19-05-2025
The Russia-China push in the arctic – a new strategic flashpoint
Written by Sayantan Haldar
On March 12, the 14th meeting of the Arctic Council marked the conclusion of Norway's term its chair. The Arctic Council serves as the apex intergovernmental forum fostering regional cooperation and promoting governance in the Arctic region. The forum comprises eight permanent members – Canada, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, United States, and Denmark (including Greenland and the Faroe Islands). After a tumultuous period of difficulty in keeping the Arctic Council effectively operational, Norway has passed the baton to Denmark as the new chair of the Council.
While much of the history of the region's governance has boasted of 'Arctic exceptionalism' – an expression rooted in the manifest efforts to keep the region immune from geopolitical tensions, the Arctic finds itself in unprecedented times. The Russia-Ukraine war has significantly altered the geopolitical landscape in the Arctic. Since 2022, the progress of the Arctic Council as an effective forum for regional governance has been significantly hindered.
Given the nature of the forum, driven by a model of unanimous consensus, minimal engagement with Russia has jeopardised its effectiveness. The accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO since the beginning of the war has exacerbated tensions within the group. At present, the Arctic Council has seven NATO member states and Russia. Given Russian sensitivities about NATO, any possibility of the group making effective progress appears increasingly difficult.
US President Donald Trump's claim to seek control over the territory of Greenland has complicated matters further. Since assuming office in January 2025, Trump has maintained that American control of Greenland's territory would be essential for Washington's national security, as well as international security. Importantly, US interests in the region are not limited to matters of hard security but also remain anchored on the vast natural resources available in the region. Given the escalating strategic race for critical minerals and rare earth elements, the Arctic region is likely to emerge as an important area.
Given the need for Russia to find alternatives for enhancing cooperation in the Arctic, China has emerged as a crucial partner. Chinese ambitions in the Arctic have also seen a rise. In 2014, President Xi Jinping made China's ambitions to emerge as a 'Polar Power' public. Since then, China has called itself a 'near-Arctic state', signalling a push for greater involvement in Arctic affairs.
China does not have any coastal exposure to the Arctic nor does it claim control over any sovereign territory within the Arctic region. Russia-China naval cooperation in the Arctic region has, therefore, ushered in a new strategic dimension into the evolving geopolitical matrix in the region. This emerging axis must serve as a reminder to the Arctic countries of the need to sustain continued cooperation in the region.
Given these evolving developments, the Arctic Council is faced with critical challenges. Arctic exceptionalism is withering. With competing interests in the region, the lack of effective governance mechanisms therein, the Arctic runs the risk of rapidly emerging as a strategic flashpoint. Notably, these developments will have severe consequences at a global scale.
Growing climate concerns in the Arctic resulting in the melting of ice poses the risk of rising sea levels. The melting of Arctic ice has also opened new avenues for expanding networks of shipping routes. This is likely to result in the entry of new players and stakeholders in the region. While this provides opportunities to expand global supply chains and enhance global trade, effective governance will become a major imperative for the region.
Will the potential entry of new players into the Arctic require a wider reimagining of the Arctic governance architecture? How will the Arctic governance mechanism confront the changing geopolitical calculus in the region? The Arctic Council will need to delicately balance these pressing questions. However, for this, a normative acknowledgement of withering Arctic exceptionalism will need to be a starting point.
The writer is Research Assistant, Maritime Studies at Observer Research Foundation
