Latest news with #SchoolofIndustrialandLaborRelations
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's attacks on international student enrollment could ultimately shake the economy
The Trump administration's statements and actions aimed at curtailing the number of international students in the US have sent a chill of uncertainty through higher education institutions. These American schools have become more reliant on the higher tuition paid by international students as state and federal support has waned. Now, their financial viability could be shaken. That could have a negative impact on US-born students seeking a college education, and economists and researchers warn that the ripple effects could extend well beyond the lawns of college campuses: A drop-off in international students could reverberate through the US labor market and broader economy in years to come. 'The skill premium, as we call it, is very large, which is why highly educated workers earn so much more,' said Michael Lovenheim, a labor economist and professor at Cornell University's School of Industrial and Labor Relations. International students, he added, 'generate not only returns to themselves through higher wages, but they work in sectors that generate economic growth, they start businesses, they work in high-growth areas that generate more productivity and increase [Gross Domestic Product].' And that economic impact, he said, is 'positive and large.' During the 2023-24 academic year, 1.1 million international students were credited with supporting 378,175 jobs, half of which were at colleges and universities and the rest being in other sectors such as housing, food service, retail, transportation and insurance, according to NAFSA: Association of International Educators. All told, that amounted to a record-high economic contribution of $43.8 billion, according to the member-based organization. Reducing enrollment or hurting international students' desire to study in America, he added, will 'lessen our economic competitiveness in the medium run and maybe the long run as well, depending on how things play out.' The Trump administration's efforts to limit international students have already affected the Global Migration Center, an interdisciplinary research center at the University of California, Davis, said center director Giovanni Peri, an economist and UC-Davis professor who has researched the economic impacts of international migration. 'The new cohort of students that are coming (from other countries), we've already lost a few of them because of the uncertainty of the funding and the visa that we're providing,' Peri told CNN in an interview. 'A couple of people who were from Europe decided to go to England.' And the international students currently conducting research at the center are experiencing hardships as well, he added. 'They are really struggling with their funding; they are not traveling internationally. A couple of my students could not go to international conferences in the last couple o f months because they were worried they would not have been able to come back' because of worries they'd get stopped at the border, Peri said. The research itself, he added, has become harder with reduced funding. 'It took a long time for the US to establish itself as, by far, the strongest university environment in the world,' he said. 'But things change, and things can change in a more permanent way.' If international students elect to instead study in Canada, Europe, Australia or other regions, that loss will ultimately damage the US economy, he said. 'The rate at which foreign students create firms in the United States after graduation is about four times as large as the rate at which Americans create,' Peri said, citing his research on the topic. 'So, there will be fewer companies created. There will be fewer scientists and engineers to fill other companies in the US; there will be less growth of companies, jobs, and lower income in many local economies.' The potential business generation effect already is hampered by immigration restrictions or challenges, Peri noted. In an earlier study, he and his colleagues found that because of immigration and visa restrictions, only 20% of international US Master's graduates remained in the US and worked for at least two years. There have been legislative proposals to give a green card to students who earn a degree in the US (a policy that Trump publicly supported), Peri said, adding that 'not only this has not happened, but we have made several steps in the opposite direction.' 'This is now a completely different world, but this idea of students who study in the US should be able, if the company makes an offer, to have a visa had such a consensus that was so broad and so bipartisan,' he said. 'Because everybody saw that the US helped these students and this human capital to be created and that some of the benefits could stay in the US if there is an option.' If the Trump administration's policies and approach toward international students don't change significantly, these negative consequences could be felt in the broader US economy in two to three years, he added. Not excusing the 'brutality' of the Trump administration's approach, recent events could drive a meaningful debate around the internationalization of the American student body, David Bell, a history professor at Princeton, wrote Tuesday in a New York Times opinion piece. Bell noted that 1.1 million international students enrolled in the 2023-2024 school year — four times the enrollment 45 years ago. 'Like many large social changes, this one happened without much conscious planning or debate,' he wrote. 'Foreign students kept applying in ever greater numbers, and universities happily admitted them, since non-Americans receive merit- and need-based financial assistance at much lower rates than Americans do. It has taken Donald Trump's crude and vengeful swipe at Harvard to draw much attention to the subject.' In a follow-up interview with CNN, Bell noted the potential trade-offs with expanding international enrollment: On one hand, universities can serve as engines for future economic growth and further global relationships; on the other hand, universities potentially could fall short when serving homegrown applicants. 'The past couple of decades, the trend has been very, very strongly toward a steady increase in the number of international students, and I think it may be worth asking whether we should be continuing with that increase, or should we keep (enrollment) at the current level or even decrease the level of international students slightly,' Bell said. 'Not doing anything precipitous, not doing anything brutal as the administration seems to be attempting to do, but simply keeping an eye on the situation and recognizing the trade-offs.'
CNN
4 days ago
- Business
- CNN
Trump's attacks on international student enrollment could ultimately shake the economy
The Trump administration's statements and actions aimed at curtailing the number of international students in the US have sent a chill of uncertainty through higher education institutions. These American schools have become more reliant on the higher tuition paid by international students as state and federal support has waned. Now, their financial viability could be shaken. That could have a negative impact on US-born students seeking a college education, and economists and researchers warn that the ripple effects could extend well beyond the lawns of college campuses: A drop-off in international students could reverberate through the US labor market and broader economy in years to come. 'The skill premium, as we call it, is very large, which is why highly educated workers earn so much more,' said Michael Lovenheim, a labor economist and professor at Cornell University's School of Industrial and Labor Relations. International students, he added, 'generate not only returns to themselves through higher wages, but they work in sectors that generate economic growth, they start businesses, they work in high-growth areas that generate more productivity and increase [Gross Domestic Product].' And that economic impact, he said, is 'positive and large.' During the 2023-24 academic year, 1.1 million international students were credited with supporting 378,175 jobs, half of which were at colleges and universities and the rest being in other sectors such as housing, food service, retail, transportation and insurance, according to NAFSA: Association of International Educators. All told, that amounted to a record-high economic contribution of $43.8 billion, according to the member-based organization. Reducing enrollment or hurting international students' desire to study in America, he added, will 'lessen our economic competitiveness in the medium run and maybe the long run as well, depending on how things play out.' The Trump administration's efforts to limit international students have already affected the Global Migration Center, an interdisciplinary research center at the University of California, Davis, said center director Giovanni Peri, an economist and UC-Davis professor who has researched the economic impacts of international migration. 'The new cohort of students that are coming (from other countries), we've already lost a few of them because of the uncertainty of the funding and the visa that we're providing,' Peri told CNN in an interview. 'A couple of people who were from Europe decided to go to England.' And the international students currently conducting research at the center are experiencing hardships as well, he added. 'They are really struggling with their funding; they are not traveling internationally. A couple of my students could not go to international conferences in the last couple of months because they were worried they would not have been able to come back' because of worries they'd get stopped at the border, Peri said. The research itself, he added, has become harder with reduced funding. 'It took a long time for the US to establish itself as, by far, the strongest university environment in the world,' he said. 'But things change, and things can change in a more permanent way.' If international students elect to instead study in Canada, Europe, Australia or other regions, that loss will ultimately damage the US economy, he said. 'The rate at which foreign students create firms in the United States after graduation is about four times as large as the rate at which Americans create,' Peri said, citing his research on the topic. 'So, there will be fewer companies created. There will be fewer scientists and engineers to fill other companies in the US; there will be less growth of companies, jobs, and lower income in many local economies.' The potential business generation effect already is hampered by immigration restrictions or challenges, Peri noted. In an earlier study, he and his colleagues found that because of immigration and visa restrictions, only 20% of international US Master's graduates remained in the US and worked for at least two years. There have been legislative proposals to give a green card to students who earn a degree in the US (a policy that Trump publicly supported), Peri said, adding that 'not only this has not happened, but we have made several steps in the opposite direction.' 'This is now a completely different world, but this idea of students who study in the US should be able, if the company makes an offer, to have a visa had such a consensus that was so broad and so bipartisan,' he said. 'Because everybody saw that the US helped these students and this human capital to be created and that some of the benefits could stay in the US if there is an option.' If the Trump administration's policies and approach toward international students don't change significantly, these negative consequences could be felt in the broader US economy in two to three years, he added. Not excusing the 'brutality' of the Trump administration's approach, recent events could drive a meaningful debate around the internationalization of the American student body, David Bell, a history professor at Princeton, wrote Tuesday in a New York Times opinion piece. Bell noted that 1.1 million international students enrolled in the 2023-2024 school year — four times the enrollment 45 years ago. 'Like many large social changes, this one happened without much conscious planning or debate,' he wrote. 'Foreign students kept applying in ever greater numbers, and universities happily admitted them, since non-Americans receive merit- and need-based financial assistance at much lower rates than Americans do. It has taken Donald Trump's crude and vengeful swipe at Harvard to draw much attention to the subject.' In a follow-up interview with CNN, Bell noted the potential trade-offs with expanding international enrollment: On one hand, universities can serve as engines for future economic growth and further global relationships; on the other hand, universities potentially could fall short when serving homegrown applicants. 'The past couple of decades, the trend has been very, very strongly toward a steady increase in the number of international students, and I think it may be worth asking whether we should be continuing with that increase, or should we keep (enrollment) at the current level or even decrease the level of international students slightly,' Bell said. 'Not doing anything precipitous, not doing anything brutal as the administration seems to be attempting to do, but simply keeping an eye on the situation and recognizing the trade-offs.'
USA Today
02-04-2025
- Automotive
- USA Today
Trump tariffs are here. Why these people are buying new cars now
Trump tariffs are here. Why these people are buying new cars now Donald Trump's auto tariffs go into effect Wednesday. Some buyers have rushed to finalize their car purchase before anticipated price increases, but is it the right move? Show Caption Hide Caption Should you buy a car before auto tariffs go into effect? President Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and key auto parts. Here's what it means for consumers and automakers. Jessica Valor had been casually car-hunting since September with the goal of upgrading from her 12-year-old Mini Cooper this summer. Then auto tariffs set to go into effect Wednesday sped up her timeline. A project manager in the technology industry in Houston, Valor had her eye on a 2025 Toyota RAV4 Limited Hybrid in blueprint blue with a tan interior. The only hitch? It's made in Japan and would be subject to a heavy tariff. She negotiated a price below invoice and drove the car off the dealer's lot two weeks ago. 'The thought of it being out of reach come June or July made it a little easier to pull the trigger now,' Valor said. She is not alone. The dealership told her it is seeing a noticeable increase in foot traffic as car buyers try to get ahead of the 25% increase on vehicles and parts produced outside the United States. President Donald Trump's tariffs are expected to significantly increase the prices of new vehicles. Higher prices for new cars are also expected to raise used car prices, though it's unclear when consumers can expect price hikes with lots still lined with cars and trucks that were not subject to the tariffs. 'I think you're starting to see a little more panic and concern about the tariff,' said Art Wheaton, director of labor studies at Cornell University's School of Industrial and Labor Relations and a transportation industries specialist. That concern drove Jennifer Garrett of Arlington, Texas, to rush her purchase of a new Hyundai Elantra. Right before the COVID-19 pandemic, Garrett was in the market for a secondhand Elantra. 'I was lackadaisical. I was not sure what color I wanted. Then used cars shot up $2,000 overnight,' Garrett said, making a car too expensive on her income from disability. For years, she relied on Uber and Lyft. 'I didn't want the same thing to happen again,' Garrett said. "But I still would have rather taken my time to find the right used car." Tariffs top of mind for car buyers Data from car-shopping app CoPilot found supply on dealership lots has dropped 'significantly' since March 23, especially among foreign-manufactured vehicles. CEO Pat Ryan said the data signals more shoppers rushing to buy before a price increase. As of Sunday, supply for the Chevrolet Blazer, which is assembled in Mexico, fell 24%, according to CoPilot. The Volkswagen Taos, also assembled in Mexico, saw supply drop 20%. "Consumers are facing the reality of President Trump's campaign promise of tariffs, and lately, it's been one of the first things on their mind when buying a car,' Ryan said in an emailed statement. Justin Emerson, a salesperson at an Audi dealership outside of Phoenix, said he helped one tariff-concerned couple purchase a car the day after Trump announced the upcoming auto tariffs. Used cars in particular have been selling fast in recent weeks, he said. While his store typically holds 28 to 35 used vehicles, 'I'm down to half that,' he told USA TODAY. Other buyers anticipating steep tariffs made their purchases in recent weeks and months. Nicole Foster, a healthcare administrator from Houston, was not in the market for a new car but said talk of looming tariffs changed her mind, especially with her car warranty up at the end of 2025. She traded in her 2018 Volkswagen Tiguan for a 2024 model in December, before Trump was sworn in, to get ahead of any tariff-related price hikes for imported car parts. 'The day I saw it, I signed for it,' she said. 'Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't have done that.' Chris Stagner, 48 of Los Angeles, said tariff talk and political action from Trump advisor and Tesla CEO Elon Musk prompted him to trade in his 2023 Model X in early March. 'I decided I no longer wanted to be associated with the brand,' he said. Stagner said trading in a newer electric vehicle may not have been the wisest financial move, but he wanted to get ahead of any price increase. He now drives a GMC Sierra electric truck. Riley Brown, who works in financial services in Jacksonville, Florida, had been paying close attention to Trump's rhetoric on tariffs. His 2013 Toyota Prius had nearly 170,000 miles on it, and he knew he either had to buy a car right away or hope his Prius didn't have any major issues for at least the next four years. 'I was extremely wary of the election, and Trump's economic policies absolutely had an impact on my decision to get a new car,' said Brown. 'I knew it was only a matter of time before basically everything got even more expensive.' In search of a reliable ride, a few weeks ago he chose a peppy 2025 Hyundai Elantra Hybrid with a 10-year warranty and 2.99% financing on a five-year loan. The tariffs on cars and auto parts announced March 26 'validated my decision,' he said. Other buyers are deferring car purchases because of tariffs. Tom Hewitt, a widower and retired insurance manager from Trenton, New Jersey, got that 'new car itch' in September. He kicked the tires on dozens of models before narrowing the field to a 2026 Honda Passport. But with few deals offered at dealerships overrun by buyers trying to get ahead of the Trump tariffs, he ultimately decided to postpone the purchase. He says he'd much rather put money into repairing the cars he has than pay sky-high sticker prices. 'Take care of your car and your car will take care of you' is his philosophy – an oft-repeated mantra of savvy car owners. Staying on the sidelines won't shield car owners from rising prices. Imported auto parts will be affected by tariffs, experts say. Insurance premiums will also rise as repairs become more costly, they said. 'You're going to run into all of these (expenses) that are directly impacted by the cost of tariffs on vehicles new and used,' Wheaton said. 'Buckle your seat belts.' Tariff impacts 'significant and nearly immediate' Consumers have been grappling with higher car prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, with February's average new car price of roughly $48,000 up 25% from five years prior, according to Kelley Blue Book. Now, analysts say prices are set to see another dramatic hike. Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives says the average price of cars could increase anywhere from $5,000 to $10,000 'out of the gates.' Wheaton of Cornell says some non-luxury vehicles could see prices go up as much as $20,000 if automakers pass on tariff costs in full. The impacts could be 'significant and nearly immediate,' Wheaton told USA TODAY. It will take time for vehicles impacted by tariffs to arrive on lots, but Wheaton said dealerships will be expected to drop incentives even sooner, knowing demand is surging and incoming vehicles will cost more. 'If you were going to buy a vehicle and get a $3,000 rebate, now it may not have a rebate, or now it may say $500. So it (tariffs) can almost immediately go into effect, even if they don't change the MSRP,' he said. The Trump administration has indicated that any price increase will be worth it. Trump told NBC News Saturday he "couldn't care less" if tariffs raise the price of vehicles. 'I hope they raise their prices, because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars. We have plenty,' Trump said. Roughly half of new car inventory is assembled in the U.S., but even those cars rely on imported auto imports that may be subject to tariffs. Ives called the concept of a U.S. automaker with 100% of parts from the U.S. a 'fictional tale,' and said it 'would take years to make this concept a reality.' "Every automaker in the world will have to raise prices in some form selling into the U.S.," he said in a Monday note. Advice for car buyers ahead of Trump tariffs Despite looming price increases, auto experts cautioned against panic-buying a car, especially as some are not convinced the auto tariffs will hold. 'If I was already in the marketplace, I might speed up the research process, and I might just head down that road a little earlier than I was going to before,' said Brian Moody, executive editor for Kelley Blue Book. But 'I wouldn't necessarily commit dollars and cents, basing a decision on headlines.' Joseph Yoon, consumer insights analyst at Edmunds, agreed that panic-buying is the wrong move. But for buyers already looking to buy a car within the next couple of weeks, it may be worth making the purchase sooner rather than later. 'Maybe pull your timeline up a couple days,' Yoon said. 'Especially if the car you're looking to buy is already available on the lot.' Wheaton of Cornell advised anyone thinking about buying a new car within the next six to 12 months to consider speeding up their purchase. Because it will take time to cycle in new vehicles, he said buyers should have at least 30 days before imports hit with tariffs begin to take over dealership lots. 'It's a major investment. You want to make sure you get the right one that fits your personal needs,' he said. But 'the longer you wait, the less available inventory you have (of pre-tariff vehicles) on the lot.'
