank's independence.
'I know within three or four people who I'm going to pick,' he told reporters after a NATO summit.
'I mean he goes out pretty soon fortunately because I think he's terrible,' Trump said of Powell, whose term ends in May next year.
Trump added that Powell was 'average mentally' and had 'low IQ for what he does'.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Republican was considering making an announcement in September or October, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, economic adviser Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh among the contenders.
Trump's remarks came days after Powell told lawmakers the bank needed to see the impact of the president's tariffs on the economy before making a move.
'Trump will seek yes man who will cut -- he's already been calling for rates to be 2-3 points lower,' said Neil Wilson at Saxo Markets.
'The Fed is staying cautious on rates right now, but if we get a shadow Fed chair in the autumn saying he will slash rates as soon as possible (ie May 2026), you will see inflation fears rise and markets will sell long-dated bonds and push the dollar lower.'
Oil prices
With a shaky ceasefire between Iran and Israel holding for now, Trump said he would hold nuclear talks with Tehran next week, even after insisting that US strikes had set its atomic programme back "decades".
"We may sign an agreement. I don't know," he told reporters.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had said Tuesday his country was willing to return to negotiations but that it would continue to "assert its legitimate rights" to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
Crude prices, which tanked Monday and Tuesday after the ceasefire was announced, climbed for a second day, though gains were capped by the possibility that OPEC and other key producers will lift output.
"While the Israel-Iran conflict is now de-escalating, we still believe that geopolitical risks remain where the ceasefire could easily fall apart," wrote Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar.
"While this possibility remains elevated, we do not believe that there would be a restriction on oil supply even under a re-escalating scenario. Given that oil has retreated to preconflict price levels, we believe that any future increase in oil price is likely to be short-lived."
Uncertainty over the US president's trade war was also keeping market sentiment subdued, with most countries still not reaching deals with Washington to avert the reimposition of steep tariffs ahead of a July 9 deadline.
Equity markets were mixed, with Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul and Manila in the red, while Tokyo, Singapore, Taipei, Mumbai, Bangkok, Jakarta and Wellington were in positive territory.
London, Paris and Frankfurt all advanced in the morning.
That came after a tepid lead from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq was the standout after chip titan Nvidia shot up more than four percent to a record high, giving it a market valuation of around $3.76 trillion. That makes it more valuable than Microsoft, Apple and other tech giants.
The JSE's All Share Index jumped almost 1% on Thursday morning, with Implats (+8%), Sibanye (+7%) and Northam (+7%) among the biggest gainers.
Platinum surged to its highest level since 2014 as supply concerns and a wave of speculative buying jolted the market, Bloomberg reported.
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