Latest news with #RobertRubin
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Financial Stocks Have Topped the Charts for the Past Year
June 9, 2025 (Maple Hill Syndicate) - The best performing sector in the stock market for the past year has been the unsung financial sector. Its 24% return through May 31 was nearly double the return on the market as a whole. Unlike technology or biotech, financial stocks don't get people very excited. There's no tantalizing hint of instant riches from investing in banks, insurance companies, credit-card companies and the like. Where's the glamor? Yet many financial stocks, in their unobtrusive way, have been excellent investments over the years. In the past decade, Mastercard Inc. (NYSE:MA) has returned 577%, Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) 481%, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) 419%, American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP) 341%, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) 257%. For comparison, the Standard & Poor's 500 Total Return index has returned 243%, including dividends. Here are five financial stocks that I think are promising investments now. Goldman Sachs It's no coincidence that three U.S Secretaries of the Treasury Robert Rubin, Henry Paulson and Steven Mnuchin were Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) alumni. Goldman in my opinion is the most prestigious investment banking firm in the country, though Morgan Stanley would dispute that. In the past ten years, Goldman has grown its revenue by an average of 9% a year, and its profits by an average of 14%. Analysts are divided on the stock, with 13 recommending it and 10 giving it a tepid hold. I notice, however, that some analysts for whom I have considerable respect are in the buy camp. That includes Kian Abouhossein of J.P. Morgan and Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo. J.P Morgan I've done business with J.P. Morgan (NYSE:JPM) for about 17 years (it is the custodial broker for my hedge fund), so I may not be completely objective. But I find the value compelling here. The company posted a strong return on equity, 17%, in the past four quarters. Yet the stock is fairly cheap, at 13 times earnings. In addition to running a large brokerage and investment banking operation, the company owns Chase Bank, one of the largest commercial banks in the U.S. Jamie Dimon, the CEO since 2006, plans to retire within several years, but in the meantime, I view him as a big plus. In the past 30 years, J.P. Morgan has been profitable every year, even in the Great Recession of 2008. The U.S. government has turned to it to take over troubled firms such as Bear Stearns in 2008 and First Republic Bank in 2023. Progressive Boasting a sparkling 34% return on equity in the past year, Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) is an auto and home insurer based in Mayfield Village, Ohio. You may know it from its quirky TV commercials, featuring wry humor and a woman named Flo. In auto-insurance market share, Progressive has been gaining on rival State Farm and has moved well ahead of Allstate. In home insurance, Progressive has also gained market share, but I worry that it has heavy exposure to hurricane-plagued Florida. The company stopped issuing new home insurance policies in Florida in 2022, and has said that it won't renew certain existing policies there. The stock is up 935% over the past decade. East West Based in Pasadena, California East West Bancorp. (NASDAQ:EWBC) does some business in China and serves the Chinese-American population in many U.S. cities. Despite a terrible relationship between the U.S. and China, East West's stock has climbed 33% in the past year. If that relationship ever thaws out, I would expect East West to benefit. Meanwhile, East West has posted a respectable return on equity in the past year, above 15%. The stock seems modestly priced to me at about 11 times earnings. The bank's executive team, led by Dominic Ng as chief executive officer, is well aware of the touchy state of U.S.-China relations. The word China does not appear once in the bank's 2024 annual report. Main Street Main Street Capital Corp. (NYSE:MAIN), from Houston, Texas, invests in, and lends to, medium-sized and small private businesses. Its web site lists more than 100 companies with which it has done business. The firm has been profitable 19 years in a row, and has been publicly traded since 2007. Analysts disdain it (five hold ratings and only one buy), partly because they believe it may have to cut its dividend. It so, the cut will come from a rich starting point. The dividend yield right now is 7.2%. Disclosure: I own J.P. Morgan shares personally and for most of my clients. I own Goldman Sachs and Progressive for some clients. My wife, who is a portfolio manager at my firm, owns Progressive personally and for clients. John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC in Boston, Massachusetts. He or his clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@ This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Zawya
16-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
US 'strong dollar' policy rings increasingly hollow: McGeever
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) ORLANDO, Florida - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday repeated the mantra we've heard from his nine predecessors: "We have a strong dollar policy." While the words are familiar, the conviction behind them may have softened. It was former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin who, 30 years ago in early 1995, declared that "a strong dollar is in our national interest," articulating what has become one of the fundamental tenets of the modern global financial system. The 'strong dollar' policy has always been about more than just the exchange rate, although a more expensive currency can help keep inflation and interest rates low. This policy has represented the world's trust in the U.S., and, consequently, the greenback's role as the lynchpin of the global economy. But times have changed since 1995. A lot. The world today is losing faith in the dollar, losing trust in the government institutions backing it, and losing confidence in America's role as leader of the 'free world'. Back then, the North American Free Trade Agreement was in its infancy, China was about to emerge as an economic force, globalization was accelerating, trade and regulatory barriers were being torn down, and global capital flows were exploding. The dollar was pivotal to all that and it soared for the next seven years, right up until the dotcom crash. The dollar slumped around 40% in the following seven years to the Global Financial Crisis and then drifted for several more years after its post-Lehman surge. But this didn't stop central banks from growing their dollar FX reserves to $4.5 trillion in 2015 from around $1 trillion in 2001. That was a strong dollar, the world's reserve currency in its prime. PRESSURE AT THE LONG END The dollar has remained dominant by any measure. Central banks' dollar holdings have largely flat-lined for the past decade, but private sector buyers have increased their exposure significantly. The greenback is still the most dominant currency in FX reserves, global trade and financial market trading. But as Steven B. Kamin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Mark Sobel, U.S. chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, have written, future dollar dominance rests on three factors: "preserving the underpinnings of the dollar's global role; maintaining trust in the U.S. as a reliable partner; and avoiding overuse or abuse of financial sanctions." Doubt now hangs over all three as the Trump administration's 'America First' agenda has caused foreign investors to look at the dollar in a new light. Last November, before his confirmation as Chair of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran published a paper, 'A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System', in which he argued that the dollar, from a trade perspective, is "persistently over-valued in large part because dollar assets function as the world's reserve currency." Perhaps more importantly, he also noted that while Trump supports the dollar's reserve status, he had floated "substantial changes" to dollar policy. "Sweeping tariffs and a shift away from strong dollar policy can have some of the broadest ramifications of any policies in decades, fundamentally reshaping the global trade and financial systems." This will be achieved by a range of policies aimed at getting the rest of the world to share more of the "cost" America bears for providing the reserve currency, Miran argues, rather than replacing the dollar. Tariffs are clearly Trump's policy of choice. The dollar will fluctuate in value and its dominance as the world's sole reserve currency may continue to slowly diminish. The Treasury Secretary will probably always pay lip service to the "strong dollar" policy - they have a duty, after all, to help keep borrowing costs low. "It can be wheeled out in times of need and when the Treasury Secretary worries about the long end of the curve," says Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered. Bessent's reaffirmation this week of Washington's 30-year-old stance, therefore, was perhaps no surprise. But it probably fell on deaf ears. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
Reuters
15-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
US 'strong dollar' policy rings increasingly hollow: McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday repeated the mantra we've heard from his nine predecessors: "We have a strong dollar policy." While the words are familiar, the conviction behind them may have softened. It was former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin who, 30 years ago in early 1995, declared that "a strong dollar is in our national interest," articulating what has become one of the fundamental tenets of the modern global financial system. The 'strong dollar' policy has always been about more than just the exchange rate, although a more expensive currency can help keep inflation and interest rates low. This policy has represented the world's trust in the U.S., and, consequently, the greenback's role as the lynchpin of the global economy. But times have changed since 1995. A lot. The world today is losing faith in the dollar, losing trust in the government institutions backing it, and losing confidence in America's role as leader of the 'free world'. Back then, the North American Free Trade Agreement was in its infancy, China was about to emerge as an economic force, globalization was accelerating, trade and regulatory barriers were being torn down, and global capital flows were exploding. The dollar was pivotal to all that and it soared for the next seven years, right up until the dotcom crash. The dollar slumped around 40% in the following seven years to the Global Financial Crisis and then drifted for several more years after its post-Lehman surge. But this didn't stop central banks from growing their dollar FX reserves to $4.5 trillion in 2015 from around $1 trillion in 2001. That was a strong dollar, the world's reserve currency in its prime. PRESSURE AT THE LONG END The dollar has remained dominant by any measure. Central banks' dollar holdings have largely flat-lined for the past decade, but private sector buyers have increased their exposure significantly. The greenback is still the most dominant currency in FX reserves, global trade and financial market trading. But as Steven B. Kamin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Mark Sobel, U.S. chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, have written, future dollar dominance rests on three factors: "preserving the underpinnings of the dollar's global role; maintaining trust in the U.S. as a reliable partner; and avoiding overuse or abuse of financial sanctions." Doubt now hangs over all three as the Trump administration's 'America First' agenda has caused foreign investors to look at the dollar in a new light. Last November, before his confirmation as Chair of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran published a paper, 'A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System', in which he argued that the dollar, from a trade perspective, is "persistently over-valued in large part because dollar assets function as the world's reserve currency." Perhaps more importantly, he also noted that while Trump supports the dollar's reserve status, he had floated "substantial changes" to dollar policy. "Sweeping tariffs and a shift away from strong dollar policy can have some of the broadest ramifications of any policies in decades, fundamentally reshaping the global trade and financial systems." This will be achieved by a range of policies aimed at getting the rest of the world to share more of the "cost" America bears for providing the reserve currency, Miran argues, rather than replacing the dollar. Tariffs are clearly Trump's policy of choice. The dollar will fluctuate in value and its dominance as the world's sole reserve currency may continue to slowly diminish. The Treasury Secretary will probably always pay lip service to the "strong dollar" policy - they have a duty, after all, to help keep borrowing costs low. "It can be wheeled out in times of need and when the Treasury Secretary worries about the long end of the curve," says Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered. Bessent's reaffirmation this week of Washington's 30-year-old stance, therefore, was perhaps no surprise. But it probably fell on deaf ears. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Bloomberg
05-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
DOGE Isn't How to Cut the Deficit, Says a Man Who Did It
'I don't think these people have the foggiest notion of what they're doing,' ex-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin says. The annual Bloomberg Invest conference wraps up today, and Sonali Basak is here with some highlights. Plus: How Elon Musk's government work is affecting Tesla, and Greenlanders prepare to vote with Donald Trump's threats in mind. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up. You may remember after President Donald Trump's victory in November the way the markets rallied. Since then, it's been a walk down a stairway into another reality—the S&P 500 has lost its gains, and investors are recalibrating in reaction to the moves made in Washington in Trump's first 44 days.
Bloomberg
04-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Robert Rubin Blames Trump for Most Uncertainty in 60-Year Career
Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said President Donald Trump's economic policies have stoked the 'greatest uncertainty' in his six-decade career, warning that they will undermine confidence, worsen the US fiscal trajectory and endanger US credibility on the global stage. 'A lot of what is going on is adversely affecting confidence — it is now, and I think even more so in the future,' Rubin said in an interview from the Bloomberg Invest conference in New York Tuesday, referring to confidence in the rule-of-law. He said the Trump administration appears to be targeting its opponents in its application of law, and is outright violating commitments made in treaties with trading partners.
