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Economic Times
27-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India's industrial output likely slowed to 1.2% YoY in April: UBI Report
A Union Bank of India report forecasts a significant deceleration in India's industrial output, projecting a 1.2% year-on-year growth for April 2025, down from 3% in March. This slowdown is attributed to broad-based economic weakness, particularly in mining and manufacturing. Global trade uncertainties and tariff hikes are expected to further pressure export-oriented sectors, impacting overall IIP growth. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads India's Index of Industrial Production , a measure of industrial output, will decelerate to 1.2 per cent year on year in April 2025 from 3 per cent in March due to the broad-based slowdown in economic activity, particularly mining and manufacturing, says a report by the Union Bank of India (UBI)According to the report, the country's IIP is expected to stay significantly lower than the 5.2 per cent of April 2024, indicating a "slowdown in economic activity" in the Indian economy."We had flagged a potential sharp slowdown in April IIP numbers in the March data report (IIP March 2025) due to a spike in global trade uncertainty during the month on reciprocal tariff hikes by the US (the highest since WWII)," the report added."We estimate that at least 30-35% of the weight in IIP is attributed to exports, which is likely to come under pressure till some trade clarity is achieved," the report further Industrial Production data for April will be released on May 28, offering insights into the country's manufacturing momentum and economic out the factors behind its anticipation, the report says that the high-frequency indicators showed mixed trends in April current year, amid high trade and tariff-related says the latest RBI Bulletin says that while E-way bills and toll collections recorded double-digit YoY growth in April, the automobile sector witnessed a petroleum consumption declined for the third consecutive month. Merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 26.4 bn in April from USD 19.2 bn the previous sector indicators, namely steel consumption and cement production, witnessed a moderation in April report says that the core sector, which has close to a 40 per cent contribution to the IIP, slowed to an eight-month low of 0.5 per cent YoY in April, compared to 6.9 per cent registered in the same period last refinery products, fertilisers and crude oil showed negative YoY growth, the production of cement, coal, steel, electricity and natural gas recorded positive growth in April, even as it slowed very sharply compared to a monthly basis, except for natural gas, all seven other sectors showed contraction, with coal, refinery products, cement, steel and fertilisers registering double-digit negative report says that recovery in aggregate demand may have continued to remain weak in Apr 25 IIP, as was witnessed in previous overall consumer IIP is expected to slip into the negative zone from a flat reading in March, the report further added that consumption demand may be primarily led by urban demand, while rural demand may have weakened further in the report adds that capital goods IIP growth is expected to have improved in April as compared to the previous month due to favourable base effects (2.8 per cent in April 2024) as 2024 lags behind government spending during UBI says that intermediate, infrastructure, and construction goods may have worsened in April compared to the previous month due to the fall in cement (-16.7 per cent MoM) and steel (-10.0 per cent MoM) production in April 2025.
India Gazette
27-05-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
India's industrial output likely slowed to 1.2% YoY in April: UBI Report
New Delhi [India], May 27 (ANI): India's Index of Industrial Production, a measure of industrial output, will decelerate to 1.2 per cent year on year in April 2025 from 3 per cent in March due to the broad-based slowdown in economic activity, particularly mining and manufacturing, says a report by the Union Bank of India (UBI) According to the report, the country's IIP is expected to stay significantly lower than the 5.2 per cent of April 2024, indicating a 'slowdown in economic activity' in the Indian economy. 'We had flagged a potential sharp slowdown in April IIP numbers in the March data report (IIP March 2025) due to a spike in global trade uncertainty during the month on reciprocal tariff hikes by the US (the highest since WWII),' the report added. 'We estimate that at least 30-35% of the weight in IIP is attributed to exports, which is likely to come under pressure till some trade clarity is achieved,' the report further added. The Industrial Production data for April will be released on May 28, offering insights into the country's manufacturing momentum and economic activity. Pointing out the factors behind its anticipation, the report says that the high-frequency indicators showed mixed trends in April current year, amid high trade and tariff-related uncertainty. It says the latest RBI Bulletin says that while E-way bills and toll collections recorded double-digit YoY growth in April, the automobile sector witnessed a slowdown. Also, petroleum consumption declined for the third consecutive month. Merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 26.4 bn in April from USD 19.2 bn the previous year. Construction sector indicators, namely steel consumption and cement production, witnessed a moderation in April 2025. The report says that the core sector, which has close to a 40 per cent contribution to the IIP, slowed to an eight-month low of 0.5 per cent YoY in April, compared to 6.9 per cent registered in the same period last year. While refinery products, fertilisers and crude oil showed negative YoY growth, the production of cement, coal, steel, electricity and natural gas recorded positive growth in April, even as it slowed very sharply compared to March. On a monthly basis, except for natural gas, all seven other sectors showed contraction, with coal, refinery products, cement, steel and fertilisers registering double-digit negative growth. The report says that recovery in aggregate demand may have continued to remain weak in Apr 25 IIP, as was witnessed in previous months. The overall consumer IIP is expected to slip into the negative zone from a flat reading in March, the report anticipated. It further added that consumption demand may be primarily led by urban demand, while rural demand may have weakened further in April. Furthermore, the report adds that capital goods IIP growth is expected to have improved in April as compared to the previous month due to favourable base effects (2.8 per cent in April 2024) as 2024 lags behind government spending during elections. The UBI says that intermediate, infrastructure, and construction goods may have worsened in April compared to the previous month due to the fall in cement (-16.7 per cent MoM) and steel (-10.0 per cent MoM) production in April 2025. (ANI)
Time of India
27-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India's industrial output likely slowed to 1.2% YoY in April: UBI Report
India's Index of Industrial Production , a measure of industrial output, will decelerate to 1.2 per cent year on year in April 2025 from 3 per cent in March due to the broad-based slowdown in economic activity, particularly mining and manufacturing, says a report by the Union Bank of India (UBI) According to the report, the country's IIP is expected to stay significantly lower than the 5.2 per cent of April 2024, indicating a "slowdown in economic activity" in the Indian economy. "We had flagged a potential sharp slowdown in April IIP numbers in the March data report (IIP March 2025) due to a spike in global trade uncertainty during the month on reciprocal tariff hikes by the US (the highest since WWII)," the report added. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Uncover The Latest 2025 SUV Prices List In The Philippines SUV Deals | Search Ads Search Now Undo "We estimate that at least 30-35% of the weight in IIP is attributed to exports, which is likely to come under pressure till some trade clarity is achieved," the report further added. The Industrial Production data for April will be released on May 28, offering insights into the country's manufacturing momentum and economic activity. Live Events Pointing out the factors behind its anticipation, the report says that the high-frequency indicators showed mixed trends in April current year, amid high trade and tariff-related uncertainty. It says the latest RBI Bulletin says that while E-way bills and toll collections recorded double-digit YoY growth in April, the automobile sector witnessed a slowdown. Also, petroleum consumption declined for the third consecutive month. Merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 26.4 bn in April from USD 19.2 bn the previous year. Construction sector indicators, namely steel consumption and cement production, witnessed a moderation in April 2025. The report says that the core sector, which has close to a 40 per cent contribution to the IIP, slowed to an eight-month low of 0.5 per cent YoY in April, compared to 6.9 per cent registered in the same period last year. While refinery products, fertilisers and crude oil showed negative YoY growth, the production of cement, coal, steel, electricity and natural gas recorded positive growth in April, even as it slowed very sharply compared to March. On a monthly basis, except for natural gas, all seven other sectors showed contraction, with coal, refinery products, cement, steel and fertilisers registering double-digit negative growth. The report says that recovery in aggregate demand may have continued to remain weak in Apr 25 IIP, as was witnessed in previous months. The overall consumer IIP is expected to slip into the negative zone from a flat reading in March, the report anticipated. It further added that consumption demand may be primarily led by urban demand, while rural demand may have weakened further in April. Furthermore, the report adds that capital goods IIP growth is expected to have improved in April as compared to the previous month due to favourable base effects (2.8 per cent in April 2024) as 2024 lags behind government spending during elections. The UBI says that intermediate, infrastructure, and construction goods may have worsened in April compared to the previous month due to the fall in cement (-16.7 per cent MoM) and steel (-10.0 per cent MoM) production in April 2025.
Economic Times
24-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India's Q4 FY25 GDP growth likely to accelerate to 7.0%: UBI report
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel The growth rate of the Indian economy in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2025 will clock 7.0 per cent, with an uptick from the third quarter (Q3 FY25) of 6.2 per cent, according to a report by Union Bank of India (UBI).As per the UBI report, the revised estimate for full-year FY25 growth is likely to be lowered to 6.3 per cent from 6.5 per cent previously. Gross Value Added (GVA) growth for Q4 FY25 is likely to improve to 6.7 per cent from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY25, the report report added that high-frequency indicators present a mixed trend, though the economic activity index indicates a slight upward bias."Our heatmap of high-frequency indicators shows a mixed picture even as our economic activity index signalled a mild upward bias. The latter tracks well with GVA ex agri & government, a metric of private sector activity, and hence we see it showing a pickup to 6.8 per cent in Q4 from 5.9 per cent in Q3 FY25," the report the RBI Bulletin, the report says that indicators signal a sequential improvement in economic momentum during the second half of FY25, with this trend expected to RBI's GDP nowcast projects Q4 FY25 growth at 6.6 per cent. Factors such as a possible revival in rural demand, continued government spending, and large-scale religious events like the Mahakumbh are likely supporting this recovery."Apart from a likely revival in rural demand and a sustained pickup in government spending, other factors like the organisation of mass religious gatherings via the Mahakumbh (Rs 2 to 3 lakh Cr nominal growth impact as per media reports) may have played a key role in supporting growth recovery," the report the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected India's GDP at 6.2 per cent in FY25 and 6.3 per cent in fiscal 2026, driven by strong private consumption, even as global growth slows to 2.8 per cent in 2025.
Time of India
24-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India's Q4 FY25 GDP growth likely to accelerate to 7.0%: UBI report
The growth rate of the Indian economy in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2025 will clock 7.0 per cent, with an uptick from the third quarter (Q3 FY25) of 6.2 per cent, according to a report by Union Bank of India (UBI). As per the UBI report, the revised estimate for full-year FY25 growth is likely to be lowered to 6.3 per cent from 6.5 per cent previously. Gross Value Added (GVA) growth for Q4 FY25 is likely to improve to 6.7 per cent from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY25, the report added. The report added that high-frequency indicators present a mixed trend, though the economic activity index indicates a slight upward bias. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like This might be relevant for you Undo "Our heatmap of high-frequency indicators shows a mixed picture even as our economic activity index signalled a mild upward bias. The latter tracks well with GVA ex agri & government, a metric of private sector activity, and hence we see it showing a pickup to 6.8 per cent in Q4 from 5.9 per cent in Q3 FY25," the report added. Citing the RBI Bulletin, the report says that indicators signal a sequential improvement in economic momentum during the second half of FY25, with this trend expected to continue. Live Events The RBI's GDP nowcast projects Q4 FY25 growth at 6.6 per cent. Factors such as a possible revival in rural demand, continued government spending, and large-scale religious events like the Mahakumbh are likely supporting this recovery. "Apart from a likely revival in rural demand and a sustained pickup in government spending, other factors like the organisation of mass religious gatherings via the Mahakumbh (Rs 2 to 3 lakh Cr nominal growth impact as per media reports) may have played a key role in supporting growth recovery," the report added. Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected India's GDP at 6.2 per cent in FY25 and 6.3 per cent in fiscal 2026, driven by strong private consumption, even as global growth slows to 2.8 per cent in 2025.
