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Zawya
26-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
GCC ECM to see more issuances, but deal sizes may shrink amidst volatility: HSBC
In the aftermath of the global turmoil unleashed by the Trump tariffs last month, GCC ECM transactions will retain their momentum but with a possible shrinkage in size, according to Samer Deghaili, HSBC's Co-Head of Capital Markets & Advisory, MENAT. 'I am positive we will see more ECM issuance this year in terms of numbers [compared to 2024],' Deghaili told Zawya. He added that this would be particularly true from an IPO perspective, as there will be a higher number of offerings, albeit smaller, 'a trend that will continue into early 2026.' While the impact of the US tariffs has weighed heavily on global equity markets, the GCC remains relatively immune to the volatility, which has been apparent from recent deal flow activity, Deghaili said. 'DCM [debt capital market] issuance has been particularly strong, and the market kicked off this month with multiple transactions, many of which are in the billion-dollar-plus bracket. On the ECM side, we have three different situations in the market now.' Looking at the wider MENA region, LSEG data reveals that equity and equity-related issuances totalled $4.7 billion during the first quarter of 2025. HSBC led the MENA ECM underwriting league table with a 24% market share. IPOs accounted for 34% of the activity, with a total of 12 offerings in Q1 2025, raising a combined $1.6 billion. HSBC also acted as a bookrunner on ADNOC Gas' $2.8-billion secondary share sale in February, the proceeds of which contributed to follow-on offerings reaching a 17-year high of $3.1 billion. 'Whether in terms of capital deployment or weighting, investors remain extremely positive about the region. Those who have cash holdings are in many cases deploying them very soon, and underweight positions are, in many circumstances, moving to overweight,' he said. 'Our IPO pipeline remains extremely busy for the fourth quarter, and we haven't seen any deals delayed at our end. We have multiple mandated deals that we are working towards for Q4, and we are pressing ahead as planned.' One of the most anticipated IPOs in the UAE this year is the Etihad Airways listing, which may be announced towards the fourth quarter of 2025 and is speculated to be worth $1 billion. HSBC is one of the banks tapped for the offering, according to a Reuters report last March. Deghaili counts aviation as one of the sectors that will be in focus this year, along with technology, real estate, and energy. According to Deghaili, the region's ECM is expected to maintain strong liquidity, stemming from a growing interest in the GCC among foreign investors. 'Emerging market funds and hedge funds, many of which now have on-the-ground presence here, are topping up even further in the Middle East as they look to achieve their return targets. That could be a catalyst for new global funds as well to access the region,' he said. Strong M&A pipeline Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi in the UAE will take the lead in dealmaking in the region, Deghaili said. 'We see the current uncertainty as a catalyst for investment banking activity in Saudi Arabia, with deal flow and further consolidation locally on the M&A front,' he said. 'In the UAE, from an M&A perspective, we expect a strong year ahead. There are many deals in the pipeline which are coming to close later this year, and a lot of those evaluation numbers are going to be higher.' According to LSEG data, the value of announced M&A transactions with any MENA involvement reached $66.4 billion during the first three months of 2025, boosted by ADNOC and OMV's agreements to merge chemicals firms Borouge and Borealis and to acquire Canada's Nova Chemicals. The number of deals announced in the region increased 22% to 322 in the quarter, the highest level in three years. HSBC was involved in four deals during this period, valued at a total of $3.16 billion. (Reporting by Bindu Rai, editing by Seban Scaria)


Gulf News
06-05-2025
- Business
- Gulf News
Will Dubai Residential REIT's IPO be the next big draw for new investors to DFM?
Dubai: As the first Dubai IPO of 2025 gets rolling, more investors – and especially non-UAE ones – are ready to sign up to trade on the Dubai Financial Market (DFM). Dubai Holding is putting up its substantial residential portfolio through the REIT (real estate investment trust) IPO, it is a chance for newer investors – and for existing investors to keep cashing in. Because the Dubai Residential REIT IPO offers the best of both worlds: * Access to another of Dubai's bluest of blue-chip entities; and * Another chance for investors to ride the Dubai property market wave. (Even one that's showing signs of growth rates stabilizing at elevated levels.) 'Investors are getting a win-win with the latest pure-play real estate IPO,' said an analyst. 'In much the same way the previous such one – from Tecom Group – did.' According to Samer Deghaili, Co-head of Investment Banking for MENAT markets at HSBC, "IPOs have been enjoying strong, often record-breaking demand bringing in local, regional and international investors. "Structural developments, such as the introduction of stabilisation mechanisms and an increasing awareness from issuers of the dynamics between IPO valuations and aftermarket performance are key to continued success.' DFM keeps pulling in more Going by the sign ups during the first three months of 2025, a lot of them have already done so. In Q1-2025, there were 19,366 new investors, of whom a staggering 86% were foreign nationals. 'Over the past three years, Dubai has witnessed an influx of foreign investors from across the investment spectrum opening offices in the emirate,' says a new report issued by HSBC on Dubai's capital markets growth. Foreign investors, in fact, accounted for half of all trading on the DFM at the end of 2024. 'The number of total market investors registered on DFM has now surpassed 1.2 million,' says the HSBC report. 'Some 138,262 investors registered with the exchange in 2024 and more remarkably, 85% of these were foreign, demonstrating the appetite and focus Dubai has from the global investor community. This followed an inflow of 62,676 the previous year when 73% of registrants were foreign. 'In 2022, the equivalent number was 167,332.' To keep investors coming in for more, this is where offerings such as the Dubai Residential REIT's come in handy. Because as has been clear from the listings made since April 2022, starting with DEWA, Dubai Government backed privatization moves have clicked big-time with investors. 'We believe the combination of a healthy IPO pipeline with growth in secondary market offerings will help to continue enhancing DFM's liquidity,' said Nabeel AlBloushi, Head of Markets and Securities Services for the MENAT markets at HSBC. 'A strong share price performance in the months and years post-IPO opens the door for selling shareholders to monetise additional shares, boosting liquidity and free float.'