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New York Times
2 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Can Bucks extend Giannis' prime and develop young players? Bucks mailbag, Part II
Last night, the 2025 NBA Finals got underway with the Indiana Pacers shocking the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1, winning 111-110. When the Pacers eliminated the Milwaukee Bucks from the postseason more than a month ago, it was tough to imagine Indiana would make a run to the finals. However, their journey provides an interesting backdrop for the larger questions our readers have sent, which ask me to contemplate the future of the Milwaukee franchise. Next week, we will address shorter responses to more questions, but in this mailbag, we have decided to focus on two big ideas that will have a significant impact on the Bucks moving forward. Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity. Advertisement With Giannis Antetokounmpo's downhill style of play, how many more years can he go before his knees become a problem? — Rd U. I think that is an impossible question to answer. I am not a doctor. I have no idea what Antetokounmpo's medical information looks like. Even if I did, I'd have no way of interpreting what that might mean for the potential for future injuries or when he might break down. But I think a larger, adjacent idea is interesting, so I wanted to explore that a bit. Over the weekend, my former colleague at The Athletic (and former director of basketball research for the Bucks), Seth Partnow, spent some time on Bluesky talking with people about where exactly Antetokounmpo belongs in the various tiers of NBA superstars and whether or not Antetokounmpo is still a 1A superstar alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić. While our guy, Law Murray, put him in the 1A category with SGA and Jokić, Partnow wondered if Antetokounmpo had started to hit the downslope of his absolute prime and should be dropped to 1B. Before getting into this, I would remind folks that whether Antetokounmpo is 1A or 1B, we're talking about the best players in the world, so Partnow isn't suggesting Antetokounmpo is 'washed' or anything of that nature. He is trying to articulate the small differences that separate the most elite players. In this discussion, though, I would side with Murray in my belief that Antetokounmpo is still unequivocally a 1A player, and I don't see that changing over the next few seasons. The transformation that Antetokounmpo underwent this season offensively was impressive and felt like the first step in a larger transformation that will help keep Antetokounmpo at the same level as the league's top-level superstar players for years to come. That transformation started with Antetokounmpo's shot distribution. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Bucks superstar took 35 percent of his shots from the mid-range, with 17 percent of those attempts coming on mid-range shots longer than 14 feet. The last time he came close to numbers such as those was the 2017-18 season, which was Jason Kidd's final season as coach. As Antetokounmpo continued to whittle away at how many 3-point shots he tries each season, he ended up taking only four percent of his shots from behind the 3-point line, a career low. Antetokounmpo was able to use the mid-range more often to put less stress on his body, while still taking more shots from less than five feet (12 per game) than any other player in the NBA. Advertisement On top of changing his shot distribution, Antetokounmpo also put together the best mid-range shooting season of his career. (We detailed the work behind that progress, as well as the team of coaches that Antetokounmpo put together to help him evolve his game, before the Bucks beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2024 NBA Cup Final.) With career-high shooting percentages on both short and long mid-range shots, the two-time MVP hit a career-high 43.7 percent on shots taken outside of five feet and inside the 3-point line, per Cleaning the Glass. His previous career-high was only 40.9 percent from mid-range in the 2021-22 season. Along with the changes in his shot distribution and accuracy, coach Doc Rivers placed Antetokounmpo in different spots, which helped show how last season may be the first step in extending the peak of Antetokounmpo's MVP prime. At the end of the season, when Damian Lillard was out with a deep vein thrombosis blood clot in his right leg, the Bucks were forced to build the team solely around Antetokounmpo's strengths. That revealed how a more heliocentric approach could help Antetokounmpo elongate his prime, even if he is not the same world-destroying freak of nature he was when he won his first MVP in 2019. As Bucks general manager Jon Horst approaches next season, he can foster an environment that allows Antetokounmpo to thrive by building a roster where Antetokounmpo can operate in the mid-range and the post as a playmaker on offense while also not forcing him to save the day with a superhero effort on defense. Surrounding Antetokounmpo with players who can knock down shots and defend multiple positions would allow him to thrive on both ends of the floor. One of the frequent critiques I hear of Antetokounmpo's game is that he is not quite the defender that he used to be. That is fair considering he took home the 2020 NBA Defensive Player of the Year when he entered his athletic peak, but it may not be as fair when considering his 1A contemporaries. Gilgeous-Alexander put together an excellent defensive season this year, and he did it while sharing the floor with four players — Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Chet Holmgren — that either earned All-Defensive Team honors this season or deserve consideration for those honors annually. He's on a team that has more defensive talent than any other team in the league. Jokić has long been in a system that hides his defensive weaknesses and accentuates his ball skills and intelligence. Advertisement Neither of those situations would describe a Bucks team that had just one defender, Brook Lopez, who has been worthy of All-Defensive consideration over the last five years and forced multiple defenders to play out of position. I like your concept of a gap year for the Bucks. If Horst can maneuver to get a couple of younger wings who can run the floor with Giannis, this could be the year for them to develop. Do you think Horst is thinking about younger and more versatile players? And do you think Doc can develop them? If I'm being honest, I have my doubts about both. — Jim W. This question speaks, at least a little bit, to my previous answer's ending, as well as several questions from this mailbag regarding the Bucks' ability as an organization to develop young talent. I think Jim's doubts are warranted. In recent years, the Bucks have not managed to get much out of the NBA Draft. Under Horst's leadership, here are the NBA Draft selections that the Bucks have made (or acquired in a trade) that ended up on the roster on opening night of the next season: Out of those selections, Donte DiVincenzo is the only player who has turned into a proven NBA contributor. To be fair, Sandro Mamukelashvili just completed his fourth NBA season, and Andre Jackson Jr. and AJ Johnson have both shown flashes on their rookie contracts. But DiVincenzo is the only player on the list who is an undeniable NBA success. Before making too harsh a judgment, it is worth noting that there are only four first-round picks on that list, and each of those selections occurred in the back half of the first round, which means the historical odds of those picks turning into a rotation player are somewhere around 25 percent. So, hitting on one of those four picks is actually in line with historical expectations. The Bucks, however, didn't get to see that investment through as DiVincenzo ended up finding his greatest success outside of Milwaukee. As you go deeper in the draft, the odds for success drop dramatically, so it isn't necessarily surprising that the Bucks haven't managed to hit in the NBA Draft with no lottery picks and a majority of their selections coming outside of the top 20. That will need to change moving forward, as the new collective bargaining agreement has made it important for teams to find players who can contribute on cheap contracts. One of the easiest ways for teams to do that will be the NBA Draft. If the Bucks are going to find more value in their draft selections, they will need to have far better organizational alignment on the goals that they want to accomplish with those players. Last season's usage of the Bucks' two most prominent young players provides decent guidelines for what the organization must consider moving forward. Advertisement The organization's greatest recent player-development success story is AJ Green, who was signed as an undrafted free agent on a two-way contract following the 2022 NBA Draft. With a few injuries during the 2022-23 season, Green ended up playing rotation minutes at times during his rookie season. Then, his two-way deal was converted to a standard NBA contract in July 2023. After failing to secure a spot in Adrian Griffin's rotation, Green became a more regular rotation player under Rivers in the 2023-24 season, and then a true regular last season. By the time the Bucks got to a do-or-die Game 5 against the Pacers, Green played 46 minutes as Rivers and the Bucks tried to stave off elimination. Now, Green is in a position to sign a real extension on his second NBA contract and solidify his place in the league next season. Green was only able to get to this position because of the opportunity he received from Rivers over the last two seasons. It wasn't just that Rivers played Green, but Rivers made sure to create a role that made sense for Green. Some plays involved Green as a screener for Antetokounmpo in inverted pick-and-rolls and after-timeout plays that freed Green for catch-and-shoot 3-point opportunities. Now, look at the rest of the young players on the roster last season. While Andre Jackson Jr. started 43 games and played 980 minutes, the Bucks never carved out an offensive role that made sense for him. He was a huge part of what they did defensively and the pressure that they applied against the league's top point guards, but unlike Green, he was not given special rules or opportunities offensively. Despite not being an aggressive 3-point shooter, Jackson sat in the corner for catch-and-shoot 3s before getting moved to the dunker to wait for drop-offs from Antetokounmpo or Lillard. At his best in college, Jackson was allowed to be a playmaker as a short roller, and he exhibited those same strengths in games Antetokounmpo missed, where Jackson played heavy minutes with Lillard. But the Bucks rarely used him in that role this season when all three shared the floor. It may be unreasonable to expect the Bucks to create a different package of plays for a role player, but they showed that willingness with Green when he played with Antetokounmpo on the floor and Lillard off. If the Bucks are going to develop young players successfully, these things are needed. Green is undeniably talented, but his NBA success has not been an accident. Advertisement If the Bucks want to have more of those success stories, they need to be aligned from the front office to the coaching staff and figure out how they plan to develop young players next season. They need to find pockets of playing time for those young players and also opportunities that allow them to play to their strengths while also helping the team play winning basketball. It is a lot to balance, but it must be a part of Milwaukee's path forward if it wants to maintain long-term success. (Photo of Giannis Antetokounmpo: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)
New York Times
14-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NBA Player Tiers 2025: Tier 5 features some former champions and known veterans
This article is part of our Rankings & Tiers series, an evaluation across sport about the key players, front offices, teams, franchises and much more. With the 2024-25 NBA regular season complete, The Athletic presents its end-of-season NBA Player Tiers, a look at determining and slotting the top 125 players in the league. Seth Partnow shepherded this project for four seasons, making it clear these were not rankings but a hard look at the value of the league's best players and where they should be slotted. In October, I introduced Reliability Tiers, a five-part series on players the NBA considered to be stars. That was an intentionally objective exercise, while the Player Tiers project is inherently more subjective. I have a different way of evaluating players from my former colleague, and this is inspired by the foundation he built. Advertisement If we were to treat this like the scientific method, then Seth used a strong question to guide this player-evaluation process back in 2020: 'What do we have? What do we need? What do we have to do to get there?' When considering players, my question is simply: 'How close is this player helping you get to winning — especially a championship?' In our five-part series, we are keeping tiers and sub-tiers, but I have simplified what each tier represents: Putting players in tiers is an acknowledgment that similar players are generally a product of preference, fit and situation. Many factors go into how a player is valued. Is the team a contender, a pretender or in one of the various rebuilding stages? Is the player a guard, a wing or a big? Basketball is a team game with so many different skill sets and body types on rosters and in lineups — yet, we are here evaluating individuals. It is impossible to fully remove the factors around a player's environment to get to where that player's place in the league is in a vacuum. But my task is to try and do just that. The methodology that led me to create these tiers can be broken down into three parts. Part I: Impact in minutes played. I considered every player in the NBA who is playing at least 30 minutes per game, and I excluded all players who do not play 20 minutes per game this season. Of the players who played 10 games this season: I wanted to make this a 25-minute-only player exercise, so 20 minutes is generous. Roughly half of the players who played legitimate rotation minutes at some point in the season are on the list. From there, I wanted to look at how good players are as far as how much better they make their teams when they are on the floor compared to when those players are off the floor, and how good those teams are in general when those players are on the floor. Advertisement Part II: There is only one ball, and this game is about buckets. There is a great deal of responsibility in being a player through whom teams play. It is important to not only identify which players are used as primary playmakers and top scoring options the most, but also how effective those players are at scoring in the actions that feature stars the most: pick-and-roll ballhandling, isolations and post-ups. Are you the type of player who gets most of the touches in your team's offense? Are you the type of player who can be effective with your touches? In October 2020, Charles Barkley went on 'The Dan Patrick Show' and said there are bus drivers and bus riders. The context of Barkley's comments surrounding Kevin Durant's role and impact on back-to-back Golden State Warriors championship teams is not something I necessarily vibe with, but basketball is rarely a democracy, especially on the offensive end. Understanding the pecking order of how teams function, and who teams play through versus who are in secondary and tertiary roles, goes a long way toward determining who is valuable on the floor for a team. What Barkley doesn't discuss that I certainly will consider: There are some horrendous bus drivers and some great bus riders! Part III: I value players who are effective with the ball more than those who are inefficient with it or don't touch it often. I value players who positively contribute to winning teams in heavy-minute roles more than players who hurt their teams and/or play fewer minutes. But I am also heavy on what players actually do in a variety of roles. I'm a believer in five positions: point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward, center. But that doesn't mean players should be stuck in a box. I am more interested in determining where a player fits best, and then how many positions a player can reasonably play based on their size, skill set and ability to complement other players within a scheme. Defense validates lineups, and offenses require players who have the ability to dribble, pass and shoot. With that said, I look at these five skill sets for all players, regardless of position: There is no one-size-fits-all number I prefer. Players who are in strong lineups on teams prone to having awful lineups on the floor in the same games are prone to having skewed impact numbers. Offensive skill can be easier to determine, but defensive numbers are harder to trust. It is really important to watch what players are asked to do defensively and whom they are capable of guarding and see how well they fit into how a team defends consistently. Advertisement This wound up being the exclusion tier. Even getting to 125 is an act of inclusion. Some players are basically the 'best of the rest' outside of the top 100. Dejounte Murray and Chris Paul are the point guards in this group. Murray already had an injury-marred first season with the Pelicans before he ruptured his right Achilles tendon. Now, Murray has to come back from an Achilles injury and an ACL injury. He should probably be in a higher tier, but it is hard to imagine him being ready to play next fall. Paul is no longer a scorer, but he has been a helpful player and earned the right to choose how long he will play. The shooting guards in this group are Luguentz Dort and Brandon Miller. Dort is more 3-and-D than ever, and while effective, his free-throw rate and scoring have plummeted. Miller added more volume in his second season, but his efficiency as a scorer went in the wrong direction before season-ending wrist surgery. Rui Hachimura is a large small forward who has been a decent defender while continuing to be the only 40 percent 3-point shooter on the Lakers roster. The power forwards in this group are Miles Bridges, Al Horford and Khris Middleton. While Miller got more touches than Bridges with the Hornets, Bridges is better on the ball at this point. The issue for Bridges is that he's not very efficient either, and he's an underwhelming 3-point shooter. Horford is nearing the end, which shows up in his lack of interior scoring and rim protection, but he is still a helpful player on both ends. Middleton has shown he is a playoff riser, but his age and durability make it challenging for him to play the minutes that made him a star in Milwaukee. Nikola Vučević is the lone center in this group. While he has value for his rare offensive skill set at his size, Vučević is one of the worst rim protectors starting at center, making him a defensive liability who is in his mid-30s. The 5B group is a step below the 5A group in that it is harder to see these players in the top 100. Payton Pritchard is a Sixth Man of the Year candidate who has to make up for what was overall a rough 2024 postseason. Shooting guard Bradley Beal can still shoot and be efficient offensively, but he is one of the worst fits in the league with the other stars he shares the floor with. Beal's lack of durability, positional size and defense have made him a distressed asset. Advertisement This is a group heavy on small forwards between Tari Eason, Cameron Johnson, Derrick Jones Jr. and Devin Vassell. Eason is dynamic on both ends, but his leg has to be managed. Johnson was a hot trade target, and he is an excellent shooter, but he is a little stretched as a primary option. Jones found a team that lets him be a peak 3-and-D athlete, as more than 60 percent of his field goals are 3s or dunks. Vassell has on-ball chops and a good jumper, and he can make plays defensively. But Vassell's free-throw rate dropped off while the Spurs were at their worst with Vassell on the floor defensively. Dorian Finney-Smith and Toumani Camara are in this group at power forward. Finney-Smith has been very helpful to the Lakers as a 3-and-D forward, while Camara gets the toughest assignments for Portland defensively while hitting 38 percent of his 3s. Jakob Poeltl and Onyeka Okongwu are the two centers in this group. Both are helpful players who offer more skill than most centers but can disappoint in other areas. Poeltl is a decent passer who finishes and rebounds while graduating from awful to merely below average from the free-throw line. Okongwu offers a little more upside as a shooter but is not particularly difference-making as a defender. I felt like this last group of players needed to be on, but was absolutely at the chopping block. Russell Westbrook is one of the most polarizing players here. When things are going well, he is still able to do things few can do. But he is barely on this list because his limitations need to be accounted for by either playing him with the best players or giving him an outsized on-ball role that isn't sustainable throughout a regular season or postseason for a team that wants to win. Anfernee Simons has a lot of offensive responsibility and keeps his turnovers low, but he is a defensive liability who would be much more helpful to a team in a role where he isn't the primary scorer or ballhandler. In the same way Simons is a lower-tiered descendant of Damian Lillard in Portland, Jordan Poole is the descendant of Bradley Beal in Washington. We've seen Poole be helpful to a title team in the role that is most appropriate to him, but his effectiveness wanes as a primary option for a bad team. Bogdan Bogdanović likely wouldn't make this list if he were still in Atlanta. The fit became poor there, his ability to score looked like it had declined sharply, and his shooting looked like it was gone. But since he got to the Clippers, he has rediscovered his shot while going from the team that isolates the least to the team that isolates the most. LA has put the ball in his hands, and he has shown he can be a difference-maker as a secondary ballhandler. It helps that he has above-average positional size to go with the skill, allowing him to fit in powerful lineups with few rest stops. Kris Dunn is a guard-sized player whom I slot as a small forward because of his tertiary offensive responsibilities and elevated importance defensively. I have concerns about Dunn's lack of scoring and paltry 3-point shooting, but he is a valuable caretaker offensively while applying some of the most impactful perimeter defense in the league this season. Advertisement Apologies to players such as Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Cam Thomas, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Wiggins and Bennedict Mathurin. The 2025 postseason will be interesting for the players who are on teams that qualify, and their future outlooks will ride on that. The Rankings and Tiers series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; top photos: Patrick McDermott, Patrick Smith, Kelsey Grant / Getty Images)
