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Forbes
30-03-2025
- Sport
- Forbes
March Madness: Questions Surround The Future Of College Basketball
March Madness has earned its reputation for being thrilling, unpredictable, and fiercely competitive. Throughout its illustrious history, the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament has witnessed numerous upsets and Cinderella stories. Mid-major programs have made improbable runs, and part of the tournament's appeal is rooting for the underdog. In the past twenty years, mid-major programs such as George Mason (2006), Virginia Commonwealth (2011), and Loyola Chicago (2018) have all earned Final Four appearances as 11-seeded teams. There were four 15-seeded teams that reached the Sweet 16: Florida Gulf Coast (2013), Oral Roberts (2021), Saint Peter's (2022), and Princeton (2023), with Saint Peter's advancing to the Elite Eight in 2022. Current Boston Celtics General Manager Brad Stevens shocked the college basketball world by leading the Butler Bulldogs to consecutive NCAA championship game appearances in 2010 and 2011, where they were seeded fifth and eighth, respectively. Wichita State played in the Final Four as a 9-seed in 2013. Most recently, Florida Atlantic also made a run to the Final Four as a 9-seed in 2023, ultimately losing to fellow mid-major program and fifth seeded San Diego State in the national semifinals. To the contrary, this year's tournament has produced rather conventional results. The Final Four consists of all top-seeded teams, marking only the second time this has happened since the tournament's expansion in 1985; previously occurring in 2008. The Elite Eight included all four top seeds, three second seeds, and one third seed. For the first time since 1975, the Sweet 16 comprised entirely of teams from power conferences. Although definitive conclusions cannot be drawn from this season's tournament, many college basketball enthusiasts and participants speculate that the primary factors contributing to the dominance of top-tier teams are recent changes to the NCAA's transfer portal and the ongoing importance of the NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) policy. Impact of the Transfer Portal and NIL The transfer portal, introduced in 2018, was designed to enhance the transparency of the transfer process and provide student-athletes with greater freedom of choice. A rule implemented in 2021 permitted athletes to transfer once without the requirement of sitting out for a year. Basketball was one of the few sports that required a waiver to complete the transfer process. However, as of 2024, college basketball players no longer need to obtain a waiver from the NCAA. They can now transfer as many times as they wish without having to sit out for a year, as long as they enter the transfer portal within the designated timeframe and meet specified academic requirements. The flexibility of this policy has led to a substantial number of transfers. Since March 24th, more than 1,000 Division I men's basketball players have entered the transfer portal, with several additional players expected to do so before the closing date of April 22nd. Since the NCAA adopted an interim NIL policy in 2021, student-athletes are able to financially benefit from their name, image, and likeness. This granted them the autonomy to explore sponsorship opportunities and entrepreneurial ventures to maximize their financial potential. California was the first state to adopt a policy in 2019 by enacting the Fair Pay to Play Act, which allowed college athletes to receive compensation for their name, image, and likeness, effectively pressuring the NCAA to do the same. Currently, there are 32 states that have passed NIL laws, using California's legislation as a model. An NIL valuation represents the estimated market worth of a student-athlete, taking into account various factors such as social media presence, on-court performance, and media exposure. This valuation is used to predict the potential earnings of the individual. As of March 2025, the highest NIL valuation for a college basketball player belongs to Duke's freshman forward Cooper Flagg, who is estimated to have a roster value of $4.8 million. Duke, one of the clear favorites before the tournament began, will play in the Final Four next weekend. Are Mid-Majors Now Developmental Programs? Although college sports have long been characterized by a divide between the 'haves and have nots', mid-major basketball programs encounter even greater challenges competing within this evolving landscape due to limited resources and geographical constraints. Recently, several elite college basketball players have transferred from successful mid-major programs to power conference teams. Among them is the talented forward Johni Broome, who previously played for Morehead State and is now a contender for the Naismith Player of the Year award with Auburn. A few other notable mid-major conference transfers to power conference teams include Walter Clayton Jr. to Florida (from Iona), Mark Sears to Alabama (from Ohio), Chaz Lanier to Tennessee (from North Florida), J.T. Toppin to Texas Tech (from New Mexico), and Lamont Butler Jr. to Kentucky (from San Diego State). This suggests that mid-major programs are becoming a minor league structure of sorts, preparing players to transition to more prominent programs. As previously discussed, a major shift that impacts mid-major programs is the NIL opportunities for players. In the past, top prospects might leave a power conference program in order to showcase their talents with enhanced playing time at a mid-major school. However, the financial resources available today are so significant that prospects are willing to sit on the bench for power conference schools. Oakland University's head coach, Greg Kampe, the longest-tenured head coach in men's college basketball, led the Golden Grizzlies to a monumental upset over the 3-seeded Kentucky in last season's NCAA tournament. Oakland lost its top forward, Trey Towsend, to Arizona afterward. Coach Kampe recently told Yahoo Sports, 'He's making 20 times what I could give him this season,' and reiterated the challenges mid-major programs face in retaining talent. Is College Basketball Better or Worse? There are differing perspectives on this subject. The counterargument is that college basketball is better positioned for the future with NIL agreements, as they increase the likelihood of players remaining in college to earn income. Major basketball brands from conferences, such as the ACC and SEC, have the opportunity to strengthen their rosters by recruiting players from mid-major programs. Many believe this strategy fosters brand recognition, boosts revenue, and contributes to a more competitive landscape. Regardless, various fans, athletes, coaches, administrators, and media personalities hold strong opinions on the current direction of college sports. The athletic success of a smaller university can evoke a sense of civic pride. Many alumni from mid-major universities take pride in witnessing their alma mater upset a top-ranked team or qualify for the NCAA tournament. Whether fans support a favored team or an underdog, most issues come down to economics. College basketball has entered a new era, for better or for worse.
Associated Press
27-03-2025
- Sport
- Associated Press
Don't write off future Cinderellas just because it's an all-power conference Sweet 16, coaches say
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Nearly every year there's at least one lovable underdog that rises from obscurity in the NCAA Tournament to capture the hearts of basketball fans and bust their brackets. Not this year. All 16 regional semifinalists are from power conferences for the first time since the bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The popular theory is that the transfer portal has led to a concentration of the best players at the big schools paying the most NIL money and, soon, the most through revenue sharing. Is this year just an anomaly? Purdue coach Matt Painter, whose 2023 team became the second No. 1 seed of all-time to lose to a No. 16 (Fairleigh Dickinson), sure hopes not. 'The upsets and how valuable the upsets are to the common fan, it's created March Madness,' he said Thursday. 'Let's not get away from it. It's a big piece of March Madness.' Arizona's Tommy Lloyd said it's too early to know if the days of Cinderellas are over, or at least not as common. 'I don't know if there's enough sample size yet to say this is NIL-driven or just how it broke this year,' Lloyd said. There were three straight 15-seeds in the Sweet 16 three straight years recently — Oral Roberts in 2021, Saint Peter's in 2022 and Princeton in 2023. Those Peacocks of Saint Peter's made it all the way to the Elite Eight. And remember Florida Gulf Coast's 'Dunk City' team in 2013? It was the first No. 15 to win two games in a tournament. How about 2018 Loyola-Chicago, Sister Jean and the 11th-seeded Ramblers' run to the Final Four? Those types of storylines are conspicuously missing this year with the SEC sending a record seven teams to the Sweet 16, the Big Ten and Big 12 four apiece and the ACC one. That doesn't mean the little guys haven't provided some highlights. No. 12 seed McNeese State, with its social media star student manager, knocked off Clemson, while No. 11 Drake and its four Division II transfer starters took out Missouri, and No. 15 Robert Morris played Alabama close until fading at the end. Kentucky's Mark Pope said those games provided requisite March drama, and the depth of talent pool among players and coaches is so deep that there'll always be jarring upsets. 'I think it's because it's a pure meritocracy,' he said. 'Once you start playing, doesn't matter what your budget is, doesn't matter if you came in on a bus or flew in on a plane. Doesn't matter if you don't have 17 different uniforms or if you have only one. Doesn't matter if you have holes in your shoes or your 75th new pair.' BYU coach Kevin Young said this year's Sweet 16 field illustrates the struggle mid-majors face in the new era of college athletics. 'It's not even that people are coming to get their players,' he said. 'Kids are smart; they see what's out there, and they think that they can better their situation by going in the portal and maybe going to a bigger school that can offer more to them.' Three of the five first-team AP All-Americans this season started out at programs outside the power conference — Auburn's Johni Broome at Morehead State, Alabama's Mark Sears at Ohio and Florida's Walter Clayton Jr. at Robert Morris. Same with three of the second-team picks — JT Toppin of Texas Tech (New Mexico), RJ Luis Jr. of St. John's (UMass) and John Tonje of Wisconsin (Colorado State). Nate Oats, who parlayed March magic at Buffalo into his current job at Alabama, said coaches at strong mid-major programs face a nearly impossible task keeping their rosters intact. 'I don't know that I would have been able to keep my whole team together at Buffalo in today's day and age,' said Oats, whose 2018 and '19 teams won first-round games. While power-conference programs are trending older with the transfer portal and not relying as much on high school recruits, Oats said, mid-majors that bring in the very best young talent will still have opportunities to win in March. 'There's a lot of freshmen that are not getting offered at the high-major level that would have used to get offered that now are ending up at mid-major schools, and some of them are really good,' Oats said. 'Those mid-major schools, they're going to have to do a really good job of evaluating talent coming out of high school. 'I think it's still going to be done, but it might be a little bit harder. I think you'll still see some Cinderellas coming through.'
Fox Sports
20-03-2025
- Sport
- Fox Sports
2025 NCAA Tournament: The traits behind what makes up a 'Cinderella' team in March Madness
It's finally here. The first round of the NCAA Tournament, affectionately dubbed as "March Madness" will begin on Thursday, March 20th. The 86th annual edition of the tournament will see the usual suspects try and win the national championship. But what truly makes the tournament special is how often we see smaller schools and underdogs make incredible runs, which is what really causes the "madness." These underdogs are often called "Cinderella" teams, with fans trying to pick them out each year ahead of the tournament. But what characteristics make up a Cinderella? And are there similarities among all the past ones? FOX Sports Research dove into the data and identified several traits that comprise a Cinderella. First, we've highlighted a few notable Cinderella teams in recent memory to set up our analysis. Let's take a look: Notable runs over the past 15 years All of the teams below made it to at least the Elite Eight, and were double-digit seeds in the tournament: 2024 NC State (11 seed) It's not often you see a team go 9-11 in conference play, and then go on to make the tournament— let alone go dancing all the way to the Final Four. But that's just what the 2023-24 NC State team did, only making the field of 64 because they somehow won the ACC Tournament. For perspective, the Wolfpack were 50-1 to win the conference tourney, taking down the pre-tournament favorite Tar Heels in the final. They took down a 6-seed in Texas Tech in the opening round and went on to beat (14) Oakland, (2) Marquette, and (4) Duke before losing to (10) Purdue in the Final Four. 2022 Saint Peter's (15 seed) There might not be a more magical run than this 2022 Saint Peter's squad, which miraculously became the first 15-seed ever to make the Elite Eight. After winning the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament, the Peacocks opened the dance with a huge upset win over second-seeded Kentucky. John Calipari entered that game 19-1 all-time in the Round of 64. After defeating the Wildcats, Saint Peter's took down (7) Murray State and (3) Purdue before losing to (8) North Carolina. 2021 UCLA (11 seed) UCLA, a Cinderella? In the 2021 season, they absolutely were. The Bruins barely made the tournament, entering the field as a First Four participant after going 22-10 in the regular season. After beating Michigan State in overtime in that game, Mick Cronin & Co. would go on to rattle off four straight wins against (6) BYU, (14) Abilene Christian, (2) Alabama in overtime, and (1) Michigan before losing to Gonzaga on a half-court buzzer-beater by Jalen Suggs. Had that shot not gone, they would have been the first team to make the national title game after starting the tournament in the First Four. 2018 Loyola Chicago (11 seed) No one can forget the Ramblers' run in 2018. After winning the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, Porter Moser led a talented group all the way to the Final Four. In the first round, they took down (6) Miami and subsequently beat (3) Tennessee, (7) Nevada and 9 (Kansas State) before losing to (3) Michigan in the semifinals. They'd finish the season with a 32-6 record and go on to make the Sweet 16 in 2021. Loyola Chicago and Wichita State are the only Missouri Valley schools to have ever made the Final Four. The Flyers didn't even win the Atlantic 10 Tournament in 2014, but still qualified for the tournament as an 11 seed. Archie Miller would take them all the way to the Elite Eight, opening up the tournament with a victory over (6) Ohio State. In the next round, they took down (3) Syracuse in a two-point barn-burner before eventually beating (10) Stanford in the Sweet 16. They'd lose to (1) Florida by ten points, but are still just the sixth Atlantic 10 school to make the Elite Eight since 1985 (Temple, UMass, Rhode Island, Saint Joseph's, Xavier)— as well as the most recent. 2011 VCU (11 seed) Before 2024 UCLA, there was 2011 VCU. Despite losing to Old Dominion in the championship game of the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament, VCU made the big dance as a First Four team. This was also the first year in which the round was introduced, and VCU took advantage of it— going all the way to the Final Four after defeating (11) USC for one of the four final spots in the tournament. They'd go on to take down (6) Georgetown in the opening round, followed by (3) Purdue, (10) Florida State and (1) Kansas— before ultimately losing to (8) Butler in the semifinals. They are one of two CAA teams to make the Final Four, along with 2006 George Mason. The Dynamic Duo Cinderella's are always led by a pair of players who shift into a different gear in tournament play. From Jason Richards and Steph Curry for Davidson in 2008 to Bryce Drew and Zoran Viskovic for Valparaiso in 1998, a dynamic duo has become a common theme among teams to make a Cinderella run. Below, we've listed the duo for each of the six teams we mentioned earlier, along with their statistical averages in each respective NCAA Tournament appearance. While some of the numbers might seem low for a few players, keep in mind that all of these individuals played between four and six games— as everyone on the list made it to at least the Elite Eight. DJ Burns Jr. (2024 NC State): 16.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 63% FG PCT DJ Horne (2024 NC State): 17.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.4 APG Daryl Banks (2022 Saint Peter's): 13.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 39% 3-pt FG PCT Doug Edert (2022 Saint Peter's): 11.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 40% 3-pt FG PCT Johnny Juzang (2021 UCLA): 22.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 51 % FG PCT, 38% 3-pt FG PCT Jaime Jaquez Jr. (2021 UCLA): 15.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.5 SPG, 45% 3-pt FG PCT Clayton Custer (2018 Loyola Chicago): 12.2 PPG, 3.2 APG, 56% FG PCT, 53% 3-pt FG PCT Cameron Krutwig (2018 Loyola Chicago): 10.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 58% FG PCT Dyshawn Pierre (2014 Dayton): 12.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.5 APG, 52% FG PCT, 56% 3-pt FG PCT Devin Oliver (2014 Dayton): 10.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 43% 3-pt FG PCT Jamie Skeen (2011 VCU): 17.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 55% 3-pt FG PCT Bradford Burgess (2011 VCU): 15.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 59% 3-pt FG PCT Momentum and getting hot at the right time always plays a factor in Cinderella runs during March Madness, which is why how a team performed in its conference tournament is so important. Of the six teams mentioned above, half of them won the conference championship and four of them at least made the title game. Furthermore, since 2005— there have 19 teams to be a double-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament, not play in a major conference (Power 5, Big East) and make the Sweet 16. Of those 19 teams, a whopping 13 of them won their conference championship and that number jumps to 16 when including teams that lost in the final (2006 George Mason, 2013 La Salle, 2014 Dayton lone teams to make Sweet 16 outside of this criteria). Conference tournaments serve as a strong indicator for tournament success in general, as no team ever has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title— along with 14 of the past 26 national champions having won their conference tournament. What KenPom says KenPom has been a widely used and respected source for college basketball analytics, using metrics to analyze a team's performance on the court. For example, 22 of the last 23 national champions have ranked in the top 21 of KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency (AOE) metric with 20 of those 23 also ranking in the top 31 of its adjusted defensive efficiency (ADE) metric (using pre-tournament KenPom data). All of the last 23 national champions ranked in the top 25 of KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin (AEM), which factors in both metrics along with other statistical categories. Since 2001, which is also as far back as KenPom pre-tournament data goes— there have been 25 teams to make the Sweet 16 as a double-digit seed while not playing in a major conference. We looked at the KenPom numbers for those 25 teams and calculated the average rank for the aforementioned efficiencies, along with adjusted tempo (AT)— also known as pace of play. Keep in mind that between 2001 and 2025, the number of teams in Division-I has hovered between 321 and 364. Adjusted offensive efficiency rank: 63.48 in Division-I Adjusted defensive efficiency rank: 79.76 in Division-I Adjusted efficiency margin rank: 55.08 in Division-I Adjusted tempo rank: 168.16 in Division-I Possible Cinderella's in this year's tournament So now that we've gone over several criteria that make up a Cinderella, we've identified a few possible candidates in this year's tournament that fit the bill or come close to. 10 New Mexico Record: 26-7 Duo: Donovan Dent (20.6 PPG, 6.4 APG), Nelly Junior Joseph (14.0 PG, 11.2 RPG) Conference tournament finish: lost to Boise State in semifinals of Mountain West Tournament KenPom ranks: ADE: 83rd, ADE: 20th, AEM: 43rd, AT: 4th Fact to know: Dent is the only player in Division-I averaging 20 PPG and 5 APG. 11 VCU Record: 28-6 Duo: Max Shulga (15.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.0 APG), Joe Bamisile (15.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG) Conference tournament finish: won Atlantic 10 Tournament KenPom ranks: AOE: 45th, ADE: 24th, AEM: 31st, AT: 244th Fact to know: VCU's head coach is Ryan Odom, who was the head coach of UMBC in 2018 when they became the first 16 seed to win a tournament game. 11 Drake Record: 30-3 Duo: Bennett Stirtz (19.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.7 APG), Daniel Abreau (10.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG) Conference tournament finish: won Missouri Valley Tournament KenPom ranks: AOE: 76th, ADE: 45th, AEM: 58th, AT: 364th Fact to know: despite losing Darian DeVries (two-time MVC Coach of the Year) and Tucker DeVries (two-time MVC Player of the Year) to West Virginia last year, Drake still went 30-3 under Ben McCollum— who won MVC Coach of the Year this season. Record: 25-9 Duo: Nique Clifford (19.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 4.4 APG), Jalen Lake (11.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG) Conference tournament finish: won Mountain West Tournament KenPom ranks: AOE: 46th, ADE: 51st, AEM: 44, AT: 251st Fact to know: Clifford is the only player in the tournament averaging 19 PPG, 9 RPG, 4 APG. Record: 27-6 Duo: Javohn Garcia (12.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG), Sincere Parker (12.1 PPG, 2.5 RPG) Conference tournament finish: won Southland Tournament KenPom ranks: AOE: 63rd, ADE: 66th, AEM: 59th, AT: 283rd Fact to know: McNeese won all of the individual Southland Conference awards— Will Wade (Coach of the Year), Garcia (Player of the Year), and Christian Shumate (Defensive Player of the Year). Record: 28-6 Duo: Taelon Peter (13.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG), Kaden Metheny (13.5 PPG, 2.9 RPG) Conference tournament finish: won Conference USA Tournament KenPom ranks: AOE: 77th, ADE: 48th, AEM: 60th, AT: 285th Fact to know: Liberty is sixth in Division-I in three-point percentage, shooting 39% from beyond the arc. 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Associated Press
11-03-2025
- Sport
- Associated Press
Saint Peter's Peacocks square off against the Iona Gaels in MAAC Tournament
Iona Gaels (10-20, 8-12 MAAC) vs. Saint Peter's Peacocks (11-18, 9-11 MAAC) BOTTOM LINE: Saint Peter's plays in the MAAC Tournament against Iona. The Peacocks have gone 9-11 against MAAC opponents, with a 2-7 record in non-conference play. Saint Peter's is 2-2 in games decided by 3 points or fewer. The Gaels' record in MAAC play is 8-12. Iona has a 5-9 record against opponents over .500. Saint Peter's is shooting 36.6% from the field this season, 6.2 percentage points lower than the 42.8% Iona allows to opponents. Iona averages 6.5 made 3-pointers per game this season, 0.7 fewer makes per game than Saint Peter's allows. The teams meet for the second time this season. Iona won 56-50 in the last matchup on Dec. 21. Ella Fajardo led Iona with 17 points, and Fatmata Janneh led Saint Peter's with 22 points. TOP PERFORMERS: Janneh is scoring 18.3 points per game with 11.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists for the Peacocks. Linda Amaning is averaging 8.3 points and 4.0 rebounds while shooting 63.2% over the last 10 games. Fajardo is scoring 9.9 points per game with 2.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists for the Gaels. Judith Gomez is averaging 10.8 points over the last 10 games. LAST 10 GAMES: Peacocks: 5-5, averaging 58.3 points, 28.6 rebounds, 15.0 assists, 6.4 steals and 2.2 blocks per game while shooting 39.0% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 59.0 points per game. Gaels: 2-8, averaging 54.4 points, 26.7 rebounds, 10.2 assists, 5.5 steals and 2.3 blocks per game while shooting 36.5% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 65.2 points. ___
USA Today
07-03-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Canisius at Saint Peter's odds, tips and betting trends
The Canisius Golden Griffins (3-27, 3-16 MAAC) will try to end a three-game losing streak when they visit the Saint Peter's Peacocks (11-16, 6-13 MAAC) at 2 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 8, 2025 at Yanitelli Center. The matchup airs on ESPN+. In the article below, we take a look at the Saint Peter's vs. Canisius odds and lines for this contest. The matchup between the Peacocks and the Golden Griffins currently does not have a line set. Saint Peter's is 13-13-0 against the spread, while Canisius' ATS record this season is 12-18-0. The Peacocks have gone over the point total in 13 games, while Golden Griffins games have gone over 16 times. Saint Peter's has a 5-5 record against the spread while going 4-6 overall over the past 10 contests. Canisius has gone 5-5 against the spread and 1-9 overall in its last 10 games. Ahead of this matchup, here is what you need to get ready for Saturday's college basketball action. Check out: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll Saint Peter's vs. Canisius prediction Saint Peter's 74, Canisius 63 Against the spread Saint Peter's has covered 13 times in 26 games with a spread this season. Canisius has compiled a 12-18-0 record against the spread this year. The Peacocks average 13.0 fewer points per game (65.9) than the Golden Griffins allow (78.9). Saint Peter's is 2-0 against the spread and 2-1 overall when scoring more than 78.9 points. When Canisius allows fewer than 65.9 points, it is 1-3 against the spread and 0-4 overall. The Golden Griffins score an average of 64.9 points per game, only 1.0 fewer point than the 65.9 the Peacocks allow. Canisius is 8-5 against the spread and 3-10 overall when it scores more than 65.9 points. Saint Peter's has an ATS record of 8-3 and an 8-4 record overall when its opponents score fewer than 64.9 points. Players to watch Saint Peter's Armoni Zeigler puts up 11.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists per contest, shooting 46.3% from the floor. Marcus Randolph paces his squad in both points (14.2) and assists (1.8) per contest, and also puts up 3.3 rebounds. Defensively, he puts up 0.9 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Mouhamed Sow leads the Peacocks at 6.5 rebounds per game, while also putting up 1.0 assists and 8.8 points. Canisius
