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Yahoo
23-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gas prices rise in Canada; carbon tax elimination expected to net drivers savings
Canada's gas price average has climbed to its highest level in a month, according to data from Kalibrate. At the same time, the U.S. national average as measured by GasBuddy has fallen for a fourth straight week. The Canada-wide average, spanning nearly 80 cities, rose to $1.588 per litre of regular fuel on March 20, from $1.548 on March 13. Brandon, Man. booked the biggest weekly increase, at 14.9 cents per litre. Calgary, and Kelowna, B.C., saw prices increase 13.7 cents per litre and 11.8 cents per litre, respectively. Prime Minister Mark Carney's government has made the decision to cut the consumer carbon tax to zero per cent in April. Drivers can expect to see a near-immediate price drop at the pump. According to Randall Bartlett, deputy chief economist at Desjardins, drivers should see an immediate drop of 18 cents per litre on April 1 in provinces where the carbon tax has been in effect. Carney is reportedly poised to trigger an early election this weekend for an expected vote on April 28. His chief rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, has long called for an end to the carbon tax. Follow Yahoo Finance Canada for more weekly gas price updates. Scroll below to find your nearest city. (All figures in CAD cents) Location Mar. 13 Mar. 20 Price Change Canada Average (V) 154.8 158.8 4 WHITEHORSE 184.9 174.9 -10 VANCOUVER* 178.2 184.4 6.2 VICTORIA 179.6 179.6 0 PRINCE GEORGE 159.6 159.2 -0.4 KAMLOOPS 164.9 166.9 2 KELOWNA 156.8 168.6 11.8 FORT ST. JOHN 165.4 161.4 -4 ABBOTSFORD 161.9 169.9 8 YELLOWKNIFE 162.9 162.9 0 CALGARY* 142.2 155.9 13.7 RED DEER 141.9 149.5 7.6 EDMONTON 142.7 150.6 7.9 LETHBRIDGE 144.7 145.4 0.7 LLOYDMINSTER 145 147 2 GRANDE PRAIRIE 151.9 151.9 0 REGINA* 153.7 152.7 -1 SASKATOON 153.7 153.7 0 PRINCE ALBERT 153.4 152.8 -0.6 MOOSE JAW 154.9 153.9 -1 WINNIPEG * 151.9 153.2 1.3 BRANDON 135 149.9 14.9 CITY OF TORONTO* 151.4 153.3 1.9 BRAMPTON 151.4 153.4 2 ETOBICOKE 150.5 153 2.5 MISSISSAUGA 150.2 152.2 2 NORTH YORK 151.8 153.7 1.9 SCARBOROUGH 151 153.3 2.3 VAUGHAN/MARKHAM 151.6 153.5 1.9 OTTAWA 150.9 153.6 2.7 KINGSTON 135.9 148.2 12.3 PETERBOROUGH 141 146 5 WINDSOR 150.4 152.5 2.1 LONDON 150.7 153.3 2.6 SUDBURY 154.4 147.6 -6.8 SAULT STE MARIE 151.8 150.3 -1.5 THUNDER BAY 152.8 158.8 6 NORTH BAY 156.4 150.1 -6.3 TIMMINS 159.9 159.5 -0.4 HAMILTON 149.6 152.2 2.6 ST. CATHARINES 148.5 151.3 2.8 BARRIE 150.4 152.8 2.4 BRANTFORD 145.8 148 2.2 GUELPH 150.7 152 1.3 KITCHENER 150.1 150.8 0.7 OSHAWA 151.3 153.1 1.8 SARNIA 141.7 149.1 7.4 MONTRÉAL* 155.3 157.8 2.5 QUÉBEC 154.5 153.8 -0.7 SHERBROOKE 152.9 151.8 -1.1 GASPÉ 162.4 162.4 0 CHICOUTIMI 139.4 138.4 -1 RIMOUSKI 154.4 154.4 0 TROIS RIVIÈRES 145.3 141.9 -3.4 DRUMMONDVILLE 151 151 0 VAL D'OR 160.9 159.6 -1.3 GATINEAU 143.5 139.9 -3.6 SAINT JOHN* 157.7 154 -3.7 FREDERICTON 158.2 154.7 -3.5 MONCTON 158.3 154.6 -3.7 BATHURST 156.9 153.2 -3.7 EDMUNDSTON 157.2 153.5 -3.7 MIRAMICHI 158.8 156 -2.8 CAMPBELLTON 156.9 155.9 -1 SUSSEX 157.9 154.7 3.2 WOODSTOCK 159.4 155.9 -3.5 HALIFAX* 157.1 155.3 -1.8 SYDNEY 159.1 157.2 -1.9 YARMOUTH 158.1 156.3 -1.8 TRURO 158.3 156.4 -1.9 KENTVILLE 157.7 155.8 -1.9 NEW GLASGOW 158.3 156.4 -1.9 CHARLOTTETOWN* 161.8 161.8 0 ST JOHNS* 165.6 165.6 0 GANDER 169.4 165.6 -3.8 LABRADOR CITY 167.6 167.6 0 CORNER BROOK 166.7 166.6 -0.1 GRAND FALLS 169.4 166.9 -2.5 SOURCE: KALIBRATE • All figures in CAD cents (*) Denotes markets used in Volume Weighted Canada Average Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jefflagerquist. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android.
CBC
19-03-2025
- Business
- CBC
Consumers could find 'meaningful savings' as carbon tax ends: Desjardins
Social Sharing Canadians can expect to feel the absence of the consumer carbon price at the pump immediately but it may take longer to notice a difference in the price of other goods, a new report released Wednesday suggests. The analysis by Desjardins Economics comes less than a week after Prime Minister Mark Carney ordered that the consumer levy be set to zero on April 1. The carbon price came with a quarterly rebate to offset the cost of inflation; the final rebate will come in April. The report suggests that move will push overall inflation down over the next year as a result of Ottawa's decision to kill the consumer price on carbon pollution. That could give the Bank of Canada a bit of breathing room on lowering interest rates and supporting the Canadian economy through the trade war with the United States. A large part of that is because of gas prices. Randall Bartlett, deputy chief economist at Desjardins, said the change means motorists in provinces using federal carbon pricing should notice a drop of almost 18 cents in the price of a litre of gasoline, or about $9 less to fill a 50 L tank. If the planned hike in the carbon price had gone through, gas prices would have gone up another three cents, instead of down. "In those jurisdictions, it is going to be very visible and meaningful savings for Canadian households," said Bartlett. WATCH | What does the end of the carbon tax mean for your wallet?: What does the cancellation of the carbon tax mean for your wallet? 1 day ago Duration 1:53 British Columbians will soon have to pay less when they fill up their gas tanks. The province and the federal government are cancelling the consumer carbon tax, effective April 1. But with the disappearance of the associated tax credit, will the cancellation put money back into British Columbian's pockets? Desjardins's analysis also predicts the price of natural gas will fall 12.8 per cent between March and April. The federal consumer carbon price is active in all provinces and territories but British Columbia, Quebec and Northwest Territories, which have equivalent systems of their own. B.C. announced plans to kill its provincial consumer carbon price in the wake of Carney's announcement. The consumer levy is charged on the purchase of more than two dozen input fuels including gasoline, natural gas, propane and coal. The amount of the charge is based on the greenhouse gas emissions of each when burned, sitting at $85 per tonne currently. Desjardins forecasts that Canadians will see inflation cool more gradually at the grocery store as lower transportation costs tied to the end of consumer price on pollution filter down to the cost of food. Tu Nguyen, an economist at consulting firm RSM, said just as the consumer carbon price took time to ramp up, it may take a while for Canadians to see the impact of its absence. Gasoline prices, for example, depend not only on government tax policy but on global oil prices, which are also affected by shifting levels of demand and interruptions to production. "Those factors are likely to have a bigger impact overall on gas prices than the carbon tax," Nguyen said. The Desjardins report projects that, in the absence of federal consumer carbon pricing, inflation in April will be 0.7 per cent lower than it would have been otherwise. That's expected to bring the annual inflation rate down to 2.1 per cent for the month. February's inflation figures, released Tuesday, showed a surprise jump in inflation to 2.6 per cent, driven largely by the end of Ottawa's temporary sales tax break. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem also estimated a 0.7 per cent drop in inflation due to the elimination of consumer carbon pricing when he spoke to the House of Commons finance committee in May 2024. Bartlett said inflation should continue easing off at the same rate for roughly a year, and that could "offset" upward pressure on inflation caused by Canada's retaliatory tariffs in response to U.S. levies and a weaker Canadian dollar driving import prices higher. Nguyen said she thinks the coming price spike from the tariff battle will "outweigh" the impact of ending the carbon tax. She said she sees prices on perishable goods at the grocery store rising first, followed by appliances and other durable goods in the months after. Desjardins had projected that, with consumer carbon pricing in place, annual inflation would rise to more than three per cent by the end of 2025. It's now forecasting inflation of around 2.5 per cent. After the Bank of Canada's interest rate cut last week, Macklem suggested that while monetary policy could "smooth" the impacts of the trade war, the central bank remains focused on keeping inflation in check. A lower inflation rate in the near term tied due to the end of consumer carbon pricing could give the Bank of Canada a bit more freedom to respond to the economic hits while worrying a bit less about inflation, Bartlett said.
Yahoo
10-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Very difficult position': Bank of Canada expected to cut rate amid trade uncertainty
OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement arrives on Wednesday in a cloud of uncertainty thanks to a shifting trade war with the United States. Most economists expect the central bank will deliver another quarter-point rate cut while it waits to see how long the dispute with Canada's largest trading partner lasts. The Bank of Canada faces a difficult task: setting monetary policy at a time when inflation has shown signs of stubbornness and the economy picks up steam, while risks of a sharp downturn tied to U.S. tariffs loom on the horizon. 'It's a very difficult position for the Bank of Canada to be in,' said Randall Bartlett, Desjardins Group deputy chief economist, in an interview. Even as U.S. President Donald Trump followed through on his promises to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods on March 4, the exact nature of those tariffs have shifted with a series of pauses and amendments in the days since. "Who knows what this could look like from day-to-day? It's almost anyone's guess," Bartlett said. There will be harsh consequences for the Canadian economy in the event of a prolonged trade war with the U.S. Inflation is likely to rise in the near-term from the trade disruptions, Bartlett said, and job losses in hard-hit sectors could quickly pile up if those industries don't receive tariff reprieves. Desjardins expects Canada would fall into a recession by mid-year if steep tariffs remain in place. That's a far cry from the trajectory the Canadian economy had been on heading into 2025. There were signs late last year that previous interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada were starting to filter through the economy. A renewed Canadian consumer led to a surge in retail activity to close out 2024 and suggested that, barring a major disruption, 2025 was going to be a year of recovery. After six consecutive cuts to bring the Bank of Canada's interest rate down to three per cent, Bartlett said the "economic tea leaves" should have been telling the central bank to pause its easing cycle and wait to see where inflation and the economy settled in the coming months. "But then obviously we got hit with the tariff shock on March 4 and all bets are off in terms of what that means ... for the Bank of Canada," Bartlett said. Financial markets were largely tilted toward a quarter-point rate cut as of Friday, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before tariffs went ahead, markets were showing odds of a hold or cut were essentially a toss-up. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech on Feb. 21 that, if tariffs are broad-based and long-lasting, "there won't be a bounce back" in the Canadian economy as there was during the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. It would be a "structural change," he warned. Macklem went on to explain that the central bank can't lean against both weak growth and rising inflation tied to a tariff shock at the same time. He said the central bank plans to use its policy rate to help "smooth" the impact on the economy while keeping inflation expectations well anchored to the two per cent target. Andrew Grantham, senior economist with CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note to clients on Friday that the central bank "can't solve the tariff issue" with rate cuts, but it can help the economy transition through the turbulence. CIBC expects the bank to deliver a quarter-point cut on Wednesday, lowering the benchmark rate to 2.75 per cent, with more cuts to follow this year if trade uncertainty lasts. Bartlett said he expected the Bank of Canada would err on the side of providing a bit of support to the Canadian economy with a 25-basis-point cut, but hold back from anything larger as it waits to see how long tariffs stay in place in the coming weeks. He warned the central bank will be constrained in how low it can take its policy rate, in part because of the flagging Canadian dollar. The loonie is vulnerable not only to hits from the trade war, but also to a widening differential between policy rates in Canada and the U.S., Bartlett said. If the Bank of Canada drops its policy rate too sharply, the loonie could fall as well, leading to a bigger surge in inflation on food and other goods imported from the U.S. This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 10, 2025. Craig Lord, The Canadian Press
Yahoo
10-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada may overshoot population targets, with complications looming: Desjardins
Canada's population growth likely slowed at the end of 2024, but the government remains 'far from achieving' the trimmed targets it set last year, economists at Desjardins Group say. Government data show the pace of new non-permanent resident (NPR) arrivals slowed in the later part of 2024, Desjardins economic analyst L.J. Valencia and deputy chief economist Randall Bartlett wrote in a report last week, but the proportion of NPRs in the population is likely to 'diverge significantly from the government's optimistic projections' of five per cent by the end of 2026. 'Despite slight revisions in the short term, our long-term population projection suggests that the government will require more aggressive reductions in NPR numbers to reach its ambitious target by the end of 2026,' they wrote. Concerns within the corporate and post-secondary education sectors could also influence Ottawa's commitment to its policies, the writers note, while the trade-war threat adds further complexity. The pace of Canada's recent population growth has been a key political issue, with the impact of that growth felt across various sectors, housing in particular, spurring the federal government to sharply reduce immigration targets in the years ahead. The current state of non-permanent resident (NPR) inflows suggests that the Canadian government is far from achieving its NPR target of 5 per cent of total Valencia and Randall Bartlett, Desjardins Group Desjardins estimates the number of new NPRs in Canada was likely down by around 468,000 year-over-year in 2024 — 25 per cent lower than in 2023. It says this was largely due to a drop in new international students of roughly 280,000 (38 per cent). But despite the drop in new NPR arrivals, Valencia and Bartlett write that 'net NPR numbers rose by almost 40,000' by the fourth quarter of 2024 — 100,000 more than both Desjardins and the government had previously forecast, and 140,000 more than numbers modelled by the Bank of Canada. 'Our revised estimates suggest that the government's reduced NPR targets and the associated policy changes are starting to stem new NPR arrivals,' the report said. 'However, the current state of NPR inflows suggests that the Canadian government is far from achieving its NPR target of 5 per cent of total population.' The authors say the proportion of NPRs in the population at the end of 2024 was likely around 7.5 per cent. The slowing pace of new NPR arrivals as well as limits on new permanent residents that will take effect this year 'suggest that population growth should slow considerably in Canada,' they write — but Desjardins remains 'skeptical that the Government of Canada will be able to reach its target for admissions of newcomers, particularly NPRs.' The report notes that Canadian businesses, which have collectively raised concerns about labour issues brought on by a population slowdown, might pressure Ottawa to adjust course. Post-secondary institutions are also suffering financially due to reduced international student fees collected. 'In addition, the federal government has struggled to meet some policy objectives in the past, and the prospect of meeting its new immigration targets is especially daunting given the administrative challenges associated with executing such a significant policy shift.' Valencia and Bartlett also observe that the ongoing tariff narrative could lead to a recession, reducing demand for labour and consequently dampening immigration. 'While this would be an unintended consequence of an undesirable outcome for the Canadian economy, it could help the federal government reach its population targets more quickly,' they wrote. John MacFarlane is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jmacf. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android. Sign in to access your portfolio
