Latest news with #RoryJohnston
CNA
26-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
Oil holds steady; market awaits clarity on OPEC+ next move
CALGARY :Oil prices held steady on Monday with news that eight OPEC+ countries, who had pledged extra voluntary oil output cuts, will now meet on May 31, a day earlier than previously planned. Brent crude futures settled down four cents at $64.74 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude last traded at $61.53 a barrel, unchanged from the prior day's session. Trading volumes were light due to the U.S. Memorial Day holiday. Three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Monday about the change of meeting date. The meeting will likely decide on July output, which sources have previously told Reuters will entail another 411,000 barrels per day of production increase. The meeting is separate from the online ministerial meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia, set for May 28. Russian Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday that OPEC+ has not yet discussed hiking output by another 411,000 barrels per day ahead of its meeting, RIA news agency reported. "At this stage, it feels like the market is exhausted with this," said Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based analyst and founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, adding investors and traders are still anticipating the arrival of additional OPEC barrels but are disinclined to react significantly until something material emerges. OPEC oil output edged lower in April despite a scheduled output hike taking effect, Johnston pointed out, which added to the overall market hesitancy. "It feels like (OPEC) really wants to have headlines every couple of days," Johnston said. "But the market reaction to them at this point is waiting for anything (tangible) to actually show up." Both Brent and WTI had traded higher earlier in Monday's session after U.S. President Donald Trump said he agreed to extend a deadline for trade talks with the European Union until July 9, marking another temporary trade policy reprieve. The extension eased concerns that U.S. tariffs on the EU could hit fuel demand. Global markets climbed on Monday and the euro rallied. "Trump's pivot, by postponing higher tariffs for the EU, and his comments on possible sanctions on Russia are moderately supporting crude prices today," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Trump separately said in a social media post that Russian President Vladimir Putin had "gone absolutely CRAZY" by unleashing the largest aerial attack of the war on Ukraine and that he was weighing new sanctions on Moscow.
Reuters
08-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Keystone oil pipeline shut after spill in North Dakota
Summary Companies Canadian crude oil discount to US oil widened after shutdown South Bow stock tumbled to lowest since October Amount of spill is not known yet, pipeline to be shut until at least Wednesday NEW YORK/HOUSTON, April 8 (Reuters) - The Keystone oil pipeline from Canada to the United States was shut on Tuesday after an oil spill near Fort Ransom, North Dakota, its operator South Bow ( opens new tab and the state's Department of Environmental Quality said. The 4,327-km (2,689-mile) Keystone pipeline is a major conduit for the supply of crude oil from Alberta to U.S. refineries in Illinois, Oklahoma and along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Some U.S. refiners, especially in the Midwest, rely heavily on the type of oil produced in Canada and delivered by Keystone. The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. South Bow shut down the pipeline after its leak detection systems detected a pressure drop, a spokesperson said. The amount of oil that leaked from Keystone is unknown, said Bill Suess, a program manager at the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality. He said he expects the pipeline to be shut until at least Wednesday. South Bow did not provide an estimate of the size of the spill or a timeline for the restart. The company's shares were last down nearly 4% to C$31.99, after hitting their lowest since October at C$30.99 earlier in the session. RBC analysts noted that Keystone's physical integrity is one of the biggest risks for South Bow investors. Oil market participants were bracing for supply disruptions from the shutdown, two crude oil traders told Reuters, requesting anonymity as they are not authorized to speak to the media. The price of Western Canadian Select crude oil fell to a wider discount against U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude. WCS for May delivery traded $11.25 below WTI on Tuesday, compared to a $9.20 discount on Monday, a broker said. At least five prior spills have been reported on Keystone since its start-up in 2010, which took one to three weeks to resolve, said Rory Johnston, energy analyst and founder of the Commodity Context newsletter. The most recent major spill was in December 2022, when around 14,000 barrels leaked in rural Kansas due to an issue that originated during construction of the pipeline. It was the biggest U.S. oil spill since 2013, and shut a portion of the pipeline for 21 days.
CBC
28-02-2025
- Business
- CBC
Pipelines seem more popular amid Trump's threats. But does it make sense to build new ones?
When the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion opened on May 1, 2024, carrying oil from Alberta to the B.C coast, there was no grand opening ceremony. The federal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which had bought the project and spent over $34 billion — making the pipeline one of the largest infrastructure projects ever built in Canada — said almost nothing about it. "This was a thing that the Liberal government did right for the oil sector … and they didn't celebrate it at all. There was no ribbon cutting ceremony," said Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, an oil market research service. Even Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a major Trudeau antagonist, thanked the federal Liberals for finishing the pipeline, saying that it would be a "game-changer" for Alberta's oil industry and hailing it as an example of federal-provincial cooperation. But the Liberals were heavily criticized for the pipeline from climate advocates, who saw it as the government betraying its emissions reduction goals and giving the oil and gas industry — Canada's largest emitter of planet-warming greenhouse gases — a massive boost. That all seemed like a distant memory at the Liberal Party's leadership debates this week. In both the French and English language debates, leadership frontrunner candidates expressed warmer sentiments towards pipelines. "A project like Energy East is possible. It's a fact it's possible to build a pipeline to Quebec, to the Maritimes from Alberta.… I think it's an opportunity for us that we should seize," said former central banker Mark Carney in the French debate on Monday. "I am very proud to be the minister that got access for our energy to the Pacific. That diversification is so valuable today. It gives us an alternative to the United States. We need that more than ever," said former finance minister Chrystia Freeland at the English debate on Tuesday. All this comes as Canada faces U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to make Canada the 51st state and to slap tariffs on Canadian exports — which could bring down Canada's export-dependent economy — have led to newfound interest in shoring up Canada's economic and energy independence, pipelines included. But even if the political climate becomes more favourable to new pipeline projects, they still face the ongoing transition away from fossil fuels to clean energy. That means building new pipelines might make sense for Canada's energy security and politicians looking for leverage as they face down Trump, but it may not be very appealing for private companies trying to make a profit. What do Canadians think of new pipelines? An online Angus Reid survey of 2,012 Canadians taken in late January suggests an uptick in pipeline support. Energy East, the west-to-east pipeline proposal that was cancelled in 2017, has seen its support increase from 58 to 65 per cent since 2019, the poll suggests. Support for the pipeline has reached 47 per cent even in Quebec, where there was a mass movement against the project when it was proposed over environmental concerns. A little over half of Canadians seem to also support Northern Gateway, a proposed pipeline that would bring Alberta oil to the B.C. coast but was cancelled by the Trudeau government in 2016. In B.C, the poll found 55 per cent of those surveyed support Northern Gateway, which was originally opposed by many Indigenous and environmental groups for potential spills along its route through the province, and in the waters off of Northern B.C. "People are kind of casting around right now for alternatives. You know, how do we decouple our economy from the U.S?" said Hayden Mertins-Kirkwood, senior researcher at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. He said this turn back toward pipelines shows a lack of political imagination, and Canada should use the moment to boost other industries — like clean electricity or manufacturing with a more certain future in a world turning away from fossil fuels. "There's this huge risk of stranded assets here that we're continuing to double down on, infrastructure that we aren't going to need in the next few decades," he said. "Instead of building new infrastructure that's going to last us for 100 years." Matto Mildenberg, a political science professor at the University of California Santa Barbara, who studies climate change policy and politics in North America, said that while the political tensions with the U.S. had opened up space to talk about pipelines, he still expected any future Liberal government to stay focused on the energy transition, something that's been the party's key priority for nearly a decade. "I don't view any of the messaging that we're hearing from the Freeland and Carney campaigns as indicating as a de-prioritization of climate as an issue," he said. What lessons have been learned from Trans Mountain? The Trans Mountain project and its eye-watering cost overruns loom over any future Canadian pipeline proposals. Texas-based Kinder Morgan first proposed expanding the pipeline in 2012. The pipeline carries oil from Alberta to ports and refineries on the West Coast, and the company wanted to more than double its capacity and bring in opportunities for Alberta oil companies to export to markets in Asia and elsewhere. But the project faced significant protests and legal challenges from environmental groups, First Nations along the route and the B.C. government itself. In 2018, Kinder Morgan suspended the project and said it may have to abandon it completely because of all the opposition. The Trudeau government then stepped in to finish it, buying the pipeline for $4.5 billion and spending billions more to build the expansion. "Even if it was grievously over budget, and even if the pipeline itself never actually breaks even as a standalone project, the benefit of the Crown being the one to build it is that the federal government can take a far broader economic picture for whether or not it's worthwhile," Johnston said. He said that means the government can take into account the long-term benefits for Alberta, for oil industry workers, and now for having a way to export oil without being completely reliant on the U.S — even if the pipeline itself doesn't succeed as a business based on how expensive it was to build. As part of the process to set tolls for companies using the pipeline, the federal energy regulator is going to review why the project ended up costing so much. "I think if we're serious about this kind of nation building project, we need to understand what went wrong with Trans Mountain," Johnston said, pointing out some of the cost was likely having to drill through mountains, or bad luck, like flooding. Other pipelines may not necessarily have such expensive obstacles, he said. WATCH | Life along the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline: Pipeline road trip: How Trans Mountain's expansion is changing lives 10 months ago Duration 25:58 After more than a decade of delays and division, oil is now flowing through Canada's expanded $34-billion Trans Mountain pipeline. Reporter Erin Collins and a CBC News team travelled the entire route to uncover how the pipeline is changing lives in the communities it runs through. What about the clean energy transition? Since 2021, the International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized countries on energy markets and projections, has been clear: to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, which are already more frequent and severe, the world needs to work toward net-zero emissions by 2050. That, the IEA says, means no new long-term oil and gas projects should be built. Last June, it forecast that global oil demand will peak by 2029 as power generation moves to renewable sources and electric cars become more popular. "If the world is successful in bringing down fossil demand quickly enough to reach net zero emissions by 2050, new projects would face major commercial risks," the agency warns, because the world would have moved on to renewable energy and there wouldn't be enough demand for fossil fuels. "I think that Canadians are going to have to grapple with the probably declining role of fossil fuels in the global economy as the energy transition proceeds. And that's going to mean that the Canadian economy can't be rooted in fossil fuel extraction for very much longer," Mildenberg said. "I think that a better approach to thinking about the disruption that the current American administration is creating is to think about other ways in which Canada can become energy independent in a way that also meets the needs of the climate."
Emirates 24/7
26-02-2025
- Business
- Emirates 24/7
Oil Prices Edge Higher as U.S. Stockpile Drop Offsets Supply Concerns
Oil prices climbed in early Asian trading hours on Wednesday, rebounding from two-month lows in the prior session after an industry report showed a decline in U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent crude oil futures rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.29 a barrel by 0134 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures gained 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $69.18 per barrel. Market sources cited data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicating that U.S. crude stocks fell by 640,000 barrels in the week ended February 21. Official stockpile data from the U.S. government is expected later on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had projected a 2.6-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories. The decline in stockpiles helped ease concerns over rising global oil supply, which, coupled with weak economic data from the U.S. and Germany, had pushed oil prices more than 2% lower on Tuesday. Brent crude settled at its lowest level since December 23, while WTI recorded its weakest close since December 10. U.S. economic data showed consumer confidence in February deteriorated at its sharpest pace in three and a half years, with inflation expectations rising over the next 12 months. In Germany, the economy contracted in the final quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter. Oil markets remain wary of the impact of U.S. trade policies, particularly President Donald Trump's decisions on tariffs against China and other trading partners, which could add pressure to the American economy. Despite fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran that could reduce the country's crude exports by up to 1 million barrels per day, OPEC+ members are preparing to increase supply in the coming months, according to Commodity Context analyst Rory Johnston. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Ukraine have agreed on terms for a draft minerals deal central to Trump's efforts to expedite the end of the war in Ukraine, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. A resolution to the conflict could potentially pave the way for increased Russian oil exports to the market. Follow Emirates 24|7 on Google News.
Zawya
26-02-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Oil edges up after US stockpiles report helps offset worries on rising supply
Oil prices climbed in early Asian trading hours on Wednesday, bouncing off two-month lows hit in the prior session, after an industry group reported U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week. Brent crude oil futures rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.29 a barrel by 0134 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were up 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $69.18 per barrel. U.S. crude stocks fell 640,000 barrels in the week ended February 21, market sources said on Tuesday citing American Petroleum Institute data. Official U.S. stockpiles data is due later on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters estimated a 2.6-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude stocks last week. The report helped offset some concerns on rising oil supply around the globe. That, and dour economic reports by the U.S. and Germany, pulled oil prices more than 2% lower on Tuesday. Brent crude closed at its lowest since December 23 on Tuesday, while WTI recorded its lowest settlement since December 10. U.S. data showed consumer confidence in February deteriorated at its sharpest pace in 3-1/2 years, with 12-month inflation expectations surging. Meanwhile, the German economy shrank in the last three months of 2024 compared to the prior quarter. Oil prices have also been buffeted by concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump's decisions about tariffs against China, and other trading partners, could add to pressure on the country's economy. That has eased worries on tighter near-term oil supply despite fresh U.S. sanctions against Iran, ANZ Bank analysts wrote in a note to clients. Even though U.S. policy measures could drive an up to 1 million barrel-per-day reduction in Iranian crude exports, any loss in supply from the Middle Eastern nation is countered by OPEC+ members hoping to bring more supply to the market in the months ahead, Commodity Context analyst Rory Johnston said. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Ukraine also agreed terms of a draft minerals deal central to Trump's efforts to rapidly end the war in Ukraine, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday. An end to the war in Ukraine could pave the way for additional Russian oil supply to hit the market. (Reporting by Shariq Khan in New York; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)
