Latest news with #Reform-curious
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Jeremy Corbyn can save Britain from Starmer
While Keir Starmer's Government is deeply unpopular, a source of consolation has been that things are even worse for the Opposition. Polling by YouGov earlier this week had the Tories in fourth place, the first time that has happened since the final, shambling days of the May government in 2019. One projection from that data gave the Conservatives just 22 Westminster seats. But the hole in which the West's most enduringly successful party finds itself can't be detached from wider, systemic issues. In that same poll, Labour recorded just 22 percent of the popular vote. At the next general election, the share for the big two looks likely to hit a post-war low. Yet while ongoing Conservative failure can be attributed to the rise of Reform, no similar rationalisation exists for Labour. True, the Greens have continued their slow and steady rise, but that doesn't account for the governing party falling to what would be their lowest vote share since 1918. Fundamentally, the electorate is disenchanted with the political process, and the old loyalties aren't just eroding, but close to being vanquished. Reform getting over the line in Runcorn, despite Labour's extraordinary advantage with data and postal votes, is a testament to that. The Cheshire constituency was Labour's 16th safest. All of which suggests that, rather than this being the nadir for Keir Starmer, things could deteriorate further. The Green Party is presently in the foothills of a leadership contest, with the populist Zack Polanski facing off against the Countryfile-coded Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns (both represent rural, formerly Conservative constituencies). Each side has a pitch which is coherent, but it is Polanski's offer which should most concern Labour HQ. His view is that, as the Government moves to the Right, in order to retain a growing cohort of Reform-curious voters, the Greens can pick off seats in more liberal, metropolitan areas. This isn't entirely speculative. The Greens came second in forty constituencies last July, all but one of which now have Labour MPs. These are all in major urban areas – from Sheffield Central and Liverpool Riverside, to Bristol West and Manchester Gorton. Yet it is in London where the prize glitters brightest, with the Greens finishing second behind Labour in over two dozen seats. In theory, they could squeeze those areas much as Reform usurped Labour in places like Doncaster and Durham. Just as the median Reform voter doesn't like Starmer's historic europhilia, or his purported commitment to the liberal zeitgeist on issues like migration, the capital's electors don't support welfare cuts alongside massive increases to defence spending, nor Starmer's increasingly belligerent rhetoric on multiculturalism. While Ramsay and Chowns' bid for co-leadership makes some sense, with both offering a continuity of recent success, Polanski would seem best placed to take advantage of that. Then there's the seemingly perennial issue of a new Left party, referenced by Jeremy Corbyn in a speech he recently gave in Huddersfield. Speaking at a gathering of 'The People's Alliance for Change and Equality', a group of campaigners and independents in the Borough of Kirklees, including Iqbal Mohamed, the independent MP for Dewsbury and Batley, the former Labour leader was clear: 'by next year's local elections – long before that I hope – we're going to have something in place that is very clear and everyone will want to be part of and support.' The fact that Corbyn uttered those words alongside Jamie Driscoll, who came second in last year's North-east mayoral race, and Salma Yaqoob, a stalwart of Stop the War, indicates conversations are relatively advanced. Just weeks earlier, Corbyn spoke at Foyles alongside Andrew Feinstein. The latter stood as an independent in Keir Starmer's constituency of Holborn and St Pancras last July, finishing second. Other figures in the orbit of such a party, or even wider coalition, might include Leanne Mohammed, who almost overwhelmed Wes Streeting in Ilford last July, and Faiza Shaheen, who stood as an independent in Chingford. Any new Left formation could potentially draw on hundreds of figures like this: in contention to win locally, and at least substantial enough to cost Labour seats. If you thought this month's local elections were bad for the Conservatives, don't be surprised if something similar happens to Labour in twelve months. Not only will the Welsh Senedd be up for grabs, with Plaid Cymru and Reform set to make major gains at Cardiff, but authorities across urban England – including every council across Greater London – will be contested too. The circumstances could not be more favourable for parties and campaigners to Starmer's Left. The liberal media has subdued the conversation for months, not least because it's their man in Number 10. But the simple truth is this: all that stands between Labour faring as badly as the Tories in the polls is whether the Left, and the Greens, can build a coordinated electoral alternative. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
New Statesman
08-05-2025
- Politics
- New Statesman
Can Ed Miliband stand the heat?
Photo by. Last week a trade union general secretary almost called for the replacement of a cabinet minister. You might have missed it. The interview was on the day of the local elections and attention soon moved to two familiar sights: Nigel Farage toasting his victories and the Labour Party feuding over its defeats. Since becoming Unite's general secretary, Sharon Graham has mostly eschewed the power plays that defined her predecessor Len McCluskey (who treated shadow cabinet ministers as chess pieces to be moved around). But here is what she told Times Radio about the job of Energy Secretary: 'Somebody needs to be in that post that believes in Britain, believes in these skills, believes in the national security of the county'. The seeming implication was that this person is not Ed Miliband – who Graham has accused of having 'no plan' to stop oil and gas workers becoming 'the miners of net zero' (Unite declined to comment when I asked whether Graham was indeed calling for his replacement). On Tuesday I detailed the pincer movement against Rachel Reeves – the soft left, Blue Labour and the Red Wall Group have all targeted the Chancellor's economic approach. But Miliband, as a close friend notes, faces a hostile coalition of his own: 'the trade unions, Tony Blair and the right-wing press' (a triumvirate aligned on little else). Confronted by this, Miliband's allies draw solace from two sources: the voters and the Prime Minister. In recent weeks, Labour MPs have been assailed – verbally and electorally – by the former. As a backbencher puts it to me: 'One of the consequences to the heavy-handed approach to getting MPs out campaigning is that we've been outside the bubble and talking to lots of very, very angry and pissed-off voters'. Back in Westminster, MPs recount that one issue dominated above all: the winter fuel payment cuts (a policy which Miliband, an adviser to Gordon Brown when he introduced the benefit, privately warned against). Demands for its reversal are intermingled with others – a more interventionist industrial strategy and tougher controls on immigration (the government will have more to say on both of those soon). But few MPs cite net zero as a culprit for Labour's descent. That's unsurprising: polling by YouGov for Persuasion UK has found that the issue does not make the top 12 'pull factors' for Labour to Reform voters. Backing for net zero, it suggests, helps Labour retain the backing of Green-curious supporters without alienating Reform-curious ones (overall, the public back net zero by a two-to-one margin). Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe Miliband's team aim to use the next few months to further solidify this coalition of support. They believe Reform's opposition to renewable energy projects in its new fiefdoms offers a potent dividing line on growth and jobs. They are also encouraged by projections that energy bills will fall by £166 (or 9 per cent) in July and are pushing for nuclear power investment to be central to Reeves' Spending Review in June. Yet speculation that the government will discard net zero or Miliband (or both) has rarely ceased. No 10 has spent this year demolishing liberal-left taboos: reducing the foreign aid budget by 40 per cent, announcing the largest welfare cuts since George Osborne and backing a third runway at Heathrow (a policy privately resisted by Miliband). Plenty asked whether net zero would join this ensemble either before or after the elections. But provided with countless opportunities to recalibrate, Keir Starmer has instead doubled down. Renewable energy, he declared in a speech last month, is 'in the DNA of my government', noting that 'the UK's net zero sectors are growing three times faster than the economy as a whole'. When Blair appeared to argue that Miliband's net zero strategy was 'doomed to fail', some wondered whether he was outriding for No 10 (the former prime minister and Starmer speak regularly). But it was Downing Street that forced Blair to row back as it reaffirmed its support for the 2050 target (Miliband's allies describe the intervention as an 'own goal'). Downing Street refused to guarantee that Miliband would remain in post for the remainder of this parliament – the assurance it has offered Reeves and David Lammy – but it did declare that he was doing a 'fantastic job'. Is this enough? Miliband's supporters like to compare him to Michael Gove – a man who entered government with a plan and has bent Whitehall to his will (Gove has returned the compliment by naming Miliband, along with Yvette Cooper, as Labour's most effective administrator). But there was, as a government source recently reminded me, a twist to this tale. Though Gove's school reforms are now lauded – No 10's new education adviser, Oli de Botton, co-founded a free school – the Education Secretary was ruthlessly demoted to chief whip in 2014. Strategist Lynton Crosby – whose influence then was as great as Morgan McSweeney's is now – deemed Gove one of the 'barnacles' that had to be scraped off the boat as the Tories prepared for re-election. Cameron laid down his friend for his political life. Faced with a no less fervent campaign against his own friend (Miliband), will Starmer do the same? The evidence, detailed above, suggests not but the Prime Minister has shown his capacity for night-and-day changes before (recall the apparent passion with which he publicly defended Miliband's £28bn green investment pledge before discarding it). We should know the answer before the summer – and it will tell us much about this government's future direction. This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here [See also: The warning of VE Day] Related
The Guardian
06-05-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
The lesson for Labour? Until it can improve local lives and stop fearing Farage, more losses are coming
If you thought these elections were bad, just wait for the locals next May. Expect far worse for Labour, unless they act fast. As they tussle over which way to turn, left or right, stop and consider what's ahead. They will be challenged by Reform UK in towns such as Barnsley, while their progressive city heartlands will be ravaged by Greens, Liberal Democrats, and pro-Palestine and other independents. Expect shocks in London boroughs that have been forever Labour. (Worth recalling that amid Labour's landslide, Keir Starmer's vote share in Holborn and St Pancras dropped by 17% in the general election when challenged by a pro-wealth tax radical.) With council elections in a third of seats in English cities, expect an eruption of local leftward rebellions. Those around Starmer may well be misidentifying the threat that matters most. Heavy vote losses to Lib Dems and Greens in a general election would cost Labour twice as many seats as the same number of votes lost to Reform. Analysis by Persuasion UK finds 123 seats vulnerable to Reform switchers, but 250 Labour seats at risk from flight to progressive parties. While 11% of Labour voters are 'Reform-curious', 29% would consider voting Green and 41% would consider supporting the Lib Dems. The government isn't wrong to focus some attention on small boat arrivals: loose borders signify a government losing control. But chasing Reform votes is a forlorn endeavour, with anything Labour does quickly trumped by Nigel Farage. Chasing crude immigration numbers risks perverse effects: the imminent immigration white paper will reportedly clamp down on foreign students, bizarre self-harm to a successful £40bn industry that would cause critical damage to cash-starved universities. Those are not the immigration numbers that are driving Reform voters. In Runcorn, the concerns I heard were about asylum seekers lodged in a hostel there. Foreign students are not the issue, with 61% overall public support and only 27% opposed. They are only temporary migrants; most students return home or go elsewhere after their studies. Turning them away to massage 'migration' numbers will not satisfy Reform voters, and would be electoral poison in those Labour city seats – three-quarters of a million jobs rely on universities. It's a fair bet this turquoise tide will cause an abrupt backpedalling on localism and devolution. Labour will wonder why on earth they embarked on a mighty local government reorganisation, never mentioned in the manifesto, that will do them harm. Hundreds of district councils are being merged into unitaries with huge Tory/Reform-leaning populations; the result will be scores of Labour or Liberal Democrat councils, such as Reading, Brighton, Oxford, Cambridge, Exeter, Ipswich and more, obliterated. With unitaries clumped under mayors, anxious Labour number-crunchers warn not a single mayor from the Midlands to the Channel will be Labour or Lib Dem. Remember, these mayors control housing: what about Labour's 1.5m new homes? Mayors and police and crime commissioners are elected on a firstpast the post system, as gerrymandered by the last government: why hasn't Labour returned to the original supplementary vote, which would ensure every mayor must get 50% support to win, and requires voters to seek second choices beyond their own party? Why is any of this happening, largely unreported? It's a Treasury fixation with imagined efficiency, says local government expert Prof Tony Travers, 'With no evidence that unitaries save money.' Forget local democracy: the UK already has far fewer councils than France. 'This is an accidental opportunity for Reform, likely to win councils south of Scotland to Milton Keynes,' says Travers. The case for electoral reform grows daily. Maybe, Labour hopes, Reform will self-implode, scrutinised as never before: Hope Not Hate has already exposed Islam haters and Tommy Robinson worshippers within the party. Maybe mayhem will break out in their captured councils, where they face an unenviable inheritance of penurious decrepitude – English councils overall are £4.6bn in deficit. Farage promises teams of Doge-style auditors to root out woke waste, but they will find slim pickings to cover the spiralling cost of social care and special educational needs. Farage will copy the Scottish National party: as an insurgent he will take no responsibility, blaming Westminster for any council failings. He surfs his blunders blithely, as focus groups show his fans overlook facts, inhaling his aura of an angry yet cheery outsider who is on their side. Labour says 'delivery' will be their salvation. Indeed, NHS waiting lists shrinking for the past six months is starting to register. But flagship growth policies such as renewable energy and new towns will take years to show results, leaving them politically remote – and certainly unlikely to affect next year's elections. What could the Starmer government do to prove it does indeed 'get it'? MPs returning from council election battlefields say they must reverse winter fuel allowance means-testing and benefit cuts that have become the grim face of the Starmer/Reeves regime. This is possible: find funds from the wealthy. What people see on their streets shapes their view of public services: antisocial behaviour, graffiti, fly-tipping, potholes, neglected rough sleepers, gap-toothed high streets, derelict shopfronts, shuttered libraries, lost sports grounds, untended parks, unkempt public buildings. 'That can be fixed fast,' Travers says, 'costing relative pennies in the great scheme of things.' Labour in 1997 took the homeless out of street cardboard cities with instant effect. Signpost it loudly, he suggests. Get teams of offenders out of prison into community clean-up work. I would add allowing those 38,000 asylum seekers in hotels, currently denied work, to take up these jobs. Make it clear, with ringfenced funds, that Westminster is on the case locally. Labour must also calm its fear of Farage: at a time of political anger and polarisation, Reform is a party totally reliant on one 'charismatic' man, who in fact is even more unpopular with the public than the prime minister, according to YouGov, with 27% favourable against 65% unfavourable. There should be no cringing, no trimming – this is the time for outright confrontation with the dark forces of the right, reaffirming social democratic and liberal progressive optimism. Look to successes in Canada and Australia: as Donald Trump launches yet another broadside, this time a tariff against our valuable film industry, stand up to him and his acolyte Farage. After last week's election disaster, preventing a worse reprise next May needs rapid and highly visible action. Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist
New York Times
06-03-2025
- Business
- New York Times
Over a Dozen Conservative Party Donors Fund Britain's Populist Reform U.K.
Nigel Farage's insurgent Reform U.K. party has attracted more than a dozen donors from Britain's once dominant Conservative Party, new data reveals, underlining the threat the Tories face from a right-wing populist party that models itself on President Trump's MAGA movement. In total, Reform U.K. raised 4.75 million pounds ($6.1 million) last year, a third of which came from former donors to the Conservatives, and a sharp increase from the less than $200,000 that the party raised in all of 2023. The New York Times analyzed every donation that Reform U.K. reported to Britain's campaign finance watchdog in 2024, including figures for the final quarter of the year that were released on Thursday, to get the first major snapshot of who is funding the party. The biggest single donation in the last quarter came from Roger Nagioff, a former Conservative donor, former Lehman Brothers banker and Monaco-based investor, who donated £100,000 in December. Other major donations in 2024 included one million pounds from a company owned by Reform's deputy leader, Richard Tice, and £500,000 from Fiona Cottrell. The Conservative exodus began after Mr. Farage, an ideological ally of Mr. Trump, took over last year as Reform's leader just before Britain's July general election. A longtime political disrupter and former commodities trader who campaigned for Brexit, Mr. Farage has pledged to remake British conservatism, pushing the movement to the right on a nationalistic platform that he frames as anti-establishment and anti-immigration. Reform has surged in national polls, overtaking the Conservative Party, and taken its first municipal seats. Although the governing Labour Party does not have to hold a general election until 2029, Reform's fund-raising success underlines Mr. Farage's momentum and could help his party professionalize as it challenges the two main parties at local elections in May. While Mr. Farage has described support for Reform as a 'revolt against the establishment,' 34 percent of the party's new funders are former donors to the Conservatives, the centuries-old right-wing party that held power for 14 years in Britain before last year's general election. Sam Power, a political finance expert at Bristol University, said that the latest data was a stark warning to the Conservative Party, which is led by Kemi Badenoch. 'The movement of donors from the Conservative Party to Reform already I think will be causing alarm bells in Conservative Party HQ,' Mr. Power said. 'Money talks, and what you can see, if money is moving from one party to another, then that is a major sign that the sands are shifting,' he said. 'Not just in terms of elections and the public being Reform-curious, but that donors are increasingly Reform curious, too.' Other major donors bankrolling Reform in 2024 include billionaires and millionaires, individuals based in overseas jurisdictions or with offshore investments, climate change skeptics and those with investments in fossil fuels or other climate-polluting industries, The Times found. Reform, which Mr. Farage originally created in 2019 as the Brexit Party, won 14.3 percent of the vote in last year's general election. But in recent weeks, it has reached around 25 percent in several polls, at times overtaking the Conservatives and Labour. This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
