Latest news with #SatoshiSugiyama
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
BOJ to postpone rate hike to Q1 next year, tiny majority of economists say: Reuters poll
By Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan will forego another interest rate hike this year due to uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy, according to a slight majority of economists in a Reuters poll who expect the next 25-basis-point increase in early 2026. Japan's central bank will slow the pace of tapering its government bond purchases from next fiscal year, a majority also said, while three in four surveyed expect the government to cut down on issuance of super-long bonds. The latest results reflect policymakers' apprehension at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump's erratic tariff policies are threatening the economic outlook and as investors are increasingly concerned about Japan's public finances. The BOJ is still pushing for tighter monetary conditions, contrasting with its peers tilting for rate cuts, with its governor Kazuo Ueda stressing the central bank's readiness to keep raising interest rates if underlying inflation approaches its 2% target. "If trade negotiations between the United States and other countries progress, global economic activity is likely to pick up," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute. "The timing of policy interest rate hikes is now more likely to be delayed compared to previous projections, but the BOJ is expected to implement an additional rate hike in the first quarter of 2026." None of the 60 economists in the June 2-10 survey expected the BOJ to raise rates at its upcoming policy meeting on June 16-17. Specifically, 52% of economists, 30 of 58, expected borrowing costs to stay at 0.50% at year-end, the reverse of a poll in May when 52% expected rates at 0.75% by end-2025. Interest rate futures are only pricing in about 17 basis points more of tightening from the BOJ by year-end. More than three-quarters of respondents, 40 of 51, now expect at least one 25-basis-point increase by end-March, the poll showed. Of 35 economists who specified a month for when the BOJ will next hike rates, January 2025 was the top choice at 37%, followed by 23% for October this year and 9% saying March 2025. The BOJ exited a massive stimulus programme in March last year and pushed up short-term interest rates to 0.25% in July and 0.50% in January. Just over half of respondents, 17 of 31, said the BOJ would decelerate its pace of tapering JGB purchases from the current roughly 400 billion yen per quarter beyond April next year. Of those respondents the quarterly taper size prediction ranged from 200 billion yen to 370 billion yen. The BOJ began tapering its huge bond buying last year to wean the economy off decades of massive stimulus even though it still owns roughly half of outstanding JGBs. Three-quarters of economists, 21 of 28, said the government would trim issuance of super-long bonds while the rest said the amount would not change. Yields on super-long JGBs rose to record levels last month due to dwindling demand from traditional buyers like life insurers and concern over steadily rising debt levels. Reuters reported on Monday the government is considering buying back some super-long bonds it issued at low interest rates on top of an expected government plan to trim issuance of super-long bonds in the wake of sharp rises in yields. Seventeen said the issuance of 30-year JGBs would be reduced, followed by 16 selecting 40-year and 10 choosing 20-year bonds. Survey respondents were allowed to give multiple responses. "With the auction results consistently weak, the finance ministry is facing strong pressure to reduce the amount of super-long JGBs issued from July onwards," said Kazutaka Maeda, economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute. (Other stories from the June Reuters global economic poll) Melden Sie sich an, um Ihr Portfolio aufzurufen.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
BOJ to postpone rate hike to Q1 next year, tiny majority of economists say: Reuters poll
By Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan will forego another interest rate hike this year due to uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy, according to a slight majority of economists in a Reuters poll who expect the next 25-basis-point increase in early 2026. Japan's central bank will slow the pace of tapering its government bond purchases from next fiscal year, a majority also said, while three in four surveyed expect the government to cut down on issuance of super-long bonds. The latest results reflect policymakers' apprehension at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump's erratic tariff policies are threatening the economic outlook and as investors are increasingly concerned about Japan's public finances. The BOJ is still pushing for tighter monetary conditions, contrasting with its peers tilting for rate cuts, with its governor Kazuo Ueda stressing the central bank's readiness to keep raising interest rates if underlying inflation approaches its 2% target. "If trade negotiations between the United States and other countries progress, global economic activity is likely to pick up," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute. "The timing of policy interest rate hikes is now more likely to be delayed compared to previous projections, but the BOJ is expected to implement an additional rate hike in the first quarter of 2026." None of the 60 economists in the June 2-10 survey expected the BOJ to raise rates at its upcoming policy meeting on June 16-17. Specifically, 52% of economists, 30 of 58, expected borrowing costs to stay at 0.50% at year-end, the reverse of a poll in May when 52% expected rates at 0.75% by end-2025. Interest rate futures are only pricing in about 17 basis points more of tightening from the BOJ by year-end. More than three-quarters of respondents, 40 of 51, now expect at least one 25-basis-point increase by end-March, the poll showed. Of 35 economists who specified a month for when the BOJ will next hike rates, January 2025 was the top choice at 37%, followed by 23% for October this year and 9% saying March 2025. The BOJ exited a massive stimulus programme in March last year and pushed up short-term interest rates to 0.25% in July and 0.50% in January. Just over half of respondents, 17 of 31, said the BOJ would decelerate its pace of tapering JGB purchases from the current roughly 400 billion yen per quarter beyond April next year. Of those respondents the quarterly taper size prediction ranged from 200 billion yen to 370 billion yen. The BOJ began tapering its huge bond buying last year to wean the economy off decades of massive stimulus even though it still owns roughly half of outstanding JGBs. Three-quarters of economists, 21 of 28, said the government would trim issuance of super-long bonds while the rest said the amount would not change. Yields on super-long JGBs rose to record levels last month due to dwindling demand from traditional buyers like life insurers and concern over steadily rising debt levels. Reuters reported on Monday the government is considering buying back some super-long bonds it issued at low interest rates on top of an expected government plan to trim issuance of super-long bonds in the wake of sharp rises in yields. Seventeen said the issuance of 30-year JGBs would be reduced, followed by 16 selecting 40-year and 10 choosing 20-year bonds. Survey respondents were allowed to give multiple responses. "With the auction results consistently weak, the finance ministry is facing strong pressure to reduce the amount of super-long JGBs issued from July onwards," said Kazutaka Maeda, economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute. (Other stories from the June Reuters global economic poll)
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
BOJ to pause rate hikes through September amid Trump uncertainty: Reuters poll
By Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO (Reuters) - Most economists now expect the Bank of Japan will hold interest rates through September as it pauses to assess the effects of U.S. tariffs, a Reuters survey showed, although a slight majority still see at least a 25-basis-point hike by year-end. Those results echoed views expressed by BOJ rate-setters that U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs have disrupted but not derailed the bank's endeavours for slightly tighter monetary conditions, even as many peers are leaning toward reducing borrowing costs. In the May 7-13 survey, 95% of economists, 59 of 62, forecast no change to interest rates at the BOJ's next policy meeting concluding on June 17. In a shift from last month, 67% of economists, 39 of 58, expect borrowing costs to stay at the current 0.50% in the July-September quarter. Around 36% of respondents, a minority, had anticipated no change in the interest rate during that period in an April poll. "The BOJ will be unable to raise interest rates for the time being to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs," said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus. Still, 52% of respondents foresaw at least a 25-basis-point increase in the key rate by the end of the year, the survey showed. The median prediction for the end-September rate was 0.50%, as opposed to 0.75% in the April poll, while the end-December forecast remained unchanged at 0.75%. "In the short term, the economy will slow down and the underlying rate of inflation will moderate, but the virtuous cycle of wages and prices is likely to continue," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute. "If trade negotiations between the U.S. and major countries progress, global economic activity will begin to recover," Tsunoda said, adding the timing of the next rate hike is more likely to be delayed compared to previous projections. Little changed from the April survey, 96% of respondents, 26 of 27, did not see the need for the BOJ to cut interest rates. Markets have priced a nearly 19 basis point increase in 2025, with the move broadly expected by the end of the year. BOJ deputy governor Shinichi Uchida told parliament on Tuesday the central bank expects wages and prices to keep rising, even as uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy weighs on the economy, keeping policymakers on course to continue raising interest rates. On April 2, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all countries except Canada, Mexico and China, along with higher tariff rates for many big trading partners, including Japan, which faces a 24% tariff rate starting in July unless it can negotiate a deal with the U.S. Japan's tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa previously told reporters the two sides hoped to meet again in mid-May. In the survey 55% of analysts, 16 of 29, said they either strongly or somewhat approved of the Japanese government's tariff negotiations with the U.S., followed by "neither approve nor disapprove" at 34%. (Other stories from the May Reuters global economic poll)
Yahoo
02-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Japan Q1 GDP likely contracted on soft domestic demand, import surge: Reuters poll
By Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economy probably contracted for the first time in a year in the first quarter, weighed down by softer domestic demand and imports outperforming exports, a Reuters poll showed, as U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies dim the growth outlook. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to have contracted an annualised 0.2% in January-March, according to a median forecast of 15 economists. That would mark a significant cool down from the previous quarter's 2.2% expansion and would be the first contraction since the first quarter last year. On a quarter-on-quarter basis before annualisation, the first-quarter growth rate was projected at -0.1%, compared with growth of 0.6% in the fourth quarter. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half Japan's economic output, likely inched up 0.1% in the first quarter. Analysts say higher food costs are partly the reason consumers are holding back on spending. "The employment and income situation remains favourable, but consumer sentiment is weakening due to factors such as rising prices and increased thriftiness," said Shinichiro Kobayashi, principal economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting. Capital expenditure was seen up 0.8%, attributed to upbeat corporate performances. External demand, or net exports, which means shipments minus imports, likely shaved 0.6 percentage off GDP growth. Exports were expected to have increased for the fourth consecutive quarter as businesses rushed to ship cars overseas before tariffs took effect. However, Kobayashi said imports probably increased more than exports, resulting in a net negative. The GDP data will be announced on May 16 at 8:50 a.m.(2350 GMT on May 15). The Bank of Japan on Thursday decided to keep interest rates steady and cut its growth forecasts, suggesting that uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and the hit to exports could keep policy in a holding pattern for some time. Rising trade tensions from Trump's sweeping tariffs have sent shockwaves through markets and led to a sharp downgrade in the International Monetary Fund's global growth forecasts. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Japan's factory output slides as Trump tariffs jolt manufacturers
By Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's factory output fell more than expected in March, dragged down by its key motor vehicles industry, as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies rattle manufacturers and a whole host of industries globally. Japan's trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa will be heading to the United States on Wednesday to meet his counterparts for a second round of tariff negotiations. Industrial output fell 1.1% in March from the previous month when it rose 2.3%, worse than a median market forecast for a 0.4% fall, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industries (METI) data showed. While manufacturers surveyed by the ministry expect seasonally adjusted output to increase 1.3% in April and climb 3.9% in May, a METI official cautioned that it is too early for optimism. "The environment surrounding production remains highly uncertain," the official said. Motor vehicle production was down 5.9% in March from the previous month, the METI said. Specifically, regular passenger car output fell 4.1% in March because of lower exports, while small vehicle production slumped 23.2% on auto part supply disruption. Trump introduced a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and announced a 24% tariff on all Japanese goods, though the latter was subsequently slashed to 10% for 90 days. The sweeping U.S. tariffs are rattling Japan's industrial supply chains, particularly for automobiles, the country's biggest export item. Japan exported 21 trillion yen ($147.45 billion) worth of goods to the United States last year, with automobiles representing roughly 28% of the total. The METI official said manufacturers expressed their concerns about U.S. tariffs though the government isn't aware of any changes in their production plans. Still, Japanese companies are worried Trump's protectionist policies would spark a broader global slowdown. Top Japanese construction machinery maker Komatsu on Monday forecast a 27% decline in operating profit this financial year due to a stronger yen and new U.S. tariffs which will have an impact of more than $650 million. Separate data showed Japanese retail sales rose 3.1% in March from a year earlier, slightly less than the median market forecast for a 3.5% rise. ($1 = 142.4200 yen) Sign in to access your portfolio
