Latest news with #RM3.66
Borneo Post
30-05-2025
- Business
- Borneo Post
Warisan's GLC talk an insult to Sabahans' intelligence - Mandela
Mandela KOTA KINABALU (May 30): Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) Penampang Youth chief Datuk Ceasar Mandela Malakun has dismissed recent claims by Warisan vice president Datuk Junz Wong on good governance, saying Warisan's track record with state-linked companies tells a very different story. Mandela said Warisan's portrayal of itself as a reform-oriented administration does not reflect the realities of its time in government from 2018 to 2020, particularly in the management of Sabah International Petroleum (SIP) and Sabah Development Bank (SDBank). 'When the then Chief Minister and Finance Minister also took on the role of SIP chairman, it raised serious concerns about the concentration of power and oversight,' he said in a statement on Friday. 'From May 2018 to September 2020, SIP's debts to SDBank increased from RM1.05 billion to RM1.24 billion, while its total group liabilities — combining those with commercial banks — rose to RM1.75 billion.' Mandela also pointed to SDBank's deteriorating fiscal position during the same period. The bank's external bond obligations reportedly jumped from RM3.66 billion to RM4.57 billion by the time Warisan left office. 'Despite clear signs of financial distress, the bank continued to declare annual profits — a situation which, according to industry observers at the time, raised concerns of pervasive and systemic governance weaknesses, including the possible use of creative accounting practices that may have masked the bank's underlying financial risks,' he added. He said the GRS-led government is currently undertaking restructuring efforts to address the issues left behind. 'Today, SIP and SDBank are undergoing necessary reforms to restore proper financial discipline, improve risk management, and ensure that these institutions serve their developmental mandate effectively.' While Mandela welcomed public discussion on GLC reform, he stressed that such conversations must be rooted in truth, not politically motivated historical distortion. 'Sabahans deserve the truth, not Junz's selective memory. Governance isn't about rhetorics — it's about taking responsibility,' he said. Mandela added that the GRS administration remains focused on restoring public trust in state institutions through long-term, structural improvements.
Yahoo
24-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
PETRONAS Chemicals Group Berhad (KLSE:PCHEM) Shares Could Be 30% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
PETRONAS Chemicals Group Berhad's estimated fair value is RM5.22 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity PETRONAS Chemicals Group Berhad is estimated to be 30% undervalued based on current share price of RM3.66 The RM4.49 analyst price target for PCHEM is 14% less than our estimate of fair value Does the March share price for PETRONAS Chemicals Group Berhad (KLSE:PCHEM) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. The end of cancer? These 15 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's. We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (MYR, Millions) RM2.54b RM2.72b RM2.77b RM2.84b RM2.92b RM3.01b RM3.10b RM3.20b RM3.31b RM3.43b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x3 Analyst x4 Est @ 2.42% Est @ 2.77% Est @ 3.02% Est @ 3.19% Est @ 3.32% Est @ 3.40% Est @ 3.46% Present Value (MYR, Millions) Discounted @ 9.6% RM2.3k RM2.3k RM2.1k RM2.0k RM1.8k RM1.7k RM1.6k RM1.5k RM1.5k RM1.4k ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = RM18b After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.6%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = RM3.4b× (1 + 3.6%) ÷ (9.6%– 3.6%) = RM59b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= RM59b÷ ( 1 + 9.6%)10= RM24b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is RM42b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of RM3.7, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 30% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at PETRONAS Chemicals Group Berhad as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.015. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for PETRONAS Chemicals Group Berhad Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Chemicals market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Malaysian market. Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%. Threat Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Malaysian market. Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For PETRONAS Chemicals Group Berhad, we've put together three further factors you should assess: Risks: We feel that you should assess the 2 warning signs for PETRONAS Chemicals Group Berhad we've flagged before making an investment in the company. Future Earnings: How does PCHEM's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the KLSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
