11 hours ago
Here's what we learned from John Curtice's new polling report
It comes in response to figures in a new report penned by Professor John Curtice and published by the National Centre for Social Research as part of the latest British Social Attitudes survey, released on Wednesday.
Curtice's report, titled Repairing Britain, found that almost two-thirds of the public (63%) were likely to vote to rejoin the European Union in a second referendum.
When the public are given more than a binary option, Curtice reported that 'only 21% say that the UK should be outside the EU, the lowest proportion to do so since 2008'.
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The polling expert further reported that the 'latest survey shows that as many as 69% believe that the economy is worse off as a result of Brexit, well up on the 40% who anticipated such an outcome in 2015'.
He noted that Labour were aiming to win over pro-Brexit voters who had backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 General Election, but added: 'However, Labour's support came overwhelmingly from those who say they would vote to rejoin the EU.'
Elsewhere, a majority of the UK public (61%) said they believed that the tax burden on people with low incomes was 'too high', up nine points on 2016.
Conversely, a plurality (44%) said that the tax burden on the UK's highest earners was too low, up ten points on 2016.
Only one in 10 UK adults support spending less on disability benefits (Image: PA) The report also said that, by 45% to 11%, people think the UK Government should spend more – not less – on disability benefits. However, the support for spending more is at a 'record low', down 22 points on 2017.
The Labour Government is currently facing down the biggest rebellion of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership, with more than 100 MPs opposing plans to cut disability benefit spending by £5 billion per year.
Elsewhere, the report found:
A record 26% of people say they are struggling to live on their current income, up from 16% before the pandemic.
Satisfaction with the health service has plummeted in the wake of the pandemic. A record 59% are now dissatisfied with the NHS, compared with just 25% in 2019.
In total, 40% of people now support increasing taxes and spending more on health, education, and social benefits, down from 55% in early 2023. However, this is still above the 31% support reported in 2010, when taxes were a lower proportion of GDP than currently.
58% of those who voted Labour in 2024 are in favour of increasing taxes to spend more on health, education and social benefits.
'NIMBYism' is on the rise: the proportion of people who support building more homes in their local area has fallen from 57% in 2018 to 41%. Conversely, 32% are opposed, up from 23% over the same period.
SNP MSP Clare Adamson said: "This report shows what we all already know – that Britain is broken beyond repair.
"Whether it's on EU membership, taxation, or cuts to welfare, the UK Government and the rest of the political bubble is totally out of step with voters.
"What Scotland really needs isn't a change of Government in Edinburgh or London – it's a full change of the system with independence."
Scottish Green co-leader Patrick Harvie also took aim at Labour over Brexit, saying there was 'no question' that leaving the EU had contributed to 'higher bills, poorer services, and a struggling economy'.
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'It's no surprise that an overwhelming majority across the UK now support rejoining the EU,' he went on. 'Yet despite this, Labour refuses to acknowledge the harm it's done and begin taking the urgent action we need to reverse it.
'Like on so many issues, whether it be immigration, tax or Brexit, they ignore the public and the good of the country in order to pander to a small number of right-wing newspapers and Reform voters.'
The campaign group Yes for EU said the high support for rejoining the EU was 'no surprise', with a spokesperson adding: 'What is surprising, indeed scandalous, is that the UK Labour Government continues to reject calls to rejoin.'
Scottish Green MSP Ross Greer further hit out at Labour over taxation, calling for a more progressive UK system.
'Labour claim there isn't enough money to end cruel policies like the two-child benefit cap and rape clause, yet in the recently published Rich List we saw that the top 1% increase their net worth yet again,' he said. 'Working and middle class people are struggling with the cost of living, but super-rich elites are doing better than ever.
Scottish Green MSP Ross Greer (Image: NQ) 'Keir Starmer was elected on a commitment to end at least one tax avoidance loophole enjoyed by some of these billionaires, but he dropped that as soon as he got the keys to Downing Street and instead he is slashing the support provided to disabled people to 'balance the books'.'
Curtice, a senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research, said: 'The public are well aware of Britain's problems – not least those of a failing health service and an economy in which many are struggling to make ends meet. Yet rather than turning their back on the state, for the most part, the public are still inclined to look to government to provide solutions. And while they feel that most people on low and middle incomes are already paying enough tax, they suspect that some of the better off could pay more.
'As a result, while voters have perhaps now begun to react against the marked increase in the size of the state during the last Parliament, that reaction is still, it seems, relatively muted – and especially so among those who voted Labour.
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'Yet this does not mean that voters are necessarily ready to back the various remedies that Labour have been offering to overcome the country's difficulties. They are not necessarily prepared to embrace a dash for more infrastructure building, including perhaps not least anything that appears in their own backyard.
'Tightening up on disability benefits is potentially controversial too, as the government has already discovered.
'The political difficulty with these policies is there are potentially identifiable winners and losers, and it is often the losers who shout the loudest. Pursuing economic growth rather than tax rises as the route out of fiscal constraint will not necessarily be the easier path for Labour to tread.'
