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Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Brief: Will the top closer by ADP bounce back?
Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don scans for save sources and provides updates to unsettled or intriguing bullpens. Justin Martinez seemingly solidified his role as Arizona's closer after A.J. Puk went on the IL, but Martinez's status should be monitored after he was unavailable Sunday due to 'fatigue.' He ranks third in SIERA (1.06) and eighth in CSW (36.3%) among 215 qualified relievers, and Puk is sidelined with left elbow inflammation. Martinez can be a top 10 (if not top five) fantasy closer if he's good to go. Aroldis Chapman remains effective and the favorite for saves in Boston, but he's been used in high-leverage situations during the Red Sox's last two wins. Justin Slaten will continue to pick up ancillary saves when matchups dictate, but Chapman is still the preferred fantasy option. Boston is second in the league in save chances, so there will be ample opportunities. Ryan Pressly's leash on Chicago's closer's role likely lengthened after Porter Hodge surrendered six earned runs while recording just two outs during Friday's appearance. Pressly owns an ugly -2.1 K-BB%, so regression will come if he doesn't start pitching better. But Pressly hasn't allowed an earned run over eight straight appearances and is on pace to finish with 14 wins and 27 saves in the early going. The White Sox have remarkably yet to record a save this season (with an MLB-low two opportunities), and their bullpen can continue to be ignored in fantasy leagues. Emilio Pagán suffered his first blown save last week, but Alexis Díaz was hit hard Monday (three earned runs allowed) during his third appearance since returning off the IL. Díaz now sports a hideous -10.0 K-BB% and a disgusting 7.68 SIERA. Meanwhile, Pagán sports a 0.48 WHIP and a 22.2 K-BB%. Manager Terry Francona has previously stated he prefers Díaz to close, but Pagán looks like the clear favorite for saves in Cincinnati. He's available in 65% of Yahoo leagues. It took fewer than seven innings for Emmanuel Clase to allow more earned runs this season (six) than he did all of 2024 (74.1 innings). There are many factors involving Clase's rough start, highlighted by last season's .195 BABIP skyrocketing to .487. That's top five to bottom three. Considering his career BABIP is .259, and his expected BABIP is .302, regression should hit hard. Clase's K% is also down from 24.4 last year to 17.0 in 2025, so don't expect a league-leading ERA like last season, but he's due for much better fortune moving forward. Cade Smith, who picked up a save Monday with Clase unavailable having thrown three consecutive days, looms as an alternative if needed. But Clase's job security likely remains strong, so he's a buy-low candidate in fantasy trades. Tommy Kahnle was brought in during the eighth inning Sunday to face the Royals' 2-3-4 hitters, so he's still used in high-leverage situations and not just closing. But he's emerged as the clear favorite for saves in Detroit's bullpen, especially after Jason Foley (who was pitching well in Triple-A) was forced to the IL with a right shoulder strain. Kahnle has durability concerns himself (he was held out of Monday's save opportunity having pitched three of the previous four days), and he's thrown his changeup a whopping 85.5% of his pitches, but he remains highly effective (2.28 SIERA) when healthy. Kahnle is available in nearly 70% of Yahoo leagues. The Marlins have recorded just four saves all season combined by three different relievers. Anthony Bender (5.3 K-BB%), Calvin Faucher (3.0%) and Jesús Tinoco (-4.2%) are all uninspiring options in a committee, so most fantasy managers can ignore this situation. [Smarter waivers, better trades, optimized lineups — Yahoo Fantasy Plus unlocks it all] Trevor Megill converted a save opportunity over the weekend after undergoing an MRI and receiving a second opinion on a knee injury. Megill remains the clear favorite for saves in Milwaukee, but his velocity has been a bit down, and it's possible the knee issues return. Future closer Craig Yoho was called up Monday, while Abner Uribe has emerged as the Brewers' most likely next option to close should they need an alternative. Uribe entered 2025 far healthier than last season, and he's responded with a 2.08 SIERA and a 34.1% CSW. Uribe is available in more than 90% of Yahoo leagues, but he has real fantasy upside should his role change. Devin Williams has struggled mightily after getting traded to the Yankees, as he sports a 9.00 ERA (5.20 SIERA) with a 2.4 K-BB%. Both his K% (19.5) and his BB% (17.1) are easily career worsts. Williams' .423 BABIP is sure to come down significantly, but his velocity (93.8 mph) and Stuff+ (104) are also career lows, and his poor start has come with a 0.0 HR/FB%. Williams' SwStr% on his changeup has dropped from 23.3% last season down to 10.8% this year. Yankees fans are already concerned that Williams is struggling to handle the New York media, but his problems look correctable, and we are still talking about just 8.0 innings. Luke Weaver (35%) is the alternative, but Williams' role as closer appears secure. Dennis Santana (18%) looks like the current favorite for saves in Pittsburgh's pen, but David Bednar (39%) is the better long-term add/stash. Santana owns a 5.4 K-BB% and a 4.65 SIERA, while Bednar is one season removed from recording a National League-high 39 saves with a 2.00 ERA. Bednar struggled last season and early in 2025, but his defense deserved some of the blame for his trip back to the minors. Bednar fired five scoreless innings with a 0.20 WHIP and a 43.8 K-BB% in Triple-A, so he's seemingly 'reset.' Bednar will likely get an opportunity to close again in Pittsburgh soon, and he's available in more than 60% of Yahoo leagues.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Brief: Will the top closer by ADP bounce back?
Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don scans for save sources and provides updates to unsettled or intriguing bullpens. Justin Martinez seemingly solidified his role as Arizona's closer after A.J. Puk went on the IL, but Martinez's status should be monitored after he was unavailable Sunday due to 'fatigue.' He ranks third in SIERA (1.06) and eighth in CSW (36.3%) among 215 qualified relievers, and Puk is sidelined with left elbow inflammation. Martinez can be a top 10 (if not top five) fantasy closer if he's good to go. Aroldis Chapman remains effective and the favorite for saves in Boston, but he's been used in high-leverage situations during the Red Sox's last two wins. Justin Slaten will continue to pick up ancillary saves when matchups dictate, but Chapman is still the preferred fantasy option. Boston is second in the league in save chances, so there will be ample opportunities. Ryan Pressly's leash on Chicago's closer's role likely lengthened after Porter Hodge surrendered six earned runs while recording just two outs during Friday's appearance. Pressly owns an ugly -2.1 K-BB%, so regression will come if he doesn't start pitching better. But Pressly hasn't allowed an earned run over eight straight appearances and is on pace to finish with 14 wins and 27 saves in the early going. The White Sox have remarkably yet to record a save this season (with an MLB-low two opportunities), and their bullpen can continue to be ignored in fantasy leagues. Emilio Pagán suffered his first blown save last week, but Alexis Díaz was hit hard Monday (three earned runs allowed) during his third appearance since returning off the IL. Díaz now sports a hideous -10.0 K-BB% and a disgusting 7.68 SIERA. Meanwhile, Pagán sports a 0.48 WHIP and a 22.2 K-BB%. Manager Terry Francona has previously stated he prefers Díaz to close, but Pagán looks like the clear favorite for saves in Cincinnati. He's available in 65% of Yahoo leagues. It took fewer than seven innings for Emmanuel Clase to allow more earned runs this season (six) than he did all of 2024 (74.1 innings). There are many factors involving Clase's rough start, highlighted by last season's .195 BABIP skyrocketing to .487. That's top five to bottom three. Considering his career BABIP is .259, and his expected BABIP is .302, regression should hit hard. Clase's K% is also down from 24.4 last year to 17.0 in 2025, so don't expect a league-leading ERA like last season, but he's due for much better fortune moving forward. Cade Smith, who picked up a save Monday with Clase unavailable having thrown three consecutive days, looms as an alternative if needed. But Clase's job security likely remains strong, so he's a buy-low candidate in fantasy trades. Tommy Kahnle was brought in during the eighth inning Sunday to face the Royals' 2-3-4 hitters, so he's still used in high-leverage situations and not just closing. But he's emerged as the clear favorite for saves in Detroit's bullpen, especially after Jason Foley (who was pitching well in Triple-A) was forced to the IL with a right shoulder strain. Kahnle has durability concerns himself (he was held out of Monday's save opportunity having pitched three of the previous four days), and he's thrown his changeup a whopping 85.5% of his pitches, but he remains highly effective (2.28 SIERA) when healthy. Kahnle is available in nearly 70% of Yahoo leagues. The Marlins have recorded just four saves all season combined by three different relievers. Anthony Bender (5.3 K-BB%), Calvin Faucher (3.0%) and Jesús Tinoco (-4.2%) are all uninspiring options in a committee, so most fantasy managers can ignore this situation. [Smarter waivers, better trades, optimized lineups — Yahoo Fantasy Plus unlocks it all] Trevor Megill converted a save opportunity over the weekend after undergoing an MRI and receiving a second opinion on a knee injury. Megill remains the clear favorite for saves in Milwaukee, but his velocity has been a bit down, and it's possible the knee issues return. Future closer Craig Yoho was called up Monday, while Abner Uribe has emerged as the Brewers' most likely next option to close should they need an alternative. Uribe entered 2025 far healthier than last season, and he's responded with a 2.08 SIERA and a 34.1% CSW. Uribe is available in more than 90% of Yahoo leagues, but he has real fantasy upside should his role change. Devin Williams has struggled mightily after getting traded to the Yankees, as he sports a 9.00 ERA (5.20 SIERA) with a 2.4 K-BB%. Both his K% (19.5) and his BB% (17.1) are easily career worsts. Williams' .423 BABIP is sure to come down significantly, but his velocity (93.8 mph) and Stuff+ (104) are also career lows, and his poor start has come with a 0.0 HR/FB%. Williams' SwStr% on his changeup has dropped from 23.3% last season down to 10.8% this year. Yankees fans are already concerned that Williams is struggling to handle the New York media, but his problems look correctable, and we are still talking about just 8.0 innings. Luke Weaver (35%) is the alternative, but Williams' role as closer appears secure. Dennis Santana (18%) looks like the current favorite for saves in Pittsburgh's pen, but David Bednar (39%) is the better long-term add/stash. Santana owns a 5.4 K-BB% and a 4.65 SIERA, while Bednar is one season removed from recording a National League-high 39 saves with a 2.00 ERA. Bednar struggled last season and early in 2025, but his defense deserved some of the blame for his trip back to the minors. Bednar fired five scoreless innings with a 0.20 WHIP and a 43.8 K-BB% in Triple-A, so he's seemingly 'reset.' Bednar will likely get an opportunity to close again in Pittsburgh soon, and he's available in more than 60% of Yahoo leagues.
Yahoo
22-04-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Brief: Will the top closer by ADP bounce back?
Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don scans for save sources and provides updates to unsettled or intriguing bullpens. Arizona Diamondbacks Justin Martinez seemingly solidified his role as Arizona's closer after A.J. Puk went on the IL, but Martinez's status should be monitored after he was unavailable Sunday due to 'fatigue.' He ranks third in SIERA (1.06) and eighth in CSW (36.3) among 215 qualified relievers, and Puk is sidelined with left elbow inflammation. Martinez can be a top 10 (if not top five) fantasy closer if he's good to go. Boston Red Sox Aroldis Chapman remains effective and the favorite for saves in Boston, but he's been used in high-leverage situations during the Red Sox's last two wins. Justin Slaten will continue to pick up ancillary saves when matchups dictate, but Chapman is still the preferred fantasy option. Boston is second in the league in save chances, so there will be ample opportunities. Chicago Cubs Ryan Pressly's leash on Chicago's closer's role likely lengthened after Porter Hodge surrendered six earned runs while recording just two outs during Friday's appearance. Pressly owns an ugly -2.1 K-BB%, so regression will come if he doesn't start pitching better. But Pressly hasn't allowed an earned run over eight straight appearances and is on pace to finish with 14 wins and 27 saves in the early going. Chicago White Sox The White Sox have remarkably yet to record a save this season (with an MLB-low two opportunities), and their bullpen can continue to be ignored in fantasy leagues. Cincinnati Reds Emilio Pagán suffered his first blown save last week, but Alexis Díaz was hit hard Monday (three earned runs allowed) during his third appearance since returning off the IL. Díaz entered the outing with a hideous -9.1 K-BB% and a disgusting 7.68 SIERA. Meanwhile, Pagán sports a 0.48 WHIP and a 24.2 K-BB%. Manager Terry Francona has previously stated he prefers Díaz to close, but Pagán looks like the clear favorite for saves in Cincinnati. He's available in 65% of Yahoo leagues. Cleveland Guardians It took fewer than seven innings for Emmanuel Clase to allow more earned runs this season (six) than he did all of 2024 (74.1 innings). There are many factors involving Clase's rough start, highlighted by last season's .195 BABIP skyrocketing to .487. That's top five to bottom three. Considering his career BABIP is .259, and his expected BABIP is .302, regression should hit hard. Advertisement Clase's K% is also down from 24.4 last year to 17.0 in 2025, so don't expect a league-leading ERA like last season, but he's due for much better fortune moving forward. Cade Smith, who picked up a save Monday with Clase unavailable having thrown three consecutive days, looms as an alternative if needed. But Clase's job security likely remains strong, so he's a buy-low candidate in fantasy trades. Detroit Tigers Tommy Kahnle was brought in during the eighth inning Sunday to face the Royals' 2-3-4 hitters, so he's still used in high-leverage situations and not just closing. But he's emerged as the clear favorite for saves in Detroit's bullpen, especially after Jason Foley (who was pitching well in Triple-A) was forced to the IL with a right shoulder strain. Kahnle has durability concerns himself (he was held out of Monday's save opportunity having pitched three of the previous four days), and he's thrown his changeup a whopping 85.5% of his pitches, but he remains highly effective (2.27 SIERA) when healthy. Kahnle is available in nearly 70% of Yahoo leagues. Miami Marlins The Marlins have recorded just four saves all season combined by three different relievers. Anthony Bender (5.3 K-BB%), Calvin Faucher (3.0%) and Jesús Tinoco (-4.8%) are all uninspiring options in a committee, so most fantasy managers can ignore this situation. Advertisement [Smarter waivers, better trades, optimized lineups — Yahoo Fantasy Plus unlocks it all] Milwaukee Brewers Trevor Megill converted a save opportunity over the weekend after undergoing an MRI and receiving a second opinion on a knee injury. Megill remains the clear favorite for saves in Milwaukee, but his velocity has been a bit down, and it's possible the knee issues return. Future closer Craig Yoho was called up Monday, while Abner Uribe has emerged as the Brewers' most likely next option to close should they need an alternative. Uribe entered 2025 far healthier than last season, and he's responded with a 2.08 SIERA and a 34.1% CSW. Uribe is available in more than 90% of Yahoo leagues, but he has real fantasy upside should his role change. New York Yankees Devin Williams has struggled mightily after getting traded to the Yankees, as he sports a 9.00 ERA (5.20 SIERA) with a 2.4 K-BB%. Both his K% (19.5) and his BB% (17.1) are easily career worsts. Williams' .423 BABIP is sure to come down significantly, but his velocity (93.8 mph) and Stuff+ (104) are also career lows, and his poor start has come with a 0.0 HR/FB%. Advertisement Williams' SwStr% on his changeup has dropped from 23.3% last season down to 10.8% this year. Yankees fans are already concerned that Williams is struggling to handle the New York media, but his problems look correctable, and we are still talking about just 8.0 innings. Luke Weaver (35%) is the alternative, but Williams' role as closer appears secure. Pittsburgh Pirates Dennis Santana (18%) looks like the current favorite for saves in Pittsburgh's pen, but David Bednar (39%) is the better long-term add/stash. Santana owns a 5.4 K-BB% and a 4.65 SIERA, while Bednar is one season removed from recording a National League-high 39 saves with a 2.00 ERA. Bednar struggled last season and early in 2025, but his defense deserved some of the blame for his trip back to the minors. Bednar fired five scoreless innings with a 0.20 WHIP and a 43.8 K-BB% in Triple-A, so he's seemingly 'reset.' Bednar will likely get an opportunity to close again in Pittsburgh soon, and he's available in more than 60% of Yahoo leagues.
New York Times
12-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Buy low on pitchers Brandon Pfaadt, Sonny Gray, others after second-half swoons in fantasy baseball?
In the major leagues, pitchers can have a rough second half of the season due to bad luck, fatigue, or a deeper issue. But when they do, their downturn allows you to buy the dip. Here, I will look at five pitchers who were performing below their standards the last time we saw them in MLB games and investigate what we should expect going forward. Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball. Advertisement Take a glance at Pfaadt's stats, and it's easy to say he's compelling but hasn't figured it out yet. He gave up too many home runs and didn't have enough strikeouts. A second-half ERA just barely under 6.00 (!) drives that point home. If he was turning a corner, shouldn't we see it in the results? The answer is yes, and we are. His second half K-BB% of 22.1% was 11th among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. And yet his ERA was multiples higher than everyone around him on that leaderboard. Why? Take one look at the 'luck' stats. His BABIP was .368, which contributed to a strand rate of 57.3%. Someone has to be the unluckiest pitcher of the year, and in 2024, it was Pfaadt. Let's use SIERA, which incorporates strikeout, walk, and batted ball data to give an ERA estimate as a soundness check. That estimator says he deserved a second-half ERA of 3.30, which is slightly more desirable than his figure of 5.93. Here's the full-year picture: One of these things is not like the others. Other than offering a K per inning, Pfaadt has never been a fantasy value, and many drafters will ignore him for now. Get him while he's cheap and grow Pfaadt on the profits. Do you know those signs in small towns that point in 10 different directions? Gray's numbers are like that. From a passing glance, he looks like he's settling into the latter stages of his career, where he'll put up mid-4 ERAs until no one feels like paying him to do that. What else is there to make of a second half where he gave up a .475 slugging? Well, under the surface, Gray was an ace. Seriously. His second-half K-BB% was 24.6%, eighth among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings and just ahead of Paul Skenes. The two pitchers' BABIPs were similar, too. Skenes stranded more runners, but not nearly enough to explain the massive difference in results. So what does? Gray gave up 1.76 HR/9 versus 0.41 for the Pirates. Advertisement Gray was basically Skenes at home. In St. Louis, for the full year, Gray paired his excellent strikeout and walk rates with a 0.48 HR/9, leading to a 2.79 ERA. His other stats stayed the same when he ventured elsewhere, but his home run rate quadrupled to 1.98. I know we're getting granular here, but it gets wackier. His home run rate against lefties was elevated on the road, but not by much. Against righties … Busch Stadium is tough on righty homers, but not that tough — it's 23rd among the 30 parks in how easy it is for righties to hit it out. Gray doesn't have significant home/road splits in his career, so expect major regression for both stats, but the road rate should travel further. His 2024 ERA was his worst since he left Cincinnati, but his SIERA was the best of his career. Similarly, his Stuff+ was a meh 95, but his Pitching+ was a strong 105. As Gray ages, his four-seamer gets worse, but his sweeper is still elite, and his sinker is excellent. Below the surface stats, I see a veteran still tinkering and figuring out what works. That led to career bests in swinging strike rate, K%, BB% and SIERA. How many of you knew Sonny Gray had a 30.3% strikeout rate last year? The projections dial him back to around 25% but give him some positive regression to a mid-3s ERA. If you can pay for that, you can profit on the upside that the homer rates will normalize while the core process stats remain elite. Kirby will open the season on the IL, but his MRI apparently showed no structural issues, just inflammation, so we can be optimistic that this absence will be measured in weeks, not months. What should we expect from the game's premier control artist when he returns? At first glance, Kirby's second half looked unremarkable. His BABIP rose 16 points, and his ERA increased by 0.63, but he still kept it under 4.00. Small sample fluctuations, right? Advertisement Perhaps, but Kirby did seem to suffer some degradation in his underlying quality as the season went on. He allowed more in-zone contact and hard hits as the season went on, leading to a 4-point drop in K% in the second half, and a rise in SLG% allowed from .364 to .438. He wasn't bad, exactly, but he wasn't a great value either. His velocity and spin rates held steady throughout the year, so there wasn't an obvious injury. Eno Sarris theorized he may have become too predictable, which fits the narrative of batters making more and better contact despite comparable stuff. That all feels fixable, but it might take a little tinkering, and now he doesn't have the spring to play with. I like Kirby a lot in the long term, and a great 2025 is still in his range of outcomes, but for now, I'm knocking him down to back-end SP2 territory. Bradley is one of those pitchers who will have some stellar seasons, but he needs to unlock a new level first. That might mean adding a pitch or changing how he uses his existing arsenal. His 2024 campaign showed both sides of what he's capable of. In the first half, he was one of the league's top pitchers, with a 30.5% K rate backing a 2.90 ERA. In the second half, hitters started teeing off on his four-seamer, and his ERA nearly doubled to 5.30, while the strikeouts dropped to 23.1%. Where I see room for optimism is in how exactly those wheels came off. Bradley had a disastrous seven-start run from the end of July through August. His pitches were less effective in August, but the big culprit was his split-fingered fastball, which had given up a slugging percentage around .200 until then, before ballooning to .759. He began to right the ship at the end of the year. A lot of pitchers look like aces if you magic away their worst month, but Taj's disastrous August looks more discrete and fixable than the wobbles you'll see from pitchers with lesser stuff. That doesn't mean it won't happen again, nor can we be sure the Rays won't monkey around with his innings, but the ceiling here is still very high. Advertisement Eovaldi's second half looks like ordinary bad luck — higher BABIP, lower LOB%, slightly better K-BB%. The xFIP and 3.64 SIERA back up that narrative. The thing is, he does this every year now. In 2023, his first half ERA was a stellar 2.83. Then, he got hurt and came back for 20.1 disastrous innings in September. The year before was similar, with a strong start, followed by injuries and mixed results. It's hard to find any particular pattern except that he seems to wear down at some point in the summer. Last year, hitters swung more at pitches in the zone and hit the ball harder as the year went on, suggesting his stuff, predictability, or both were going in the wrong direction. Eovaldi is still a good pitcher; you can reasonably say he was unlucky last year. However, if you get two or three good months out of him, I'd see what you can get for him in a trade. (Top photo of Brandon Pfaadt: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
NBC Sports
11-03-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
Starting pitcher draft values for 2025 fantasy baseball: Why Max Meyer, Lucas Giolito could finish top 25
Finding value is a huge part of fantasy baseball success. While you need to hit on your early-round picks, being able to find key contributors late in the draft is a surefire way to rocket up your standings. For me, the best place to find value is with starting pitching. I started this article two years ago as a way to identify some starting pitchers who weren't getting enough love in drafts. In that first season, I was able to hit on Kyle Bradish, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Bryce Miller (while missing on Roansy Contreras and Ken Waldichuk), and then last year, we hit on Jared Jones and Reese Olson while missing on A.J. Puk, DL Hall, and Garrett Whitlock (I guess I picked the wrong converted relievers). The premise for this article came from The Process, by Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell. In their book, they report that, in 12-team leagues, 45% of undrafted pitchers finish the season in the top 108 starting pitchers. That means that 45% of pitchers with an average ADP outside of the top 108 pitchers at the start of the season will eventually end up inside the top 108 pitchers in value. They also found that 20% of undrafted pitchers in 12-team leagues end up inside the top 25 in terms of season-long value and that 50% of undrafted pitchers will have top-25 weekly value at some point in the season. If you can find one of those pitchers who finishes with top 25 value, woo boy. The goal for today is to try and unearth who those pitchers might be. Even though the top 108 pitchers drafted in these leagues include relievers, we're going to focus on just starting pitchers who are going outside of that because, statistically speaking, it's far more likely for a starter to catapult into the top 25 than for an undrafted reliever to pop top-25 value. For me, there are a few things that I'm looking for when trying to find a starting pitcher who could jump to the top of the heap. A chance at 130 innings or more Strikeout Upside (which, to me, means a big swing-and-miss pitch apart from a fastball) Fastball velocity (to me, this provides a safe floor; it's hard to succeed around a bad fastball) An arsenal of three pitches or more (I believe that a pitcher needs a fastball for strikes, a secondary for called strikes, and a secondary for swinging strikes). The ADP used is from March 1st to March 10th in NFBC Online Championships, which is 26 drafts. Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Draft Values First, I just want to mention four pitchers I thought about including here but ultimately didn't feel as confident about due to injuries or lack of consistency: Brayan Bello, Reid Detmers, Grant Holmes, and David Peterson. You can check out my thoughts on Detmers and Bello in this article on SIERA underperformers, and check out my thoughts on Peterson in this article about late-round starting pitchers. So, who made the cut? Chance at 130 innings: Soriano threw 113 innings last year while missing the final month of the season while battling arm fatigue. There was nothing structurally wrong with his shoulder, but he had only thrown 73.1 innings in 2023, so it makes sense that he wore down a bit as the season went on. I think he's a good bet for 140-150 innings in the Angels' rotation this year. Strikeout Upside: Soriano had just a 20.7% strikeout rate last season, but he has two plus breaking balls in his curve and slider, and that's where the strikeout upside comes from for me. His curve had a 15.1% SwStr% to righties and a 14.8% SwStr% to lefties, so he can use it to attack all hitters, and his slider had a 19% SwStr% to righties. He also adds in a splitter that registered a 17.1% SwStr% to lefties, so there are plenty of whiff pitches in the arsenal. Fastball Success: The fastball command has been a real issue for Soriano so far, but the shape of the pitches is fine. His primary fastball is a sinker that sits 98 mph and has nearly 16 inches of horizontal movement. It's nasty. He uses it primarily low in the zone, which I don't like, but I think much of that is his concern with throwing it up and in to righties when he can't command it all that well. He also has a 99 mph four-seamer that he uses primarily to lefties, but it has this weird combination of run without much vertical movement, so it's not an ideal pitch. Deep Pitch Mix: Soriano has five pitches, and four of them are plus. The only 'poor' pitch is his four-seam fastball, and he doesn't use it that often; it's just to set up the curve and splitter for lefties only. If he can just command his sinker better in 2025, he could be in for a huge breakout, which I covered in some detail when I discussed him as one of my favorite late-round picks. Chance at 130 innings: Meyer threw 112 innings last year, split between Triple-A and the Majors. It was also his first year back after missing all of 2023 with Tommy John surgery, so that should make us feel pretty good about Meyer reaching at least 130 now that he seems locked into Miami's rotation. Meyer has taken steps forward this spring to build on his prospect pedigree, and trade rumors are circling Sandy Alcantara, so I don't think anybody is bumping Meyer from this rotation because they're more talented. By the time Eury Perez comes off the IL, Sandy Alcantara could be on another team, or Perez could bump Cal Quantrill from the rotation. Strikeout Upside: This is the place where Meyer needs to step up the most because he has a career 19% strikeout rate in 63 MLB innings, and that's just not going to cut it. However, Meyer has made two key changes this off-season that have showcased a new level of upside. The primary one is that he lowered his arm angle, which has made him closer to the pitcher he was when he was drafted 3rd overall in 2020 out of the University of Minnesota. That has led to added velocity (more on that later) but also added movement on some of his offerings. Combine that with the fact that he has added a slower sweeper to complement his harder slider and a sinker that he can jam right-handed hitters inside with, and we're starting to see a much different arsenal. I love the two sliders here from Meyer because I think it creates an important level of deception that will lead to a major bump in his strikeout rate. At least to right-handed hitters. The strikeout pitch to lefties is worrying me a bit here. Fastball Success: Here is where we come back to the added velocity. Meyer has been sitting around 96 mph this spring, which is almost two mph up from last year. Some of that can be attributed to the new arm angle, but he also put on 20 pounds of muscle this offseason to try and do just this. The velocity and arm angle have led to a flatter fastball that could excel up in the strike zone for swinging strikes. Now that he also has the sinker that he can use to righties, they can't sit on one fastball variation, which means the four-seamer could play up even more as a swing-and-miss-pitch. Deep Pitch Mix: This is another area where Meyer has become a different pitcher, as you can see from the awesome table above put together by Putcher List's Kyle Bland. Previously, Meyer had basically just had his 88mph slider, which he threw over 40% of the time, and his mediocre four-seamer. Now, he added a sweeper and sinker to that, plus the changeup he mixes in 15% of the time. That's a five-pitch mix where the slider, sweeper, sinker, and four-seamer all got better this off-season. Chance at 130 innings: Giolito is back! He makes his spring debut for the Red Sox on March 11th after missing all of last year with Tommy John surgery. Now, Giolito has been a top-25 starting pitcher before, so the case for him is a little different from some of these other guys because it's just about him showcasing a level we've already seen from him. He says he is going to be ready to start the season, and the Red Sox already have said that Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello are unlikely to be ready by Opening Day, so Giolito should be in the rotation from the start, and this is a team that is trying to win a championship, so if he's pitching well, they're just going to keep him in the rotation. That makes 130 innings feel like a good bet here. Strikeout Upside: For his career, Giolito has a 25.3% strikeout rate and was over 25% in each of his last two seasons, even when he was struggling elsewhere, so strikeouts have never been a huge problem. The larger question is whether he can get back to that 28% strikeout rate range, and I think there is a clear path for it. Last year, I covered some of the changes Giolito was making in spring training before he got hurt, and a couple of them caught my eye. In those three spring starts, the Red Sox had seemingly tweaked Giolito's slider, which was something he had said in the off-season they told him they had a plan for. Back in 2021, Giolito's slider averaged 85.6 mph, with more than 4.7 inches of vertical movement and 2.7 inches of horizontal movement. The pitch had a 20.3% SwStr%, allowed just a 33% ICR, and had a .167 batting average against. By 2023, he was throwing the pitch almost two mph slower and with more curveball shape. The SwStr% on the pitch fell to 15.9% with a 40.5% ICR and a .236 batting average allowed. He also threw it for fewer strikes. Last year, the Red Sox had him throw the slider harder again and made the pitch less curveball-ish. Getting Giolto back to his older slider would be huge for his strikeout potential since we know he also has that elite changeup. Fastball Success: This will be the big thing we want to see early on from Giolito, and we're not going to get usable data on it in his first spring outing, so we just have to keep an eye on this. Last spring, Giolito was sitting around 95 mph with his four-seamer, but then we know he blew out his elbow. The last time he averaged 94 mph or higher on his fastball was a three-year stretch from 2019-2021 that saw him pitch to a 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 30.7% strikeout rate in 427.2 innings. Giolito gets solid extension and good induced vertical break (iVB) on his four-seam, so if he can add velocity and can keep the pitch at the top of the zone, it can be a huge pitch for him since he tends to go as his fastball goes. Deep Pitch Mix: Giolito will be mainly a four-seamer, changeup, and slider pitcher, but he does have a curveball he can mix in, and he had previously thrown a sinker. We know that the Red Sox like to have pitchers throw multiple fastball variations and don't like them to rely so much on the four-seamer, so we should expect that sinker (or maybe a cutter) to show up in 2025, which will give him four or five pitches he can go to regularly. We know Giolito was battling some off-field issues in 2023 and then was traded across the country to an Angels team that fell apart. In 21 starts with the White Sox in 2023 before the trade, he had a 3.79 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, 1.22 WHIP, 12.3% SwStr%, and 28.8% CSW. So he was a decent pitcher for the majority of the last season we saw him on the mound. If the Red Sox can make him better than that version, we could see something closer to the 2019-2021 version of Giolito, and that is a very good starting pitcher. Chance at 130 innings: To me, this is the biggest thing keeping Matthews from being drafted higher. He pitched 129.2 innings between the minors and Majors in 2024, so durability isn't a concern. The issue is whether or not Matthews will get enough of a crack at the MLB rotation. As it stands, he's probably on the outside looking in, with Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods-Richardson likely to begin the year with Minnesota, but here's the thing: Zebby is better than both of those guys. At some point, we just have to bet on talent to win out. I know many people think David Festa will get the next shot if a starting spot opens up, but I think Zebby is better, and we'll get into that here. Strikeout Upside: Zebby had a 30.5% strikeout rate in the minors last year, including a 28.4% rate in his 19 innings in Triple-A. In his brief MLB sample, his slider posted a 20.4% swinging strike rate, while his cutter posted above-average marks to left-handed hitters. His slider is a harder, gyro slider, so he can use it to both righties and lefties, which makes it a legit swing-and-miss pitch for any hitter he faces. He also tightened up his cutter this off-season, which should make it a better bridge pitch between his four-seamer and slider and could add deception for all of those offerings. Fastball Success: A big change for Zebby this spring has been that his fastball is up to 96 mph, which is important. It's a flat fastball that has success up in the zone, but he doesn't have good extension on it, so the added velocity would be nice. He has above-average iVB on it as well, and he does a great job locating it, which is the hallmark of Zebby's success overall. Last year, in his small MLB sample, the four-seam fastball had a 26% PutAway rate, which measures the rate at which a pitch thrown in two-strike counts results in a strikeout. The MLB average for starting pitchers on a four-seam fastball was 17% last year, so Zebby is way above that, which makes sense with his fastball location and shape. Deep Pitch Mix: This is another area where Zebby might feel like a stretch because he has only three pitches that he uses over 7% of the time; however, if we break it down by batter handedness, it looks more enticing. Against right-handed hitters last year, he used the ofur-seam fastball 41% of the time, slider 33% of the time, and cutter 22% of the time. Against lefties, he only used the slider 21% and the cutter 13% but added in the changeup 12% of the time and the curve 10% of the time. That means he essentially has at least three pitches he can use to hitters of each handedness, and that's music to our ears. The changeup and curve are inconsistent, but they give lefties a couple of other looks to think about, which matters. You pair that kind of arsenal with elite command, and I mean ELITE command, and you couldn't have something here. Matthews had just a 3% walk rate last season across three minor league levels, which gave him some of the best control in, quite literally, all of baseball. As a 24-year-old who started last season in High-A and then made his MLB debut by the end of the season, there is a lot to dream on here. Chance at 130 innings: At this point, I don't believe Jack Leiter is in the Texas rotation, so that could be what caps his innings projection here; however, he threw 112.2 innings combined last season, so he would certainly have the ability to hit 130 or more innings if he was given the opportunity. I believe the Rangers want Leiter to face MLB hitters. He has shown that he can make adjustments at the Triple-A level, and his 33.3% strikeout rate in 77 Triple-A innings last year suggests that he doesn't have much left to prove there. The Rangers could start the season with Leiter as a multi-inning reliever and then give him the first crack at a starting job if any of Tyler Mahle, Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, or Jon Gray get hurt, as they have for many of their professional seasons. Mahle himself is only throwing 92 mph this spring and doesn't seem like the pitcher we have come to know, so there's a chance Leiter takes his spot very soon. Strikeout Upside: As I just mentioned above, Leiter had a 33.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A, so there is certainly strikeout upside there. He didn't pitch particularly well in his small MLB sample size last year, but his four-seamer posted a well-above-average 15.9% SwStr%, and his curveball also posted a 15.8% SwStr%. Yet, it's his slider that has been his best pitch in the minors last year and grades out as a 60 on scouting scales. He did a lot of work last year on refining his mechanics so that he could command his secondary pitches better, and we saw real improvement at the minor league level. Given that he came to spring training with some new pitches (more on that later), we could see yet another step in development for Leiter in 2025. Fastball Success: One of the biggest changes for Leiter has been that he is sitting 98 mph on his fastball in spring training with less horizontal movement, or run, on his four-seamer. That has made the four-seamer even flatter, which is helping it miss even more bats up in the zone. He commands the pitch well, which helped ensure that Leiter already had an elite four-seamer, so these changes just put it over the top even more. There's also a great breakdown on Twitter from a Blue Jays minor league pitching coach about the changes Leiter made to his mechanics, which have led to this uptick in velocity but also his improved performance overall this spring. Pitcher List Deep Pitch Mix: As you can see from Kyle Bland's chart above, there are two big changes for Leiter's pitch mix this spring. For one, he has added a sinker, which is part of the reason he also worked to take horizontal movement off of his four-seamer. Being able to run a sinker in on the hands of righties will allow the four-seamer to play up more but also open up the outside part of the plate for his curve and slider. The other big change is that Leiter has added a kick-change, which Lance Brozdowski broke down in this video here. The kick-change is almost two mph harder than the changeup he used to use and has significantly more drop and run away from lefties. It has been a dynamic pitch for him this spring and deepens his arsenal even more. The slider coming in at 89 mph should enable him to use it to both righties and lefties, but this new changeup means that he has that plus the slider, and four-seamer to lefties. Also, since the kick-change is almost like a splitter in many ways, it's a pitch that can be used to both righties and lefties, which gives Leiter so many new possible ways to attack hitters. If we knew he was locked into a starting job right now, I'd have him ranked right around guys like Nick Pivetta, so I think you're getting major value on Leiter right now in drafts. Every year, I include a few prospects who likely won't break camp in their team's rotation, which makes them hard to draft in most formats, but they are players I want to highlight. I should first mention Bubba Chandler - Pittsburgh Pirates Chandler is currently being drafted 289th overall as the 116th pitcher, so he's close to the cut-off. However, his ADP has risen (the number has gotten higher) as it's become clearer that the Pirates are not likely to break camp with him in the rotation. The Pirates have a history of being aggressive with their pitching prospects, and Chandler has the upside to match or surpass what Jared Jones did last year, so he's certainly a name to keep an eye on. Quinn Mathews - St. Louis Cardinals The Cardinals are rebuilding, so they should give prospects like Mathews a chance, but we know they're not going to early in the season. However, Andre Pallante has not looked good this soring, and Steven Matz has a long injury history, so a rotation spot could open up soon. This spring, Mathews showed off a 94 mph four-seamer with a sinker and slider that he can mix in to lefties. However, he makes his bones with a ridiculous changeup that had a 53% whiff rate in the minors last year. It absolutely eats up right-handed hitters and made some veteran MLB hitters look foolish this spring. Since he can also mix in the slider to righties as well, he can attack all hitters with at least three different pitches, which gives him the deep arsenal we like. He has a good track record with volume from his time at Stanford, so him throwing 150 innings wouldn't be a concern. He's one of the pitching prospects I think could be up soon, and I'm looking to stash him as soon as I hear a call-up might be imminent.
