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Indian Express
7 days ago
- Climate
- Indian Express
IMD Mumbai Director interview: ‘Timeline of the monsoon doesn't matter. We can expect many days of heavy to very heavy rain'
From no heat wave day to heavy pre-monsoon showers that shattered records, this May has been one for the history books for Mumbai. After experiencing light to moderate showers from the second week of the month, monsoon arrived in Mumbai with a bang on May 26, making it the earliest recorded onset in the past 75 years. With the city experiencing an early arrival of monsoon, Shubhangi Bhute, Director, IMD (Mumbai) and head of Regional Meteorological Centre for Western India, spoke to The Indian Express about the factors influencing the early arrival and what Mumbai can expect going forward. Here are the edited excerpts: Q: This year, May has been unique for the city. Why did we see such heavy pre-monsoon showers, and what led to the earliest onset of the monsoon in the past 75 years at least? Shubhangi Bhute: In May, we did not see any rise in temperatures, with temperatures remaining normal and sometimes, because of rainfall activity, we have also seen that the temperatures have dropped to 32 degree Celsius as well. This month, monsoon also set into Mumbai well in advance, making it the earliest onset in the last 75 years. Earlier, there have been only five occasions (years) when the monsoon set in May, on May 31 and May 29. As well predicted, conditions were very favourable for the early onset. This year, monsoon had set into Andaman well in advance by May 13, then it set over Kerala by May 24, and then reached Maharashtra by May 25. The monsoon onset is declared when all the criteria for the declaration are met, and these include many factors about rainfall requirements, wind field, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), among others. Besides that, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is also one of the key contributors. Earlier, MJO was in the eighth phase, and now, it is in the second phase, which is favourable for good monsoons in the Indian region. Furthermore, the neutral phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and neutral El Niño are also present. And altogether, these factors have led to the early onset of monsoon in the Indian region. Q. This time, we saw that the monsoon arrived in Mumbai very quickly, merely two days after it entered Kerala. This is in stark contrast to the normal timeline of at least 10 days. Bhute: We saw that the monsoon advanced very fast. After reaching Andaman on May 13, it entered Karwar almost a week in advance. It reached Karwar and Belgaum by May 24, and then within two days, it reached Mumbai by 26th May. Besides meeting the basic conditions for the declaration of monsoon in Kerala, the monsoon advancement also depends on two branches — the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal branches. If the Arabian Sea branch on the western coast is very active, with active systems like low-pressure areas, then the southwest monsoon starts setting in from the Arabian Sea side. However, currently, the Bay of Bengal side is very lull. This means that there is no system in the Bay of Bengal to pull the moisture, therefore, monsoon advancement has been delayed on the eastern side. Once a low-pressure area forms in the eastern branch of the Bay of Bengal, the winds will be pulled, and the monsoon will also be covered on the other coast. Presently, while the Bay of Bengal branch was lull, the Arabian Sea was very active with a low-pressure area, which contributed to the pulling in of moisture from the ocean to land. This further contributed to the early advancement of monsoon. Q: Several reports and weather observers have suggested that after the early advancement, there will be a lull in showers. What does this mean? Will the rains discontinue now? Bhute: The timeline of the monsoon doesn't matter. Even if the monsoon were to arrive in June, ahead of schedule or even if it had been delayed, it is not necessary that the city would receive heavy rains every single day. Rains during monsoon are not continuous, simple or steady, as they always depend on the systems. There will always be a variation in the quantum of rain, and there may even be days when no rainfall is registered. In Mumbai, generally August is seen as the month of dry spell when there is the least rain, and July is the wettest monsoon period, while June is the month of onset. Now that the monsoons have arrived early in May, we will observe the rain patterns this month. Q: This year, IMD has forecast above normal rains all over the country. What does this mean for Mumbai? Bhute: In the Long Range Period forecast, IMD's chart has indicated that above-normal rainfall is very likely along the west coast, particularly around the Maharashtra region. This suggests that the percentage of possibility of excess rainfall is more even in Mumbai. Q: Does this mean Mumbai can see more flash floods, as we observed on May 26 with the arrival of monsoon? Bhute: The patterns of monsoon have now changed as we receive heavy rains within a short period. While we cannot say right now whether the frequency of flash floods will be higher, we can definitely expect many days where we will receive 'heavy to very heavy rain'. As per the IMD's forecast for this season, a higher frequency of rainy days is very likely, as we can expect more 'heavy to very heavy rainfall' type of days in Mumbai. Q: IMD often draws flak for failing to issue timely forecast warnings and alerts. What makes forecasting a challenging task in a city like Mumbai? Bhute: First of all, we are in a tropical region where the frequency of weather changes is very fast. Now, in the monsoons, we expect rains from the southwesterly winds, and that has to be supported by upper air winds. While generally we get rains because of southwesterly winds, which bring moisture, and we get the convection of the rains, the changes in wind patterns and other systems happen at the micro level. Mumbai is only a 40 to 60 km patch, which is in the Arabian Sea. Compared to the larger state of Maharashtra, it is a very small stretch. It is very difficult to forecast for such a small stretch, as sub-kilometre mesoscale models are unavailable. Besides being in the tropical zone, Mumbai's proximity to the sea also means that the weather changes very rapidly. On land, we observe fixed patterns where systems generally move in a very particular manner. But in Mumbai, we will see that some parts receive rain while the other parts may remain dry and even sunny. Furthermore, while we predict and issue forecast warnings on the basis of synoptic conditions one day in advance, changes happen very fast within half an hour or in hours. Even if we look at May 26, extremely heavy rainfall occurred only in South Mumbai, while the rest of the suburbs experienced much less rain during the daytime. Within two days, the Colaba station received more than 250 mm of rainfall while the Santacruz station recorded heavy showers on the second day. Whenever we issue orange or red alerts, we mention the likelihood of rain in isolated pockets, as it is very unlikely that the entire city would receive heavy rain. Q: What is the system of issuing red alerts? Sometimes, red alerts are issued when the intensity of rain relaxes or the showers discontinue after a red warning is sounded. Bhute: For red warnings, we generally follow the orange alert. While we forecast heavy rainfall for an orange alert, the city may likely experience extremely heavy rainfall for only two hours, after which it may dry up. On May 26, too, we had issued forecasts with orange and then, red alerts, indicating that the city would receive heavy rain during the first half, following which the intensity would reduce. However, we issue our forecast warnings for a period of 24 hours, as immediately removing the red alert is not ideal. Even if the system relaxes and rains have reduced, we keep our warnings for a 24-hour period, as the systems can always intensify and bring heavy rain again. Often, it also happens that we issue our red alerts 24 hours or 48 hours in advance, but sometimes the systems can change very fast. Furthermore, it is not easy to withdraw a red alert immediately after it is issued. Our objective is that the administration and the public should not be in trouble or underprepared. If there is a possibility of rain, we can always overwarn rather than underwarn, as there should not arise a situation where our underwarning leads to a lack of adequate preparation or there is an adverse situation or mishap. Sometimes, even if we are expecting heavy rain, which can be categorised as orange, we do not remove our red alert, as extra precaution is always better.
Al Jazeera
27-05-2025
- Climate
- Al Jazeera
Photos: India's monsoon lashes Mumbai as rains arrive early
Heavy rains lashed Mumbai after the annual monsoon arrived in India's financial capital nearly two weeks before schedule, according to weather forecasters. The downpours, which have brought relief from high temperatures and are welcomed by farmers for their crops, also wreak havoc in urban areas every year by flooding transport infrastructure. Typically, such monsoon rains are expected across the southwestern state of Maharashtra in early June. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of 'extremely heavy rainfall' in Mumbai, while city authorities have issued a red alert in place until Tuesday. 'All citizens are advised to stay indoors and avoid travel unless necessary,' the city authorities said in a statement, urging people to 'kindly cooperate'. In a statement, the IMD said the rains had reached Mumbai on Monday, '16 days earlier than usual', with the monsoon normally expected to arrive about 11 June. This, the agency noted, is the earliest onset for nearly a quarter of a century. 'This marks the earliest monsoon advancement over Mumbai during the period 2001-2025,' it said. Across Maharashtra, regional IMD chief Shubhangi Bhute confirmed it was the earliest arrival of the monsoon in 14 years. South Asia has experienced rising temperatures in recent years, accompanied by shifting weather patterns, but scientists remain uncertain about the precise effect of global warming on the region's highly complex monsoon system. The southwest monsoon, a colossal sea breeze, delivers between 70 and 80 percent of South Asia's annual rainfall between June and September each year. It is triggered when seasonal heat warms the subcontinent's landmass, causing air to rise and drawing in cooler winds from the Indian Ocean, releasing huge volumes of rain. The monsoon is crucial for agriculture and, by extension, the livelihoods of millions of farmers and overall food security. But it also brings annual destruction in the form of landslides and floods.
Time of India
27-05-2025
- Climate
- Time of India
May-Hem in Mumbai: How earliest ever monsoon arrival cought authorities off guard
MUMBAI: The southwest monsoon hit Mumbai on Monday - the earliest onset ever recorded for the city. The previous record was May 29, recorded in 1956, 1962, and 1971 (records date back to 1950). The early onset coincided with the island city breaking a 100-year-old record for rainfall received in May, which has now touched 295mm. Shubhangi Bhute, head of IMD Mumbai, said, "Typically, the monsoon sets in around June 11, so this year's onset is significantly early... Tomorrow, Mumbai will be under a yellow alert." IMD's Colaba observatory, which broke the all-time rainfall record for May, logging 439 mm so far, surpassed the previous record of 279.4 mm set in May 1918. Even during Cyclone Tauktae in May 2021, the station had recorded slightly less rain at 257.8 mm. The Santacruz observatory, which covers the suburbs, has so far recorded 272 mm of rain this month. The record for the highest rainall in May at Santacruz stands at 387mm in the year 2000. South Mumbai was hit hardest in the first wave of showers. According to IMD, average rainfall recorded between 8.30am and 5.30pm was 144.3 mm at Colaba - classified as "very heavy rain" (115.6-204.4 mm) - and 74.3 mm at Santacruz, falling under the "heavy rain" category (64.5-115.5 mm). by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Tukarkan Bitcoin dan Ethereum - Tanpa Dompet Diperlukan! IC Markets MULAI SEKARANG Undo However, more granular data from BMC's automatic weather stations revealed that Nariman Point alone received 104 mm of rain in just one hour on Monday morning. IMD, however, did not call this a cloudburst; it said it was an 'intense rain spell'. A cloudburst is typically defined as extremely intense rainfall over a small area, usually 100 mm or more in one hour, which often leads to flash floods, landslides, and severe water logging. The showers exposed the city's unpreparedness as areas which had never been flooded earlier also witnessed waterlogging, including the newly opened underground Acharya Atre Chowk Metro station. In fact, access to Mantralaya was partially waterlogged and govt employees had to wade through knee-deep water. Suburban train services, especially Harbour line, were hit by waterlogging. Over 50 Central Railway services and 18 Western Railway services were cancelled. Heavy rain and dense cloud cover also disrupted flight operations. An Air India flight from Ahmedabad to Mumbai was diverted back to Ahmedabad, while another from Goa was diverted to Indore, said sources. Wall and building collapses and tree fall were reported from Mahim, Malabar Hill, and Teen Batti area. A road in Kemps Corner cracked open. A dozen BEST buses were stuck on waterlogged roads and 20 routes diverted.
Hindustan Times
27-05-2025
- Climate
- Hindustan Times
Weather experts says IMD alerts and monsoon onset prediction were both faulty
MUMBAI: On Monday, the city woke up to a heavy downpour that caught it completely off guard as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had issued a yellow alert, the second mildest in its colour code, for the day. The weather bureau on Sunday had also stated that the onset of the monsoon in Mumbai was expected by Wednesday. IMD maintained the yellow alert for May 26 till 8.30 am when the weather station updates the forecasts. It upgraded it to an orange alert at 9.39 am. Less than three hours later, at 12.30pm, it further upgraded the warning to a red alert, indicating extreme rains. Shubhangi Bhute, director of IMD Mumbai was unavailable for comment. On Monday, the weather alerts also coincided with IMD's Regional Meteorological Centre in Mumbai declaring an early onset of the monsoon, the earliest in the last 35 years in Maharashtra and the last 75 years in Mumbai. 'The rainy season approaches Mumbai from Kerala, as the southwest monsoon progresses on the west coast. Usually it takes at least 10-15 days for the southwest winds to reach Mumbai—however, this year they have come early,' said Sushma Nair, scientist at IMD Mumbai. However, weather experts argued that the doppler radar of IMD showed different synoptic conditions. The scientist added that while there were favourable conditions for the monsoon onset, it was not possible for the winds to travel the west coast in two days. Rajesh Kapadia, author of 'Vagaries of Weather', agreed. 'The current rainfall activity does not meet IMD's criteria for announcing the monsoon,' he said. 'There are several technical criteria, which the current patterns do not fulfil. We are currently experiencing winds from the northwest so the rains will pass in two to three days.' Deoras highlighted that IMD would have waited to declare the monsoon, had the current rainfall activity not occurred. 'For a layperson, the monsoon is generally about the rains, not wind patterns,' he said. 'However, to avoid criticism from people, IMD declares the monsoon onset closest to a rainfall activity.' Added Kapadia, 'Because the city has already received rainfall of over 200 mm, people think it is the monsoon already so the weather station has declared it as such.' Both weather experts said the current rain spell would subside over the next two days, leading to dry weather once again. IMD has maintained a yellow alert till Thursday.
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First Post
27-05-2025
- Climate
- First Post
Monsoon mayhem in Mumbai, wettest May in 100 years
The southwest monsoon hit the city on Monday, causing widespread waterlogging and bringing local train and metro services to a halt. However, after a night of heavy rain, there were no immediate reports of waterlogging in the city on May 27, while local train services have resumed read more Mumbai woke up to light showers on Tuesday morning, giving some respite to its residents after a day of heavy downpour, as the Indian Meteorological Department issued a yellow alert for the city today. The southwest monsoon hit the city on Monday, causing widespread waterlogging and bringing local train and metro services to a halt. However, after a night of heavy rain, there were no immediate reports of waterlogging in the city on May 27, while local train services have resumed. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The southwest monsoon arrived in Mumbai on Monday, marking the earliest onset ever recorded for the city. Previously, the earliest onset was on May 29, a record set in 1956, 1962, and 1971 (based on data going back to 1950). This unusually early arrival coincided with Mumbai breaking a century-old record for May rainfall, which has now reached 295 mm. 'Typically, the monsoon sets in around June 11, so this year's onset is significantly early… Tomorrow, Mumbai will be under a yellow alert,' Shubhangi Bhute, the head of the IMD Mumbai, said. Meanwhile, IMD's Colaba observatory has logged 439 mm of rainfall on Monday, breaching the all-time record that was previously set at 279.4 mm in 1918. In fact, during Cyclone Tauktae in May 2021, the city recorded only 257.8 mm of rain. Refresh for updates.
