Latest news with #SandipRaichura
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
ETMarkets Smart Talk - Auto, QSR, and defence among top picks in current market cycle: PL Capital's Sandip Raichura
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Sandip Raichura, Executive Director and CEO – Retail and Distribution at PL Capital Group, shares his market outlook amidst global uncertainties and domestic the broader indices may face near-term pressure, Raichura believes momentum in Indian equities remains intact, driven by a combination of structural and cyclical factors. In an insightful conversation, he outlines why Auto, QSR (Quick Service Restaurants), and Defence sectors are emerging as strong investment themes in the current market cycle, and how investors—both retail and HNIs—can position their portfolios for the long haul. Edited Excerpts - ADVERTISEMENT Q) Thanks for taking the time out. The month of May started on a volatile note with benchmark indices witnessing wild swings on either side. How are you reading into markets?A) We had earlier forecast a recovery from 22k levels to 25k levels currently. We now expect the indices to face some near-term downward pressure as a lot of global developments are keeping markets on tenterhooks. However, a good and timely monsoon coupled which could spur rural demand, tax breaks for the middle classes in the Union Budget and globally, positive developments on tariff wars could keep the markets positively biased. We expect Nifty to have reached its fair value around current levels, but momentum could carry these higher especially if the US dollar corrects from 99 levels towards 92 or so. Any rate cuts by RBI beyond expectations could of course have a much stronger positive impact Q) What is the sense you are making from the March quarter results? Are downgrades more than upgrades this time around? A) While the overall earnings season has shown resilience in certain sectors, the prevalence of downgrades suggests caution among investors. ADVERTISEMENT March 2025 Quarter has presented a mixed picture, with a notable trend of earnings downgrades surpassing upgrades. The Earnings upgrade-to-downgrade ratio stood at 0.3x, the lowest since Q1FY21. Q) We have seen IndusInd bank results, and more skeletons could come out of the closet in near future. What should investors do who are invested in these type of companies with corporate governance issues? ADVERTISEMENT A) Our sense is that most of the lapses have been corrected, and no significant deviations are expected. For FY26/27E we trim loan growth by 5%/2% to 8%/11% and subsequently due to cascading effect cut NII by 15%/13%.This would result in an earnings cut of 31%/26% and ABV reduction of avg. 8.6%. RBI has requested proposals for new CEO appointment by 30th Jun'25; near to medium term performance would hinge on the pedigree of the prospective CEO and the respective strategy to improve governance, credibility and fundamentals. ADVERTISEMENT Stock is trading at 0.8x on Mar'27 ABV; we maintain multiple at 0.9x but cut TP to Rs780 from Rs860. Retain HOLD. Q) What is the long-term outlook for Indian equities over the next few years?A) Markets seem to have digested the uncertainty related to global tariff wars on hopes of lesser disruption and trade agreements by major an end to global turmoil is not in sight as Chinese growth is slowing down, US interest rates are holding steady and interest rates in Japan are moving up. ADVERTISEMENT Overall, the scenario is ripe for another 50bps rate cut by RBI over the next 6 months, however the declining rate differential with US and other large economies is a key factor to watch out for. Q) Which sectors are expected to deliver strong returns going forward? Any safe bets which investors can consider? A) We expect benefits for Auto, Hotels, Airlines, Durables/ electronics, QSR, Apparel, Footwear, Building Material, Household Goods, Paints and addition, Capital Goods, Defence, Hospitals, Pharma, EMS, Travel and Telecom continue to have positive added Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Rainbow Children's Medicare and Hindustan Aeronautics in conviction picks. Q) How can high-net-worth individuals effectively build wealth in the current market environment? A) We believe larger investors should have a slightly large cap biased portfolio – from the NSE 100 index typically, apart from some exposure to quality stocks like Hinduja Finance, NSE etc in the unlisted are not very confident that the evolving situation is ideal for weak balance sheets or internationally exposed companies and for that reason, we recommend staying invested in well-known also believe longer tenor bond funds could be looked at as we possibly are headed towards a decline in long duration interest rates especially if GDP growth doesn't pick up speed and inflation remain under conservative investors may want to look at dynamic bond funds and gold in their portfolios from a 2-year perspective Q) What is your take on Gold? Recently, it crossed Rs 1 lakh in the physical market. Right time to increase allocation or investors should wait for some cool off? A) Gold is on a structural bull run and continuous buying by central banks right from USD 2200 levels continues believe that we are in for major changes in the way the world trades with each other and of course, the Ukraine Russia conflict will keep gold buoyant as well. Declines in USD may also support positive moves. We believe gold has to be at least 5% of client portfolios even at current levels. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
ETMarkets Smart Talk - Auto, QSR, and defence among top picks in current market cycle: PL Capital's Sandip Raichura
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Sandip Raichura, Executive Director and CEO – Retail and Distribution at PL Capital Group, shares his market outlook amidst global uncertainties and domestic the broader indices may face near-term pressure, Raichura believes momentum in Indian equities remains intact, driven by a combination of structural and cyclical an insightful conversation, he outlines why Auto, QSR (Quick Service Restaurants), and Defence sectors are emerging as strong investment themes in the current market cycle, and how investors—both retail and HNIs—can position their portfolios for the long haul. Edited Excerpts -A) We had earlier forecast a recovery from 22k levels to 25k levels currently. We now expect the indices to face some near-term downward pressure as a lot of global developments are keeping markets on a good and timely monsoon coupled which could spur rural demand, tax breaks for the middle classes in the Union Budget and globally, positive developments on tariff wars could keep the markets positively expect Nifty to have reached its fair value around current levels, but momentum could carry these higher especially if the US dollar corrects from 99 levels towards 92 or so. Any rate cuts by RBI beyond expectations could of course have a much stronger positive impactA) While the overall earnings season has shown resilience in certain sectors, the prevalence of downgrades suggests caution among 2025 Quarter has presented a mixed picture, with a notable trend of earnings downgrades surpassing upgrades. The Earnings upgrade-to-downgrade ratio stood at 0.3x, the lowest since Q1FY21.A) Our sense is that most of the lapses have been corrected, and no significant deviations are expected. For FY26/27E we trim loan growth by 5%/2% to 8%/11% and subsequently due to cascading effect cut NII by 15%/13%.This would result in an earnings cut of 31%/26% and ABV reduction of avg. 8.6%. RBI has requested proposals for new CEO appointment by 30th Jun'25; near to medium term performance would hinge on the pedigree of the prospective CEO and the respective strategy to improve governance, credibility and is trading at 0.8x on Mar'27 ABV; we maintain multiple at 0.9x but cut TP to Rs780 from Rs860. Retain HOLD.A) Markets seem to have digested the uncertainty related to global tariff wars on hopes of lesser disruption and trade agreements by major an end to global turmoil is not in sight as Chinese growth is slowing down, US interest rates are holding steady and interest rates in Japan are moving the scenario is ripe for another 50bps rate cut by RBI over the next 6 months, however the declining rate differential with US and other large economies is a key factor to watch out for.A) We expect benefits for Auto, Hotels, Airlines, Durables/ electronics, QSR, Apparel, Footwear, Building Material, Household Goods, Paints and addition, Capital Goods, Defence, Hospitals, Pharma, EMS, Travel and Telecom continue to have positive added Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Rainbow Children's Medicare and Hindustan Aeronautics in conviction picks.A) We believe larger investors should have a slightly large cap biased portfolio – from the NSE 100 index typically, apart from some exposure to quality stocks like Hinduja Finance, NSE etc in the unlisted are not very confident that the evolving situation is ideal for weak balance sheets or internationally exposed companies and for that reason, we recommend staying invested in well-known also believe longer tenor bond funds could be looked at as we possibly are headed towards a decline in long duration interest rates especially if GDP growth doesn't pick up speed and inflation remain under conservative investors may want to look at dynamic bond funds and gold in their portfolios from a 2-year perspectiveA) Gold is on a structural bull run and continuous buying by central banks right from USD 2200 levels continues believe that we are in for major changes in the way the world trades with each other and of course, the Ukraine Russia conflict will keep gold buoyant as in USD may also support positive moves. We believe gold has to be at least 5% of client portfolios even at current levels.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
24-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold rush meets stock market bull run! Rare double boom squashing your portfolio plan?
In a market twist that has both gold bugs and equity bulls grinning, and asset allocators sweating, India is witnessing a rare phenomenon: a simultaneous surge in gold and stock markets that's smashing conventional wisdom and confusing the smartest of portfolios. The Sensex and Nifty have rocketed over 8% in just seven trading sessions. Gold? It's in a league of its own—up a jaw-dropping 27% in 2025, vaulting past Rs 1 lakh per 10 gram in India and $3500 per ounce-mark in London's bullion market. If your asset allocation plan has gone for a toss, you're not alone. This unusual harmony between typically divergent assets has stunned even the street's veterans. The trigger? A weakening US dollar, escalating trade tensions, central banks hoarding bullion like it's the cornerstone of financial stability, and a global rush to hedge against uncertainty. The result: the traditional inverse correlation between equities and gold has melted faster than summer ice cream in Mumbai's Dalal Street. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Ifo read | Bullion Breakout? Analysts weigh in on gold investment strategy ahead 'Gold has gained substantially—more than 30% this year—and any such rallies are likely to face intermittent corrections,' said Prabhudas Lilladher's Sandip Raichura. 'Structurally, gold may continue to be on a bull run as governments and investors diversify away from US treasuries. Much higher levels in the next 12 months are likely.' Live Events But while portfolios are swelling, allocation strategies are imploding. Social media is ablaze with memes of housewives-turned-gold-tycoons outsmarting professional investors. Even veteran banker Uday Kotak tipped his hat, declaring on X that 'the Indian housewife is the smartest fund manager in the world.' So what's an investor to do when everything is rising? 'Investors should continue to focus on long-term asset allocation,' advises Siddharth Srivastava, ETF head at Mirae Asset. 'Invest in both gold and equities—but in a staggered manner. Avoid chasing short-term highs.' Also read | Experts suggest investors to accumulate precious metal, but follow asset allocation Srivastava warns that while the macro tailwinds supporting gold like geopolitical tensions, weak dollar and central bank buying remain intact, some profit booking is prudent. 'Gold has already shown a strong one-way rally. Consolidation or a price correction may happen.' Retail flows reflect this gold fever: 'Commodity ETFs have seen inflows of around ₹24,000 crore in the last year—₹13,500 crore in just the past 6 months,' Srivastava said, adding that the total AUM of commodity ETFs has crossed ₹74,000 crore as of March-end. Still, many are grappling with that nagging feeling: Is now too late to board the gold train? 'If you've missed the rally and are now tempted to invest at these elevated levels, avoid lump-sum entries. Instead, go for SIPs in gold ETFs. This approach helps average out your purchase price and reduces the impact of short-term volatility. Also, be cautious about over-allocating—keep gold exposure capped at 10% of your portfolio, unless you have a specific reason like hedging geopolitical risk,' says Om Ghawalkar, market analyst at And if you are the lucky one sitting on huge profits, then analysts suggest you should consider trimming holdings if it's grown beyond 20-25% of the portfolio. 'Now could be a good time to book partial profits—especially if gold holdings have grown beyond 20-25% of your overall portfolio. Consider trimming some of your gold investments to lock in gains while still maintaining a reasonable exposure,' Ghawalkar said. He also notes that the equity euphoria isn't baseless. 'The Nifty's surge is backed by strong Q4 earnings, especially in banking and autos, along with robust FPI flows and sectoral strength in capital goods, defense, and renewables.' The message from the pros? Discipline trumps FOMO. Three golden rules to survive this rare double rally: Trim the excess – If gold's share in your portfolio has ballooned, it's time to shave it. SIP your way in – For both gold and equities, stagger your entries to manage risk. Stay diversified – Don't chase returns; balance is still your best hedge. Because in a world where stocks and gold move in unison, your only real asset is a cool head and a clear plan. And maybe... an Indian housewife's instinct. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
