19-05-2025
Scotland needs migration more than the rest of the UK. Here's why
An ageing population, a low birth rate, and successive Westminster Government's who are hostile to immigration, could pose an existential threat to the country's future, particularly in rural areas.
Last week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer prompted outrage by describing the UK as becoming an 'island of strangers' and moving his Government's immigration policy further to the right.
But Scotland has its specific problems, and while powers over migration are reserved to Westminster, it leaves little room to address the issue.
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The last Scottish Census revealed that if it hadn't been for migration, Scotland's population would have declined.
Academics told The National that there is demonstrable evidence that Scotland needs migration more than other parts of the UK.
Equalities Minister Kaukab Stewart, whose portfolio includes population and migration, said Scottish needs were 'totally ignored' by the UK Government.
'In about a third of our local authorities, populations are actually declining in real terms,' Dr David McCollum, senior lecturer at St Andrews University, told The National.
'We've got an aging population, lower fertility rates in the UK, we've got a more dispersed population, so Scotland arguably needs migration more than other parts of the UK.
(Image: Dr David McCollum) 'However, as migration remains reserved to Westminster, Scotland has very little control over immigration.'
Rural areas, McCollum (above) adds, are 'top heavy in the sense there's lots of older people in these places'.
There are higher needs for care workers, and to fill roles in hospitality and other seasonal industries such as hospitality, tourism, agriculture, fisheries and others.
'It would probably be a bit simplistic to say migration, potentially would solve this, but certainly in the short term, it would prevent the most severe implications of this demographic decline in Scotland,' he added.
Brexit has also undoubtedly had an impact on migration to Scotland. Dr Anna Gawlewicz, senior lecturer at the University of Glasgow, conducted research looking at rural communities and migration.
"Migration is very important," she said.
'Migrants also contribute, not only to the labour force, but also to the community more broadly.
'One thing that we found in our research was that apart from contributing hugely to all those sectors [care, hospitality, agriculture] migrant workers also contribute significantly to local communities.
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After Brexit, the number of migrants coming from the EU were replaced by those who are from further afield, such as Central Asia and Africa.
'Migrants from those places are viewed as more disenfranchised because they often come on very kind of temporary, restrictive contracts and restrictive visas, on specific governmental programs,' she explained.
'For example, the Seasonal Worker schemes, and because of that, they don't really have opportunities to settle and they don't have the opportunities to contribute to local communities.'
In the last Census, Scotland's population increased by 2.7% to 5,436,600, hitting a record high. However, the National Records of Scotland has previously said that without migration, the population of Scotland would have decreased by around 49,800 since 2011.
In rural areas, such as the Highlands, Dumfries and Galloway, and island communities, the impact of population decline is even more stark.
Dumfries and Galloway's population was 145,502 in 1981, and despite some growth spurts, in 2021 it was only 146,250. That's an increase of only 748 people in the space of 40 years.
In the Highlands, the population had a steady growth from 1981 when it was 194,903. However, it has slowed in recent years with 232,730 people in 2011, 234,570 in 2016, and 235,850 in 2021.
Stewart, SNP MSP and Equalities Minister, told The National that Scotland certainly has 'distinct' challenges, with migration currently the 'only maintenance' of the population size.
'One of the aims that we have as a Government is to build cohesive communities and we can't do that unless we have all sorts of people, including with families, that are coming and staying,' she explained.
(Image: PA) Stewart (above) told how she had taken part in discussions with the UK Government about various visa pilot schemes that would help to address Scotland's challenges
'The new Government were very keen on resetting the relationship and listening to us,' she said.
'Unfortunately, the evidence is quite clear that they haven't listened to us, and in fact in certain areas, not only have they maintained the status quo, but they've actually gone backwards and an example of that is the graduate visa route.'
The minister noted the Scottish Government's New Scots refugee strategy that aims to make 'people feel welcome from day one'.
The UK Government's approach, Stewart added, 'flies in the face of it'.
We previously told how an independent Scotland would seek to be the 'polar opposite' of a 'hostile' Westminster when it comes to migration policy, according to a Scottish Government white paper.
