15-05-2025
Venture Corporation Limited (SGX:V03) Stock's On A Decline: Are Poor Fundamentals The Cause?
With its stock down 13% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Venture (SGX:V03). To decide if this trend could continue, we decided to look at its weak fundamentals as they shape the long-term market trends. In this article, we decided to focus on Venture's ROE.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.
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The formula for ROE is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Venture is:
8.5% = S$246m ÷ S$2.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).
The 'return' is the yearly profit. One way to conceptualize this is that for each SGD1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made SGD0.08 in profit.
Check out our latest analysis for Venture
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.
At first glance, Venture's ROE doesn't look very promising. However, its ROE is similar to the industry average of 8.5%, so we won't completely dismiss the company. Having said that, Venture's five year net income decline rate was 4.1%. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with. Hence, this goes some way in explaining the shrinking earnings.
Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Venture's earnings seems to be shrinking at a similar rate as the industry which shrunk at a rate of a rate of 4.2% in the same period.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about Venture's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
Venture's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 72% (or a retention ratio of 28%). The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run.
Moreover, Venture has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 86% of its profits over the next three years. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that Venture's future ROE will be 8.6% which is again, similar to the current ROE.
In total, we would have a hard think before deciding on any investment action concerning Venture. Because the company is not reinvesting much into the business, and given the low ROE, it's not surprising to see the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
