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Reviving the Russia-India-China grouping: Why it may not serve India's interests

The state of India's relationship with China is not yet such that it should let itself be drawn into a closer embrace of its northern neighbour read more Speaking at a conference on security and cooperation in Eurasia in the city of Perm in the Ural mountains on May 29, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reaffirmed Russia's interest in reviving the Russia-India-China Troika (RIC). Lavrov said: 'I would like to confirm our genuine interest in the earliest resumption of the work within the format of the troika – Russia, India, China – which was established many years ago on the initiative of (ex-Russian prime minister) Yevgeny Primakov and which has organised meetings more than 20 times at the ministerial level since then, not only at the level of foreign policy chiefs but also the heads of other economic, trade and financial agencies of the three countries.' He also said, 'Now that, as I understand, an understanding has been reached between India and China on how to calm the situation on the border, it seems to me that the time has come to revive this RIC troika.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD While Lavrov has called for the revival of RIC, this may be easier said than done. Given the ongoing disputes and geopolitical dynamics, India may be unwilling to fully embrace such a close trilateral alliance with China. Contrary to what Lavrov said, border tensions between India and China continue to persist. While diplomatic efforts and troop disengagements have occurred, a full resolution remains elusive, and the potential for further clashes persists. The situation at the India-China border continues to be tense despite recent disengagement agreements. Increased infrastructure development and troop deployments along the border by China in recent years have exacerbated tensions. As General Upendra Dwivedi, the Indian Army Chief, said earlier this year, India will not reduce the number of its troops deployed along the Line of Actual Control with China anytime soon, asserting there is still 'a degree of standoff' persisting between the rival armies and the two countries need to rebuild trust to de-escalate overall tensions. Gen Dwivedi's statement makes it quite clear that there is a lack of trust for China. The 2020 Galwan Valley clashes and ongoing border disputes have continued to strain the relationship between India and China. This lack of trust will hinder the prospects of reviving the RIC. The India-China territorial dispute stems from differing interpretations of the border, with China disputing India's claims over regions like Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. China has issued maps showing Aksai Chin — an area of India's state of Kashmir mostly controlled by China since the 1962 war— and the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh within Chinese territory. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD As recently as May 14 this year — less than three weeks ago — China has reasserted its territorial claims in Arunachal Pradesh. Despite professed claims about efforts to improve diplomatic ties with India, the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs published its latest names for places in Arunachal Pradesh, which China calls Zangnan and says is part of the Tibetan autonomous region. The renaming of 27 places covered an array of geographical features: 15 mountains, five residential areas, four mountain passes, two rivers and one lake. India rejected the new Chinese names for places in Arunachal Pradesh as a 'preposterous' attempt to alter the 'undeniable' reality that the state 'was, is, and will' always be an integral part of India. It is, in fact, an old Chinese habit to periodically issue lists of new names for locations in Arunachal Pradesh. India describes the names as 'inventions' by China and has consistently and unequivocally dismissed them. China's renaming of places in Arunachal Pradesh is a strategic move to assert unilateral claims, which India firmly rejects, emphasising Arunachal's integral status. Strengthening infrastructure, military deterrence, and global alliances is crucial for India to counter China's tactics and safeguard sovereignty. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD There are important geopolitical considerations which also need to be taken into account. India feels that the China-Pakistan axis, characterised by strong military and economic ties, poses a strategic challenge for India. This axis is working against Indian interests, particularly due to China's support for Pakistan in regional disputes. China is a major supplier of military equipment and technology to Pakistan, further strengthening their relationship but escalating mistrust with India. China has emerged as Pakistan's largest arms supplier, accounting for almost 81 per cent of Islamabad's weapon systems inventory. Among the weapons supplied by China to Pakistan are fighter jets, missiles, drones, radar systems, warships and submarines. Following the Pahalgam terror attack, China moved swiftly to arm Pakistan. Reports suggest Beijing delivered advanced PL-15 air-to-air missiles to Pakistan's air force within days. Debris from one such missile, found undetonated in India's Punjab, points to Chinese involvement in Pakistan's latest assault. Pakistani jets used in combat were also Chinese-made. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD China's support for Pakistan, particularly in the context of terrorist groups, further fuels India's concerns. China reportedly blocked India's proposal at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to ban five Pakistan-based terrorists who carried out terrorist acts against India. These five terrorists are Abdul Rauf Asghar, Sajid Mir, Abdur Rehman Makki, Talha Saeed, and Shahid Mehmood Rehmatullah, who have been involved in several terror attacks in India, including the 26/11 attacks, the 2019 Pulwama attacks, the 2016 Pathankot attack, the 2001 Parliament attack, and the IC 814 hijack. India wanted to get them designated by the UNSC as global terrorists, but China blocked this effort. India's request to put sanctions on the proxy of Lashkar-e-Taiba – The Resistance Front (TRF) – the terrorist outfit which was involved in the Pahalgam terror attack last month – was also blocked by China at the UN Security Council. Lavrov also said that India is being forced by the US and Quad into military operations, even though it was formed for trade purposes. He said that India must have realised the militarisation agenda of the trade alliance and that Quad is organising naval and military exercises which target China in the garb of economic and trade cooperation. Showing his distrust of the West, Lavrov said: 'Take note of the current developments in the Asia-Pacific region, which the West has started calling the Indo-Pacific region to give its policy a clear anti-China orientation — expecting thereby to additionally make our great friends and neighbours India and China clash.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Clearly, Russia has misgivings regarding Quad, although it is a diplomatic partnership, not a military alliance. The fact is that India is not aligning with the West. Rather, it follows a policy of multi-alignment. India has carefully crafted its Indo-Pacific policy and participation in Quad so as to strengthen maritime security and maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region. On the other hand, it has also joined efforts to strengthen the multilateral forum BRICS. India is importing essential defence equipment as well as maintaining its close ties to Russia even while it has entered into a strategic partnership with the US to balance China. No doubt, India's relationship with the United States has deepened in recent years, driven by shared concerns over China's growing assertiveness in the region. However, India has been careful to avoid becoming a US ally; New Delhi has maintained an independent foreign policy and has refused to participate in any military alliance directed against China. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India's membership of Quad does not pose any threat to Russia. India has developed an independent foreign policy, carefully balancing relations with Western nations and Russia while simultaneously expanding its regional influence in the Indo-Pacific. India's foreign policy is based on strategic autonomy. India's stance on the Russia-Ukraine war substantiates this. India has not sided with the West and has chosen a course of neutrality in the war in Ukraine. It has neither condemned nor blamed Russia for the war. India abstained on all UN resolutions pertaining to Ukraine which demanded a Russian withdrawal or condemned Russia for the war with Ukraine. The fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the US in September last year to meet the former US President Joe Biden, and next month he went to Russia to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, emphasises India's strategic autonomy. In conclusion, it needs to be said that Lavrov's call to revive the RIC is to reassert Russia's importance as a power centre on the global platform. India is already walking the diplomatic tightrope by being a member of Quad on one hand and of BRICS on the other. The state of the India-China relationship is not yet such that we should let ourselves be drawn into a closer embrace of our northern neighbour, whose policies are harmful to us beyond doubt. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Perhaps we could privately share our views with the Russian leadership, explaining our concerns and telling them that for the moment, we see BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as providing enough scope for trilateral cooperation between Russia, India and China. The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as Consul General in New York. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.