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4 days ago
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Demand for US light sweet crude drops as OPEC+ ramps up output
By Stephanie Kelly and Robert Harvey NEW YORK (Reuters) -Rising OPEC+ supplies and new streams of oil coming online globally are increasing options for European and Asian refiners and weighing on export demand for light sweet U.S. crude, contributing to lower prices in the country's main oil-producing regions. The U.S., the world's largest crude producer, is facing increasing competition as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies pump more oil in a bid to regain market share and punish members that over-produce. Since April, OPEC+ countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia have made or announced increases totaling 1.37 million barrels per day, or 62% of the 2.2 million bpd they aim to add back to the market. The additional supplies come at a time of broad uncertainty for global oil producers as they assess how volatile trade policies are impacting the world's economic outlook and prepare for a longer-term future in which greener fuels could displace their barrels. For the U.S., lower demand for a significant portion of its crude will likely add to a complicated outlook for producers already digesting on-again, off-again tariffs from President Donald Trump's administration. Companies are considering cutting output and jobs even as Trump urges higher domestic production. U.S. exports fell to an average of 3.8 million bpd in May from an average of 4 million bpd in April, according to an analysis of weekly Energy Information Administration data. Prices have declined for crudes such as WTI-Midland, a key sweet grade from the U.S. shale region. Since early March, its price is off by 45% to a 60-cent premium to U.S. crude futures. Light Louisiana Sweet from the U.S. Gulf Coast has fallen by about 30% to a $2.70 per barrel premium over the same period. "That's a part of OPEC accelerating. Light sweets are weak, broadly speaking," said Jeremy Irwin, global crude lead at Energy Aspects, adding that demand is expected to fall further as European refiners favor medium crudes in the summer months. The U.S. sent 1.4 million bpd of light, sweet crude to Europe in May, versus 1.6 million bpd in April, data from Kpler showed. In May 2024, the U.S. exported 1.7 million bpd of light, sweet crude, which is lighter in density and lower in sulfur content, to Europe. While light crudes are typically easier for refineries to process, many global refineries have invested in upgrading capacity to run heavy-sour grades, which are usually cheaper and still yield sufficient quantities of higher-value fuels. As Asian refiners come out of turnaround season - when plants reduce output for maintenance purposes - and European refiners ramp up fuel production going into summer, demand for medium-sour grades has increased. GLOBAL SUPPLY MEETS UNCERTAIN DEMAND Increased OPEC+ exports will primarily flow into Asia. Lower prices for Murban crude produced in the United Arab Emirates have made it unprofitable to export WTI to Asia, said Richard Price, an oil markets analyst at Energy Aspects. OPEC+ is increasing output more quickly than expected this year to punish allies such as Kazakhstan, which has produced well above its OPEC+ target. "The rise in Kazakh crude production means greater availability of CPC blend crude, which is increasingly competing with WTI into Europe," said Matt Smith, a lead oil analyst at Kpler. CPC Blend is light density crude, similar to WTI-Midland. Additionally, Guyana and Brazil's exports into Europe could increase from the 400,000 bpd they each already send, if European refiners can absorb it, Smith said. Other sweet grades including barrels from Libya and Algeria, and Norway's new Johan Castberg stream, are giving European refiners more choice, Vortexa analyst Rohit Rathod said. Global petroleum consumption is expected to grow by 970,000 bpd in 2025 and 900,000 bpd in 2026, the EIA said, while global crude production is expected to grow by 840,000 bpd in 2025 and 680,000 bpd in 2026. But demand growth currently is mainly fueled by oil products that are best refined from heavier barrels, said Janiv Shah, vice president of commodity markets at Rystad Energy. "As such, we expect increased throughput of available medium sour barrels and some discounting of light sweet grades."
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5 days ago
- Business
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Trafigura posts slight rise in first-half net profit, lower revenues
By Robert Harvey LONDON (Reuters) - Global commodity trading house Trafigura reported on Thursday that its net profit rose slightly on the year to about $1.52 billion in the first half of its 2025 financial year, while its revenues fell on lower average commodity prices. The unlisted company's net profit was up 3% from the first half of 2024, stabilising after a sharp drop in its 2024 full-year results, when the company discovered a $1.1 billion fraud in Mongolia and as major trading houses adjusted to an end to a record earnings period over 2022-2023. The first half of its 2025 financial year, the six months to March 31, also coincided with a power transition at the Swiss-based trading house, with Richard Holtum taking over from Jeremy Weir as group CEO on January 1. It also comes as commodity players grapple with global markets thrown into turmoil this year by heightened trade and geopolitical tensions. "Increased volatility may not necessarily translate into physical trading opportunities, as current market movements are driven more by policy-focused decisions rather than traditional supply-demand disruptions, Trafigura Chief Financial Officer Stephan Jansma said, adding that he anticipated turbulence would continue in the second half of the year. Group revenues for the period fell by 4% to $119.2 billion, because of lower commodity prices on average, the firm said in its results statement. Trafigura, alongside rival traders including Vitol and Gunvor, reaped lower profits in 2024 as their boom period in 2022-2023, driven by the post-pandemic recovery and commodity price shocks in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, came to an end. Trafigura's full-year net profit for 2024 was $2.8 billion, down from a record $7.4 billion in 2023. OIL AND GAS VOLUMES UP, METALS DOWN Trafigura's first-half traded oil and gas volumes were unchanged on the year at around 7.2 million barrels per day. Traded volumes of metals fell. Trafigura traded 9.9 million metric tons of non-ferrous metals, down from 10.4 million a year earlier, as it said it was focusing more on "profitable tonnages." Bulk minerals volumes fell to 43.4 million tons, from 54.7 million in the first half of 2024. Trafigura will pay dividends totalling $1.537 billion for the period, which it said were mostly in relation to share redemptions. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
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Analysis-Global oil refiners see short-term boost from higher margins
By Robert Harvey, Shariq Khan and Nicole Jao LONDON (Reuters) -Refiners across the globe are reaping unexpected profits from producing key fuels in recent weeks, offering an ailing sector respite before an anticipated weakening later this year, as plant closures have tightened fuel supply needed to meet peak summer demand. The strength in fuel markets contrasts with crude oil prices falling to a four-year low in May, after OPEC+ unwound output cuts faster than planned. It also suggests demand has so far proved resilient despite ongoing concerns about the impact of tariffs. "Margins are strong because the balance of products - supply and demand - is still tight," said Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby. Refining margins reflect the profits a plant makes from processing crude oil into fuels such as gasoline or diesel. Just a few months ago, oil majors were warning 2025 would be a bleak year for refining. TotalEnergies and BP reported lower first-quarter profits because of weaker earnings from fuels. Refiners have broadly struggled with waning demand from economic slowdowns, an increasing uptake of electric vehicles, and competition from newer plants in Asia and Africa. Global composite refining margins reached $8.37 per barrel in May 2025, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie, their highest since March 2024, but still much lower than the $33.50 average in June 2022 during the post-pandemic demand recovery and in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Closures in the United States and Europe have slowed global net refinery capacity growth below demand growth, helping to make operational refineries relatively more profitable. Global diesel supply could decline by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year in 2025, while demand will drop 40,000 bpd, according to energy consultancy FGE. Gasoline supply will decline by 180,000 bpd, with demand rising by 28,000 bpd. "We are therefore seeing a tighter product market for key transport fuels which is exerting upwards pressure on margins, much to the relief and joy of regional refiners," said FGE's head of refined products Eugene Lindell. Refiners of all fuel-producing configurations are benefitting from current margins, FGE's head of refining Qilin Tam added, as light fuels such as gasoline and heavy products like fuel oil have recently increased. In Europe, closures include Petroineos' Grangemouth refinery in Scotland and Shell's Wesseling facility this year, as well as a part closure of BP's Gelsenkirchen refinery. In the U.S., LyondellBasell's Houston refinery was shuttered this year, while Phillips 66's Los Angeles refinery and Valero's Benicia refinery are set to close in October 2025 in April 2026 respectively. Unplanned refinery shutdowns have also compounded the impact of closures. A power outage across the Iberian peninsula on April 28 took around 1.5 million bpd of refinery capacity offline, JPMorgan noted, with 400,000 bpd of that still shut in two weeks later. Two of the world's major new refinery projects, Nigeria's giant Dangote refinery, and Mexico's Olmeca refinery, both had unplanned outages on gasoline-producing units in April. TIGHTER BALANCES Fuel inventories at key hubs have declined this year, creating extra demand for refinery production heading into the peak summer season. Stocks in the OECD region, which includes the U.S., EU and Singapore, fell by 50 million barrels over January-May, according to JPMorgan analysts. "This significant reduction in product stocks has underscored the resilience in product prices," the analysts said. Global fuel demand in the northern hemisphere is highest in summer as motoring and air travel increase. In the Middle East, heavy fuel oil demand peaks in summer to meet cooling demand when temperatures soar. "Strength in the northern hemisphere summer demand growth is where we see some support to margins," said Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah. U.S. refining executives have been upbeat on demand, while noting relatively low stocks. "Our current gasoline supply outlook is for those inventories to continue to tighten," Phillips 66 executive vice president Brian Mandell said on the firm's first-quarter earnings call. Marathon Petroleum's domestic and export businesses were seeing steady demand for gasoline, and growth for diesel and jet compared to 2024, CEO Maryann Mannen said on its earnings call. However, analysts have warned that the current strength may soon fade as demand is hit by trade wars, and as fuel production rises as plants look to profit from higher margins. "We have the view that there is a bit of a short-term bump," Wood Mackenzie analyst Austin Lin said. Global oil demand growth is set to average 650,000 bpd for the remainder of 2025, falling from just short of 1 million bpd in the first quarter as trade uncertainty weighs on the global economy, according to the International Energy Agency. "Refiners should be hedging everything now, as I think this is as good as it gets for them," a veteran oil trader, who asked not to be named, added. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Business
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Oil jumps 3% after OPEC+ keeps output increase unchanged
By Robert Harvey LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices jumped by about 3% on Monday after producer group OPEC+ kept output increases in July at the same level as the previous two months. Brent crude futures climbed by $1.74, or 2.77%, to $64.52 a barrel by 0827 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.94, or 3.19%, at $62.73. Both contracts lost more than 1% last week. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, decided on Saturday to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, the third consecutive monthly increase of that amount, as it looks to wrestle back market share and punish members that have produced more than their quotas. Sources familiar with OPEC+ talks said on Friday that the group could discuss an even larger increase. Oil traders said the 411,000 bpd increase had already been priced in to Brent and WTI futures. "Had they gone through with a surprise larger amount, then Monday's price open would have been pretty ugly indeed," Onyx Capital Group analyst Harry Tchilinguirian wrote on LinkedIn. Kazakhstan has informed OPEC that it does not intend to reduce oil production, Russia's Interfax news agency reported on Thursday, citing Kazakhstan's deputy energy minister. "Given the circumstances of a loss in market share and the almost too honest admission from Kazakhstan that it would not cut output, there does seem little choice," PVM analyst John Evans said of the OPEC+ decision. Goldman Sachs analysts expect OPEC+ to implement a final 410,000 bpd production increase in August. "Relatively tight spot oil fundamentals, beats in hard global activity data and seasonal summer support to oil demand suggest that the expected demand slowdown is unlikely to be sharp enough to stop raising production when deciding on August production levels on July 6," the bank said in a note. Meanwhile, low U.S. fuel inventories have stoked supply jitters ahead of what is expected to be a more active than usual hurricane season, analysts said. "More encouraging was a huge spike in gasoline implied demand going into what's considered the start of the U.S. driving season," ANZ analysts said in a note, adding that the gain of nearly 1 million bpd was the third-highest weekly increase in the past three years. Sign in to access your portfolio
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16-04-2025
- Business
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Exclusive-Top Turkish refiner Tupras resumes buying Russian Urals crude, sources say
By Ahmad Ghaddar and Robert Harvey LONDON (Reuters) - Turkey's largest oil refiner Tupras has returned to buying Russian Urals crude cargoes, after it stopped doing so earlier this year due to US sanctions on Moscow, according to three trading sources and shipping data. Tupras did not immediately reply to a Reuters request for comment. The three sources said Tupras resumed its purchases after prices for Urals crude fell below a Western price cap, to the lowest levels since 2023, earlier this month. Tupras became one of the biggest importers of Russian crude after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Russian oil representing 65% of the country's total oil imports in January-November 2024, according to data from Turkey's energy regulator. Sign in to access your portfolio
