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Time of India
5 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Iran-Israel war escalation: Experts warn of cascading impact on India's trade with West Asia; crude prices, exports at risk
The escalating war between Iran and Israel could have wide-ranging repercussions for India's trade with the broader West Asian region, experts warned, citing early signs of export disruptions and heightened shipping and insurance risks. The conflict has already started impacting India's trade with Iran and Israel, and any further escalation could endanger exports to countries such as Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, they said. 'We are in for big trouble now because of this war. It will have a cascading effect on India's trade with West Asian countries,' said Sharad Kumar Saraf, founder chairman of Mumbai-based Technocraft Industries, which exports drum closures and packaging components, PTI quoted. Saraf said his firm is already holding back shipments to both Israel and Iran due to the deteriorating situation. Strategic choke points under stress The recent US airstrikes on Iran — aimed at neutralising its nuclear programme — have worsened the security outlook, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical oil shipping lane through which 60–65 per cent of India's crude imports pass. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) noted that any escalation in the region, especially one that disrupts the Hormuz Strait, would severely affect India's energy security, increase shipping costs and drive up inflation. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Buy Brass Idols - Handmade Brass Statues for Home & Gifting Luxeartisanship Buy Now Undo 'Any disruption to shipping lanes, port access or financial systems in this corridor would severely impact India's trade flows,' said Ajay Srivastava, GTRI founder. India's exposure to Iran, Israel, and West Asia India exported goods worth $1.24 billion to Iran in FY25, primarily Basmati rice ($753.2 million), banana, soya meal, Bengal gram, and tea. Imports from Iran were $441.8 million. Trade with Israel was larger, with $2.1 billion in exports and $1.6 billion in imports during 2024–25. GTRI warned that perishable shipments like rice, bananas, and tea are especially vulnerable due to delays and higher insurance costs. 'A prolonged conflict could dampen Iranian demand and squeeze Indian exporters,' Srivastava said. Trade with the broader West Asia region — including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen — stood at $8.6 billion in exports and $33.1 billion in imports, making it a significant trading corridor. Rising global shipping and security risks The fresh conflict builds on already strained global shipping routes. Attacks by Yemen-based Houthi rebels since the October 2023 Israel-Hamas war have hampered commercial movement through the Red Sea. Around 80 per cent of India's European trade passes through this route, as does a large portion of shipments to the US. The Red Sea also handles 30 per cent of global container traffic and 12 per cent of total world trade, making these disruptions especially significant. India's overall exports had grown 6 per cent to $825 billion in FY25, and the government is targeting $900 billion this fiscal. However, May data showed a 2.17 per cent decline in exports, driven by a drop in petroleum product shipments. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has also revised its outlook, saying global trade will contract 0.2 per cent in 2025, against the earlier projection of 2.7 per cent growth, due to the tariff war and geopolitical instability. Experts now warn that the widening Iran-Israel war, combined with the uncertain impact of US involvement and potential disruptions in the Hormuz Strait, may further derail India's trade recovery and energy security. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
7 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Iran-Israel war escalation to impact India' s trade with West Asia, say experts
Any further escalation of the ongoing war between Iran and Israel will have wider implications for India 's trade with West Asian countries, including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, say experts. They said that the war has already started impacting India's exports to Iran and Israel. The US attacked three sites in Iran early Sunday, inserting itself into Israel's war aimed at destroying the country's nuclear programme in a risky gambit to weaken a longtime foe that prompted fears of a wider regional conflict as Tehran accused Washington of launching "a dangerous war". by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Many Are Watching Tariffs - Few Are Watching What Nvidia Just Launched Seeking Alpha Read Now Undo "We are in for big trouble now because of this war. It will have a cascading effect on India's trade with West Asian countries," Mumbai-based exporter and founder chairman of Technocraft Industries India Sharad Kumar Saraf said. Saraf said that his company is also holding back consignments to both these countries. Technocraft Industries manufactures drum closures, nylon and plastic plugs, capseal closures, and clamps. Live Events "There will be a cascading effect of this war," he added. Another exporter said that the Indian traders community is already reeling under the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict and involvement of Yemen-backed Houthis' attack on shipping vessels in the Red Sea. Due to that, shipping lines from India were taking consignments from the Cape of Good Hope, encircling the African continent. Now, because of the Iran-Israel war, another key trading route - the Strait of Hormuz - is getting affected. "This route will hit the movement of oil tankers. I have a feeling that oil tankers will find new routes but that will push crude oil prices. It will have implications on inflation as crude oil prices are the mother of all prices," Saraf said. Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that a wider regional escalation could threaten India's much larger trade with the broader West Asian region, including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, where Indian exports total USD 8.6 billion and imports stand at USD 33.1 billion. "Any disruption to shipping lanes, port access, or financial systems in this corridor would severely impact India's trade flows, inflate freight and insurance costs, and introduce fresh supply chain risks for Indian businesses," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said. India's exports to Iran stood at USD 1.24 billion in FY2025, with key items including Basmati rice (USD 753.2 million), banana (USD 53.2 million), soya meal (USD 70.6 million), Bengal gram (USD 27.9 million), and tea (USD 25.5 million). Imports stood at USD 441.8 billion last fiscal. With Israel, India's exports stood at USD 2.1 billion and USD 1.6 billion in imports in 2024-25. He said that the ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iran and the threat of wider conflict could significantly disrupt this trade. Payment channels already strained by US sanctions may face further blockages, while heightened shipping risks in the Gulf could drive up insurance costs and delay shipments. "Perishable exports like rice, bananas, and tea are especially vulnerable. A prolonged conflict could dampen Iranian demand and squeeze Indian exporters, particularly in the agricultural sector," Srivastava said. GTRI said that a key concern is the potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 60-65 per cent of India's crude imports transit. "Any blockade or military escalation in this vital maritime corridor would severely impact India's energy security, drive up oil prices, and trigger inflationary pressures at home," it added. India enjoys deep historical, cultural, and economic ties with Iran, once a major crude oil supplier and views Iran's Chabahar Port as a strategic gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, providing crucial connectivity while bypassing Pakistan. Yet India also maintains robust relations with the US, Israel, and Gulf Arab states, each now directly or indirectly involved in the unfolding confrontation, Srivastava said. India's crude oil and half of its LNG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to close. This narrow waterway, only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, handles nearly a fifth of global oil trade and is indispensable to India, which depends on imports for over 80 per cent of its energy needs. The Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south, serves as the main route for oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. Many liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, especially from Qatar, also pass through the strait. According to the Delhi-based economic think tank, any closure or military disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would sharply increase oil prices, shipping costs, and insurance premiums, triggering inflation, pressuring the rupee, and complicating India's fiscal management. The present conflict that began with an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, has brought cargo movement through Red Sea routes to a halt due to attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial shipping. Last year, the situation around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial shipping route connecting the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean, escalated due to attacks by Yemen-based Houthi militants. Around 80 per cent of India's merchandise trade with Europe passes through the Red Sea, and substantial trade with the US also takes this route. Both these geographies account for 34 per cent of the country's total exports. The Red Sea Strait is vital for 30 per cent of global container traffic and 12 per cent of world trade. Based on the tariff war impact, the World Trade Organisation ( WTO ) has already said that global trade will contract 0.2 per cent in 2025 as against the earlier projection of 2.7 per cent expansion. India's overall exports had grown 6 per cent on year to USD 825 billion in 2024-25. This year it is expected to cross USD 900 billion. Snapping the two-month rising trend, India's exports declined by 2.17 per cent year-on-year to USD 38.73 billion in May due to a fall in petroleum goods' shipments.
New Indian Express
7 hours ago
- Business
- New Indian Express
Iran-Israel war escalation to impact India's trade with West Asia, say experts
NEW DELHI: Any further escalation of the ongoing war between Iran and Israel will have wider implications for India's trade with West Asian countries, including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, say experts. They said that the war has already started impacting India's exports to Iran and Israel. The US attacked three sites in Iran early Sunday, inserting itself into Israel's war aimed at destroying the country's nuclear programme in a risky gambit to weaken a longtime foe that prompted fears of a wider regional conflict as Tehran accused Washington of launching "a dangerous war". "We are in for big trouble now because of this war. It will have a cascading effect on India's trade with West Asian countries," Mumbai-based exporter and founder chairman of Technocraft Industries India Sharad Kumar Saraf said. Saraf said that his company is also holding back consignments to both these countries. Technocraft Industries manufactures drum closures, nylon and plastic plugs, capseal closures, and clamps. "There will be a cascading effect of this war," he added.
Mint
8 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Iran-Israel war escalation to impact Indias trade with West Asia, say experts
New Delhi, Jun 22 (PTI) Any further escalation of the ongoing war between Iran and Israel will have wider implications for India's trade with West Asian countries, including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, say experts. They said that the war has already started impacting India's exports to Iran and Israel. The US attacked three sites in Iran early Sunday, inserting itself into Israel's war aimed at destroying the country's nuclear programme in a risky gambit to weaken a longtime foe that prompted fears of a wider regional conflict as Tehran accused Washington of launching "a dangerous war". "We are in for big trouble now because of this war. It will have a cascading effect on India's trade with West Asian countries," Mumbai-based exporter and founder chairman of Technocraft Industries India Sharad Kumar Saraf said. Saraf said that his company is also holding back consignments to both these countries. Technocraft Industries manufactures drum closures, nylon and plastic plugs, capseal closures, and clamps. "There will be a cascading effect of this war," he added. Another exporter said that the Indian traders community is already reeling under the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict and involvement of Yemen-backed Houthis' attack on shipping vessels in the Red Sea. Due to that, shipping lines from India were taking consignments from the Cape of Good Hope, encircling the African continent. Now, because of the Iran-Israel war, another key trading route - the Strait of Hormuz - is getting affected. "This route will hit the movement of oil tankers. I have a feeling that oil tankers will find new routes but that will push crude oil prices. It will have implications on inflation as crude oil prices are the mother of all prices," Saraf said. Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that a wider regional escalation could threaten India's much larger trade with the broader West Asian region, including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, where Indian exports total USD 8.6 billion and imports stand at USD 33.1 billion. "Any disruption to shipping lanes, port access, or financial systems in this corridor would severely impact India's trade flows, inflate freight and insurance costs, and introduce fresh supply chain risks for Indian businesses," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said. India's exports to Iran stood at USD 1.24 billion in FY2025, with key items including Basmati rice (USD 753.2 million), banana (USD 53.2 million), soya meal (USD 70.6 million), Bengal gram (USD 27.9 million), and tea (USD 25.5 million). Imports stood at USD 441.8 billion last fiscal. With Israel, India's exports stood at USD 2.1 billion and USD 1.6 billion in imports in 2024-25. He said that the ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iran and the threat of wider conflict could significantly disrupt this trade. Payment channels already strained by US sanctions may face further blockages, while heightened shipping risks in the Gulf could drive up insurance costs and delay shipments. "Perishable exports like rice, bananas, and tea are especially vulnerable. A prolonged conflict could dampen Iranian demand and squeeze Indian exporters, particularly in the agricultural sector," Srivastava said. GTRI said that a key concern is the potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 60-65 per cent of India's crude imports transit. "Any blockade or military escalation in this vital maritime corridor would severely impact India's energy security, drive up oil prices, and trigger inflationary pressures at home," it added. India enjoys deep historical, cultural, and economic ties with Iran, once a major crude oil supplier and views Iran's Chabahar Port as a strategic gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, providing crucial connectivity while bypassing Pakistan. Yet India also maintains robust relations with the US, Israel, and Gulf Arab states, each now directly or indirectly involved in the unfolding confrontation, Srivastava said. India's crude oil and half of its LNG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to close. This narrow waterway, only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, handles nearly a fifth of global oil trade and is indispensable to India, which depends on imports for over 80 per cent of its energy needs. The Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south, serves as the main route for oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. Many liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, especially from Qatar, also pass through the strait. According to the Delhi-based economic think tank, any closure or military disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would sharply increase oil prices, shipping costs, and insurance premiums, triggering inflation, pressuring the rupee, and complicating India's fiscal management. The present conflict that began with an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, has brought cargo movement through Red Sea routes to a halt due to attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial shipping. Last year, the situation around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial shipping route connecting the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean, escalated due to attacks by Yemen-based Houthi militants. Around 80 per cent of India's merchandise trade with Europe passes through the Red Sea, and substantial trade with the US also takes this route. Both these geographies account for 34 per cent of the country's total exports. The Red Sea Strait is vital for 30 per cent of global container traffic and 12 per cent of world trade. Based on the tariff war impact, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has already said that global trade will contract 0.2 per cent in 2025 as against the earlier projection of 2.7 per cent expansion. India's overall exports had grown 6 per cent on year to USD 825 billion in 2024-25. This year it is expected to cross USD 900 billion. Snapping the two-month rising trend, India's exports declined by 2.17 per cent year-on-year to USD 38.73 billion in May due to a fall in petroleum goods' shipments.
Mint
20-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Scam-tainted NSEL's ₹1,950 crore one-time settlement gets investor nod
An overwhelming majority of the affected traders have voted in favour of a proposed ₹ 1,950 crore one-time settlement with the National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL), paving the way for potentially ending the 13-year-old payments crisis. The settlement—filed by NSEL with the backing of its parent 63 Moons Technologies before the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT)—received support from 92.81% (5,682 traders) of the traders by number and 91.35% by value, according to a statement by the exchange. The e-voting process concluded on 17 May. NSEL's collapse in 2013 had left over 13,000 investors with claims amounting to ₹ 5,600 crore. While some payouts have been made over the years, larger investors await final settlement. The latest proposal, introduced in November 2024, seeks to distribute ₹ 1,950 crore—roughly 42% of the ₹ 4,650 crore still owed—subject to final approval. 'This is the major step in the distribution of money to the specified creditors,' said Sharad Kumar Saraf, chairman of the NSEL Investors Forum (NIF). The voting results reflect an overwhelming interest among investors to recover at least part of their investments, he said. Originally proposed by the NIF, the scheme seeks to compensate traders in proportion to their outstanding dues as of 31 July 2024. Once implemented, it will also lead to the withdrawal of ongoing litigation and the assignment of all creditor rights to 63 Moons. The NCLT in its 8 April order had directed the e-voting process and appointed Ashwini Gupta as the scrutinizer and retired IRS officer Mukesh Mital as chairperson. S. Rajendran, managing director and chief executive of 63 Moons, expressed optimism that the 'first-of-its-kind settlement' would receive necessary regulatory support. According to legal experts, the settlement's fate now rests with the NCLT. 'With over 91% of affected traders backing the ₹ 1,950 crore one-time settlement, the OTS proposal has cleared the most critical hurdle—creditor approval,' said Alok Kumar, founder and senior partner at THS–The Law Firm. However, for the scheme to attain finality, it must now pass judicial scrutiny. 'The tribunal's sanction is essential under Sections 230–232 of the Companies Act, as this isn't merely a private contract but a court-monitored compromise scheme.' Abhinav Agnihotri, partner at Burgeon Law, said while the majority backing strengthens the case, dissenting creditors—roughly 9%—can still object during NCLT hearings. 'The NCLT is not a rubber stamp. It can reject the scheme if it's found to be unfair, discriminatory, legally defective, or against public policy.' Even after NCLT clearance, challenges could arise. 'The scheme may be delayed in case NCLAT is inclined to pass any interim order staying the operation of the NCLT order,' Agnihotri said.
