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Economic Times
5 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Limited upside ahead as Nifty poised to trade in 24,200-25,500 range for next 2-3 Months: Nikhil Ranka
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "So, this is what I would say on the hits on misses. In terms of the consensus earnings for FY27, six-eight months back we were at close to 1,380 rupees if you look at the EPS estimates for FY27, that number is now down to almost 1,300, 1,310 rupees. So, close to 5% to 6% earnings downgrade is what we have seen in the last two quarters," says Nikhil Ranka So, broadly, if you look at it, the earning season has not panned out that great. On the IT side, we have seen quite a bit of negative surprises because there was uncertainty because of this tariffs and because of that as we head into Q1 a lot of decision making has got deferred and therefore, my sense is it has seen some downgrades and over the course of the year we will continue to see some downgrades in it on the back of the pharma side also this result season has been pretty subdued and the problem there is that Revlimid was a big contributor to earnings for most of the pharma companies and it goes off patent in Jan now, we do not have the visibility as to what new drugs will be able to fill that big void that will be created by Revlimid going off patent. And therefore, pharma also should have a very challenging FY26 in that sense. On the positive side, telecom could prove to be a pretty defensive sector as we head into we are seeing problems with Vodafone not going away and therefore, the top two guys should continue to see subscriber addition and three-four months down the line we should again have some sort of tariff hike coming through. So, this is what I would say on the hits on misses. In terms of the consensus earnings for FY27, six-eight months back we were at close to 1,380 rupees if you look at the EPS estimates for FY27, that number is now down to almost 1,300, 1,310 rupees. So, close to 5% to 6% earnings downgrade is what we have seen in the last two my sense is the easy money is already off the table in market. So, we have seen markets rallying from almost 21,800, 22,000 levels that we hit in Feb end to now back to close to 24,800 level. So, we have seen a 3,000-points move on Nifty. And if I give the median multiple of 20 times, then probably we are staring at a single digit upside in index over the next nine months so to say. So, my sense is we will consolidate in this broad range of probably closer to 24,200 on the downside and 25,500 on the higher need to consolidate two-three months here. We have to see how earnings pan out for Q1 and Q2 and what commentary we get from management because right now what is happening is we are continuously seeing earnings downgrade quarter after quarter and for markets to gain momentum and re-rate from that 20x levels, we at least need one quarter where we again get to double-digit earnings growth and we start to see some sort of upgrades on the the base case clearly is that we will have a market which will consolidate here for some time, next two-three months could be pretty muted for the markets from here.
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Limited upside ahead as Nifty poised to trade in 24,200-25,500 range for next 2-3 Months: Nikhil Ranka
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "So, this is what I would say on the hits on misses. In terms of the consensus earnings for FY27, six-eight months back we were at close to 1,380 rupees if you look at the EPS estimates for FY27, that number is now down to almost 1,300, 1,310 rupees. So, close to 5% to 6% earnings downgrade is what we have seen in the last two quarters," says Nikhil Ranka So, broadly, if you look at it, the earning season has not panned out that great. On the IT side, we have seen quite a bit of negative surprises because there was uncertainty because of this tariffs and because of that as we head into Q1 a lot of decision making has got deferred and therefore, my sense is it has seen some downgrades and over the course of the year we will continue to see some downgrades in it on the back of the pharma side also this result season has been pretty subdued and the problem there is that Revlimid was a big contributor to earnings for most of the pharma companies and it goes off patent in Jan now, we do not have the visibility as to what new drugs will be able to fill that big void that will be created by Revlimid going off patent. And therefore, pharma also should have a very challenging FY26 in that sense. On the positive side, telecom could prove to be a pretty defensive sector as we head into we are seeing problems with Vodafone not going away and therefore, the top two guys should continue to see subscriber addition and three-four months down the line we should again have some sort of tariff hike coming through. So, this is what I would say on the hits on misses. In terms of the consensus earnings for FY27, six-eight months back we were at close to 1,380 rupees if you look at the EPS estimates for FY27, that number is now down to almost 1,300, 1,310 rupees. So, close to 5% to 6% earnings downgrade is what we have seen in the last two my sense is the easy money is already off the table in market. So, we have seen markets rallying from almost 21,800, 22,000 levels that we hit in Feb end to now back to close to 24,800 level. So, we have seen a 3,000-points move on Nifty. And if I give the median multiple of 20 times, then probably we are staring at a single digit upside in index over the next nine months so to say. So, my sense is we will consolidate in this broad range of probably closer to 24,200 on the downside and 25,500 on the higher need to consolidate two-three months here. We have to see how earnings pan out for Q1 and Q2 and what commentary we get from management because right now what is happening is we are continuously seeing earnings downgrade quarter after quarter and for markets to gain momentum and re-rate from that 20x levels, we at least need one quarter where we again get to double-digit earnings growth and we start to see some sort of upgrades on the the base case clearly is that we will have a market which will consolidate here for some time, next two-three months could be pretty muted for the markets from here.
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Business Standard
20-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Sun Pharma Q4 preview: Analysts expect 18% jump in profit; check details
Sun Pharma Q4 results preview: Pharmaceutical major Sun Pharmaceutical Industries is expected to report decent set of numbers in the March 2025 quarter (Q4 FY25) on the back of continued expansion of speciality products like Odomzo and Ilumya in emerging markets (EM) and the rest of the world (ROW). In addition, new product launches are expected to boost the company's leadership in branded generics in India, according to analysts. Sun Pharma Q4 results 2025 date: The company is scheduled to announce its fourth quarter results on Thursday, May 22, 2025. Sun Pharma Q4 results: Profit expectations Sun Pharma Q4 results: Revenue expectations The pharma major's revenue for the quarter under review is expected to increase 13 per cent to ₹13,550 crore, on average, as compared to ₹11,982.9 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal. On a sequential basis, revenue is expected to remain flat compared to ₹13,675 crore in the December 2024 quarter. Brokerages expected the company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) to increase nearly 20.5 per cent to ₹3,726 crore in Q4FY25 compared to ₹3,091.5 crore in the year-ago period. Here's how analysts expect Sun Pharma to perform in Q4 FY25: Phillip Capital: Analysts at Phillip Capital expect Sun Pharma to report 14 per cent growth in sales on account of sustained double-digit growth in US speciality, ramp up in gRevlimid sales and sustained growth in domestic formulations. The company's margins are likely to stand at 28 per cent, led by sustained momentum in Revlimid sales, US speciality business and domestic formulation, resulting in a 25 per cent increase in Ebitda. With stable operating performance, earnings are likely to grow 22 per cent on a yearly basis but decline sequentially. Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities: The domestic brokerage firm expects Sun Pharma's Q4 revenue to increase 15 per cent Y-o-Y, on the back of continuous growth in Winlevi, Ilumya, and Cequa along with ramp up of gRevlimid. The company's India business is likely to grow 11 per cent Y-o-Y, led by gains across segments. 'ROW and EMs should expand 20 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, owing to the launch of Ilumya in China and other new products. Ebitda margin is expected to remain strong at 27.2 per cent,' the brokerage said. HDFC Securities: Analysts at HDFC Securities expect the pharma major's US generic business to grow sequentially, led by gRevlimid sales and steady Taro sales. Speciality sales are also expected to grow 10 per cent Y-o-Y. Steady gross margin and costs will lead to Ebitda margin expansion.
Forbes
18-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
5 Dirt-Cheap Dividends Paying Up To 7.6%
Is it time to buy the dip on these cheap dividends—which by the way yield between 5.3% and 7.6%? Yes, the market-at-large has bounced quite a bit. But these payers remain mired in the bargain bin. Vanilla investors who only focus on the S&P 500 have serious FOMO. They worry that they missed the pullback. The best buying opportunity, at least in terms of the plain 'SPY' ETF owned by most of America, lasted only a week or two: SPY Total Returns Ycharts But there are still cheap dividend payers that haven't rallied alongside the popular names. At least not yet. Let's discuss five that yield 5.3% or more and are cheap with respect to the following two metrics: Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) is one of the more recognizable names in pharmaceuticals: a $90 billion blue chip responsible for blockbusters such as Revlimid and Opdivo (cancer) and Eliquis (anticoagulant). It trades at a screamingly low PEG of 0.12, and at just 7 times cash-flow estimates. It's also punching above its already competitive weight class with a sturdy yield of 5%-plus. BMY is cheap for a reason, though. The stock has basically treaded water over the past five years, though it certainly hasn't done so in a straight line. It's currently mired in a double-digit decline; yes, health care is generally weak this year, but Squibb is pulling up the rear. Bristol-Myers Squibb has been mired in profitability concerns for years, sparked by competition eating away at several of its core drugs. A couple for-instances? Revlimid, once BMY's top drug by sales and still responsible for high-single-digit revenues saw the top line hemorrhage by 44% during the first quarter. Abraxane sales were cut in half; Sprycel revenues dropped by a few points more than that. And generics are expected to further cut into its business over the next few years. Yes, the Street is looking for a big snapback in profits for 2025, but that's in large part because 2024 was dreadful. 2025 guidance, if hit, would be a 9% decline (at the midpoint) from its 2023 earnings. BMY's dividend is well funded, but its stock price outlook is a bit sketchy at the moment. HF Sinclair (DINO) is the product of a 2022 mash-up of HollyFrontier Corp., Holly Energy Partners, and Sinclair Oil. (The ticker name came from the latter's iconic dinosaur logo.) The company operates seven refineries in the U.S., as well as production facilities in Canada and the Netherlands. It boasts crude oil processing capacity of 678,000 barrels per day, lubricant production capacity of 34,000 barrels per day, and renewable diesel capacity of 380 million gallons per year. In addition to the HollyFrontier Specialty Products and Sinclair brands, it's also responsible for Petro-Canada Lubricants, Sonneborn and Red Giant Oil. DINO shares are fairly cheap on both a P/CF (7.3) and PEG (0.2) basis. We can thank a drop of more than 30% over the past year, even accounting for the stock's rebound of the past month or so. There's nothing novel about HF Sinclair's troubles—they largely reflect weakness across the refining industry, which is the company's largest segment. Trade policy uncertainty, tariffs, accelerating OPEC+ output, and expected weak global demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are all conspiring against refiners—conversely, any relief on any of those fronts should boost their fortunes. Indeed, DINO has outpaced the energy sector and the market higher out of the April lows, up about 40% on a relief trade as the U.S. appears to be lifting its foot off the tariff pedal. Margin anxiety nonetheless prompted HF Sinclair to pause what had been a budding streak of annual dividend hikes since a little before the corporate merger. As it stands, DINO's 50-cent quarterly dividend implies it will pay $2 per share this year, but analysts only expect the company to earn $1.58 per share. The pain might be short-lived enough to survive, though, with dividend coverage expected to swell to 180% thanks to a big earnings jump in 2026. Virginia-based utility AES Corp. (AES) distributes power to some 2.7 million customers through its regulated utility businesses. But this isn't just an ordinary local utility—it also boasts a renewables business that sells energy to corporate customers and data centers, with operations in 11 states coast to coast, as well as in South America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. As a result, it deals in a wide variety of energy, including coal, gas, hydro, wind, solar, and biomass. AES shares' low valuation—including a PEG of 0.8 and a forward P/CF of just 5—can largely be chalked up to an erosion in shares, with the stock losing more than half its value since the start of 2023. It has been hyper-aggressive in transitioning to renewables, but financially, that move hasn't yet paid off, and investors have been further scared off by project delays and high debt. The renewables business also means AES doesn't act like a typical utility. While the yield is quite high for a utility, stability isn't, with the stock trading less defensively and more in line with more cyclical plays. There is good news here, however. AES has been attempting to cure some of its ails with large asset sales, cost cuts, and pushing back coal retirements, and that could give AES the footing it needs to start building a more consistent growth profile. Also, the dividend looks mighty secure with plenty of room for continued payout upside, with expected earnings a little more than 3x what AES needs to fund the distribution. Polaris (PII) is pure entertainment—literally. It manufactures ATVs, 4-wheelers, quad bikes, dune buggies, pontoon boats, deck boats, and snowmobiles, plus it's the name behind Indian Motorcycles and Slingshot open-air roadsters. However, PII's stock action over the past year-plus hasn't been entertaining at all, with the stock down more than 70% from its July 2023 peak, which explains how Polaris's dividend yield has gone from good to great. The company has spent that time dealing with soft demand spurred by high prices on vehicles and high interest rates, forcing the company to cut back on production. In 2024, revenues dropped by about 20%, while profits cratered by nearly 80%. The hits have kept on coming in 2025, as tariff uncertainty has withered demand further and forced Polaris to pull its 2025 guidance. Analysts still have their estimates, though, and they're not great. The Street is expecting a $1.71 per share loss before rebounding to an 8-cent loss in 2026. So, is PII cheap? Well, its PEG is below 0 … but at negative 1.6, that's nothing to celebrate. The fact that Polaris has almost 30 years of uninterrupted dividend growth might indicate that it has the financial wherewithal to withstand this weakness. It might—but projections for two years' worth of negative earnings puts the dividend in at least short-term danger. Even if PII wanted to float it with cash, that'd be a tall ask. It pays roughly $150 million a year in dividends, and it has all of $292 million in cash and investments with $1.6 billion in long-term debt, more than $400 million of which comes due within the next year. Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) is an energy equipment and services company that provides transportation and logistics, storage solutions, and contract labor services to oil and natural gas E&P firms, as well as oilfield services companies, in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico. Most notably, it provides mesh frac sand—a 'proppant' that props open the fractures created in the hydraulic fracturing process. AESI has only been trading since its March 2023 IPO, and it started paying dividends just a couple months after that. And it has been aggressively upping its distributions to shareholders, albeit in an awkward way, as I explained a few months ago. AESI Total Returns Ycharts I also said then that: Well, we did get a 4% hike in February, but the company sat still in May, keeping its payout at 25 cents per share. That likely has to do with a downturn in oil prices, which has flattened demand for Permian frac sand and prompted some of Atlas's customers to defer development products. As a result, the company has delivered two consecutive earnings duds and AESI shares have taken a 40% shellacking. That in turn has dropped AESI to a PEG of 0.2 and a forward P/CF of just 5.5. For what it's worth, Atlas has very low-cost assets capable of generating significant cash flows, so the dividend isn't necessarily in near-term danger—at least not yet. But as it goes in the equipment and services space, AESI needs oil prices to cooperate. Brett Owens is Chief Investment Strategist for Contrarian Outlook. For more great income ideas, get your free copy his latest special report: How to Live off Huge Monthly Dividends (up to 8.7%) — Practically Forever. Disclosure: none
Time of India
14-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Dr Reddy's Laboratories: JM Financial maintains Buy on Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, lowers target price to Rs 1418
ADVERTISEMENT JM Financial has maintained Buy call on Dr. Reddy's Laboratories with a revised target price of Rs 1,418 (Earlier Rs 1,723). The current market price of Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. is Rs 1234.95 Time period given by analyst is year when Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, the price can reach defined target. Dr. Reddy's, incorporated in 1984, is a Large Cap company with a market cap of Rs 103430.74 crore, operating in Pharmaceuticals Reddy's key products/revenue segments include Pharmaceuticals, Licence Fees, Spent Chemicals, Scrap, Service Income and Other Operating Revenue for the year ending the quarter ended 31-03-2025, the company has reported a Consolidated Total Income of Rs 9050.50 crore, up 6.08% from last quarter Total Income of Rs 8531.40 crore and up 23.79% from last year same quarter Total Income of Rs 7311.30 crore. The company has reported net profit after tax of Rs 1581.20 crore in the latest company's top management includes Mr.K Satish Reddy, Wan, Dr.K P Krishnan, M Kumar, Mehta, Sharma, Puri, Morparia, Albrecht, Mr.G V Prasad, Seth. Company has S R Batliboi & Associates LLP as its auditors. As on 31-03-2025, the company has a total of 83 crore shares Financial expects the FY26 topline to grow at 23% with EBITDA margins to remain at similar levels as FY25. They have revised the FY26E topline upwards by 8% on account of expected Revlimid sales being greater than those earlier anticipated. Beyond FY26, Semaglutide and Biosimilars (including Abatacept) are expected to drive business performance. DRRD plans to be present in all Semaglutide markets losing exclusivity in CY26, while Abatacept is scheduled for launch in CY27. The brokerage believes the Street is underestimating the Semaglutide opportunity for Dr. Reddy's. While it may not fully replace Revlimid sales, it could substantially mitigate the earnings decline in FY27. Though Canada, Brazil, India and China are the key Sema markets losing protection in CY26, a number of Emerging Market countries too are going off patent and thus JM Financial has increased its FY27E sales by 5% leading to a 6% increase in FY27E EBITDA. Further, the Indian Pharma companies are entering lower earning growth phase post FY26, thus we have reduced the 1 year forward P/E multiple by 19% to 21x. At an 21x PE Dr Reddys Laboratories on FY27 EPS, the stock remains attractive compared to peers. The brokerage maintains a BUY rating with a target price of Rs 1, held 26.64 per cent stake in the company as of 31-Mar-2025, while FIIs owned 25.75 per cent, DIIs 25.45 per cent.
