Latest news with #SahmRule
Yahoo
25-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Job applications surging among DOGE's targets in federal government
As the Department of Government Efficiency upends federal agencies, a new report released Tuesday by the job listing website Indeed shows the number of workers looking for new jobs has spiked. Job applications from workers at agencies targeted by DOGE are up 75% compared with 2022, according to the report's data. And while job applications among all workers increased after the Trump transition, the spike in applications from DOGE-targeted workers is especially pronounced. Applications from federal workers in DOGE-targeted agencies, which include the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the U.S. Agency for International Development, surged 60 percentage points from January to February, according to Indeed's data. 'We've never seen something like this after a presidential administration and inauguration,' said Cory Stahle, an Indeed economist. While there were increases in job applications among federal workers after the 2016 and 2020 elections, those increases were an order of magnitude lower, Stahle said. The 2025 surge coincides with the aggressive downsizing initiated early in Donald Trump's presidency, and it comes at a time when white-collar work is stagnating. 'It's not a good time to be looking for a job,' Stahle said. The affected workers are spread out across the country. While nearly 500,000 federal workers live in Washington, D.C., Maryland or Virginia, Indeed's data shows that 80% of active federal worker profiles are tied to locations elsewhere. Nearly a third of those workers are in the South, excluding D.C., Maryland and Virginia. They also tend to be more educated, potentially increasing competition in an already tough job market. 'What we see is that 70% of them have a bachelor's degree or above,' Stahle said. 'This is a really educated group of job seekers.' Stahle noted that the influx is happening amid a historically weak market for such sectors, saying: 'It's going to increase the competitiveness of the labor market.' In addition, jobs affected by cuts are often highly specialized. 'If you are a displaced USDA worker with a background in horticulture, you know, what do your prospects look like right now?' Stahle said. Job searchers, who Stahle said tended to be mid- to senior level, also were in their current jobs for longer, with an average tenure of 11 years, according to federal data. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated Monday that fired workers will get the chance to look for jobs in the private sector, but the shocks could extend beyond job-seeking. Unemployment, among other data points, is an early indicator of recessions. Thus far, it — along with other relevant data points, such as the yield curve and consumer spending — have held relatively steady. But plunging consumer sentiment could be a signal of what's to come. Economist Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve and White House economist who created a widely used indicator, the 'Sahm Rule,' to identify oncoming downturns through unemployment, cautioned that cuts could damage consumer spending. That's even among those who are not directly affected. 'Many of them won't lose their job, because we do need a certain number of federal workers to make everything go,' Sahm told NBC News. 'But at this point there are a lot of people who are very uncertain from day to day what their employment is.' 'Are they going to go out and buy a house? Are they going to go buy a car?' Sahm asked, sharing a gray outlook for consumer spending: 'The very rational response would be don't go out and buy stuff.' The overall risk to the economy is small, Sahm said, because federal workers made up less than 2% of the overall U.S. labor force. But she warns that while DOGE alone might not cause a recession, it could lead to one. 'The fast-moving process of DOGE is adding unnecessarily to the risks,' Sahm said on her blog. 'Once they take hold, recessionary dynamics are difficult to avoid and costly to 'fix.'' This article was originally published on
NBC News
25-03-2025
- Business
- NBC News
Job applications surging among DOGE's targets
'What we see is that 70% of them have a bachelor's degree or above,' Stahle said. 'This is a really educated group of job seekers.' Stahle noted that the influx is happening amid a historically weak market for such sectors, saying: 'It's going to increase the competitiveness of the labor market.' In addition, jobs affected by cuts are often highly specialized. 'If you are a displaced USDA worker with a background in horticulture, you know, what do your prospects look like right now?' Stahle said. Job searchers, who Stahle said tended to be mid- to senior level, also were in their current jobs for longer, with an average tenure of 11 years, according to federal data. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated Monday that fired workers will get the chance to look for jobs in the private sector, but the shocks could extend beyond job-seeking. Unemployment, among other data points, is an early indicator of recessions. Thus far, it — along with other relevant data points, such as the yield curve and consumer spending — have held relatively steady. But plunging consumer sentiment could be a signal of what's to come. Economist Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve and White House economist who created a widely used indicator, the 'Sahm Rule,' to identify oncoming downturns through unemployment, cautioned that cuts could damage consumer spending. That's even among those who are not directly affected. 'Many of them won't lose their job, because we do need a certain number of federal workers to make everything go,' Sahm told NBC News. 'But at this point there are a lot of people who are very uncertain from day to day what their employment is.' 'Are they going to go out and buy a house? Are they going to go buy a car?' Sahm asked, sharing a gray outlook for consumer spending: 'The very rational response would be don't go out and buy stuff.' The overall risk to the economy is small, Sahm said, because federal workers made up less than 2% of the overall U.S. labor force. But she warns that while DOGE alone might not cause a recession, it could lead to one. 'The fast-moving process of DOGE is adding unnecessarily to the risks,' Sahm said on her blog. 'Once they take hold, recessionary dynamics are difficult to avoid and costly to 'fix.''
Yahoo
12-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
January CPI: One inflation print won't 'alter the path' for Fed
The latest inflation report out Wednesday morning is raising concerns, as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw inflation rise by 0.5% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, above economist forecasts. The uptick is sparking discussions about the Federal Reserve's next moves and what it might mean for the markets. New Century Advisors chief economist Claudia Sahm and UBS Global Wealth Management Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Leslie Falconio join Morning Brief to weigh in on what the economic data could mean for the Federal Reserve's next move. "There's no sugarcoating this. This is not a good print," Sahm, Federal Reserve Board economist and the creator of the central bank's Sahm Rule recession indicator, says. "The one thing to say is this is a familiar disappointment. We have seen January effects that have been... upside surprises, hotter prints at the beginning of the year." Falconio adds that such data points don't drastically change the market outlook (ES=F, NQ=F, YM=F), echoing Sahm's sentiments by noting that "one number doesn't necessarily alter the path." Both experts agree the Fed will likely remain cautious and data-dependent, with a focus on longer-term trends rather than reacting to a single report. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. This post was written by Josh Lynch
