Latest news with #SarahMinson
Daily Mail
28-05-2025
- Climate
- Daily Mail
BREAKING NEWS California rocked by earthquake felt for 100 miles
California was hit by a 3.3 magnitude earthquake on Wednesday, along a major fault line overdue for a major one. The US Geological Survey detected the tremor at 9:31am PT outside of Borrego Springs, about 87 miles north of San Diego. California experiences around 27 to 35 earthquakes per day, but most are very small and go unnoticed. However, Wednesday's quake was felt by dozens of people who reported weak to light shaking. The seismic activity comes as scientists warned the Bay Area will soon suffer a devastating earthquake in the next few decades. Sarah Minson from the US Geological Survey (USGS) said this month that the chances of the long-feared 'Big One' striking San Francisco by 2055 have risen to a staggering 72 percent. That is because the region sits on top of the San Andreas Fault, an 800-mile-long fault which runs right through the Bay Area, which is overdue for 'The Big One' - a magnitude 7.8 earthquake or higher. While Minson believes there may be some time left for Californians, USGS disagrees and warns that the first major earthquake will come in just seven years. This is a developing story... More updates to come
Daily Mail
26-05-2025
- Science
- Daily Mail
Chances 'The Big One' devastates California by 2032 skyrocket as new earthquake swarm hits area
California 's Bay Area is now almost certain to suffer a devastating earthquake within the next few decades, with some experts warning it could come as soon as 2032. Sarah Minson from the US Geological Survey (USGS) has warned that the chances of the long-feared 'Big One' striking San Francisco by 2055 have risen to a staggering 72 percent. In fact, Minson said that 'one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger' quakes are more than likely to strike Northern California within 30 years. Scientists have warned that the San Andreas Fault, an 800-mile-long fault which runs right through the Bay Area, is overdue for 'The Big One' - a magnitude 7.8 earthquake or higher. While Minson believes there may be some time left for Californians, USGS disagrees and warns that the first major earthquake will come in just seven years. 'The threat of earthquakes extends across the entire San Francisco Bay region, and a major quake is likely before 2032,' the agency wrote in a report. The last time a quake stronger than 6.7 in magnitude struck the Bay Area was the Loma Prieta earthquake that killed 63 people and injured nearly 4,000 in 1989. The new fears that 'The Big One' is on the way come as a fresh earthquake swarm rattled California's coast Monday morning, right near the northern tip of the San Andreas Fault. USGS revealed early Monday morning that seven earthquakes struck the Pacific just off the coast of Northern California between 1:54am and 7:01am ET. Five of those quakes took place just minutes apart between 4:17am and 4:38am, with one of them registering at magnitude 4.6. The swarm took place roughly 50 miles southwest of Eureka, which sits near the northern boundary of the infamous fault line. No injuries or damage has been reported. Based on historical trends, it's estimated the San Andreas causes a major quake every 150 years or so. The last one was 167 years ago. The last 'Big One' in California was a magnitude 7.9 quake that decimated San Francisco in 1906, killing 3,000 people and leveling 80 percent of the city's buildings. Minson explained that such a massive earthquake is the rarest of the rare, making the Loma Prieta earthquake look common in comparison. 'For every magnitude 8, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, there are 10 Loma Prieta-sized earthquakes, and 100 Napa-sized earthquakes, and 1,000 magnitude 5 earthquakes,' the geophysicist told The Mercury News. Experts predict the next 'Big One' would cause roughly 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries and $200 billion in damages, according to the Great California Shakeout. Despite the growing likelihood that at least one major earthquake is just years away, Minson warned that Californians need to focus more on the threat coming from smaller quakes striking the state each year. 'Even though each of those smaller earthquakes impacts a smaller area and they are less likely to cause damage, they happen so much more frequently that overall the risk from them is higher,' Minson said. The USGS scientist compared major earthquakes to shark attacks, something so rare but so terrifying that many people overlook the more immediate danger. 'Sharks kill on average about five people a year and cows kill on average about 22 people a year,' she continued. To prepare for the inevitable 'Big One,' Minson said it's important to have a backup plan of how to get in contact with family in case normal communication and transportation goes down during the earthquake. 'You want water, food, those sorts of things. Think of your pets. You can go to for more information,' she added. Although the San Andreas is drawing most of the attention when it comes to predicting California's next big earthquake, Minson warned that a lesser known fault line could be the real trigger for disaster. 'The Hayward Fault seems to have the highest rate of earthquakes,' the USGS expert explained. The Hayward Fault runs along the foot of the East Bay hills. The last major earthquake hit on October 21, 1868, measuring a 6.8 magnitude. Historical records show that five people were killed and 30 were injured. Scientists have been monitoring the fault, finding it produces major quakes ever 140 years. Researchers at the University of California, Berkley said: 'Since it has been more than 144 years since the last major earthquake, the clock is ticking.' 'It is very likely that the Hayward fault will rupture and produce a significant earthquake within the next 30 years.'
Miami Herald
25-05-2025
- Science
- Miami Herald
The next big earthquake: When is the Bay Area due?
SAN JOSE, Calif. - California has dozens of earthquakes every day. Most are below 3.0 magnitude, so small that they aren't felt. But a few, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, are massive, capable of widespread destruction. The last significant damaging earthquake in the Bay Area was the 6.0 South Napa Quake on Aug. 24, 2014, which killed 1 person, injured 300 and caused $1 billion in damage in Napa and Vallejo. Before that, it was the 6.9 magnitude Loma Prieta Earthquake on Oct. 17, 1989, which disrupted the World Series, and wrecked the Bay Bridge, Oakland's Cypress Freeway, downtown Santa Cruz, and parts of San Francisco, killing 63 people. The Bay Area has had a quiet few decades. Is it due for another major quake any time soon? Sarah Minson is a research geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Science Center at Moffett Field. This conversation has been condensed and edited for clarity and length. Question: What's the current risk of a major quake occurring in the Bay Area? Answer: There is about a 72% probability of one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes within 30 years in the San Francisco Bay Area. Q: That sounds pretty high. How aware of that risk do you think Bay Area residents are? A: Relative to other parts of the country, or possibly even other parts of California, people in the Bay Area do tend to be very well aware because of events like Loma Prieta and the Napa earthquake. They happened in living memory. And even if there is always a new group of arrivals in the Bay Area or young kids who haven't lived through them, it is within a human lifespan, so there is a lot more lived experience - stories from your close friends and family - than in other places where earthquakes happen only once every 100 years or 1,000 years. Q: What would the impact be of a 6.7 to a 7.0 quake in the Bay Area today? A: I like the fact that you're asking about 6.7-to-7.0 magnitude earthquakes because it turns out that most of our earthquake risk is from magnitude 6-ish earthquakes, rather than a magnitude 8 big one, like the 1906 earthquake. That's just because they happen so much more often. A good rule of thumb is that every magnitude decrease is an increase by a factor of 10 in how frequently earthquakes happen. So, for every magnitude 8, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, there are 10 Loma Prieta-sized earthquakes, and 100 Napa-sized earthquakes, and 1,000 magnitude 5 earthquakes. Even though each of those smaller earthquakes impacts a smaller area and they are less likely to cause damage, they happen so much more frequently that overall the risk from them is higher. Q: Why is that? A: A colleague of mine likes to say that the comparison between big and small earthquakes is like the difference between sharks and cows. Think of big earthquakes like sharks and little earthquakes like cows. Sharks are scary. Cows are not. But you almost never come face to snout with a shark, right? Whereas you meet cows all the time. And if you look at the statistics, it turns out that sharks kill on average about five people a year and cows kill on average about 22 people a year. So even though the 2014 Napa earthquake didn't impact all of Northern California like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake did, the shaking locally in Napa was probably higher there than it was during the 1906 earthquake. These earthquakes that we experience year after year and decade after decade are actually where most of our hazard comes from. When you're thinking about preparing for an earthquake, these are really the kinds of earthquakes you want to be preparing for. The cataclysmic earthquakes happen so infrequently. They are the sharks. But the cows are what's going to get you. Q: Which faults in the Bay Area are of most concern? A: In general, the Hayward Fault seems to have the highest rate of earthquakes. Not in our lifetime. But if you look in the 1800s, there were a number of earthquakes and so overall that seems to be the highest rate long term, followed by the San Andreas Fault. Q: The Hayward Fault seems to be the one we hear people most worried about. Is that fair? A: Everyone is concerned about the faults to go through the urban core. But it's important to know that your hazard isn't necessarily governed by your proximity to the fault. It's not the earthquake itself that causes damage. It's the shaking from the earthquake or potentially liquefaction or landslides. In fact, one of the highest hazard places in the Bay Area would be the Santa Clara Valley, because it's right in between the Hayward Fault and the San Andreas Fault, so it's going to feel shaking if there's an earthquake on either of them. On top of that, it's a valley full of soft sediment, and soft sediment can amplify shaking. Q: What should you do if you feel an earthquake? A: You have bookcases in buildings that can tip over or books that can just fall out of a bookcase. You might have a chandelier over your head. That's why if you feel shaking, you should drop, cover and hold on to protect yourself. Don't go anywhere. Don't run outside. A huge number of the injuries that occur in earthquakes are people stepping on broken glass or trying to run during the shaking and falling down. Q: How should we prepare? A:The sort of things you need to do are the things you need in any other disaster, like large winter storms and wildfires. You want to have a plan to be in contact with your family in case normal communication or transportation is interrupted. You want water, food, those sorts of things. Think of your pets. You can go to for more information. Q: What's the takeaway message? A: Earthquakes are something that you don't want to be fatalistic about. We have a tendency to focus on apocalyptic stories of magnitude 8 earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault or magnitude 9 on the Cascadia Subduction Zone that bring destruction to a huge swath of the state. If you're an emergency manager or someone like that you should be prepared for these possibilities. But for you as a human, with a human life span, the thing much more likely to impact you is not even something like Loma Prieta but something like the Napa earthquake. These earthquakes are very survivable. They don't even necessarily have to interrupt your life all that much with some very simple preparedness. Five interesting things about Sarah Minson -Raised in Mendocino County, California -Earned her bachelor's degree in geophysics at the University of California, Berkeley in 2003. -Earned her master's and doctorate degrees in geophysics at the California Institute of Technology in 2005 and 2010, with a doctoral thesis on "A Bayesian Approach to Earthquake Source Studies." -Expert in rupture models, earthquake early warning systems, earthquake source mechanisms, crustal deformation, and public outreach of seismic issues -Awards include 2020 USGS Superior Service Award; 2018 Kavli Fellow (National Academy of Sciences and The Kavli Foundation); 2021, 2021, 2019, 2016 U.S. Geological Survey STAR Award; 2014 Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers. Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
