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Inflation risks mount despite macro stability
Inflation risks mount despite macro stability

Express Tribune

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Express Tribune

Inflation risks mount despite macro stability

Listen to article The latest monthly economic outlook report has raised concerns about a potential increase in inflation ahead of the upcoming budget. Inflation for the current month is expected to remain between 1.5% and 2%, with a possible rise to 3-4% next month. In April, the annual inflation rate stood at a low 0.3%. The report highlights continued growth in exports and remittances, along with a gradual recovery in large-scale manufacturing. Production of vehicles and imports of raw materials have increased, although large-scale manufacturing recorded a 1.47% decline between July and March. Favourable weather conditions and additional water supply are expected to boost agricultural output, which should contribute positively to overall economic growth. Remittances grew by 30.9% over ten months, reaching $31.21 billion, while exports increased by 6.8%, totalling $27.27 billion between July and April. The current account remained in surplus at $188 million. Imports rose by 11.8% to $48.61 billion. However, foreign direct investment dropped by 2.8% to $178 million. Tax revenue increased by 26.3% to Rs930 billion, and non-tax revenue surged by 69.9% to Rs409.9 billion. Meanwhile, the State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) foreign exchange reserves rose to $11.4 billion. Overall, the report signals cautious optimism for economic growth amid inflationary pressures. The SBP's foreign exchange reserves increased by $70 million during the week ended May 23, 2025, reaching $11.516 billion, according to data released on Thursday, according to the SBP's latest data. The country's total liquid foreign reserves stood at $16.637 billion. Of this, $5.121 billion was held by commercial banks, while the SBP accounted for the remaining $11.516 billion. Rupee records slight gain Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee regained slightly against the US dollar, gaining 0.04% in the interbank market on Thursday. By the end of trading, the rupee closed at 282.07, improving by Rs0.10 against the dollar. The interbank market remained closed on Wednesday due to the Yaum-e-Takbeer holiday. On Tuesday, the rupee had ended at 282.17. The US dollar strengthened sharply on Thursday after a court struck down former President Donald Trump's proposed Liberation Day import tariffs, posting strong gains against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc. Gold remains steady Moreover, gold prices in Pakistan remained steady on Thursday, mirroring the international market where prices edged higher amid volatile trading, supported by weaker US jobs data and a court decision blocking key tariffs imposed during former President Donald Trump's term. Locally, the price of gold per tola held firm at Rs349,300, while the rate for 10 grams also remained unchanged at Rs299,468, as reported by the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA). On Wednesday, the per tola price had climbed by Rs1,400 to reach Rs349,300. Commenting on market trends, Adnan Agar, Director at Interactive Commodities, said the market hit a low of $3,250 and a high of $3,320 before settling at $3,300. He noted that the market did rebound from its low, but a close above the $3,330-$3,340 range is crucial to maintain stability. If it falls below the $3,270-$3,260 mark, prices could slide further to $3,220 or even $3,200, he warned. Globally, gold prices rose in volatile trading on Thursday, aided by softer jobs data, while market participants also digested a court ruling that blocked most of US President Donald Trump's tariffs, according to Reuters. Spot gold reversed course to rise 0.9% to $3,319.22 an ounce, as of 1337 GMT, after hitting its lowest since May 20 earlier in the session.

Gold rises Rs1,400 as global market recovers
Gold rises Rs1,400 as global market recovers

Express Tribune

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Express Tribune

Gold rises Rs1,400 as global market recovers

Listen to article Gold prices in Pakistan rose on Wednesday, tracking gains in the international market as investors sought bargains following a dip in the previous session. The local uptick comes amid global anticipation surrounding the release of minutes from the US Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting. According to the All Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA), the price of gold per tola climbed by Rs1,400 to reach Rs349,300. Similarly, the price of 10 grams of gold increased by Rs1,200, settling at Rs299,468. This rebound followed a sharp drop on Tuesday when gold fell by Rs3,600 per tola to close at Rs347,900. Commenting on the trend, Adnan Agar, Director at Interactive Commodities, noted that international gold prices remained volatile but within a defined trading range. "The market touched a high of $3,325 and a low of $3,290 today, currently trading around $3,300," he said. "The $3,270 level is proving to be a strong support, from where the market has bounced back. On the upside, $3,350 is a key resistance." He explained that gold has been trading in a range-bound pattern, citing historical movements from $3,120 to $3,600. "Profit-taking is likely when prices approach upper resistance levels. On the downside, unresolved tariff issues and geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to weigh on sentiment." Agar added that unless these global hurdles are permanently resolved, gold is expected to remain within the $3,270 to $3,360 range. "A breakout beyond either end could push prices towards $3,200 or $3,420-3,500, respectively," he concluded. Globally, gold prices rose on Wednesday as traders sought bargains following the previous session's declines, while the market remains focused on minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting due later in the day, according to Reuters. Spot gold gained 0.4% to $3,312.05 an ounce by 1255 GMT, after hitting a session low of $3,285.19 on Tuesday. US gold futures rose 0.3% to $3,310.60. "The gold market has been kind of choppy recently, just reacting to fresh daily fundamental news events with no real trending price action. In the near term, the market top is in place," Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst at Kitco Metals, said. "The minutes can be market movers. Market watchers are going to be looking at new comments on inflation this afternoon." Minutes of the Fed's May policy meeting are due at 1800 GMT. The meeting took place amid heightened concern over global trade tensions, following President Trump's early April announcement of major new import tariffs. Some of the most aggressive tariffs were eased or delayed a week later. Gold, which performs well in a low-interest rate environment and serves as a safe haven during times of uncertainty, has gained 26% so far this year and hit a record high in April.

Gold prices surge in Pakistan after two-day slump
Gold prices surge in Pakistan after two-day slump

Express Tribune

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Express Tribune

Gold prices surge in Pakistan after two-day slump

Listen to article After two consecutive days of decline, gold prices in Pakistan recorded an upward trend on Wednesday, tracking gains in international markets. According to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA), the price of gold per tola rose by Rs1,400, reaching Rs349,300 in the local market. Similarly, the price of 10 grams of gold increased by Rs1,200, settling at Rs299,468. On Tuesday, gold prices had dropped sharply, with the per tola rate falling by Rs3,600 to Rs347,900, reflecting pressure from both local and global trends at the time. Silver prices also saw an uptick on Wednesday. The per tola rate of silver increased by Rs32, reaching Rs3,480. Market analysts suggest that fluctuations in precious metals are closely tied to global economic signals and investor sentiment, with current gains fueled by renewed demand and international market strength.

Gold price per tola surge Rs1,400 in Pakistan
Gold price per tola surge Rs1,400 in Pakistan

Business Recorder

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Business Recorder

Gold price per tola surge Rs1,400 in Pakistan

Gold prices in Pakistan increased on Wednesday in line with their incline in the international market. In the local market, gold price per tola reached Rs349,300 after a surge of Rs1,400 during the day. Similarly, 10-gram gold was sold at Rs299,468 after it gained Rs1,200, according to the rates shared by the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA). On Tuesday, gold price per tola slashed to Rs347,900 after it losing Rs3,600 during the day. The international rate of gold also improved on Wednessday. The rate was at $3,309 per ounce (with a premium of $20), an increase of $14, as per APGJSA. Meanwhile, silver price per tola increased by Rs32 to settle at Rs3,480.

Gold jumps Rs6,600 on global rally
Gold jumps Rs6,600 on global rally

Express Tribune

time22-05-2025

  • Business
  • Express Tribune

Gold jumps Rs6,600 on global rally

Globally, gold prices rose for a third straight session, helped by a softer dollar and safe-haven demand amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty. photo: Reuters Listen to article Gold prices in Pakistan surged on Wednesday in tandem with gains in the international market, where bullion extended its upward streak for a third consecutive session, reaching a one-week high. The global rally was driven by a softer US dollar and renewed safe-haven demand amid prevailing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. According to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA), the price of gold per tola in the domestic market rose sharply by Rs6,600, settling at Rs349,400. Similarly, the rate for 10 grams increased by Rs5,659 to Rs299,554. A day earlier, gold prices had edged up by Rs300 per tola, reaching Rs342,800. Adnan Agar, Director at Interactive Commodities, noted that while gold is currently trading around $3,310 in the international market, it faces significant resistance near the $3,350 level. "There is potential for further upside if this resistance is breached, possibly pushing prices toward $3,380 and $3,420," he said. "However, if the market fails to break this level, a pullback toward $3,280 or even $3,270 is likely." He added that trading remains relatively subdued, with gradual movement and limited momentum compared to previous sessions. Market activity may also be affected by the upcoming US bank holiday on Monday, which could influence global trading volumes and price direction in the short term. Globally, gold prices rose for a third straight session on Wednesday and hit a one-week high, helped by a softer dollar and safe-haven demand amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $3,312.51 an ounce, as of 1553 GMT. US gold futures climbed 0.9% to $3,315.60. The US dollar fell 0.6% against a range of other currencies, making gold less expensive to buy for overseas currency holders. Wall Street's main indexes slipped and government bond yields rose, as investors closely watched a pivotal debate over US President Donald Trump's tax-cut bill that has fanned concerns about the country's growing debt. The Pakistani rupee weakened slightly against the US dollar in the interbank market on Wednesday, posting a minor depreciation of 0.02%. By the day's end, the local currency closed at 281.97, slipping by five paisas compared to the previous day's close of 281.92. Ismail Iqbal Securities wrote that on a cumulative basis, the local currency has depreciated by 1.21% since the beginning of the calendar year (CYTD) and by 1.29% since the start of the fiscal year (FYTD).

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