Latest news with #SarahHouse
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
May CPI preview: Inflation expected to tick higher as tariff uncertainty lingers
May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show prices increased at a slightly faster clip than in April. The report, due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, comes as investors closely watch for any signs that President Trump's tariffs are impacting what consumers pay. According to Bloomberg data, headline inflation is expected to have accelerated slightly to 2.4% in May from 2.3% in April, which marked the lowest yearly increase since February 2021. Month-over-month prices are estimated to rise 0.2%, matching April's increase. On a "core" basis, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, CPI is expected to have risen 2.9% over the past year in May, a slight acceleration from April's 2.8%. Monthly core price increases are anticipated to rise 0.3%, ahead of April's 0.2%. The report reflects the time period about a month after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements shook markets and businesses. Since then, many reciprocal tariffs have been paused, but the 10% baseline duties for most countries remain in place. Mexico and Canada continue to face fentanyl-related tariffs, and industry-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos remain unchanged. Tariffs on China remain significant, with the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods hovering around 30%. "May's CPI report will be an important test of the speed and magnitude to which higher tariff rates are being passed along to the consumer," said the Wells Fargo economics team, led by Sarah House, in a preview note. House expects a modest rise in overall and core inflation from higher goods prices but doesn't foresee a big jump in this report. Still, economists there say the risk of higher prices later this year remains, a view shared by many on Wall Street. Read more: How to protect your savings against inflation "Going forward, the impact of tariffs will likely provide a somewhat larger boost to monthly inflation, and we expect monthly core CPI inflation of around 0.35% over the next few months," Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs wrote, noting a "sharp acceleration" in most core goods categories but limited impact on core services inflation, at least in the near term. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas said that although May's core inflation reading could register its strongest monthly gain since Q2 2023, hotter prints are expected in June and July. According to BNP, price increases from tariffs typically appear two to three months after implementation. However, broader uncertainty about the timing and impact of tariff-related price changes has weighed on the outlook. "The Trump administration's 'yo yo' approach to implementing tariffs and attendant uncertainties about their timing, form, and longevity may encourage firms to adopt a policy of strategic patience around increasing prices," Andy Schneider, senior US economist at BNP Paribas, wrote in a note to clients last week. "This could potentially delay tariff-induced inflation, in addition to leading to an ultimately messier and more persistent response." Echoing this uncertainty, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic recently said constant tariff changes are "making it much harder to declare with any conviction that price increases from tariffs will be a one-time event." Markets still expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting next week. Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Job openings rise more than expected in April despite tariff escalation
Job openings unexpectedly rose in the first month that a wide swath of President Trump's tariffs went into effect. After hovering near a four-year low in March, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.39 million jobs open at the end of April, an increase from the 7.2 million seen the month prior. The data comes as investors closely watch for signs that economic growth may be slowing further. The March figure was revised higher from the 7.19 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Tuesday's report to show 7.1 million openings in April. The April survey included data from the period immediately following Trump's announcement of steep reciprocal tariffs for a host of countries. Those were put on a 90-day pause on April 9, with 10% baseline tariffs remaining in effect. The data doesn't include any reaction to the US-China tariff pause in May. "A rise in job openings at the end of April shows labor demand is far from collapsing in the wake of policy uncertainty, but the modest gain still leaves openings declining on trend," Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. "Turnover remains subdued as businesses await more clarity on the outlook and workers await more job opportunities." The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed that 5.57 million hires were made during the month, up slightly from the 5.4 million made during March. The hiring rate ticked up to 3.5% from 3.4%. In one sign that workers may be getting more cautious about labor market conditions, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, moved down slightly to 2% from 2.1% in March. Both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows, reflecting what economists have described as a labor market in "stasis." Wolfe Research chief economist Stephanie Roth told Yahoo Finance that the slight tick down in quits in April shows "at the margin, a cooling off economy." The latest JOLTs data comes as market participants continue to closely watch economic data for any signs that Trump's tariff escalation is weighing on growth data. In April, tariffs appeared to have minimal impact on the headline labor market numbers as the US economy added 177,000 nonfarm payrolls while the unemployment rate held flat at 4.2%. Economists don't expect Friday's May jobs report to show significant signs of cooling either. Consensus expects a modest higher slowdown with nonfarm payroll additions projected to fall to 130,000 in May while the unemployment rate once again held flat at 4.2%. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
Daily Mail
25-05-2025
- Daily Mail
Family share update on TikTok star horrifically injured by hit-and-run drunk driver... as she passes major milestone
The family of a TikToker who was left with life-changing injuries after a horrific hit-and-run crash have revealed she is undergoing rehab and can now speak. Camryn Herriage, 24, miraculously survived the smash that injured five people and killed her best friend Sarah House last February. Their vehicle was waiting at a red light in Dallas when a Ford pickup truck slammed into them, causing a chain reaction car crash. Herriage was rushed to hospital and placed on a ventilator while her college roommate House, 22, died. In posts to her social media in March and April, her mother has revealed Herriage has been undergoing extensive rehab and has started talking again. Part of her rehab includes swimming, Shirley wrote, as she asked for followers to pray for her daughter. She wrote: 'Just pray for her to hold up and all of us to get answers to our prayers. She will walk again. She is fighting so hard. It just breaks my heart.' Following the incident she underwent brain surgery, heart surgery and several other operations. In posts to her social media in March and April, her mother Shirley has revealed that Herriage has been undergoing extensive rehab and has started speaking Doctors had not expected her to do as well as she has due to how traumatic her injuries are. Herriage had also celebrated her birthday earlier this year, something which her uncle Tim had celebrated, expressing his gratitude for her. He said: 'Camryn is 24 today. She almost wasn't. She's had an amazingly difficult 11 months since her accident. 'She's happy, cheerful, and funny. She believes she'll walk again and that God has a purpose for her. She says she's going to work for me, and I think that would be awesome. Her mind is in better shape than her body. 'But, 11 months ago her head wasn't connected to her body, to I'd say she's kicking ass. It won't be easy. It won't be perfect. But she is a fighter and has her mind right.' The two were struck by an 'extremely intoxicated' woman, later identified as 27-year-old Carmen Guerrero who bystanders say fled the scene on foot. Guerrero was later arrested 11 days after the collision when detectives located her wallet in her vehicle. According to Shirley, Guerrero was sentenced in April to 18 years for the horrific smash and revealed that her daughter had spoke at sentencing. She posted: 'She did such an amazing job. She had everyone in the courtroom in tears. Everyone could hear every word. She said it was so clear and so well spoken. 'She said the lady was a monster for what she did to her friend and to her!!As, you know, she lost her best friend in the car wreck. We were so proud of her.' House worked at Ralph Lauren after graduating from Texas Tech, having studied business, management and marketing and also competed in bikini competitions. House was remembered in a GoFundMe, which raised over $36,000, for her 'bright spirit and infectious laughter'. 'Sara was known for her compassionate nature and her unwavering desire to make everyone around her happy,' her loved ones said last month. 'Her kindness and caring demeanor touched the lives of many, leaving a lasting impression on all who knew her.' Herriage's sister Casie Campanello previously said: 'A careless act put us in a situation that change all of our lives. The college roommates were extremely close and would often make TikToks together, which Herriage shared on her profile boasting 32,000 followers. Herriage worked at a social media management and branding company based in Lubbock, Texas. She had only recently moved back to North Texas after graduating from college in December.
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US private employers add just 62,000 jobs in April amid 'difficult' hiring environment
Private employers added fewer jobs than expected in April as a sense of "unease" led to a slowdown in hiring as investors watch for signs tariffs are weighing on economic growth. On Wednesday, data from ADP showed private payrolls grew by just 62,000 in April, far fewer than the 115,000 expected by economists and below the 147,000 new jobs added in March. This marked the smallest increase in private payrolls since July 2024. "Unease is the word of the day," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in the release. "Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment." The report comes just two days before the government's monthly jobs report is released on Friday. The April jobs report is expected to show 133,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy this month while unemployment held steady at 4.2%, according to data from Bloomberg. In March, the US economy added 228,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Wednesday's ADP release comes also one day after a weaker-than-expected reading on job openings for the month of March. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.19 million jobs were open at the end of March, a decrease from the 7.48 million seen in February. Job openings in March hit their lowest level since September 2024 and were near levels not seen since December 2020. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed 5.4 million hires were made during the month, up slightly from the 5.37 million made during February. The hiring rate held steady at 3.4%. The quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, moved up slightly in February to 2.1% from 2%. Both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows. Meanwhile, the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers fell to 1.02% in March, the lowest since the post-pandemic labor market recovery began. This means there is now roughly one unemployed worker for each open job in the economy. During the post-pandemic recovery in 2022, this ratio was closer to 2:1. Sarah House, senior economists at Wells Fargo, said the decline in this ratio "is reflective of a steady weakening in labor demand." House added that the labor market is currently in a "fragile stasis that makes it vulnerable to being knocked off balance should the deteriorating outlook for growth come to fruition." Another wide-ranging update on the state of the labor market is slated for release on Friday morning. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
09-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
March CPI report could be last time investors see inflation easing
March's Consumer Price Index (CPI) could be the last time investors see moderating inflation as President Trump's tariff spree threatens to upend recent easing in price growth. The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, will greet investors less than 24 hours after markets rallied on the latest trade development: a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries and a simultaneous increase of US levies on Chinese imports. "The March CPI data will feel dated," Wells Fargo economist Sarah House said in a preview of the report. "But [it] should shed some light on how the changing trade environment was already beginning to affect pricing." Price increases are expected to have mostly moderated during the third month of the year. Monthly core prices, however, are expected to remain sticky after February's report registered the first deceleration in price growth for both headline and core CPI since July. Headline annual inflation is forecast to come in at 2.5% in March, a slowdown from February's 2.8% annual gain. On a month-over-month basis, prices are estimated to rise 0.1%, below the 0.2% increase seen in February. On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile food and energy costs, CPI is expected to have risen 3.0% over the past year in March. That's a touch below February's 3.1% increase, which was the lowest yearly increase in core CPI since April 2021. Monthly core price increases are anticipated to rise 0.3%, ahead of February's 0.2% rise. Although Trump has paused reciprocal tariffs (for now), the 10% baseline duties that went into effect last weekend for most countries remain. Mexico and Canada still face a separate set of duties related to fentanyl, while separate industry-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos remain unchanged. The president also announced he would unilaterally raise the tariff rate on China to 125%, citing "the lack of respect that China has shown." Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Core inflation has remained stubbornly elevated due to sticky costs for shelter and services like insurance and medical care. But shelter prices did show further signs of easing in February, rising 4.2% on an annual basis, the smallest 12-month increase since December 2021. Still, given shifting trade dynamics, Wells Fargo's House said March looks set to mark the low point in core inflation this year as tariffs lead to faster price growth. That, coupled with rising fears of a self-inflicted recession, has kept the Fed in "wait-and-see" mode when it comes to interest rates. "While there remain many uncertainties around the duration, pass-through and second-round price effects of these tariffs, the direction of travel is clear," the economist said, noting current trade policy "brings new challenges to putting inflation back in the bottle." She added, "The last leg of the Fed's inflation fight has proved difficult for more than a year now and has underscored the challenges of fully stomping out inflation without a significant weakening in demand." To that point, Powell made it clear during remarks delivered last week the Fed is in no hurry to adjust its interest rate stance: "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at Sign in to access your portfolio
