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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Senate rankings: The 5 seats most likely to flip
The 2026 midterm cycle is already bustling with activity as Senate Republicans gear up to defend their majority and Democrats try to reverse course from a difficult few years and chart a path forward. The fields are starting to take shape as incumbents decide whether to run again, candidates launch campaigns and party leaders attempt to woo their top choices. It's all happening against the backdrop of constant action at the White House and Congress' push to enact President Trump's massive tax bill — both of which will play outsize roles in the coming cycle. Here's an early look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year. Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.) is considered the most vulnerable Democrat on the Senate map and Republicans have eagerly been awaiting the chance to win back the seat. But they were barely a quarter of the way into the cycle when Republicans got their first big piece of bad recruitment news: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) decided against a Senate bid, depriving the GOP of its top choice across the entire 2026 map. His decision scrambled the race. Not only did it deprive the GOP of a top-tier candidate in a crucial race, it also increases the chances of a bloody primary. 'Kemp is the 1:1 on the board. Full stop,' one GOP operative said. 'This is a situation where you want a primary. Where you want them to show their mettle because I just don't think that we have a clear enough indication on any of these guys to say they can do it.' Multiple Republicans indicated they expect a primary much like what happened in Ohio last year: a crowded field of B-tier candidates, many of whom will prompt more questions than answers. The field is already starting to take shape. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) is in, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is out and operatives believe Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) may follow Carter into the primary. More are likely to go for it, but none that are considered heavy hitters at this stage. Top party figures have been hoping for freshman Rep. Brian Jack (R-Ga.) to take the plunge, but few expect him to do so. There have also been murmurs around Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins and Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler — but nothing more. Republicans concede Ossoff will be to beat without Kemp, pointing to his growing war chest, battle-tested history and penchant for avoiding missteps during his term. GOP operatives, though, see openings to whack him over support for transgender women in sports and steadfast opposition to Trump. 'I am bullish on Jon Ossoff. … He's done a great job. He's centered the people of Georgia and their needs and their concerns,' Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) told The Hill, arguing that the GOP's 'one big, beautiful bill' will be an albatross at the ballot box. 'I'd hate to have to run as a Republican in this moment,' he added. If Democrats are going to make any headway toward winning back the majority, toppling Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is a must. And for now, they are waiting to find out whether Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is in or out for what would be the marquee matchup on the board. Much like Kemp in Georgia, Cooper is a popular two-term governor who would easily give his party the best chance of flipping a seat and avoiding a messy primary. Democrats are hopeful that Cooper will not follow the lead of numerous governors over the past decade who have spurned bids for the upper chamber. 'They've got to convince him that serving in the Senate is better than spending time with his family,' one Democratic operative with North Carolina ties said of party leaders. 'That's a hard sell.' Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.) has already announced a bid. Whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to face an incumbent Republican who has twice won close contests. But for Tillis, squaring off against a popular governor in a year when the mood of the country might not be in the GOP's corner would likely make it his toughest political bout yet. Adding to his issues is potential GOP primary as some conservatives continue to cry foul over his work with Democrats in recent years. But Republicans remain confident as the state's rightward tilt stayed true in November. Governors past and present also have found that running for the upper chamber is a different animal, potentially giving Tillis another boost. Does anyone want to face off with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) next year? That's the question on the minds of top politicos as Democrats struggle to find a viable candidate against the Maine centrist after the party failed spectacularly to defeat her in 2020, leaving them burned in the New England state heading into next year. The latest blow came as Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) announced he will run for his toss-up House seat once again rather than mount a statewide bid. That's leaving Democrats to pin their hopes on Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) throwing her hat in the ring — but Mills hasn't sounded overly enthusiastic about a potential bid. 'I'm not planning to do anything right now, I'm just — I'm not planning to run for anything,' Mills told a local outlet in late April. 'Things change week to week, month to month, but I'm not … at this moment, I'm not planning to run for another office.' The reticence comes after Sara Gideon vastly outraised and outspent the five-term senator in 2020, only to see her polling advantage evaporate come election day. Collins won by eight percentage points, owing in large part to her long-standing connections to the state. 'In general, for any senator who's served their state and been out there and talking to the voters and engaging them and working to solve those problems, they're going to be effective with their voters to gain their support,' said Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), who ran the Democratic Senatorial Committee during the 2020 cycle. 'From what I have seen from so many of my colleagues and Republican colleagues, that's the winning combination,' she added. Nevertheless, Maine remains a blue state and the last one to not change parties as part of the realignment that finally saw Montana and West Virginia fall into GOP hands last year. This and some troublesome polls are keeping that glimmer of hope alive for some Democrats. One Democratic operative made clear to The Hill that there remains donor interest in playing ball —- but only if a 'legit candidate' takes the plunge. It's not even halfway through the off-year and the Michigan Democratic primary is already the leader in the clubhouse to become the most contentious of the 2026 cycle as a trio of key players look to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) in the Wolverine State. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), former health director Abdul El-Sayed, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) and former Michigan state House Speaker Joe Tate have all launched bids in recent months. Stevens, the favorite of Washington Democrats, is the initial leader with 34 percent, according to a new survey released last week. That's a 12-point advantage over El-Sayed, who has Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) backing. But the presence of the two is giving Democrats agita over what is becoming a proxy battle between the party establishment and progressive forces, with that battle stretching into one over Israel and Palestine. 'It's basically a [Hillary Clinton] versus Bernie type fight,' said one Democratic operative with Michigan ties. As for McMorrow, she is the dark horse. The state senator, who has seen her star rise in recent years, is pitching herself as part of a new generation of Democrats, having said she will not back Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) for his current post. She is also using the Pete Buttigieg playbook of flooding the zone media wise. Democrats maintain they are unconcerned with a testy primary and believe it will be a net-positive come general election time. 'I've never been opposed to primaries when I was [DSCC] chair,' said Peters, who chaired the committee in both 2022 and 2024. 'A primary can be constructive. … I would hope they wouldn't cross the line and attack each other, although that's always sometimes difficult. But … a primary can really strengthen a candidate before they get into the real show.' Across the aisle, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is once again the party's top choice to become its nominee. But unlike his 2024 run, he might have a primary on his hands as Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) is moving closer to running. Of course, winning in the state will be difficult for any Republican. Michigan has not elected a Republican to the Senate in more than 30 years. New Hampshire is considered a must-win state for Democrats in 2026. And they are breathing easy despite Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's (D-N.H.) retirement as Rep. Chris Pappas' (D-N.H.) presence gives the party a top-tier candidate. Shaheen, a three-term lawmaker and ex-New Hampshire governor, has been a formidable force in the state's political scene for years and is set to leave a major void in the Democratic-leaning state. However, Democrats remain bullish that the seat will remain in the party's hands. Of all the states on this list, New Hampshire is the only one former Vice President Kamala Harris carried last year. It is also the only one, other than Georgia, that is unlikely to have a knock-out, drag out Democratic primary that could prove damaging in a general election. The major questions reside on the Republican side as former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) is eyeing a second run in the Granite state 12 years after he narrowly lost to Shaheen. According to a source familiar with the ex-senator, Brown is continuing to take a 'hard look' at a bid and has been traveling around the state, attending party events and doing his 'due diligence.' He also was spotted on Capitol Hill making the rounds in March. A decision is expected by early fall. Brown was dogged in his 2014 run over accusations that he was a carpetbagger, having run two years prior for reelection in Massachusetts. Republicans are widely expecting that attack once again, especially in contrast to the Pappas family's longstanding ties to the state. 'The problem is the Pappas family is New Hampshire,' the GOP operative said. What isn't clear is what the GOP's fallback options are in a state where they likely need everything to break right to have a chance. No Republican has nabbed a Senate seat in the state in 15 years, though the party has held the governorship since 2017. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
New York Times
10-05-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
Greene Defiantly Rules Out a Senate Run in Georgia, to the Relief of G.O.P. Leaders
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia, said on Friday that she would not run for Senate in 2026. The revelation — a huge relief to Republicans who feared she would challenge Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff and jeopardize their chance at defeating him — came 1,200 words deep into a screed against her party that Ms. Greene posted on social media on Friday night. In her tirade against the forces she blamed for standing in her way, Ms. Greene ripped the National Republican Senatorial Committee, G.O.P. consultants, pollsters, wealthy donors, the institution of the Senate and the Republican lawmakers who serve in it who she said 'sabotage Trump's agenda.' 'No, Jon Ossoff isn't the real problem,' Ms. Greene wrote in a post on X. 'He's just a vote. A pawn. No different than the Uniparty Republicans who skip key votes to attend fundraisers and let our agenda fail.' She added: 'Someone once said, 'The Senate is where good ideas go to die.' They were right. That's why I'm not running.' All eyes had tentatively turned to Ms. Greene this week after Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia, the top potential recruit for the race, announced he would not run for the seat, a decision he made public at a gathering of wealthy donors in Sea Island, Ga. Ms. Greene was a pariah within her party when she arrived in Congress in 2021 promoting conspiracy theories. But her popularity with the MAGA base has allowed her to rise and she now holds a gavel in the House. A close ally of President Trump's, Ms. Greene basically has tenure in her red district. But she is also an ambitious politician who has been vocal about her desire to hold statewide office, a move that is difficult for a hard-right election denier from a purple state represented by two Democratic senators and a Republican governor who is popular because of his contentious relationship with Mr. Trump. Ms. Greene, in contrast to Mr. Kemp, is a true believer in Mr. Trump's MAGA agenda. On Thursday, for instance, she spent her day on the House floor defending the merits of her bill to permanently rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, codifying Mr. Trump's 'America First' executive order. In her Friday night post, Ms. Greene accused the 'elites' in her party of 'trying to carefully select someone who can dress up in MAGA just enough to trick the grass roots into thinking they're one of us — someone who won't dare challenge the Republican establishment or disrupt the status quo that has failed the people time and time again.' She also implied that the Republican Senate campaign arm had discouraged her from running by disseminating polls showing that she would lose to Mr. Ossoff. (A recent poll by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution showed her trailing him by 17 points.) 'When I met with the N.R.S.C. a few weeks ago, they told me their internal polling shows any Republican can beat Ossoff,' Ms. Greene wrote. 'But now they're pushing a public poll of just 800 people claiming only certain Republicans can win. Funny how that works.' A spokesman for the senatorial committee did not immediately respond to a request for comment. There are no Republican candidates in the race yet, but Mr. Ossoff is considered the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate and the race is expected to be highly competitive. Ms. Greene appeared frustrated and angry at detractors in her own party. 'I won't fight for a team that refuses to win, that protects its weakest players, and that undermines the very people it's supposed to serve,' she wrote. 'To the elite retreaters, the consultants, and the establishment: consider this your warning.'
Fox News
10-05-2025
- Politics
- Fox News
Trump ally Marjorie Taylor Greene says she won't run for Senate while blasting Dems and fellow Republicans
Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a top House ally of President Donald Trump and a MAGA firebrand with a national following, is passing on a 2026 Senate run. The three-term conservative lawmaker who represents a solidly red district in northwest Georgia, in a lengthy statement posted to social media on Friday night, took aim at Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff, a top GOP target that Republicans view as extremely vulnerable in next year's midterm elections. But Greene saved much of her venom for fellow Republicans, many of whom feared a polarizing campaign if Taylor Greene became the party's 2026 nominee in Georgia, and for the institution of the Senate itself. "Someone once said, 'The Senate is where good ideas go to die.' They were right. That's why I'm not running," Greene wrote as she announced her decision. And Greene argued, "Here's the hard truth: the Senate doesn't work. It's designed to obstruct the will of the people and protect the Uniparty's grip on power. Nearly everything requires 60 votes to pass, and even when we have a majority, a pack of Republican Senators always votes "no" on the bills that matter most." Greene's announcement came four days after two-term Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who was the National Republican Senatorial Committee's top recruit in battleground Georgia, revealed that he would also pass on a Senate bid. The popular conservative governor, who is term-limited and prevented from seeking re-election in 2026, was the GOP's dream candidate to take on Ossoff, as Republicans aim to expand their 53-47 Senate majority in next year's elections. Greene, in her statement, claimed, "Beating Jon Ossoff? That would be easy. He's a silver-spoon progressive who's never held a real job or worried about putting a roof over his family's head." "So, Jon Ossoff, you can stop with the fundraising emails and campaign ads claiming I'm your opponent. I'm not running," she added. While criticizing Ossoff, Greene turned up the volume on her own party, including "the same elites who scoffed at me when I first ran for Congress in 2020." "Most elected Republicans, propped up by consultants and rich donors, fail to deliver on their campaign promises. Why? Because their donors and handlers don't want change. They want to protect their own interests, not yours," Greene charged. She took aim at "the Republicans who see Trump as a speed bump," and argued that "polling has become so dishonest that most people barely pay attention to it anymore. Voters are sick of the consultants who keep getting rich whether we win or lose." Greene described herself as "effective, fearless, and relentless, not because I serve the Republican Party, but because I serve the American people." But she added that "I won't fight for a team that refuses to win, that protects its weakest players, and that undermines the very people it's supposed to serve… To the elite retreaters, the consultants, and the establishment: consider this your warning." In the wake of Kemp's announcement, GOP Carter, who represents coastal Georgia, launched a Senate campaign this week. Other Georgia Republicans expressing interest in running are Reps. Mike Collins and Rich McCormick, and state Insurance Commissioner John King.
