Latest news with #SchmidtAutomotiveResearch
Telegraph
28-05-2025
- Automotive
- Telegraph
The EU's black sheep helping China launch its electric car invasion
It could be the handshake that sealed the fate of the European car industry. A year ago, Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, made one of his vanishingly rare visits to Europe. The centrepiece was a stop in Budapest to meet Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister. On the airport tarmac, amid a pageant of soldiers and folk dancers, the two strongmen gripped each other's arms with seemingly genuine fervour. Orban's red-carpet treatment of Xi now seems to have paid off. Earlier this month, BYD, the Chinese car giant, announced plans to establish its European headquarters in Hungary, having already built a factory in the country. By securing this foothold, BYD will be able to bypass tariffs that Brussels imposed on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) last year, thwarting the EU's attempt to protect its struggling carmakers from a flood of cheap imports. Inevitably, it will also deepen the split between Orban and the rest of Europe, with the Hungarian leader already the bloc's bogeyman. 'It completely allows them to get around the tariffs,' says Matthias Schmidt, founder of European consultancy Schmidt Automotive Research. 'It allows them tariff-free access to the European Union member states.'
Forbes
27-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Sales Growth Of Chinese EVs Slows In Europe While ‘Social Leasing' Gains Support
Lease a car Europe's electric vehicle sales are accelerating again, but the growth of EVs from China has slowed in Europe while plug-in hybrids have a new lease of life. The era of easy sales to so-called early adopters has come to an end while an idea to use government funds to subsidize EV leases is gaining support. Forecasters still expect a healthy overall increase in the European EV market in 2025, although longer-term targets based on European Union CO2 emissions rules still look impossibly high. Investment bank UBS slashed almost two million EVs from its sales forecast for Europe in 2030. That now stands at 6.4 million EV sales in Europe in 2030, down from 8.3 million forecast in February for a market share of 37.8% (48.6%). According to Schmidt Automotive Research, Chinese companies' share of the EV market share in Western Europe held steady at 1.6% in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter, while sales of ICE, hybrid and PHEVs from China accelerated to 3.2% from 2.2%. European EV makers might be feeling less pressure, but it's not really good news for them. 'The threat is now coming from ICE, hybrids and PHEVs, which avoid anti-subsidy tariffs, in place since November. However, unfortunately for incumbents, this is where high profit margins are still made and where the transition (to EVs) funds were due to be harvested from,' said Matt Schmidt, founder of Schmidt Automotive Research. Last October, the EU raised tariffs on Chinese EVs ranging from 17% to 35.3% on top of the existing 10% import duty, potentially reaching a total of 45.3% for some manufacturers. The totals depended on the degree of cooperation with an EU investigation. Schmidt expects EV sales in Western Europe to rise 30% to 2.52 million in 2025 to account for 21.5% of the market compared with 16.7% in 2024. Western Europe includes the big five markets of Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Spain. Autovista Group, part of expects sales of EVs in all of Europe of 2.5 million in 2025 and 8.5 million in 2030, closer to UBS's old forecast. At an Autovista Group webinar, chief economist Christof Engelskirchen referring to pluses and minuses of EV sales development, said sales forecasts remained intact, PHEVs are regaining popularity, while buyers of EVs express strong intent to repurchase. On the negative side, sales were getting harder because early adopters were now satisfied. In the second-hand market the difficulty in establishing the quality of batteries was holding sales back. The high cost of public charging was also a negative. PHEV icon. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. Electric energy and fuel engine. Vector stock ... More illustration. An article in the Sunday Times of London quoted a report from energy consultant BFY Group that said using rapid public charging in Britain could cost up to 10 times more than home charging. This is the case in Britain where home charging carries a lower rate of tax, and an accusation that's repeated across Europe. The British Parliament's Public Accounts Committee has said this cost disparity is probably the biggest challenge to the electric vehicle transition in Britain. The webinar was told the EU's CO2 emissions rules, designed to force new car buyers to only have a zero emissions choice by 2035, was coming under pressure. This year, a tightening in the rules was changed to allow compliance over two more years. Political pressure was building to water down the rules and extend the use of ICE beyond 2035. One idea being pushed by green lobbyists is 'social leasing," which uses subsidies to help those on lower incomes buy electric. France had a scheme, which expired last year, that allowed participants to lease an EV for a monthly fee between 100 euros and 150 euros ($114 to $170), with the right to buy or renew after three years. Brussels-based Transport & Environment said social leasing could provide affordable EVs for 3 million households in Europe. It could be financed by revenues from the EU's carbon market and Social Climate Fund, T&E said, quoting data from the Oko-Institut. France is expected to renew the program later this year. 'To put an end to dependence on fossil fuel cars and the threat of rising costs, many households need help switching to electric cars. EVs remain unaffordable even for middle income households, while purchase subsidies too often benefit those who don't need them. Social leasing can make clean, cheap-to-run electric cars a reality for millions who are otherwise stuck with expensive polluting vehicles,' said Marie Chéron, e-mobility specialist at T&E.
Forbes
27-05-2025
- Automotive
- Forbes
China EV Europe Growth Slows While 'Social Leasing' Gains Support
Lease a car Europe's electric vehicle sales are accelerating again, but China's EV growth there has slowed while its plug-in hybrids have a new lease of life. The era of easy sales to so-called early adopters has come to an end while an idea to use government funds to subsidize EV leases for the poor is gaining support. Forecasters still expect a healthy overall increase in the European EV market in 2025, although longer-term targets based on European Union CO2 emissions rules still look impossibly high. Investment bank UBS slashed almost two million EVs from its sales forecast for Europe in 2030. That now stands at 6.4 million EV sales in Europe in 2030, down from 8.3 million forecast in February for a market share of 37.8% (48.6%). According to Schmidt Automotive Research, China's EV market share in Western Europe held steady at 1.6% in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter, while is sales of ICE, hybrid and PHEVs accelerated to 3.2% from 2.2%. European EV makers might be feeling less pressure, but it's not really good news for them. 'The threat is now coming from ICE, hybrids and PHEVs, which avoid anti-subsidy tariffs, in place since November. However, unfortunately for incumbents, this is where high profit margins are still made and where the transition (to EVs) funds were due to be harvested from,' said Matt Schmidt, founder of Schmidt Automotive Research. Last October the EU raised tariffs on Chinese EVs ranging from 17% to 35.3% on top of the existing 10% import duty, potentially reaching a total of 45.3% for some manufacturers. The totals depended on the degree of cooperation with the EU investigation. Schmidt expects EV sales in Western Europe to rise 30% to 2.52 million in 2025 to account for 21.5% of the market compared with 16.7% in 2024. Western Europe includes the big five markets of Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Spain. Autovista Group, part of expects sales of EVs in all of Europe of 2.5 million in 2025 and 8.5 million in 2030, closer to UBS's old forecast. At an Autovista Group webinar, chief economist Christof Engelskirchen referring to pluses and minuses of EV sales development, said sales forecasts remained intact, PHEVs are regaining popularity, while buyers of EVs express strong intent to repurchase. On the negative side, sales were getting harder because early adopters were now satisfied. In the second-hand market the difficulty in establishing the quality of batteries was holding sales back. The high cost of public charging was also a negative. PHEV icon. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. Electric energy and fuel engine. Vector stock ... More illustration. An article in the Sunday Times of London quoted a report from energy consultant BFY Group that said using rapid public charging in Britain could cost up to 10 times more than home charging. This is the case in Britain where home charging carries a lower rate of tax, and an accusation that's repeated across Europe. The British Parliament's Public Accounts Committee has said this cost disparity is probably the biggest challenge to the electric vehicle transition in Britain. The webinar was told the EU's CO2 emissions rules, designed to force new car buyers to only have a zero emissions choice by 2035, was coming under pressure. This year, a tightening in the rules was changed to allow compliance over two more years. Political pressure was building to water down the rules and extend the use of ICE beyond 2035. One idea being pushed by green lobbyists is 'Social Leasing', which uses subsidies to help those on lower incomes buy electric. France had a scheme which expired last year that allowed participants to lease an EV for just a monthly fee of between 100 euros and 150 euros ($114 to $170), with the right to buy or renew after 3 years. Brussels-based Transport & Environment said Social Leasing could provide affordable EVs for 3 million households in Europe. It could be financed by revenues from the EU's carbon market and Social Climate Fund, T&E said, quoting data from the Oko-Institut. France is expected to renew the scheme later this year. 'To put an end to dependence on fossil fuel cars and the threat of rising costs, many households need help switching to electric cars. EVs remain unaffordable even for middle income households, while purchase subsidies too often benefit those who don't need them. Social leasing can make clean, cheap-to-run electric cars a reality for millions who are otherwise stuck with expensive polluting vehicles,' said Marie Chéron, e-mobility specialist at T&E.
Forbes
27-03-2025
- Automotive
- Forbes
Little BYD Surf Debuts In Europe As ICE Reprieve Pressure Mounts
The European Union's sales targets for electric vehicles in 2030 and 2035 look impossible, despite the imminent arrival of EVs like BYD of China's cut-price Surf, likely to be affordable, finally, for average wage earners. Political pressure is mounting on the EU to end its insistence that EV is the only available technology in 2035's new car market. The case for alternative technologies is gaining ground as Chinese competition accelerates in a market where European EVs lag and overall sales are expected to stagnate in 2025. Europe's automotive industry needs to accelerate sales but most EV sedans and SUVs have been very expensive starting at around €30,000 ($32,500 after tax). Cheaper EVs are arriving into the marketplace this year at around €20,000 ($21,500), but for the CO2 emission-inspired targets to be met, a mass market for EVs is required. The BYD Surf, on sale in China for about $10,000 where it is called the Seagull, is expected to be priced from around €15,000 ($16,200) after being Europeanized with improved safety standards and equipment. Will this segment spur a true mass market for EVs? Experts have their doubts. The Surf will join the Dacia Spring and Leapmotor TO3 with prices starting at around €15,000. It will go on sale in Britain and across Europe in June. BYD declined to reveal whether Surfs might eventually be manufactured in Europe or offer any more details such as sales targets and equipment. Dacia is Renault's mass-market brand and the Spring is made in China. Leapmotor of China, allied with Stellantis, has started to make vehicles in Europe. These bargain basement EVs will have an early start over Volkswagen's contender in this category, the ID.1, not expected on dealer lots until 2027. Europe's CO2 rules are designed to force its citizens who want to buy a new car in 2035 to only have an all-electric option. By 2030 around 80% of new car sales will have to be electric. Britain's zero emission rules roughly mirror the EU timetable. The current level of EV sales in Europe suggests this goal is unobtainable. For the current year, Schmidt Automotive Research expects an EV market share of just over 20% on sales of 2.7 million in Western Europe, compared with 1.9 million in 2024. Forecasters for Europe in 2030 include EV Volumes' 61.6% share, and French auto consultancy Inovev's 40%. Investment researcher Jefferies has cut more than two million sales from its 2030. Its 2030 forecast now stands at 4.7 million for a market share of 35%. In 2035 it estimates a 50% EV market share, when the EU says it must be 100%. Schmidt Automotive Research predicts 54.0% in 2030 for Western Europe. EU member states, led by big automaking countries like Germany, Italy and Czechia have been pressurizing the EU Commission to dilute the rules. The Commission reacted by allowing the tougher CO2 emission rules for 2025 to be eased by averaging them out over two more years. But opponents of the ICE-free 2035 target want more. They want the Commission to acknowledge that even this slightly diluted regime poses an existential threat to the European auto industry. They want 'technological neutrality'. This means automakers would be allowed to use what they consider to be the best way to cut CO2 emissions without the need to eliminate combustion engines entirely. This would also mean the use of e-fuels - synthetic fuels made from renewable electricity, water, and carbon dioxide, and hybrids, plug-in hybrids, range extenders and fuel cells. The EU should have known when it created the zero emissions target for 2035 in the last decade that its auto industry was ill-prepared, but the Chinese are ready to go. Experts say that unless the EU relents, it will destroy much of its economically vital auto manufacturing industry. Green lobby groups like Brussels-based Transport & Environment are implacable opponents of this, and insist that the regulations are met, and that the industry can meet them. The EPP Group in the European Parliament agrees that without relaxation of the rules the European industry is doomed. European Parliamentarian Jens Gieseke, the EPP Group's lead negotiator on the automotive industry, said this after the EU Commission revealed its action plan for reviving the industry earlier in March, which also recommended easing the 2025 rules. 'The crisis in the automotive sector is deep, there can be no more business as usual. The automotive action plan is a first step, but we need concrete actions, not just cosmetic changes. The industry needs flexibility, clear targets, and a commitment to technological neutrality. We call for a revision of the internal combustion engine ban before the end of this year,' Gieseke said. The EPP is the biggest political grouping in the European Parliament composed of national center-right parties such as Germany's Christian Democrats and Spain's Popular Party. Henning Dransfeld, director of Strategy & Industry Solutions at Infor, said this top-down approach and the aim of 100% EV sales in 2035 from the EU is wrong and won't work. He said current EV technology won't provide vehicles for all sections of the population. An early selling point for EV's – much cheaper to charge than equivalent ICE vehicles – has been ended in Germany at least as energy prices are now so high. 'Putting an end to all alternatives would end mobility for many people,' Dransfeld said. 'There's not one simple route to EVs, and other technologies might offer an alternative path. It's maybe not sensible to say all other technologies are forbidden,' he said in a telephone interview. Would a small, cheap vehicle like the Seagull, shortly to become the Surf, bridge the gap between the EU demands and forecasters predictions? 'Just being cheap won't corner the market. It's horses for courses. Some are very good but some are not.' he said. The early demise of diesel was also a mistake. He said German and French-made diesels were very economical at high autoroute speeds, an area where EVs simply can't compete. The speed limit on most European highways is 130 km/h (81 mph). 'In the bid for reduced global emissions of CO2, diesels should be a weapon in the armoury,' Dransfeld said. Nikhil Kaitwade, senior research manager at Newark, Delaware-based Future Market Insights, agrees that EV sales in Europe are unlikely to reach the required around 80% market share by 2030. The Surf is the latest and cheapest EV to hit the market. Is there room for an even cheaper, stripped-down say sub-$10,000 vehicle with around 100 miles of range, maximum 60 mph top speed, carrying 2 adults and 2 children? Would this lift volume quickly to get closer to the EU target? Kaitwade doesn't think so. 'The European car market is skewed towards premium electric vehicles, with very few options available for mid-range and economic options. This is primarily due to consumer preference towards comfort features and launch of new vehicles to attract them towards EVs which are at par with the conventional vehicles,' Kaitwade said. 'It seems unlikely that the market will see the launch or entry of sub €10,000/$10,000 vehicles. The operating range of vehicles, safety features, battery costing, compliance requirements and duties for imported vehicles will be pressing issues to maintain profitability and win consumer confidence for such cars,' Kaitwade said. The BYD Seagull, also known as the BYD Dolphin Mini in some markets, is BYD's cheapest and best-selling car in China. Prices start at just under $10,000 there. BYD sold 348,683 Seagulls between January and October 2024. Currently there is no European produced competitor. Expect to see European carmakers seek alliances with Chinese companies to make sure they don't miss out on the emerging mass market for EVs.
