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Trump's first term coincided with a MAGA baby boom. Will his second?
Trump's first term coincided with a MAGA baby boom. Will his second?

Economist

time23-05-2025

  • Business
  • Economist

Trump's first term coincided with a MAGA baby boom. Will his second?

AS AMERICAN ELECTIONS grow ever more polarised, the line between the personal and political has blurred. Research has shown that following presidential elections, the victor's supporters become more innovative and entrepreneurial, and take more risks with their investments. A paper published in 2022 by Gordon Dahl of the University of California, San Diego and co-authors argued that Donald Trump's first presidential victory over Hillary Clinton appeared to affect even one of life's most consequential choices: whether or not to have children. From late 2016 to the end of 2018, fertility fell much less in Republican-voting areas than in Democratic-voting ones. Relative to expectations based on prior trends, the study said, this Trump bump and Clinton collapse shifted 1-2% of American births from blue counties to red ones.

Indiana is turning school boards into a farm system for wannabe politicians
Indiana is turning school boards into a farm system for wannabe politicians

Yahoo

time02-04-2025

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

Indiana is turning school boards into a farm system for wannabe politicians

Conservatives are hunting for clandestine libs hiding out on sanctuary school boards across Indiana. Their solution: partisan school board elections. The House on Monday passed Senate Bill 287, which would enable school board candidates to declare political party affiliation. The House made notable changes to the bill, which already passed in the Senate, including scrapping a requirement for primary elections (a good tweak, which could tamp down the ideological temperature). While the bill's final version has yet to be determined, Indiana appears to be on a path toward adopting partisan school board elections. In doing so, we're creating a new farm system for wannabe career politicians to train for higher offices. That's going to be good for their careers — and bad for schools. Republicans frame the need for partisan school boards in terms of transparency. They say left-leaning candidates are sneaking onto school boards despite holding views at odds with conservative communities. There is truth to that. Most school board members hold at least a bachelor's degree, far above the average educational attainment in Indiana. Given our stark education polarization, school boards filled with college graduates almost certainly are operating to the left of many conservative-leaning towns and cities. We've seen these dynamics play out through school boards' support of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives and pandemic-era restrictions in Republican-voting places. Republicans say party affiliation would clarify choices so voters could choose school board candidates who reflect their views. I would have more sympathy for this concern if Republican lawmakers weren't simultaneously working to suppress school board control over Indianapolis Public Schools, the district my son attends. When you tie together the education debates playing out in the Indiana General Assembly, you see that Republicans aren't actually concerned with tailoring public school board members to community sensibilities. They want public schools to adopt conservative-approved curriculum on history and sexual education and supply conservative-approved library books, while also accepting a decreasing status relative to charter and private schools. Republicans who support partisan school boards aren't exactly hiding those preferences. But they're not upholding their professed standard of transparency, either. School boards have leverage over curriculum and library books, but culture wars aren't their primary areas of concern. Instead, Indiana's school boards hire superintendents, make budget decisions, review employee contracts, handle disciplinary matters and oversee maintenance and construction. Boring! Partisan local elections aren't inherently detrimental to these duties. After all, Indiana's mayoral and council elections are partisan affairs, and I would hold up many municipalities as bright spots in responsive government, especially relative to the state and federal levels. School board members could continue to serve their districts well with Rs and Ds next to their names. But there is no evidence that declared party affiliation has improved school governance in other states that have adopted it. Instead, it has made school boards more attractive career opportunities for ambitious political junkies set on trolling their way to the top. Those candidates aren't likely to be satiated by routine school board business, so they'll have to create drama and controversies. Remember, before Micah Beckwith became our lieutenant governor, he served a disgraceful stint on the Hamilton East Public Library board for a year and a half. The library board was nothing more than a convenient waiting room for Beckwith to generate attention and outrage while biding his time for higher office. Expect more Beckwith-types to be attracted to partisan school board elections. Partisan school boards aren't a sky-is-falling moment for public education in Indiana. But they will lead to cases in which people with relevant subject matter expertise are replaced with unqualified political hacks who've trusted internet articles about furries in schools. As with all things touched by politics, our school boards are going to get dumber. Contact James Briggs at 317-444-4732 or Follow him on X and Bluesky at @JamesEBriggs. This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Partisan school boards will attract aspiring politicians | Opinion

Canada's anti-tariff billboards in the U.S. go viral — but is anyone swayed?
Canada's anti-tariff billboards in the U.S. go viral — but is anyone swayed?

Yahoo

time29-03-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Canada's anti-tariff billboards in the U.S. go viral — but is anyone swayed?

An unusual billboard caught Tom Smith's eye earlier this week as he was heading to work at Emory University in Atlanta. Paid for by the Canadian government, the billboard told Americans in big bold letters that "tariffs are a tax on your grocery bill." "I thought it was pretty novel," said Smith, an economics professor. "I'm literally teaching this in my class that tariffs are a tax, that tariffs will raise prices domestically." Asked if he thought the message was effective, Smith said that's up in the air. "I don't know if it will change people's minds," he said, referring to Americans who support U.S. President Trump's tariffs on Canada and other countries. "There is a current of, let's say, resistance to information that is quite pervasive." But, he added, "if one of the incentives was to get people talking about tariffs, it certainly has achieved that goal." The federal government has launched an anti-tariff billboard campaign in 12 mostly Republican-voting states and in Washington, D.C. Messages on the billboards include, "Tariffs are a tax at the gas pump" and "Tariffs are a tax on hardworking Americans." Although the jury is still out on the campaign's effectiveness, one thing's for certain — it has gone viral. Even though the signs only started popping up over the past few days, many American media outlets have already covered the story with eye-catching headlines such as "Canada targets U.S. tariffs with provocative billboards across Florida." One Reddit post about a billboard in Buckeye, Ariz., has so far garnered 13,000 upvotes from readers and more than 500 comments. Ottawa launched the campaign "to inform Americans of the economic impacts of tariffs," said Global Affairs Canada spokesperson John Babcock in an email to CBC News. The tariffs he's referring to include a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, and threatened tariffs on a broad range of other Canadian goods, including cars and car parts, set to take effect on Wednesday. The billboards are funny? The billboard campaign is up against ubiquitous messaging from Trump that imposing tariffs on goods imported from other countries will force companies to build factories in the U.S., creating more jobs and strengthening the economy. There also appears to be a glitch in the campaign. On his way to work at a nearby hospital in Columbus, Ga., Kelly Jessop says he spotted one that said "Tariffs are a tax" in English, but that the rest of the message was in French. "I just thought it was funny," he said. "Nobody in south Georgia speaks French.… So that would be completely lost on the majority of people in that area." CBC News did not immediately hear back from Global Affairs on the bilingual billboard. Chris Ervin also thought the billboard he sighted in New Port Richey, Fla., this week was funny — but for different reasons. The message was: "Tariffs are a tax on your grocery bill." "I burst out laughing," said Ervin, who staunchly supports Trump's tariffs and believes the Canadian government is wasting its money in Florida. "This is Trump territory. The majority of people here love what he's doing," he said. A Reddit post about this billboard in Buckeye, Ariz., has so far garnered 13,000 upvotes from readers and more than 500 comments. (Skin3725/Reddit) When CBC News suggested that American companies forced to pay 25 per cent tariffs on imports may pass on the cost to American shoppers, Ervin responded that he could avoid price increases by buying domestic products at the supermarket. "Look at all the brands that we can buy that's American made," he said. "I'm not going to buy the Canadian whiskeys. I'll end up buying something American made." Choose your words carefully Economist Moshe Lander says Ervin's argument highlights a flaw in the Canadian government's messaging that tariffs will lead to higher food prices. "American consumers don't buy a lot of groceries from Canada to begin with. And what groceries they do buy from Canada, they should very easily be able to find substitutes," said Lander, a senior lecturer at the University of Concordia in Montreal. WATCH | 'Very productive' call: He suggests the grocery message is ineffective because "a scare tactic only works if it's backed up by a credible threat." Moshe says the warning that tariffs are a tax at the gas pump packs more punch, because it's credible. Trump has said he will impose a 10 per cent tariff on oil and gas exports from Canada. Much of Alberta's oil is sent to U.S. refineries which are set up to process Canadian crude. Moshe says there's no easy substitution. "The only [other country] that has Alberta-type crude is Venezuela and that's on the U.S. hit list, so that's not happening." The Trump administration has recently deported hundreds of Venezuelans, claiming without evidence that they are gang members or "alien terrorists." Global Affairs did not respond to a question about the suggested messaging flaw, and did not provide a cost for the billboard campaign. Regardless of the messaging, it's still questionable if the billboards will carry much sway. "What does the Canadian government expect to get out of some kind of campaign like this?" said Ervin. "I can't imagine anybody in Florida paying attention to those things." Sign in to access your portfolio

Canada's anti-tariff billboards in the U.S. go viral — but is anyone swayed?
Canada's anti-tariff billboards in the U.S. go viral — but is anyone swayed?

CBC

time29-03-2025

  • Business
  • CBC

Canada's anti-tariff billboards in the U.S. go viral — but is anyone swayed?

An unusual billboard caught Tom Smith's eye earlier this week as he was heading to work at Emory University in Atlanta. Paid for by the Canadian government, the billboard told Americans in big bold letters that "tariffs are a tax on your grocery bill." "I thought it was pretty novel," said Smith, an economics professor. "I'm literally teaching this in my class that tariffs are a tax, that tariffs will raise prices domestically." Asked if he thought the message was effective, Smith said that's up in the air. "I don't know if it will change people's minds," he said, referring to Americans who support U.S. President Trump's tariffs on Canada and other countries. "There is a current of, let's say, resistance to information that is quite pervasive." But, he added, "if one of the incentives was to get people talking about tariffs, it certainly has achieved that goal." The federal government has launched an anti-tariff billboard campaign in 12 mostly Republican-voting states and in Washington, D.C. Messages on the billboards include, "Tariffs are a tax at the gas pump" and "Tariffs are a tax on hardworking Americans." Although the jury is still out on the campaign's effectiveness, one thing's for certain — it has gone viral. Even though the signs only started popping up over the past few days, many American media outlets have already covered the story with eye-catching headlines such as "Canada targets U.S. tariffs with provocative billboards across Florida." One Reddit post about a billboard in Buckeye, Ariz., has so far garnered 13,000 upvotes from readers and more than 500 comments. Ottawa launched the campaign "to inform Americans of the economic impacts of tariffs," said Global Affairs Canada spokesperson John Babcock in an email to CBC News. The tariffs he's referring to include a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, and threatened tariffs on a broad range of other Canadian goods, including cars and car parts, set to take effect on Wednesday. The billboards are funny? The billboard campaign is up against ubiquitous messaging from Trump that imposing tariffs on goods imported from other countries will force companies to build factories in the U.S., creating more jobs and strengthening the economy. There also appears to be a glitch in the campaign. On his way to work at a nearby hospital in Columbus, Ga., Kelly Jessop says he spotted one that said "Tariffs are a tax" in English, but that the rest of the message was in French. "I just thought it was funny," he said. "Nobody in south Georgia speaks French.… So that would be completely lost on the majority of people in that area." CBC News did not immediately hear back from Global Affairs on the bilingual billboard. Chris Ervin also thought the billboard he sighted in New Port Richey, Fla., this week was funny — but for different reasons. The message was: "Tariffs are a tax on your grocery bill." "I burst out laughing," said Ervin, who staunchly supports Trump's tariffs and believes the Canadian government is wasting its money in Florida. "This is Trump territory. The majority of people here love what he's doing," he said. When CBC News suggested that American companies forced to pay 25 per cent tariffs on imports may pass on the cost to American shoppers, Ervin responded that he could avoid price increases by buying domestic products at the supermarket. "Look at all the brands that we can buy that's American made," he said. "I'm not going to buy the Canadian whiskeys. I'll end up buying something American made." Choose your words carefully Economist Moshe Lander says Ervin's argument highlights a flaw in the Canadian government's messaging that tariffs will lead to higher food prices. "American consumers don't buy a lot of groceries from Canada to begin with. And what groceries they do buy from Canada, they should very easily be able to find substitutes," said Lander, a senior lecturer at the University of Concordia in Montreal. WATCH | 'Very productive' call: Trump and Carney hail 'very productive' first call but tariffs are still coming 6 hours ago Duration 2:35 U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney hailed their first phone call as 'very productive' and 'cordial,' but while Trump refrained from referring to Canada as the 51st state, he did warn auto tariffs will kick in next week as planned. He suggests the grocery message is ineffective because "a scare tactic only works if it's backed up by a credible threat." Moshe says the warning that tariffs are a tax at the gas pump packs more punch, because it's credible. Trump has said he will impose a 10 per cent tariff on oil and gas exports from Canada. Much of Alberta's oil is sent to U.S. refineries which are set up to process Canadian crude. Moshe says there's no easy substitution. "The only [other country] that has Alberta-type crude is Venezuela and that's on the U.S. hit list, so that's not happening." The Trump administration has recently deported hundreds of Venezuelans, claiming without evidence that they are gang members or "alien terrorists." Global Affairs did not respond to a question about the suggested messaging flaw, and did not provide a cost for the billboard campaign. Regardless of the messaging, it's still questionable if the billboards will carry much sway. "What does the Canadian government expect to get out of some kind of campaign like this?" said Ervin. "I can't imagine anybody in Florida paying attention to those things."

Ottawa launches anti-tariff ad campaign across 12 red states, plus a patriotic TV spot at home
Ottawa launches anti-tariff ad campaign across 12 red states, plus a patriotic TV spot at home

CBC

time21-03-2025

  • Business
  • CBC

Ottawa launches anti-tariff ad campaign across 12 red states, plus a patriotic TV spot at home

Social Sharing Canada is trying to win the hearts and minds of Americans with an ad campaign against U.S. tariffs targeting 12 Republican-voting states. Speaking on CNN Friday morning, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said the federal government paid for ads on digital billboards along key highways in red states — states where the majority voted for President Donald Trump — including Florida, Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Ohio. "Canadians are sending the message that there's no winners in a trade war. There will be job losses on both sides of the border, particularly in the U.S.," Joly said in an interview with CNN's Pamela Brown. The government also launched a television ad campaign at home. It is voiced in English by Rick Mercer and in French by Remi-Pierre Paquin with music by Vancouver rock duo Japandroids. The ad, which has been posted to the federal government's social media accounts, features footage from across the country as well as archival video of hockey games and key moments in Canadian history. "Canada, it's time for more us," the ad begins. "We're more than just a place on a map. We're an attitude — one with more empathy than ego." "The more we choose to stand up as our most flag-flying, maple-leaf-buying, local adventuring selves, the more we are the True North, unbreakable, strong and free," Mercer can be heard saying. CBC News did not immediately hear back to a request to know how much the government is spending on the ads. They come only days before Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to ask the Governor General to dissolve Parliament and call a federal election. The federal Conservative Party launched an attack ad against Carney on X Thursday. On CNN, Joly said Ottawa was turning to "hard-working" Americans to pressure their lawmakers to remove U.S. tariffs already in place on steel and aluminum and prevent the wide-ranging tariffs planned for April 2. This winter, following Trump's initial tariff threats citing border security and illegal fentanyl, the Canadian government pulled out all the stops to increase the RCMP and Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) presence along the border. Joly said it's clear that didn't work. "We saw that all the work we were doing in good faith was not necessarily having an impact on President Trump himself," the she said. Brown asked Joly to react to Trump's annexation threats, most recently made in an interview with Fox's Laura Ingraham this week, when the president said Canada was "meant to be the 51st state" and called it "one of the nastiest countries to deal with." "Americans and Canadians are best friends, are best neighbours, best allies. We never started this trade war," Joly responded. WATCH | Joly told Rubio 'Canada's sovereignty is not up to debate': Joly scolds Rubio over Trump's 51st state threats as G7 meeting wraps in Quebec 7 days ago Duration 2:01 A day after U.S. President Donald Trump again called for Canada to become the 51st state, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly wrapped the G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Quebec by telling U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: 'Canada's sovereignty is not up to debate, period.' Joly said "the rhetoric coming out of the White House is — how can I say — absurd," and added that Canada was beginning to turn to other allies in Europe and the United Kingdom for trade and defence. Earlier this week, Joly confirmed to CBC's Power and Politics host David Cochrane that Canada was in talks with the European Union to be part of a new defence production partnership. Canada has already retaliated with a 25 per cent tariff on nearly $60 billion worth of U.S. goods, and is threatening more counter-tariffs if Trump follows through on his plans to tax more imports on April 2. Joly said she has been in touch with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who she met at the G7 foreign ministers' meeting in La Malbaie, Que., last week.

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