Latest news with #RandyStapilus
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Budgeting into the unknown
Oregon's economic forecast could set the tone not just for the remainder of the legislative session but for the campaign season to come, commentator Randy Stapilus writes. (Tim Carpenter/Kansas Reflector) The switch has flipped on the last stretch of this year's Oregon legislative session and the central dynamic for the last and busiest phase ahead has been set. So, possibly, has the campaign dynamic for next year's legislative elections. Part of it involves a raucous economic debate over the administration of Donald Trump. Most of the rest concerns how little predictability exists for conditions going forward. The kickoff was a standard trigger of the Oregon legislative schedule, the release of the May Economic and Revenue Forecast from the Office of Economic Analysis. The last such report during this year's session, it will form the basis for the legislature's decisions on how much to spend and how much income should be brought in — through existing or new taxes. Normally, it can provide a clear direction for inking in policies and budgeting plans evolving up to this point. The headline from this new report does say that less money is likely to be wrung out of existing state taxes than had been expected in previous estimates — a decrease not in revenue but in what was previously expected. But it also emphasized a deep well of unknowns. The report's summary said it 'comes at a time of exceptionally heightened uncertainty. Not only is it too soon to understand how the economy is responding to actions already taken — but, more broadly, the ultimate scope of critical policy decisions remains unknown. For example, even preliminary economic impacts from tariffs are unlikely to materialize in vital statistics such as employment or consumer prices for another month or two. Further, final details on tax reforms and budget reductions are only vaguely coming into view, and the eventual effective tariff rate will depend on the success of negotiations which have not yet occurred.' The report did not specifically say a recession is likely — it even included a number of reasons it may not happen — but figured chances of a downturn at 25%, a possibility higher than usual. The uncertainty is key. One forecaster said, 'I can't remember more tumultuous circumstances just going into producing this particular forecast.' Government budgeters typically respond to uncertainty by budgeting lower amounts, to protect against revenue shortfalls. Here is how the Hillsboro School District described the fallout: 'What this means is that the Legislature has less discretionary revenue with which to make new investments in the 2025-27 biennium. That, coupled with ongoing uncertainty about federal funding to states for a variety of initiatives and programs, will likely limit additional support being directed to K-12 education.' Coming weeks will be a budgeting session for gamblers: How confident are you of what conditions will apply at the end of this year and a year from now? Do you cut state spending, or raise taxes, when one or both may not be necessary? Those concerns may come against a background in which the state may be called on to help backfill long-expected federal help which is being withdrawn. The Republican take on the budget appears to position this year's budgeting cycle essentially like any other, with problems a function of the majority party's inability to budget well enough. Senator Bruce Starr, R-Dundee, said for example, 'This should be a wake-up call. With a half-billion-dollar shortfall, lawmakers must focus on core services and cut the waste.' Representative E. Werner Reschke, R-Malin, said in a constituent newsletter, 'Democrats need a doom and gloom message so that they can justify their plans for tax increases. If the headlines had been 'State to receive record revenues for upcoming biennium' do you think their new taxes message would be accepted by Oregonians? Of course not.' The problem with those approaches is the unusual level of uncertainty in the latest estimates, something sharply different from past cycles. But they are likely to emerge in next year's campaigns. Democrats argued the circumstances are unusual, pointing to the Trump Administration, and especially its tariffs and spending actions, as the prime mover of uncertainty. House Speaker Julie Fahey, for example, said, 'today's revenue forecast confirms what economists have been telling us: the Trump administration's reckless decisions are damaging our economy. … Oregon is particularly sensitive to the fallout from federal trade policies that have been changing on a whim since Trump's inauguration.' Look for the remaining month-plus of the legislative session to turn into a debate over the effect the Trump administration is having on Oregon. The contours of that discussion will likely shape politics in Oregon and beyond all the way to next November. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Yahoo
24-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Canaries in the chair: Frequent party leadership changes could be sign of deeper issues
Columnist Randy Stapilus suggests (Getty Images) In recent weeks, both of Oregon's major political parties have changed leadership, under very different circumstances. Party leadership is only a small part of what makes the candidates under their banner successful, but it can be a coal mine canary of sorts, an indicator of underlying issues or strengths. Over the last generation, Democrats have been faring gradually better in Oregon, and Republicans less well. What might we learn from a look at party leadership? Start with the Democrats. They have had three chairs in this decade. Carla 'KC' Hanson, following five years leading the Multnomah County Democrats, was elected to two-year terms in 2019 and 2021. In 2023, she departed and the party's vice chair, Rosa Colquitt, who also had worked for years in various positions in the party organization, was elected to the top spot. This year, the state Democratic Central Committee met in Corvallis on March 16 and in a contested election replaced her with a new chair, Nathan Soltz, who at age 27 happens to be the youngest person to hold that job. He isn't a newcomer to the party organization, however. Soltz started work with the Democrats in Jackson County (one of Oregon's most competitive) a decade ago, has worked in labor organizing and in the Legislature and was elected state party secretary two years ago. There's something to be said for injecting new blood in leadership positions from time to time (and Soltz may well provide some of that). But party organizations also can benefit from leaders who know how things work and understand how to get along with the various interests and groups that make up a large party, and manage to avoid conflict and controversy (other than when directed at the opposition). Over to the Republicans. Six people have led the Oregon Republican Party since 2020. These years opened with a period of some stability under Bill Currier, a mayor of Adair Village who had worked in various party positions for years before his election as chair in February 2015. Six years later, shortly after releasing a statement (that many party leaders had backed) saying the Jan. 6, 2021 attempted insurrection in Washington, D.C. was a 'false flag' operation (drawing complaints from within and outside the party), he lost a re-election bid to state Sen. Dallas Heard of Myrtle Creek. After serving just over a year, Heard departed after complaining about conflict within the party, including 'communist psychological warfare tactics.' (Others in the party said a flashpoint was debate over whether to open the party's primary to non-Republicans.) The vice-chair, former legislator Herman Baertschiger, served as acting chair for about four months but then quit. The job next went to Justin Hwang, a Gresham restaurant owner and former legislative candidate who had become vice-chair of the state party only three months before. He held the job until February of this year, providing some stability. During Hwang's tenure, Oregon Republicans won in 2022 — and then lost in 2024 — a second congressional seat and legislative races that temporarily ended Democrats' supermajority control in the House and Senate. When the post came open for election early this year, a range of candidates contended, including former Senate candidate Jo Rae Perkins (the incumbent party secretary), Washington County Republican leader Gabriel Buehler, as well as a legislative candidate and a city councilor. It was won from outside: A Columbia County pastor and insurance agent, Jerry Cummings. He prevailed after saying the party should focus less on hot-button issues to 'reach beyond the Republican base and do a better job of presenting a message that makes us contenders around the state.' But on April 8, the Oregon Journalism Project reported on court records from a long-running divorce and custody case and more recent lawsuits filed by creditors. The legal records included accusations from Cummings' ex-wife that he engaged in sexual violence, allegations Cummings denied. He soon resigned, and the job once again went to the party's vice chair, Connie Whelchel of Deschutes County. Considering that the party chair takes the lead in party organization, hiring, planning for campaigns and more, these rapid-fire turnovers, frequent controversies and overall lack of stability could have contributed to the party's gradual weakening in the state during the last couple of decades. That's not all, of course. A great deal of political strength in the party is held by people and groups outside the Oregon voting mainstream. But problems with stable leadership aren't helping the party either. They may do well to consider why the job seems hard to fill with the kind of leaders they need. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
