Latest news with #RolfBuerkl
Time of India
27-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
German consumer morale inches up but US trade policy weighs
German consumer morale inches up but US trade policy weighs (Photo: AP) German consumer sentiment inched up heading into June, a key survey showed Tuesday, but erratic US trade policy and a glum domestic economic outlook kept the gauge at low levels. The forward-looking indicator, published by pollsters GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), came in at minus 19.9 points, a rise of 0.9 from the previous month. It was the third-straight increase for the regular survey of about 2,000 people, which has been boosted by a new German government vowing to kickstart Europe's top economy following two years of recession. However, the small rise for June indicated that "uncertainty among consumers is still high," NIM consumer expert Rolf Buerkl said. "The erratic tariff and trade policies of the US government, turbulence on the markets and fears of a third year of stagnation in a row are keeping consumer confidence weak." US President Donald Trump has threatened and imposed a range of tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, with duties announced in early April causing stock markets to slide worldwide before many of them were paused or softened. Trump Friday sent European markets into a tailspin after threatening a 50-percent duty on European Union exports before announcing a pause Monday. The survey showed consumers having markedly rosier expectations for their incomes and for the economy as a whole, but that was not enough to lead to a big rise in confidence overall. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Free P2,000 GCash eGift UnionBank Credit Card Apply Now Undo "People apparently prefer to save, given the overall economic situation," Buerkl said. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has won parliamentary approval for a fiscal "bazooka" aimed at unleashing vast new spending on infrastructure and defence, which is expected to boost growth. But the effects of Trump's tariffs are set to be felt sooner, and to hit export-dependent Germany hard. The government in April downgraded its growth forecast for 2025 to zero.
Reuters
27-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
German consumer sentiment gets boost for June but households still thrifty, GfK finds
BERLIN, May 27 (Reuters) - German consumer sentiment is set to improve again slightly heading into June but households' hesitancy to spend remains an obstacle to any stronger recovery in Europe's biggest economy, a survey indicated on Tuesday. The consumer sentiment index, published by GfK market research institute and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), rose by 0.9 points month on month to -19.9 points, just below an average forecast of -19.8 from analysts polled by Reuters. The rise was driven by improved income prospects in May, which factors into the survey's assessment of consumer climate for the coming month. However, a declining willingness to buy and an increased willingness to save had a dampening effect. It was the overall indicator's third monthly increase, but the rate of recovery slowed heading into June. "The level of consumer sentiment remains extremely low, and consumer uncertainty remains high," said Rolf Buerkl, NIM's head of consumer climate, pointing to tariff and stock market turbulence and the prospect of a historic third year without growth in Germany. "In view of the general economic situation, people seem to think it advisable to save," Buerkl added. Germany's new government has promised to drastically ramp up investment and stimulate the economy after two years of contraction. But an unpredictable tariff row with the United States threatens Germany's export-driven economy and prompted the government to scrap its growth forecast for 2026. NOTE - The survey period was from May 1-12, 2025. An indicator reading above zero signals year-on-year growth in private consumption. A value below zero indicates a drop compared with the same period a year earlier. According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a year-on-year change of 0.1% in private consumption. The "willingness to buy" indicator represents the balance between positive and negative responses to the question: "Do you think now is a good time to buy major items?" The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about the development of household finances in the coming 12 months. The additional business cycle expectations index reflects respondents' assessment of the general economic situation over the next 12 months.
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
German consumer sentiment improves in May but still weighed by uncertainty, GfK survey shows
BERLIN (Reuters) -German consumer sentiment improved further heading into May as the prospect of a new government appeared to soothe households, countering some of the uncertainty unleashed by tensions over import tariffs for now, a survey indicated on Friday. The consumer sentiment index, published by the GfK market research institute and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), remained firmly in negative territory at -20.6 points, up from a slightly revised -24.3 points the month before. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected sentiment to rise to -26.0 points. Both income expectations and the willingness to buy showed noticeable increases, while economic expectations improved only slightly, according to the survey. "The realignment of the U.S. administration's trade policy, which began with the announcement of sharp tariff increases shortly before the start of the survey in early April, has apparently not yet had lasting impacts on consumer sentiment in Germany," said Rolf Buerkl at the NIM. "It is clearly more important to German consumers at present that a government will be formed quickly," he added. Conservative chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz is expected to be sworn in on May 6 to lead a coalition government tasked with hauling the beleaguered German economy out of a protracted recession even as the tariff conflict deals a fresh blow to its export-driven industry. MAY 2025 APR 2025 MAY 2024 Consumer climate -20.6 -24.3 -24.0 Consumer climate components APR 2025 MAR 2025 APR 2024 - willingness to buy -4.9 -8.2 -12.6 - income expectations 4.3 -3.1 10.7 - willingness to save 8.4 13.8 14.9 - economic expectations 7.2 6.9 0.7 NOTE - The survey period was from April 3 to 14. The consumer climate indicator forecasts the progress of real private consumption in the following month. An indicator reading above zero signals year-on-year growth in private consumption. A value below zero indicates a drop compared with the same period a year earlier. According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a year-on-year change of 0.1% in private consumption. The "willingness to buy" indicator represents the balance between positive and negative responses to the question: "Do you think now is a good time to buy major items?" The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about the development of household finances in the coming 12 months. The additional business cycle expectations index reflects respondents' assessment of the general economic situation over the next 12 months. Sign in to access your portfolio
Reuters
29-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
German consumer sentiment improves in May but still weighed by uncertainty, GfK survey shows
BERLIN, April 29 (Reuters) - German consumer sentiment improved further heading into May as the prospect of a new government appeared to soothe households, countering some of the uncertainty unleashed by tensions over import tariffs for now, a survey indicated on Friday. The consumer sentiment index, published by the GfK market research institute and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), remained firmly in negative territory at -20.6 points, up from a slightly revised -24.3 points the month before. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected sentiment to rise to -26.0 points. Both income expectations and the willingness to buy showed noticeable increases, while economic expectations improved only slightly, according to the survey. "The realignment of the U.S. administration's trade policy, which began with the announcement of sharp tariff increases shortly before the start of the survey in early April, has apparently not yet had lasting impacts on consumer sentiment in Germany," said Rolf Buerkl at the NIM. "It is clearly more important to German consumers at present that a government will be formed quickly," he added. Conservative chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz is expected to be sworn in on May 6 to lead a coalition government tasked with hauling the beleaguered German economy out of a protracted recession even as the tariff conflict deals a fresh blow to its export-driven industry. MAY 2025 APR 2025 MAY 2024 Consumer climate -20.6 -24.3 -24.0 Consumer climate components APR 2025 MAR 2025 APR 2024 - willingness to buy -4.9 -8.2 -12.6 - income expectations 4.3 -3.1 10.7 - willingness to save 8.4 13.8 14.9 - economic expectations 7.2 6.9 0.7 NOTE - The survey period was from April 3 to 14. The consumer climate indicator forecasts the progress of real private consumption in the following month. An indicator reading above zero signals year-on-year growth in private consumption. A value below zero indicates a drop compared with the same period a year earlier. According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a year-on-year change of 0.1% in private consumption. The "willingness to buy" indicator represents the balance between positive and negative responses to the question: "Do you think now is a good time to buy major items?" The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about the development of household finances in the coming 12 months. The additional business cycle expectations index reflects respondents' assessment of the general economic situation over the next 12 months.
Reuters
28-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
German consumer sentiment almost flat in April, GfK survey shows
BERLIN, March 28 (Reuters) - German consumer sentiment is broadly unchanged heading into April, with a focus on saving highlighting uncertainty among households after last month's election in Europe's biggest economy, a survey indicated on Friday. The consumer sentiment index, published by the GfK market research institute and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), inched up to -24.5 points from a slightly revised -24.6 points the month before. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected sentiment to rise to -22.7 points. While economic and income expectations and the willingness to buy improve, a higher willingness to save is hindering a more significant recovery, according to the survey. "The elections and prospect of a new government have lessened pessimism among a number of consumers. However, the renewed rise in the willingness to save is clouding the overall picture," said Rolf Buerkl at the NIM. He said the attitude to saving was an expression of consumer uncertainty and that a new government was needed to end that. "A fast formation of a government and the early adoption of a budget for this year would be an important factor for more planning security - not only for companies, but also for private households," Buerkl said. Friedrich Merz's conservatives are in coalition talks with the Social Democrats with the aim of getting a government in place by or soon after Easter, at the end of April, although the two are still at odds over several issues, including immigration. Parliament last week passed plans for an overhaul of Germany's tight fiscal rules and its biggest ever spending package to revive a flagging economy and boost military spending. However, any turnaround is likely to take time after the economy shrank for a second straight year in 2024. It has lagged other European economies over the last two years. Consumers' income prospects improved in March after two straight declines but Buerkl said it was unclear whether this marked an end the downward trend since mid-2024. Households' willingness to buy also increased but remains at a low level and is worse than during the pandemic lockdowns, the survey showed. APR 2025 MAR 2025 APR 2024 Consumer climate -24.5 -24.6 -27.3 Consumer climate components MAR 2025 FEB 2025 MAR 2024 - willingness to buy -8.2 -11.1 -15.3 - income expectations -3.1 -5.4 -1.5 - willingness to save 13.8 9.4 12.4 - economic expectations 6.9 1.2 -3.1 NOTE - The survey period was from February 27 to March 10, 2025. The consumer climate indicator forecasts the progress of real private consumption in the following month. An indicator reading above zero signals year-on-year growth in private consumption. A value below zero indicates a drop compared with the same period a year earlier. According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a year-on-year change of 0.1% in private consumption. The "willingness to buy" indicator represents the balance between positive and negative responses to the question: "Do you think now is a good time to buy major items?" The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about the development of household finances in the coming 12 months. The additional business cycle expectations index reflects respondents' assessment of the general economic situation over the next 12 months.
