Latest news with #SemiannualMonetaryPolicyReport
Forbes
15 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
What To Expect From June's CPI Inflation Report
WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 9: Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States Jerome Powell speaks ... More during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress at the U.S. Capitol on July 9, 2024 in Washington, DC. Powell in earlier remarks was quoted, "we want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy." (Photo by) June's Consumer Price Index report will be released on July 15. Nowcasts project relatively low month-on-month inflation of 0.23% to 0.25%, that's according to the analysis of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. If so, that would signal continued subdued inflation. It would also be consistent with cooler inflation readings reported since February of this year. Inflation would still be running above the Federal Open Market Committee's 2% goal on an annual basis, with most inflation metrics closer to 3% than 2%. However, some of that deviation from target on an annual basis reflects rising prices between November 2024 and January 2025 and more recent readings have been more subdued. Upside Risks From Energy and Tariffs Although, cooling inflation is forecast, the report will be closely watched for the impact of tariffs. So far, tariffs have not had a material impact on CPI inflation readings, but that could change as several firms have stated they plan to raise prices in June and July. The CPI report will offer an assessment on whether that is occurring. Producer Price Indexes for May showed some moderate inflation in goods prices. That may be a leading indicator of what is coming for CPI inflation, though for now, the implied inflation appears mild. Academic studies have picked up some tariff price increases too, though again these are relatively tame. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the following about inflation risks on June 23. "Despite progress on lowering inflation, there are potential upside risks if negotiations result in higher tariffs or if firms raise goods prices independent of any tariff pass-through. Although we have not seen evidence of disruptive impacts on supply chains, changes in global trade patterns could lead to an increase in prices for goods and services. The current conflict in the Middle East or other geopolitical tensions could also lead to higher commodity prices. I am certainly attentive to these inflation risks, but I am not yet seeing a major concern, as some retailers seem unwilling to raise prices for essentials due to high price sensitivity among low-income consumers and as supply chains appear to be largely unaffected so far." Energy prices spiked in mid-June on conflict between Israel and Iran, but have now fallen back to close to earlier levels, although oil price volatility remains somewhat elevated. Energy prices matter because they impact the price of many goods and services. Housing Costs A major category for the CPI index is shelter costs. This makes up about a third of the overall series, given its importance in U.S. household budgets. Since 2023, shelter price increases have generally eased according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, which has helped bring overall CPI inflation closer to the FOMC's 2% target. To the extent shelter costs continue to cool in the coming months that may offset potential tariff impacts. The Fed's Reaction To Inflation After a brief acceleration in inflation in late 2024 which caused some concern, the FOMC has been encouraged by recent subdued inflation reports since February 2025. However, policymakers are balancing risks from potentially higher inflation against some chance of a deteriorating labor market. Assuming June delivers another tame inflation reading, then the attention of policymakers may be more focused on labor market risks. For now, jobs data has generally been robust. However, retail sales data saw a sequential decline for May, which could be a one-off datapoint or may point to some softening in the economy. Currently the CME FedWatch Tool implies a 1 in 4 chance of the FOMC cutting rates at their next meeting on July 30.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump Trade: Trump slams Powell while Fed chair appears before Congress
Catch up on the top industries and stocks that were impacted, or were predicted to be impacted, by the comments, actions and policies of President Trump with this daily recap compiled by The Fly: Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter CEASEFIRE: President Donald Trump posted to Truth Social on Monday night that there has been a 'complete and total' ceasefire between Israel and Iran. He said: 'CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR.' This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!' Israel later accused Iran of what it described as a 'severe violation' of President Donald Trump's ceasefire, a charge Iran denies, NBC News reports. Trump acknowledged that both Iran and Israel violated the ceasefire, telling a group of reporters that he is going to see if he can stop the ceasefire violations. 'We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f— they're doing,' he said. FED RATE SHOULD BE LOWER: On Monday night, President Donald Trump posted to Truth Social: 'Too Late' Jerome Powell, of the Fed, will be in Congress today in order to explain, among other things, why he is refusing to lower the Rate. Europe has had 10 cuts, we have had ZERO. No inflation, great economy – We should be at least two to three points lower. Would save the USA 800 Billion Dollars Per Year, plus. What a difference this would make. If things later change to the negative, increase the Rate. I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come. THE BOARD SHOULD ACTIVATE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!' The Fed's Jerome Powell, in comments in his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, said the U.S. economy and labor market remain in a solid position and that the effects of policy changes on the economy remain uncertain. Powell added that the ultimate tariff level will determine their impact. 'For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,' Powell said. BIG BANKS LOOK TO APPEASE OFFICIALS: Representatives from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and other large banks have recently met with officials in Republican states, including Texas and Oklahoma, to defend against allegations they refuse to do business with industries such as gun manufacturing and fossil-fuel extraction, Alexander Saeedy, AnnaMaria Andriotis, and Dylan Tokar of The Wall Street Journal report, citing people familiar with the discussions. Additionally, the banks are worried that President Trump could turn the federal government against them, with some people familiar with the matter stating the Trump administration is considering an executive order on 'debanking.' Other publicly traded companies in the space include Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and U.S. Bancorp (USB). WHATSAPP BANNED ON DEVICES: Meta's (META) WhatsApp is now banned from congressional staffers' government devices, The U.S. House's chief administrative officer informed employees on Monday, Andrew Solender of Axios reported on Monday. 'The Office of Cybersecurity has deemed WhatsApp a high-risk to users due to the lack of transparency in how it protects user data, absence of stored data encryption, and potential security risks involved with its use,' the CAO said in an email obtained by Axios. 'House staff are NOT allowed to download or keep the WhatsApp application on any House device, including any mobile, desktop, or web browser versions of its products.' The CAO said that Microsoft Teams (MSFT), iMessage (AAPL), FaceTime, Wickr, and Signal, are acceptable alternatives to WhatsApp. OIL FROM IRAN: In a Truth Social post, President Trump stated: 'China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!' Publicly traded companies in the oil space include BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Shell (SHEL) and TotalEnergies (TTE). Published first on TheFly – the ultimate source for real-time, market-moving breaking financial news. Try Now>> See the top stocks recommended by analysts >> Read More on JPM: Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue Big Banks look to appease officials in Republican states, WSJ says Walmart (WMT) Owned PhonePe Lines Up $1.5B Indian IPO JPMorgan price target raised to $240 from $236 at Morgan Stanley Why Chinese Stocks Are Fading from Wall Street Crypto Currents: Senate passes bill for stablecoin regulatory framework Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Fed's Powell signals patience on rate cuts amid economic stability
-- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated Tuesday that the central bank is prepared to maintain current interest rates while monitoring economic developments, according to his prepared remarks for the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. Powell described the U.S. economy as being in a "solid position" despite elevated uncertainty, with the unemployment rate remaining low at 4.2% in May. He noted that labor market conditions are "broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment." The Fed Chair acknowledged that inflation has "eased significantly" from its mid-2022 peaks but remains above the central bank's 2% target. Total personal consumption expenditures prices rose 2.3% for the 12 months ending in May, while core PCE prices, excluding food and energy, increased 2.6%. Powell pointed out that near-term inflation expectations have risen in recent months, with surveys indicating tariffs as the primary factor. However, longer-term expectations remain aligned with the Fed's 2% goal. The Federal Open Market Committee has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% since the beginning of the year. Powell emphasized that the Fed is "well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance." Regarding potential tariffs, Powell warned they could "push up prices and weigh on economic activity," though the effects might be a one-time shift in price levels rather than persistent inflation. He stressed the Fed's commitment to preventing "a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem." Powell noted that GDP edged down in the first quarter, reflecting swings in net exports driven by businesses importing goods ahead of potential tariffs, while private domestic final purchases grew at a solid 2.5% rate. Related articles Fed's Powell signals patience on rate cuts amid economic stability Raymond James shuffles REITs: Upgrades Essex Property Trust, downgrades MAA Citi outlines what awaits the biggest U.S. oilfield services providers in H2 Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
11-02-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Fed's Powell Says Still No Hurry to Lower Interest Rates
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell again signaled that officials will be patient before lowering borrowing costs further, saying the central bank doesn't need to rush to adjust interest rates. Powell spoke Tuesday during testimony before the Senate Banking and Housing Committee for the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. (Source: Bloomberg)
