Latest news with #SanjayRaja
The Guardian
2 days ago
- Business
- The Guardian
UK GDP report to show if economy kept growing in April
Update: Date: 2025-06-12T05:35:44.000Z Title: Introduction: UK GDP report coming up Content: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy. We're about to learn how the UK economy fared during 'Awful April'. The latest GDP report, due at 7am BST, will show whether or not the UK managed to keep growing during a month dominated by Donald Trump's trade war, which also brought a jump in bills for consumers, and the rise in employer national insurance contributions. Economists predict a slowdown – indeed, the consensus forecast among City number crunchers is that GDP fell by 0.1% in April. That would be a disappointment, after the UK economy made a decent start to 2025, growing by 0.7% in the first quarter of the year. Deutsche Bank predict the economy stagnated in April, with their chief UK economy Sanjay Raja explaining: By all accounts there are likely to be some volatile swings – particularly when it comes to manufacturing. Some negative pay-back in the services sector too, we think, is very possible. The good news? Better weather will have likely helped output in general, especially within consumer-facing services. So far this year, the UK economy was flat in January, then grew by 0.5% in February, and by 0.2% in March. Investors will also be digesting yesterday's UK spending review, in which chancellor Rachel Reeves outlined billions of pounds of infrastructure spending. Health and defence were the priority, but other areas will face a tough squeeze on funding. 7am BST: UK GDP report for April 7am BST: UK trade balance for April 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless claims report 1.30pm BST: US PPI index of producer prices for May
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Pound dips following weak UK jobs report
The pound dipped more than 0.4% against the dollar on Tuesday after a jobs report that showed a cooling UK labour market. Sterling was just below the $1.35 mark, having sustained a rally in recent weeks as US president Donald Trump's tariff policy rocked markets and the dollar. The UK labour market continued to cool in April, with the latest ONS figures showing unemployment at 4.6% and a 0.2% drop in payrolled employees — or 55,000 fewer jobs — from the previous month. It marks the first time the unemployment rate has crept above pre-pandemic levels. The data helps pave the way for the Bank of England to make further interest rate cuts, according to some analysts. The downturn in the employment market and a deceleration in wage growth has the potential to take the heat out of inflation in the rest of the economy, making it easier for the central bank to maintain its trajectory of lowering borrowing costs. Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks gain as US-China trade talks resume in London "The trend in payrolls has been clear for some time now — even if the many have dismissed this," Sanjay Raja, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note. "The May payroll data may just be the peak in a long trending run of weaker labour market trends." The dollar index ( meanwhile rallied 0.2% as trade talks between US and Chinese diplomats continue for a second day in London. The pair are hoping to iron out terms on export controls for rare earths and other goods. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said that the US was likely to agree to lift export controls on some semiconductors in return for China speeding up the delivery of rare earths, according to a Reuters report on Monday. Sterling also fell 0.4% against the euro, trading just above the 1.18 mark. Gold prices lacked direction on Tuesday, as the world watches for movement in US-China trade talks. "[A] modest drop follows its safe-haven rally in response to Trump's incensed characterisation of the economy as 'a house of cards,' coupled with new protectionism on the trade front," said Aaron Hill, chief market analyst at FP Markets. "Expectations of favourable trade talks ahead between the US and China, and hopes for relief from tariffs, have cooled bullion's gains. Read more: Stocks: Create your watchlist and portfolio "We believe this pullback is more of a rebalancing of positions in response to conflicting macro signals rather than trend reversal." Gold futures were 0.2% lower to trade around the $3,349 mark, while gold's spot price was up 0.1%, around the $3,326.80 mark. Oil prices moved higher for a second session on Tuesday morning, maintaining multi-week highs on hopes of a breakthrough in US-China trade talks. Brent crude gained 0.2%, to trade at around $66.37. West Texas Intermediate was also up 0.2%, hitting $65.41 a barrel. The moves partially retrace Monday's losses amid concerns around supply and the state of geopolitics. The end of last week saw a rally for the viscose commodity, as US non-farm payroll data came in hotter than expected. Read more: UK jobs data increase chances of more Bank of England interest rate cuts This week investors are eyeing OPEC+ output decisions as well as ongoing trade discussions between the US and China. OPEC+ production hikes are yet to translate into actual output gains, analysts at Morgan Stanley said. In broader market movements, the UK's FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was 0.5% higher on Tuesday morning. For more details, on broader market movements check our live coverage in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Pound dips following weak UK jobs report
The pound dipped more than 0.4% against the dollar on Tuesday after a jobs report that showed a cooling UK labour market. Sterling was just below the $1.35 mark, having sustained a rally in recent weeks as US president Donald Trump's tariff policy rocked markets and the dollar. The UK labour market continued to cool in April, with the latest ONS figures showing unemployment at 4.6% and a 0.2% drop in payrolled employees — or 55,000 fewer jobs — from the previous month. It marks the first time the unemployment rate has crept above pre-pandemic levels. The data helps pave the way for the Bank of England to make further interest rate cuts, according to some analysts. The downturn in the employment market and a deceleration in wage growth has the potential to take the heat out of inflation in the rest of the economy, making it easier for the central bank to maintain its trajectory of lowering borrowing costs. Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks gain as US-China trade talks resume in London "The trend in payrolls has been clear for some time now — even if the many have dismissed this," Sanjay Raja, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note. "The May payroll data may just be the peak in a long trending run of weaker labour market trends." The dollar index ( meanwhile rallied 0.2% as trade talks between US and Chinese diplomats continue for a second day in London. The pair are hoping to iron out terms on export controls for rare earths and other goods. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said that the US was likely to agree to lift export controls on some semiconductors in return for China speeding up the delivery of rare earths, according to a Reuters report on Monday. Sterling also fell 0.4% against the euro, trading just above the 1.18 mark. Gold prices lacked direction on Tuesday, as the world watches for movement in US-China trade talks. "[A] modest drop follows its safe-haven rally in response to Trump's incensed characterisation of the economy as 'a house of cards,' coupled with new protectionism on the trade front," said Aaron Hill, chief market analyst at FP Markets. "Expectations of favourable trade talks ahead between the US and China, and hopes for relief from tariffs, have cooled bullion's gains. Read more: Stocks: Create your watchlist and portfolio "We believe this pullback is more of a rebalancing of positions in response to conflicting macro signals rather than trend reversal." Gold futures were 0.2% lower to trade around the $3,349 mark, while gold's spot price was up 0.1%, around the $3,326.80 mark. Oil prices moved higher for a second session on Tuesday morning, maintaining multi-week highs on hopes of a breakthrough in US-China trade talks. Brent crude gained 0.2%, to trade at around $66.37. West Texas Intermediate was also up 0.2%, hitting $65.41 a barrel. The moves partially retrace Monday's losses amid concerns around supply and the state of geopolitics. The end of last week saw a rally for the viscose commodity, as US non-farm payroll data came in hotter than expected. Read more: UK jobs data increase chances of more Bank of England interest rate cuts This week investors are eyeing OPEC+ output decisions as well as ongoing trade discussions between the US and China. OPEC+ production hikes are yet to translate into actual output gains, analysts at Morgan Stanley said. In broader market movements, the UK's FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was 0.5% higher on Tuesday morning. For more details, on broader market movements check our live coverage in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Pound dips following weak UK jobs report
The pound dipped more than 0.4% against the dollar on Tuesday, waning following a jobs report that showed a cooling UK labour market. Sterling was just below the $1.35 mark, having sustained a rally in recent weeks as US president Donald Trump's tariff policy rocked markets and the dollar. The UK labour market continued to cool in April, with the latest ONS figures showing unemployment at 4.6% and a 0.2% drop in payrolled employees — or 55,000 fewer jobs — from the previous month. It marks the first time the unemployment rate has crept above pre-pandemic levels. The data helps pave the way for the Bank of England to make further interest rate cuts, according to some analysts. The downturn in the employment market and a deceleration in wage growth has the potential to take the heat out of inflation in the rest of the economy, making it easier for the central bank to maintain its trajectory of lowering borrowing costs. Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks gain as US-China trade talks resume in London The trend in payrolls has been clear for some time now — even if the many have dismissed this," Sanjay Raja, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note. "The May payroll data may just be the peak in a long trending run of weaker labour market trends." The dollar index ( meanwhile rallied 0.2% as trade talks between US and Chinese diplomats continue for a second day in London. The pair are hoping to iron out terms on export controls for rare earths and other goods. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said that the US was likely to agree to lift export controls on some semiconductors in return for China speeding up the delivery of rare earths, according to a Reuters report on Monday. Sterling also fell 0.4% against the euro, trading just above the 1.18 mark. Gold prices lacked direction on Tuesday, as the world watches for movement in US-China trade talks. "This modest drop follows its safe-haven rally in response to Trump's incensed characterisation of the economy as 'a house of cards,' coupled with new protectionism on the trade front," said Aaron Hill, chief market analyst at FP Markets. "Expectations of favourable trade talks ahead between the US and China, and hopes for relief from tariffs, have cooled bullion's gains." Read more: Stocks: Create your watchlist and portfolio We believe this pullback is more of a rebalancing of positions in response to conflicting macro signals rather than trend reversal." Gold futures were 0.2% lower, to trade around the $3,349 mark, while gold's spot price was up 0.1%, around the $3,326.80 mark. Oil prices moved higher for a second session on Tuesday morning, maintaining multi-week highs on hopes of a breakthrough in US-China trade talks. Brent crude gained 0.2%, to trade at around $66.37. West Texas Intermediate was also up 0.2%, hitting $65.41 a barrel. The moves partially retrace Monday's losses amid concerns around supply and the state of geopolitics. The end of last week saw a rally for the viscose commodity, as US non-farm payroll data came in hotter than expected. Read more: UK jobs data increase chances of more Bank of England interest rate cuts This week investors are eyeing OPEC+ output decisions as well as ongoing trade discussions between the US and China. OPEC+ production hikes are yet to translate into actual output gains, analysts at Morgan Stanley said. In broader market movements, the UK's FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was 0.5% higher on Tuesday morning. For more details, on broader market movements check our live coverage in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
More interest rate cuts in doubt after surprise inflation surge
Traders are scaling back bets on interest rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE) this year after a stronger-than-expected inflation reading cast doubt over the central bank's ability to ease borrowing costs further. Markets are now pricing in just one additional quarter-point cut in 2025, reflecting growing concern that the pace of price rises may prove more persistent than previously thought. According to money markets, the probability of a rate reduction in August has slipped to 50%, down from 60% prior to the latest inflation figures. Read more: UK inflation rises to 3.5% in April as household bills surged The pound climbed to its highest level since February 2022 following the data. Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said: 'This will almost certainly be the death knell for a June rate cut, however. While August still seems likely in our view, it certainly has become a lot more interesting and balanced.' The repricing comes amid increasingly hawkish rhetoric from senior BoE officials. On Tuesday, Huw Pill, the Bank's chief economist, warned that markets might have moved too quickly in pricing in rate reductions. Pill, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), had opposed the BoE's decision earlier this month to cut rates from 4.5% to 4.25%. Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at Aberdeen, said the overall outlook remained cautious: 'We think a quarterly profile of rate cuts remains appropriate, but the chance of the easing cycle speeding up any time soon has fallen.' April's consumer price index reading showed inflation rising to 3.5% — the highest level since early 2024 — matching what the BoE had forecast for the July–September 2025 period. 'This is telling us how bad today's inflation reading is,' said Costas Milos, professor of finance at the University of Liverpool. 'The problem is that the big increase in inflation will create a momentum in inflation which will be fuelled further by Trump's tariff wars. In my view, this very momentum in inflation might push inflation to as high as 4%, that is, way above the Bank of England's forecast.' He added: 'The majority of MPC members will most likely vote to keep interest rates at 4.25% in June. That said, I would not be surprised if a vote is cast in favour of a slight increase in interest rates to 4.5%." JPMorgan economist Allan Monks shared the same concerns, adding that wage growth remains elevated. 'Combined with the BoE's recent hawkish rhetoric — including Huw Pill's comments yesterday, but more specifically the three or four hawks in the centre-ground identified in the March minutes — this CPI release likely closes the door to a June cut and increases the risk that the BoE will pause in August,' he said. 'We maintain our August call for now, with plenty of data still to come. We expect the BoE will still be surprised to the downside on GDP and wage growth.' Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks muted as UK inflation surges to highest in over a year Andrew Wishart, senior UK economist at Berenberg, said strong underlying inflation in services and persistent wage growth made further rate cuts less likely. 'With pay growth still at 5%-6% year-on-year and the employer national insurance contributions hike effectively raising companies' labour costs by another two percentage points, it is difficult to see price pressures cooling much over the remainder of the year,' he said. Wishart warned that survey data showed services inflation could rise further. 'That would be evidence that demand is solid enough for companies to pass on increases in their costs, and force the Bank of England to take an extended pause in their cutting cycle until services inflation is on a downward path again.' Richard Flax, chief investment officer at wealth manager Moneyfarm, said the BoE faced a delicate balancing act. 'The central bank is likely to remain cautious, potentially delaying rate cuts until there's clearer evidence that inflationary momentum is genuinely easing.' The BoE will announce its next decision on interest rates on 19 June. Read more: Rachel Reeves rules out cutting ISA limit but remains vague on cash savings Bank of England cutting interest rates 'too fast', warns chief economist UK high street in the spotlight as key data and results cap off earnings seasonError in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
