Latest news with #RealClearPolitics
Sydney Morning Herald
16 hours ago
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
Why ‘TACO' is the secret to Trump's resilience
Judging by his reaction to a reporter's question this past week, President Donald Trump doesn't like it when you ask him about 'TACO' — the reported Wall Street acronym for 'Trump Always Chickens Out,' an assumption that makes it safe to be in the market even when the president threatens Europe and China with intensifications of his trade war. Even if he dislikes the barnyard-fowl comparison, though, the acronym gets at something that's crucial to Trump's political resilience. The willingness to swerve and backpedal and contradict himself is a big part of what keeps the president viable, and the promise of chickening out is part of Trump's implicit pitch to swing voters — reassuring them that anything extreme is also provisional, that he's always testing limits (on policy, on power) but also generally willing to pull back. A case study: Just six weeks ago, I wrote a column describing the second Trump presidency as headed for political failure, while noting that a course correction was still possible. That caveat was debatable, since Trump's post-'Liberation Day' polling was starting to look like President Joe Biden's polling numbers after the botched Afghanistan withdrawal. Once Biden hit the low 40s in the RealClearPolitics average, he never again reached 45 per cent approval: Some presidents just lose their mandate early and never get it back. But since that column appeared, Trump has bobbed and weaved away from his most extreme China tariffs, he has achieved some kind of separation from Elon Musk and he has started complaining about 'crazy' Russian President Vladimir Putin while casting himself as the great would-be peacemaker of the Middle East. And lo and behold, his poll numbers have floated back up, not to genuine popularity but to a perfectly normal level for a president in a polarised country. Loading With a different president, you might say that this recovery happened despite the White House's various backtracks and reversals (plus various rebukes from the judiciary). But with Trump, it's more apt to say that it's happened because of these setbacks and recalibrations. Seeing Trump both check himself and be checked by others is what an important group of voters expect from his presidency. They like that Trump pressures institutions they distrust or dislike, from official Washington to elite universities, but their approval is contingent on a dynamic interaction, where he accepts counterpressure and retreats. Ask Trump loyalists about this pattern, and they'll often insist that it's all just part of the Plan — that the president's apparent setbacks and volte-faces are just indicators of a strategic flexibility that was present all along. So, the seeming daftness of the Liberation Day tariffs is actually a brilliant way to get the markets to accept a more modest but still substantial tariff regime. Or letting Musk run wild with implausible promises about Department of Government Efficiency cost savings is just a way to open the hood of Cabinet agencies and let the president figure out how to control his own executive branch. In some cases, these arguments can be partially persuasive. I think Trump's foreign policy, especially, is fundamentally improvisational in a way that's better suited than some of the more consistent alternatives to the difficult world we now inhabit. Even the seeming shamelessness of his swings can be defensible adaptations to complicated circumstances: It can make sense to try to negotiate with Putin and also to threaten Russia if the negotiations stall out — as it might make sense to be hawkish toward a stronger Iran in 2018 and conciliatory toward a weaker Iran in 2025, and so on.
The Age
16 hours ago
- Business
- The Age
Why ‘TACO' is the secret to Trump's resilience
Judging by his reaction to a reporter's question this past week, President Donald Trump doesn't like it when you ask him about 'TACO' — the reported Wall Street acronym for 'Trump Always Chickens Out,' an assumption that makes it safe to be in the market even when the president threatens Europe and China with intensifications of his trade war. Even if he dislikes the barnyard-fowl comparison, though, the acronym gets at something that's crucial to Trump's political resilience. The willingness to swerve and backpedal and contradict himself is a big part of what keeps the president viable, and the promise of chickening out is part of Trump's implicit pitch to swing voters — reassuring them that anything extreme is also provisional, that he's always testing limits (on policy, on power) but also generally willing to pull back. A case study: Just six weeks ago, I wrote a column describing the second Trump presidency as headed for political failure, while noting that a course correction was still possible. That caveat was debatable, since Trump's post-'Liberation Day' polling was starting to look like President Joe Biden's polling numbers after the botched Afghanistan withdrawal. Once Biden hit the low 40s in the RealClearPolitics average, he never again reached 45 per cent approval: Some presidents just lose their mandate early and never get it back. But since that column appeared, Trump has bobbed and weaved away from his most extreme China tariffs, he has achieved some kind of separation from Elon Musk and he has started complaining about 'crazy' Russian President Vladimir Putin while casting himself as the great would-be peacemaker of the Middle East. And lo and behold, his poll numbers have floated back up, not to genuine popularity but to a perfectly normal level for a president in a polarised country. Loading With a different president, you might say that this recovery happened despite the White House's various backtracks and reversals (plus various rebukes from the judiciary). But with Trump, it's more apt to say that it's happened because of these setbacks and recalibrations. Seeing Trump both check himself and be checked by others is what an important group of voters expect from his presidency. They like that Trump pressures institutions they distrust or dislike, from official Washington to elite universities, but their approval is contingent on a dynamic interaction, where he accepts counterpressure and retreats. Ask Trump loyalists about this pattern, and they'll often insist that it's all just part of the Plan — that the president's apparent setbacks and volte-faces are just indicators of a strategic flexibility that was present all along. So, the seeming daftness of the Liberation Day tariffs is actually a brilliant way to get the markets to accept a more modest but still substantial tariff regime. Or letting Musk run wild with implausible promises about Department of Government Efficiency cost savings is just a way to open the hood of Cabinet agencies and let the president figure out how to control his own executive branch. In some cases, these arguments can be partially persuasive. I think Trump's foreign policy, especially, is fundamentally improvisational in a way that's better suited than some of the more consistent alternatives to the difficult world we now inhabit. Even the seeming shamelessness of his swings can be defensible adaptations to complicated circumstances: It can make sense to try to negotiate with Putin and also to threaten Russia if the negotiations stall out — as it might make sense to be hawkish toward a stronger Iran in 2018 and conciliatory toward a weaker Iran in 2025, and so on.
American Military News
2 days ago
- Politics
- American Military News
Trump admin unveils Constitution training course for top gov't employees
President Donald Trump's administration is preparing to launch a new 80-hour training course on the U.S. Constitution and the government's 'founding ideals' for Senior Executive Service employees. According to an Office of Personnel and Management memo obtained by Real Clear Politics, the syllabus for the Trump administration's new training course includes an emphasis on the U.S. Constitution, 'Founding ideals of our government,' and the 47th president's executive orders. Real Clear Politics reported that the U.S. Office of Personnel and Management's new training program will require individuals who want to become Senior Executive Service employees to complete 80 hours of video training. The outlet noted that the training will conclude with two days of in-person training in Washington, D.C. The Office of Personnel and Management's website states that Senior Executive Service employees 'serve in key positions just below top Presidential appointees.' The website describes Senior Executive Service employees as the 'major link' between presidential appointees and the rest of the government's workforce. The website adds, 'They operate and oversee nearly every government activity in approximately 75 Federal agencies.' READ MORE: Video: Canada 'considering' offer to become 51st state for free Golden Dome, Trump says According to Real Clear Politics, the new Office of Personnel and Management's training for Senior Executive Service employees is expected to launch in September and will affect agencies throughout the federal government under the Trump administration. The memo obtained by Real Clear Politics explained that the goal of the new training is to 'ensure that SES officials uphold the Constitution and the rule of law and effectively serve the American people.' Real Clear Politics reported that the memo outlining the upcoming training course for Senior Executive Service employees is part of the Office of Personnel and Management's 'Executive Core Qualifications.' The outlet noted that diversity, equity, and inclusion metrics have been removed by the Trump administration and that new Senior Executive Service employees will be selected on competence, merit, and 'dedication to our Nation's Founding ideals.' According to the memo, the Trump administration is also planning to require each agency's Executive Review Boards to add a majority of employees who have not served as career government employees. Real Clear Politics reported that the Executive Review Boards handle the hiring, assessment, and management of Senior Executive Service employees. The memo noted, 'These requirements ensure that effective implementation of the President's policies is at the forefront of agency executive management decisions.'
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Karl Rove Says This ‘Muddled Mess' Trump Policy Will Cost The GOP Next Year's Midterms
Longtime GOP strategist and commenter Karl Rove predicts President Donald Trump's tariff policies will cost Republicans next year's midterms, calling the administration's messaging 'a muddled mess.' 'The story isn't good for the GOP,' Rove said in a column published in The Wall Street Journal Wednesday. Rove warned fellow Republicans that Trump's 'tariff demands are weighing him down' as his general job approval sinks and voters disapprove of his handling of the economy, citing data from RealClearPolitics. Trump and Rove have clashed in recent weeks as the Bush administration's senior adviser became critical of the president's strategy. Last month Rove said Trump's approval ratings are in 'bad shape' when it comes to the economy. He also appeared on Fox advising the president to cooperate with the courts in the Kilmar Abrego Garcia deportation case. Trump responded on Truth Social by calling Rove 'a total Loser who's been wrong about almost everything!' Now Rove is warning Republicans that 'the president's frenetic back-and-forth on the subject, declaring a trade war one day then postponing new tariffs the next, leaves voters confused.' A more recent example of Trump's on-again, off-again tariff policy happened last week when he threatened to impose a 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union. That threat was backtracked on Sunday when EU heads asked to extend his deadline for trade talks until July 9. 'Maybe these apparent flip-flops were all planned by the master of the 'Art of the Deal.' But to many, it looks like cleanup on aisle six,' Rove said. Rove's sentiment was felt in Wall Street as investors came up with a new term to describe Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs, called 'TACO,' which is code for 'Trump Always Chickens Out.' 'The administration's messaging is a muddled mess,' Rove said, telling Republicans Trump should look towards 'reciprocity,' a policy he describes as 'if countries lower their tariffs, we'll lower ours.' Rove ended the column by saying 'voters won't blame foreign countries for higher prices or fewer goods. They'll blame Donald Trump and his Republican Party.' Karl Rove Undeterred In New WSJ Editorial After Trump Called Him A 'Total Loser' Karl Rove On Trump's Economy: 'He's In Bad Shape' Karl Rove Warns Trump Of The 1 Move That Will Backfire
Wall Street Journal
5 days ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Tariffs May Cost the GOP in 2026
To do well in next year's midterms, Republicans have to confront two messaging challenges now. Last week this column addressed the first—Medicaid. This week I'm turning my attention to the second—tariffs. The story isn't good for the GOP. While President Trump's general job-approval numbers in the RealClearPolitics average on Wednesday were 47.8% approve to 49.7% disapprove, on handling the economy he was at 42.3% approve to 52.8% disapprove.
