Latest news with #SchorkGroup
Bloomberg
10 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Iran Won't Close Strait of Hormuz, Schork Says
Steven Schork, Schork Group principal and editor, says he does not think Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz because it would hurt India and China, two of their biggest oil export clients. He is on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Israel–Iran: Oil investors shouldn't expect 'status quo'
Oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) slide as investors weigh the impact of the Israel–Iran conflict. The Schork Group principal, Stephen Schork, joins Market Domination to take a closer look at the oil market and the impact on investors. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Oil slipping on a report that Iran may want to de-escalate the conflict with Israel. Iran signaling it's seeking to de-escalate those hostilities with Israel and negotiate looking to resume talks over its nuclear programs. All this according to the Wall Street Journal. For more on what this all means for oil, let's get to short group principal Stephen Short. Steve, it's good to see you here. So, obviously, the oil market very closely following the back and forth there. Um what we have seen seemingly thus far is not a huge disruption to Iran's production capacity and export capacity. Is that the right way to be reading it here? That's correct, Julie. It's clear that the Israelis have a strategic mission. They do not want to disrupt Iran's ability to produce and export crude oil. Uh they're playing it from two-fold. That is to say if they had gone after the oil fields, you're going to drive oil prices well above $100 and whatever good faith you have with allies around the world, you run that risk of turning them against you. Two, I think it is Israel's goal for regime change in Tehran and if you do see that, you would want a new friendly government and ability to earn export income. So they're not going after the production. So you are correct. There is and there does not seem to be or will be a disruption to the flow of crude oil. Israel instead is going after Iran's antiquated refinery system. So that will drive up costs for the Iranian consumer, thereby fomenting further descent amongst the population that is against the theocracy there and that's causing more unrest and hopefully from Israeli, well, from everyone's standpoint, sows the seed for regime change in Iran. Stephen, the key here, correct me if I'm wrong because you are the guru here, but the key here, is it not, is the straight of Hormuz, which is is still flowing right now. What would it mean though, if there was a disruption there, Stephen? Uh that would be a significant disruption. One quarter of the world's seaborne, waterborne tanker oil that is traded, transits the straight of Hormuz. So that is a threat. Iran has threatened that, but I put that chance at virtually zero. It is mutually destructive for Iran because if they blockade it, that means they can't even sell their own oil. And now that we have another, the Nimitz carrier group moving into the region, we have the fifth fleet already in the region. Any sort of attempt to blockade uh these straight of Hormuz, I think would be uh if it ever got to that point, would not last. So I think at this point it's just strictly brinkmanship uh and rhetoric on the part of Tehran. So all of this being said, Steve, can oil investors and therefore sort of a by ripple effect, equity investors, safely, maybe not ignore this, but you know, sort of assume this that this is going to be the status quo for the near term unless something dramatic changes? Well, I think that would be a tremendous mistake to assume that we're going to see the status quo. You have seen something now in the Middle East we've never seen before. Israel has attacked and destroyed most of Iran's nuclear capabilities. Iran in kind has attempted, has yet to succeed, but has attempted to go after Israel's nuclear facilities at its plant in Dimona. So we are looking at and we are on the cusp and it is just not Iraq and Iran. It's just not the Middle East. Let's face it. Let's not be naive. This is an event that that trend that goes beyond this is after the West, Europe and the United States. So no, I think it would be highly unwise to ignore what is going on, given that I do think this is the greatest uh event to roil oil markets or the potential therefore since Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August of 1990. Sign in to access your portfolio
