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Ya Libnan
a day ago
- Politics
- Ya Libnan
Israeli strikes gutted Iran's leadership. Will a regime change follow?
Rescuers work at the site of a damaged building, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Iranian Red Crescent Society/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS By Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi By Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi By Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi Israel has gutted Iran's nuclear and military leadership with airstrikes that leave a weakened Tehran with few options to retaliate, including an all-out war that it is neither equipped for nor likely to win, four regional officials said. The overnight strikes by Israel – repeated for second night on Friday – have ratcheted up the confrontation between the arch foes to an unprecedented level after years of war in the shadows, which burst into the open when Iran's ally Hamas attacked Israel in 2023. Regional security sources said it was unlikely that Tehran could respond with similarly effective strikes because its missile capabilities and military network in the region have been severely degraded by Israel since the Hamas attacks that triggered the Gaza war. State news agency IRNA said that Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel on Friday in retaliation. But the Israeli military said the missiles numbered fewer than 100 and most were intercepted or fell short. No casualties were immediately reported. The regional security sources said Iran's leaders, humiliated and increasingly preoccupied with their own survival, cannot afford to appear weak in the face of Israeli military pressure, raising the prospect of further escalation – including covert attacks on Israel or even the perilous option of seeking to build a nuclear bomb rapidly. 'They can't survive if they surrender,' said Mohanad Hage Ali at the Carnegie Middle East Center, a think tank in Beirut. 'They need to strike hard against Israel but their options are limited. I think their next option is withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.' Withdrawing from the NPT would be a serious escalation as it would signal Iran is accelerating its enrichment program to produce weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb, experts said. Iran's leadership has not confirmed whether it would attend a sixth round of deadlocked talks with the United States over its nuclear program scheduled for Sunday in Oman. Tehran's regional sway has been weakened by Israel's attacks on its proxies – from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq – as well as by the ousting of Iran's close ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Western sanctions have also hit Iran's crucial oil exports and the economy is reeling from a string of crises including a collapsing currency and rampant inflation, as well as energy and water shortages. 'They can't retaliate through anyone. The Israelis are dismantling the Iranian empire piece by piece, bit by bit … and now they've started sowing internal doubt about (the invincibility of) the regime,' said Sarkis Naoum, a regional expert. 'This is massive hit.' Israel strikes targeting key facilities in Tehran and other cities continued into the night on Friday. The Iranian foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was defiant on Friday, saying Israel had initiated a war and would suffer 'a bitter fate'. THE NUCLEAR OPTION Abdelaziz al-Sager, director of the Gulf Research Center think-tank, said Iran has been backed into a corner with limited options. One possibility would be to offer assurances – in private – that it will abandon uranium enrichment and dismantle its nuclear capabilities, since any public declaration of such a capitulation would likely provoke a fierce domestic backlash. He said another option could involve a return to clandestine warfare, reminiscent of the 1980s bombings targeting U.S. and Israeli embassies and military installations. A third, and far more perilous option, would be to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and accelerate its uranium enrichment program Such a move, al-Sager warned, would be tantamount to a declaration of war and would almost certainly provoke a strong international response – not only from Israel, but also from the United States and other Western powers. Trump has threatened military action to ensure Iran doesn't obtain an atomic weapon. He reiterated his position on Thursday, saying: 'Iran must completely give up hopes of obtaining a nuclear weapon.' Iran is currently enriching uranium up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% it would need for nuclear weapons. It has enough material at that level, if processed further, for nine nuclear bombs, according to a U.N. nuclear watchdog yardstick. Israel's strikes overnight on Thursday targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories, military commanders and nuclear scientists. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was the start of a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. At least 20 senior commanders were killed, two regional sources said. The armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Revolutionary Guards Chief Hossein Salami, head of the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force, Amir Ali Hajizadeh and Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani were among them. 'It's a big attack: big names, big leaders, big damage to the Iranian military leadership and its ballistic missiles. It's unprecedented,' said Carnegie's Hage Ali. Sima Shine, a former chief Mossad analyst and now a researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said Israel would probably not be able to take out Iran's nuclear project completely without U.S. help. 'Therefore, if the U.S. will not be part of the war, I assume that some parts of (Iran's) nuclear project will remain,' she told reporters on Friday. SHAKEN TO THE CORE Friday's strikes have not only inflicted strategic damage but have also shaken Iran's leadership to the core, according to a senior regional official close to the Iranian establishment. Defiance has transformed into concern and uncertainty within the ruling elite and, behind closed doors, anxiety is mounting, not just over the external threats but also their eroding grip on power at home, the official said. 'Panic has surged among the leadership,' the senior regional official said. 'Beyond the threat of further attacks, a deeper fear looms large: domestic unrest.' A moderate former Iranian official said the assassination in 2020 of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the overseas arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, on the orders of President Donald Trump, started the rot. Since then, the Islamic Republic has struggled to reassert its influence across the region and has never fully recovered. 'This attack might be the beginning of the end,' he said. If protests erupt, and the leadership responds with repression, it will only backfire, the former official said, noting that public anger has been simmering for years, fuelled by sanctions, inflation and an unrelenting crackdown on dissent. In his video address shortly after the attacks started, Netanyahu suggested he would like to see regime change in Iran and sent a message to Iranians. 'Our fight is not with you, our fight is with the brutal dictatorship that has oppressed you for 46 years. I believe the day of your liberation is near,' he said. The hope for regime change could explain why Israel went after so many senior military figures, throwing the Iranian security establishment into a state of confusion and chaos. 'These people were very vital, very knowledgeable, many years in their jobs, and they were a very important component of the stability of the regime, specifically the security stability of the regime,' said Shine. Iranian state media reported that at least two nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, were killed in Israeli strikes in Tehran. EMPIRE IN DECLINE Iran's most powerful proxy in the region, Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, is also in a weak position to respond. In the days leading up to the strikes on Iran, security sources close to Hezbollah told Reuters the group would not join any retaliatory action by Iran out of fear such a response could unleash a new Israeli blitz on Lebanon. Israel's war last year against Hezbollah left the group badly weakened, with its leadership decimated, thousands of its fighters killed and swathes of its strongholds in southern Lebanon and Beirut's suburbs destroyed. A direct war between Israel and Iran could swiftly expand to Gulf states whose airspace lies between the two enemies, and which host several U.S. military bases. Gulf monarchies allied with Washington issued internal directives to avoid any provocative statements following the attacks that might anger Iran, one official Gulf source told Reuters. Analysts said Trump could leverage the fallout from the Israeli strikes to bring Iran back to the nuclear negotiating table – but this time more isolated, and more likely to offer deeper concessions. 'One thing is clear: the Iranian empire is in decline,' said regional expert Naoum. 'Can they still set the terms of their decline? Not through military terms. There's only one way to do that: through negotiations.' Reuters
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Israeli strikes back Iran's leadership into a corner
By Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi DUBAI (Reuters) -Israel has gutted Iran's nuclear and military leadership in one blow, leaving Tehran with few options to retaliate including an all-out war that it is neither equipped for nor likely to win, four regional officials said. The widescale overnight strikes have ratcheted up the direct confrontation between the arch foes to an unprecedented level following years of war in the shadows that burst into the open when Iran's ally Hamas attacked Israel in 2023. Regional security sources said Tehran was unlikely to respond in kind because its missile capabilities and influence in the region outside Iran have been severely degraded by Israel since the Hamas attacks that triggered the Gaza war. But they said Iran's leaders, humiliated and increasingly preoccupied with their own survival, cannot afford to appear weak by caving to Israeli military pressure, raising the prospect of further escalation - including even the perilous option of seeking to rapidly build a nuclear bomb. "They can't survive if they surrender," said Mohanad Hage Ali at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. "They need to strike hard against Israel but their (military) options are limited. I think their next option is withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)." Withdrawing from the NPT would be a serious escalation as it would be signal Iran is accelerating its enrichment programme to produce weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb, experts said. Tehran's regional sway has been weakened by Israel's attacks on its proxies, from Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, as well as by the ousting of Iran's close ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Western sanctions have hit Iran's crucial oil exports and the economy is reeling from a string of crises including a collapsing currency, rampant inflation along with energy and water shortages. The Iranian leadership's initial response though was muted. They did not confirm whether they would attend the sixth round of deadlocked talks with the United States over its nuclear programme scheduled for Sunday in Oman. "They can't retaliate through anyone. The Israelis are dismantling the Iranian empire piece by piece, bit by bit ... and now they've started sowing internal doubt (about the invincibility) of the regime," said Sarkis Naoum, a regional expert. "This is massive hit." Israel strikes targeting key facilities in Tehran and other cities continued into the night on Friday. The Iranian foreign ministry did respond to requests for comment. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was defiant earlier on Friday, saying Israel had "unleashed its wicked and bloody" hand, and would suffer "a bitter fate". THE NUCLEAR OPTION Abdelaziz al-Sager, director of the Gulf Research Center think-tank, said Iran has been backed into a corner with limited options. One possibility would be to offer assurances - in private - that it will abandon uranium enrichment and dismantle its nuclear capabilities, since any public declaration of such a capitulation would likely provoke a fierce domestic backlash. He said another option could involve a return to clandestine warfare, reminiscent of the 1980s bombings targeting U.S. and Israeli embassies and military installations. A third, and far more perilous option, would be to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and accelerate its uranium enrichment programme. Such a move, al-Sager warned, would be tantamount to a declaration of war and would almost certainly provoke a strong international response - not only from Israel, but also from the United States and other Western powers. Trump has threatened military action to ensure Iran doesn't obtain an atomic weapon. He reiterated his position on Thursday, saying: "Iran must completely give up hopes of obtaining a nuclear weapon." Iran is currently enriching uranium up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% it would need for nuclear weapons. It has enough material at that level, if processed further, for nine nuclear bombs, according to a U.N. nuclear watchdog yardstick. Israel's strikes overnight on Friday targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories, military commanders and nuclear scientists. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was the start of a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. At least 20 senior commanders were killed, two regional sources said. The armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Revolutionary Guards Chief Hossein Salami, and the head of the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, were among them. "It's a big attack: big names, big leaders, big damage to the Iranian military leadership and its ballistic missiles. It's unprecedented," said Carnegie's Hage Ali. Sima Shine, a former chief Mossad analyst and now a researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said Israel would probably not be able to take out Iran's nuclear project completely without U.S. help. "Therefore, if the U.S. will not be part of the war, I assume that some parts of (Iran's) nuclear project will remain," she told reporters on Friday. SHAKEN TO THE CORE Friday's strikes have not only inflicted strategic damage but have also shaken Iran's leadership to the core, according to a senior regional official close to the Iranian establishment. Defiance has transformed into concern and uncertainty within the ruling elite and, behind closed doors, anxiety is mounting, not just over the external threats but also their eroding grip on power at home, the official said. "Panic has surged among the leadership," the senior regional official said. "Beyond the threat of further attacks, a deeper fear looms large: domestic unrest." A moderate former Iranian official said the assassination in 2020 of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the overseas arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, on the orders of President Donald Trump, started the rot. Since then, the Islamic Republic has struggled to reassert its influence across the region and has never fully recovered. "This attack might be the beginning of the end," he said. If protests erupt, and the leadership responds with repression, it will only backfire, the former official said, noting that public anger has been simmering for years, fuelled by sanctions, inflation and an unrelenting crackdown on dissent. In his video address shortly after the attacks started, Netanyahu suggested he would like to see regime change in Iran and sent a message to Iranians. "Our fight is not with you, our fight is with the brutal dictatorship that has oppressed you for 46 years. I believe the day of your liberation is near," he said. The hope for regime change could explain why Israel went after so many senior military figures, throwing the Iranian security establishment into a state of confusion and chaos. "These people that were very vital, very knowledgeable, many years in their jobs, and they were a very important component of the stability of the regime, specifically the security stability of the regime," said Shine. Iranian state media reported that at least two nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, were killed in Israeli strikes in Tehran. EMPIRE IN DECLINE Iran's most powerful proxy in the region, Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, is also in a weak position to respond. In the days leading up to the strikes on Iran, security sources close to Hezbollah told Reuters the group would not join any retaliatory action by Iran out of fear such a response could unleash a new Israeli blitz on Lebanon. Israel's war last year against Hezbollah left the group badly weakened, with its leadership decimated, thousands of its fighters killed and swathes of its strongholds in southern Lebanon and Beirut's suburbs destroyed. A direct war between Israel and Iran could swiftly expand to Gulf states whose airspace lies between the two enemies, and which host several U.S. military bases. Gulf monarchies allied with Washington issued internal directives to avoid any provocative statements following the attacks that might anger Iran, one official Gulf source told Reuters. Analysts said Trump could leverage the fallout from the Israeli strikes to bring Iran back to the nuclear negotiating table - but this time more isolated, and more likely to offer deeper concessions. "One thing is clear: the Iranian empire is in decline," said regional expert Naoum. "Can they still set the terms of their decline? Not through military terms. There's only one way to do that: through negotiations." (Reporting and writing by Samia Nakhoul in Dubai; Additional reporting by Parisa Hafezi and Maha el Dahan in Dubai, and Laila Bassam and Maya Gebeily in Beirut; Editing by David Clarke)
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Exclusive-Turkey wants no confrontation with Israel in Syria, foreign minister says
By Samia Nakhoul BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Turkey wants no confrontation with Israel in Syria after repeated Israeli attacks on military sites there undermined the new government's ability to deter threats, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Reuters on Friday. In an interview on the sidelines of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, Fidan said Israel's actions in Syria - where the administration of President Ahmed al-Sharaa is a close Turkish ally - were paving the way for future regional instability. If the new administration in Damascus wants to have "certain understandings" with Israel, which like Turkey is a neighbour of Syria, then that is their own business, he added. NATO member Turkey has fiercely criticised Israel over its attacks on Gaza since 2023, saying they amount to a genocide against the Palestinians, and has applied to join a case at the World Court against Israel while also halting all trade. Israel denies the genocide accusations. The animosity between the regional powers has spilled over into Syria, with Israeli forces striking Syria for weeks since a new administration took control in Damascus. Turkey has called the Israeli strikes an encroachment on Syrian territories, while Israel has said it would not allow any hostile forces in Syria. Asked about U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of military strikes against Iran, Fidan said diplomacy was needed to resolve the dispute and that Ankara did not want to see any attack taking place against its neighbour Iran.
Yahoo
26-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
'There is no blank check': Syrian leader told to rein in jihadis
By Samia Nakhoul and Timour Azhari DAMASCUS (Reuters) - Syria's President Ahmed al-Sharaa has a lot to prove to win over Western powers. If the first few week of his rule are anything to go by, he may be heading in the wrong direction. The West is watching Syria's leaders closely to ensure they rein in the Islamist jihadis who killed hundreds of Alawites, create an inclusive government with effective institutions, maintain order in a country fractured by years of civil war and prevent a resurgence of Islamic State or al Qaeda. To hammer home the message, three European envoys made clear in a March 11 meeting with Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani in Damascus that cracking down on the jihadi fighters was their top priority and that international support for the nascent administration could evaporate unless it took decisive action. The meeting has not previously been reported. "The abuses that have taken place in recent days are truly intolerable, and those responsible must be identified and condemned," said French Foreign Ministry spokesman Christophe Lemoine, when asked about the message delivered in Damascus. "There is no blank check for the new authorities." Reuters spoke to the three European envoys as well as four regional officials during a trip to Damascus. They all stressed that the authorities must get a grip on security across the country and prevent any repeat killings. "We asked for accountability. The punishment should go on those who committed the massacres. The security forces need to be cleaned up," said one European envoy, who was among the group of officials who delivered the message. Washington has also called on Syria's leaders to hold the perpetrators of the attacks to account. U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said they were monitoring the interim authority's actions to determine U.S. policy for Syria. The problem for Sharaa, however, is that his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group only comprises around 20,000 fighters, according to two assessments by Western governments. That makes him reliant on the tens of thousands of fighters from other groups — including the very hardline jihadist factions he is being asked to combat – and moving against them could plunge Syria back into war, five diplomats and three analysts said. Thousands of Sunni Muslim foreigners, from countries including China, Albania, Russia and Pakistan, joined Syria's rebels early in the civil war to fight against the rule of Bashar al-Assad and the Iran-backed Shi'ite militias who supported him, giving the conflict a sectarian overtone. One of the reasons Sharaa now depends on a relatively small force of some 20,000 fighters from several disparate groups, including the foreign jihadis, is because he dissolved the national army soon after taking power While the step was meant to draw a line under five decades of autocratic Assad family rule, diplomats and analysts said it echoed Washington's decision to disband the Iraqi army after the fall of Saddam Hussein - and could lead to similar chaos. Sharaa's move, along with mass dismissals of public sector workers, has deepened divisions in Syria and left hundreds of thousands without income, potentially pushing trained soldiers into insurgent groups or unemployment, worsening Syria's instability, according to five European and Arab officials. Neither Sharaa's office nor the Syrian foreign ministry responded to requests for comment for this story. STUCK IN A PARADOX In addition to the challenge of quelling sectarian violence, Sharaa must also contend with a host of foreign powers from the United States to Russia, Israel, Turkey and Iran - all turning Syria's territory into a geopolitical chessboard. Turkey holds the north, backing opposition forces while suppressing Kurdish ambitions. U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces control the east with its vital oil fields, while Israel capitalised on Assad's fall to bolster its military foothold. It now controls a 400-square-km demilitarised buffer zone, supports the Druze minority and is opposed to the Syrian leadership. In response to the massacres of civilians, Sharaa has established an investigation committee and promised to punish those responsible, even those close to him. But any action against the jihadis who carried out the killings could ignite factional infighting, purges and power struggles - leaving the new government stuck in a paradox, the diplomats and analysts said. "Obviously Sharaa doesn't control the foreign jihadis and does not call all the shots," said Marwan Muasher, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "What is clear is that the massacres were carried out by people who are Salafi jihadists, and are not listening to what he's saying." While diplomats recognise that the inquiry is a step in the right direction, they said its credibility would have been far stronger with U.N. and international observers. Ultimately, they said, the true test of Sharaa's leadership lies not just in the commission's findings but in how he deals with the fighters responsible for the atrocities. The massacres were, however, a stark reminder of the forces at play in post-Assad Syria, signalling a brutal reality that toppling a dictator is the beginning of a larger, more perilous battle to shape the country's future. Abdulaziz Sager, founder of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, said the presence of "rogue groups" - the foreign jihadis - operating outside the law would lead to a collapse in security and undermine the state's authority. "Therefore, the new leadership has no choice but to take firm action against such violations," he said. An Arab diplomat said political support from Arab states was also not unlimited, and would need to be matched by concrete steps, including inclusive governance, protection of minorities and real progress on the ground. That means genuine power-sharing with Alawites, Christians, Kurds and other minorities - and only then can the new leadership stabilise Syria and garner U.S. and European support, the Arab diplomat said. Washington and European states have tied the lifting of sanctions, imposed under Assad, to the new authorities proving their commitment to inclusive governance and the protection of minorities. Removing these sanctions is crucial to reviving Syria's shattered economy, Sharaa's most pressing challenge. SAME PLAYBOOK? But despite promises of reform, the five-year constitution Sharaa unveiled this month gave him absolute power as president, prime minister, head of the armed forces and chief of national security, as well as granting him the authority to appoint judges, ministers and a third of parliament - dashing hopes for democratic reforms. The constitution also enshrines Islamic law as "the main source" of legislation. Critics argue that the constitution swaps autocracy for Islamist theocracy, deepening fears over Sharaa's roots as the leader of a hardline Islamist faction once allied with al Qaeda. Kurds, who control northeastern Syria and recently agreed to integrate with the new government, criticised the temporary constitution for "reproducing authoritarianism in a new form". Syria's dilemma, analysts say, mirrors the trials faced by Arab states a decade ago when, in 2011, a wave of uprisings ousted dictators in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen. The "Arab Spring" upheavals promised democratic revival, but takeovers by Islamists, military coups, and violent fragmentation turned these hopes into setbacks. The victories were short-lived, with states such as Yemen and Libya descending into violence and chaos. Syria, having endured a far longer and bloodier conflict, now stands at a similar crossroad. Analysts say if Syria's rulers adopt exclusionary policies that ignore the cultural, religious, ethnic diversity of its citizens, they are bound to fail - just as late Islamist President Mohammed Mursi did in Egypt after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak. In Mursi's case, his divisive constitution failed to meet the people's diverse demands and led to his toppling by the army. Such a policy in Syria, the analysts add, would fuel domestic resistance, antagonise neighbours, and prompt foreign intervention. "Some internal and external forces wanted a secular state, while the constitutional declaration reaffirmed the state's religious-Islamic identity, stating that Islamic law (Sharia) would be the primary source of legislation," said Sager. "A possible compromise could have been a model similar to Turkey's - a secular state governed by an Islamic party." Muasher at the Carnegie Endowment said Assad's fall should serve as a warning to those who replaced him in Syria. He said Sharaa must decide whether to adopt the same playbook that made Assad vulnerable and led to the mass Sunni uprising that eventually ousted him - or adopt a different course. "Syria's new rulers must recognise that the brutal authoritarian model of the regime they replaced was ultimately unsustainable, as is any political system based on exclusion and iron-fisted rule," Muasher said. "If they fall back on repression, they will subject Syria to a grim fate."
Yahoo
13-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Exclusive-Russia lambasts Syria's new leaders in closed UN meeting, sources say
By Samia Nakhoul and Maya Gebeily DAMASCUS (Reuters) - Russia castigated Syria's new leaders in a closed United Nations briefing this week, two sources briefed on the meeting told Reuters, warning against the rise of jihadists in Syria and comparing sectarian killings of Alawites to Rwanda's genocide. Moscow's private criticism of Syria's Islamist rulers comes despite Russian efforts to retain two key military bases in coastal Syria - the same region where hundreds of people from the Alawite minority were killed last week. See for yourself — The Yodel is the go-to source for daily news, entertainment and feel-good stories. By signing up, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy. The violence was triggered on March 6 by an attack on new government security forces blamed on ex-army figures loyal to ousted leader Bashar al-Assad, who is Alawite. That attack unleashed widespread killings of Alawites across several provinces by groups accused of links to the new government. The Kremlin, which backed Assad before he was toppled and fled to Russia in December, called on Tuesday for Syria to remain united and said it was in contact with other countries on the issue. But its comments in the closed Security Council briefing on Monday, which it called for jointly with the United States, were much more scathing, shedding light on Moscow's strategy as it tries to reassert influence over Syria's course. They have not been previously reported. Two sources briefed on the meeting said Moscow's envoy Vassily Nebenzia compared the sectarian and ethnic killing to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, when Tutsis and moderate Hutus were systematically massacred by Hutu extremists, led by the Rwandan army and a militia known as the Interahamwe. The sources cited Nebenzia as telling those gathered "no one" had stopped the killing in Syria. When asked whether he likened the violence in Syria to Rwanda's genocide, Nebenzia told Reuters: "I say what I want in the closed consultations, based on the premise that it is closed consultations and nothing comes out." Asked why Russia would be more critical in private than public statements, Anna Borshchevskaya, a Russia expert at the Washington Institute, said Moscow was hedging its bets. "They want to restore their influence in Syria and they're looking for a way in. If they start to criticize the government publicly, that doesn't get them anywhere," Borshchevskaya said. "Russia also wants to be seen as a great power, equal to the U.S. and resolving crises together with the U.S. So working privately with the U.S. in this case gives them added benefits," she said. 'IRAQ SCENARIO' The sources said Nebenzia criticised the new Islamist rulers' dissolution of Syria's army and massive cutting of the public workforce, warning that "the Iraq scenario" could play out again - a reference to the years of sectarian violence that followed the toppling of Saddam Hussein and dismantling of Iraq's state institutions. After ousting Assad in an offensive spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al Qaeda affiliate, Syria's new Islamist rulers installed some foreign fighters within a new military infrastructure. Critics saw its public sector layoffs as aimed at excluding of Alawite workers and a national dialogue last month as insufficiently inclusive. Syria's interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa told Reuters in an interview this week that his administration did not want to distribute positions according to sect and that a broadened government set to be announced this week could include Alawites. He said he did not want to see "a rift between Syria and Russia," and that Damascus wanted to preserve its "deep strategic relations" with Moscow. At the closed briefing, Russia said the new rulers' moves created a "corrupt foundation" for the transition away from decades of Assad rule and worried that foreign "terrorist" fighters were playing a "destructive role," the sources said. Witness accounts from the mass killings in Syria's coast referred to non-Arabic speakers, indicating foreign fighters may have taken part in the violence. The envoys of the United States, France and China also all stressed their worries over the presence of foreign fighters in Syria and the state of the country's political transition in the closed briefing. The 15-member Security Council is currently negotiating a statement that would condemn the violence, express concern over the impact on escalating tensions among Syria's communities and call on the interim authorities to protect all Syrians regardless of ethnicity or religion. Such statements are agreed by consensus. Nebenzia told Reuters he hoped the Security Council would agree a statement on the situation soon. The international community has conditioned much of its re-engagement with Syria on the way the transition proceeds, including how inclusive it is of Syria's diverse religious and ethnic communities.
