Latest news with #Sibylline
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How Britain's biggest companies are preparing for a Third World War
The year is 2027 and a major global conflict has erupted. Perhaps China has launched an attempted invasion of Taiwan, or Russian forces have crossed into the territory of an eastern European Nato country. Whatever the case, Justin Crump's job is to advise big companies on how to respond. And with tensions rising, a growing number of chief executives have got him on speed dial. The former Army tank commander, who now runs intelligence and security consultancy Sibylline, says his clients range from a top British supermarket chain to Silicon Valley technology giants. They are all drawing up plans to keep running during wartime, and Crump is surprisingly blunt about their reasoning: a global conflict may be just two years away. 'We're in a world which is more dangerous, more volatile than anything we've seen since the Second World War,' he explains. There are lots of crises that can happen, that are ready to go. 'Chief executives want to test against the war scenario, because they think it's credible. They want to make sure their business can get through that environment.' He rattles off a series of smouldering international issues – any one of which could ignite the global tinderbox – from Iran's nuclear ambitions, to China's threats to Taiwan, to Vladimir Putin's designs on a Russian sphere of influence in Ukraine and beyond, as well as Donald Trump's disdain for the post-1940s 'rules-based international order'. Against this backdrop, planning for war is not alarmist but sensible, Crump contends. With all these issues building, 2027 is viewed as the moment of maximum danger. 'The worst case scenario is that all these crises all overlap in 2027,' he explains. 'You've got the US midterms, which will have taken place just at the start of that year, and whatever happens there will be lots of upset people. It's also the time when a lot of the economic disruption that's happening now will have really washed through the system, so we'll be feeling the effects of that. And it's also too early for the change in defence posture to have really meant anything in Europe.' Putin and Xi Jinping, the president of China, are acutely aware of all this, he says, and may conclude that they should act before the US and Europe are more fully rearmed in 2030. 'In their minds now, the clock is ticking,' he adds. He also points to major British and Nato military exercises scheduled to take place in 2027, with American forces working to a 2027 readiness target as well. 'There's a reason they're doing it that year – because they think we have to be ready by then,' Crump says. 'So why shouldn't businesses also work off the same thinking and plan for the same thing?' He is not alone in arguing that society needs to start expecting the unexpected. In 2020, the Government established the National Preparedness Commission to ensure the UK was 'significantly better prepared' for the likes of floods, power outages, cyber attacks or wars. It has urged households to keep at least three days' worth of food and water stockpiled, along with other essential items such as a wind-up torch, portable power bank, a portable radio, spare batteries, hand sanitiser and a first aid kit. 'In recent years a series of high-impact events have demonstrated how easily our established way of life can be disrupted by major events,' the commission's website says – pointing to the coronavirus pandemic, recent African coups, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and turmoil in the Middle East. Britain is also secretly preparing for a direct military attack by Russia amid fears that it is not ready for war. Officials have been asked to update 20-year-old contingency plans that would put the country on a war footing after threats of attack by the Kremlin. All of this has led major businesses to conclude that perma crisis is the new normal, Crump says. In the case of Ukraine, Western sanctions on Russia forced companies to choose between continuing to operate heavily-constrained operations in Russia, selling up, or walking away entirely. Crump recalls speaking to several clients including a major energy company in the run-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He and his colleagues urged the business to evacuate their staff, at a point when it was still received wisdom that Putin wouldn't dare follow through with his threats. 'I had almighty arguments with some people in the run-up, because I was very firmly of the view, based on our data and insights, that the Russians were not only invading, but they were going for the whole country. But other people in our sector were saying, 'No, it's all a bluff'. 'Their team came to me afterwards and said: 'After that call, we were convinced, and we got our people out'. They got a lot of grief for that at the time, from people who were saying it was all nonsense. 'But then on the day of the invasion, they told me they got so many calls actually saying 'thank you for getting us out'.' Yet even in Ukraine, much of which remains an active war zone, life must go on – along with business. 'I've been to plenty of war zones,' says Crump. 'And people are still getting on with their lives, there's still stuff in supermarkets, and things are being made in factories – but that certainly all gets a lot more difficult.' In the case of a major British supermarket, how might executives plan for, say, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? The first question is how involved the UK expects to be, says Crump. But if Britain, as might be expected, sides with the US at least in diplomatic terms, 'we're not buying anything from China'. That immediately has implications for a company's supply chains – are there any parts of the supply chain that would be crippled without Chinese products? But as the recent cyber attack on Marks & Spencer has demonstrated, attacks on critical digital infrastructure are also a major risk to supermarkets in the event of a war with China or Russia. 'If you look at a retailer, the vulnerability is not necessarily whether or not they can transport stuff to the shop, even in a war zone,' says Crump. 'The problem becomes when you can't operate your systems. 'If you can't take money at the point of sale, or if you have no idea where your stock is because your computer system has been taken down, you've got major problems and you can't operate your business.' In a scenario where Britain becomes involved in a war itself, Crump says employers may also suddenly find themselves with gaps in their workforces. He believes things would need to get 'very bad indeed' for the Government to impose conscription, which applied to men aged 18-41 during the Second World War. But he points out that the calling up of British armed forces reservists would be very likely, along with the potential mobilisation of what is known as the 'strategic reserve' – those among the country's 1.8 million veterans who are still fit to serve. There are around 32,000 volunteer reservists and an undisclosed number of regular reserves, former regular members of the armed forces who are still liable to be called up. 'There's a big pool of people we don't tap at the moment who are already trained,' explains Crump. 'But there would be consequences if the entire reserve was called forward, which would have to happen if we entered a reasonably sized conflict. It would certainly cause disruptions. 'The medical services are hugely integrated with the NHS, for example, and we saw the effects of them being called forward with Iraq and Afghanistan.' The sort of supermarket chaos that erupted during the Covid-19 pandemic would also return with a vengeance if a significant conflict broke out. During that crisis, grocers had to limit how many packs of loo rolls and cans of chopped tomatoes shoppers were allowed to take home, among other items, because of supply chain problems. 'If we're in a conflict, that sort of supply chain activity would increase,' notes Crump. 'So you don't necessarily have rationing imposed, but there might be issues with food production, delivery, payment and getting things to the right place. 'In a world where we don't have our own independent supply chains, we're reliant on a lot of very interconnected moving parts that have been enabled by this period of peace. 'We've never been in a conflict during a time where we've had 'just in time' systems.' Crump brings up the recent blackouts in Spain and Portugal. British grocers initially thought their food supplies would be completely unaffected because truck loads of tomatoes had already made their way out of the country when the problem struck. But the vehicles were electronically locked, to prevent illegal migrants attempting to clamber inside when they cross the English Channel and could only be unlocked from Spain – where the power cuts had taken down computer systems and telecoms. 'People in Spain couldn't get online, so we had locked trucks full of tomatoes sitting here that we couldn't open because of technology,' Crump says. 'No one had ever thought, 'But what happens if all of Spain goes off the grid?' And I'm sure the answer would have been, 'That'll never happen' anyway.' This tendency towards 'normalcy bias' is what Crump tries to steer his clients away from. While it isn't inevitable that war will break out, or that there will be another pandemic, humans tend to assume that things will revert to whatever the status quo has been in their lifetimes, he says. This can mean we fail to take the threat of unlikely scenarios seriously enough, or use outdated ways of thinking to solve new problems. 'We've had this long period of peace and prosperity. And, of course, business leaders have grown up in that. Military leaders have grown up in it. Politicians have grown up in it. And so it's very hard when that starts to change. 'People have grown up in a world of rules. And I think people are still trying to find ways in which the game is still being played by those old rules.' Unsurprisingly, given his line of work, Crump believes businesses must get more comfortable contemplating the unthinkable. 'Go back a decade and most executives did not want to have a crisis because a crisis is bad for your career, so they didn't want to do a test exercise – because you might fail,' Crump adds. 'But the whole point is that you can fail in an exercise, because it's not real life.' At least, not yet. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
4 days ago
- Business
- Telegraph
How Britain's biggest companies are preparing for a Third World War
The year is 2027 and a major global conflict has erupted. Perhaps China has launched an attempted invasion of Taiwan, or Russian forces have crossed into the territory of an eastern European Nato country. Whatever the case, Justin Crump's job is to advise big companies on how to respond. And with tensions rising, a growing number of chief executives have got him on speed dial. The former Army tank commander, who now runs intelligence and security consultancy Sibylline, says his clients range from a top British supermarket chain to Silicon Valley technology giants. They are all drawing up plans to keep running during wartime, and Crump is surprisingly blunt about their reasoning: a global conflict may be just two years away. 'We're in a world which is more dangerous, more volatile than anything we've seen since the Second World War,' he explains. There are lots of crises that can happen, that are ready to go. 'Chief executives want to test against the war scenario, because they think it's credible. They want to make sure their business can get through that environment.' The year of worst case scenarios He rattles off a series of smouldering international issues – any one of which could ignite the global tinderbox – from Iran's nuclear ambitions, to China's threats to Taiwan, to Vladimir Putin's designs on a Russian sphere of influence in Ukraine and beyond, as well as Donald Trump's disdain for the post-1940s 'rules-based international order'. Against this backdrop, planning for war is not alarmist but sensible, Crump contends. With all these issues building, 2027 is viewed as the moment of maximum danger. 'The worst case scenario is that all these crises all overlap in 2027,' he explains. 'You've got the US midterms, which will have taken place just at the start of that year, and whatever happens there will be lots of upset people. It's also the time when a lot of the economic disruption that's happening now will have really washed through the system, so we'll be feeling the effects of that. And it's also too early for the change in defence posture to have really meant anything in Europe.' Putin and Xi Jinping, the president of China, are acutely aware of all this, he says, and may conclude that they should act before the US and Europe are more fully rearmed in 2030. 'In their minds now, the clock is ticking,' he adds. He also points to major British and Nato military exercises scheduled to take place in 2027, with American forces working to a 2027 readiness target as well. 'There's a reason they're doing it that year – because they think we have to be ready by then,' Crump says. 'So why shouldn't businesses also work off the same thinking and plan for the same thing?' He is not alone in arguing that society needs to start expecting the unexpected. In 2020, the Government established the National Preparedness Commission to ensure the UK was 'significantly better prepared' for the likes of floods, power outages, cyber attacks or wars. It has urged households to keep at least three days' worth of food and water stockpiled, along with other essential items such as a wind-up torch, portable power bank, a portable radio, spare batteries, hand sanitiser and a first aid kit. 'In recent years a series of high-impact events have demonstrated how easily our established way of life can be disrupted by major events,' the commission's website says – pointing to the coronavirus pandemic, recent African coups, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and turmoil in the Middle East. Britain is also secretly preparing for a direct military attack by Russia amid fears that it is not ready for war. Officials have been asked to update 20-year-old contingency plans that would put the country on a war footing after threats of attack by the Kremlin. All of this has led major businesses to conclude that perma crisis is the new normal, Crump says. In the case of Ukraine, Western sanctions on Russia forced companies to choose between continuing to operate heavily-constrained operations in Russia, selling up, or walking away entirely. Crump recalls speaking to several clients including a major energy company in the run-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He and his colleagues urged the business to evacuate their staff, at a point when it was still received wisdom that Putin wouldn't dare follow through with his threats. 'I had almighty arguments with some people in the run-up, because I was very firmly of the view, based on our data and insights, that the Russians were not only invading, but they were going for the whole country. But other people in our sector were saying, 'No, it's all a bluff'. 'Their team came to me afterwards and said: 'After that call, we were convinced, and we got our people out'. They got a lot of grief for that at the time, from people who were saying it was all nonsense. 'But then on the day of the invasion, they told me they got so many calls actually saying 'thank you for getting us out'.' Yet even in Ukraine, much of which remains an active war zone, life must go on – along with business. 'I've been to plenty of war zones,' says Crump. 'And people are still getting on with their lives, there's still stuff in supermarkets, and things are being made in factories – but that certainly all gets a lot more difficult.' In the case of a major British supermarket, how might executives plan for, say, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? The first question is how involved the UK expects to be, says Crump. But if Britain, as might be expected, sides with the US at least in diplomatic terms, 'we're not buying anything from China'. That immediately has implications for a company's supply chains – are there any parts of the supply chain that would be crippled without Chinese products? But as the recent cyber attack on Marks & Spencer has demonstrated, attacks on critical digital infrastructure are also a major risk to supermarkets in the event of a war with China or Russia. 'If you look at a retailer, the vulnerability is not necessarily whether or not they can transport stuff to the shop, even in a war zone,' says Crump. 'The problem becomes when you can't operate your systems. 'If you can't take money at the point of sale, or if you have no idea where your stock is because your computer system has been taken down, you've got major problems and you can't operate your business.' Workforce gaps In a scenario where Britain becomes involved in a war itself, Crump says employers may also suddenly find themselves with gaps in their workforces. He believes things would need to get 'very bad indeed' for the Government to impose conscription, which applied to men aged 18-41 during the Second World War. But he points out that the calling up of British armed forces reservists would be very likely, along with the potential mobilisation of what is known as the 'strategic reserve' – those among the country's 1.8 million veterans who are still fit to serve. There are around 32,000 volunteer reservists and an undisclosed number of regular reserves, former regular members of the armed forces who are still liable to be called up. 'There's a big pool of people we don't tap at the moment who are already trained,' explains Crump. 'But there would be consequences if the entire reserve was called forward, which would have to happen if we entered a reasonably sized conflict. It would certainly cause disruptions. 'The medical services are hugely integrated with the NHS, for example, and we saw the effects of them being called forward with Iraq and Afghanistan.' Food supplies The sort of supermarket chaos that erupted during the Covid-19 pandemic would also return with a vengeance if a significant conflict broke out. During that crisis, grocers had to limit how many packs of loo rolls and cans of chopped tomatoes shoppers were allowed to take home, among other items, because of supply chain problems. 'If we're in a conflict, that sort of supply chain activity would increase,' notes Crump. 'So you don't necessarily have rationing imposed, but there might be issues with food production, delivery, payment and getting things to the right place. 'In a world where we don't have our own independent supply chains, we're reliant on a lot of very interconnected moving parts that have been enabled by this period of peace. 'We've never been in a conflict during a time where we've had 'just in time' systems.' Spanish blackouts: A dry run Crump brings up the recent blackouts in Spain and Portugal. British grocers initially thought their food supplies would be completely unaffected because truck loads of tomatoes had already made their way out of the country when the problem struck. But the vehicles were electronically locked, to prevent illegal migrants attempting to clamber inside when they cross the English Channel and could only be unlocked from Spain – where the power cuts had taken down computer systems and telecoms. 'People in Spain couldn't get online, so we had locked trucks full of tomatoes sitting here that we couldn't open because of technology,' Crump says. 'No one had ever thought, 'But what happens if all of Spain goes off the grid?' And I'm sure the answer would have been, 'That'll never happen' anyway.' This tendency towards 'normalcy bias' is what Crump tries to steer his clients away from. While it isn't inevitable that war will break out, or that there will be another pandemic, humans tend to assume that things will revert to whatever the status quo has been in their lifetimes, he says. This can mean we fail to take the threat of unlikely scenarios seriously enough, or use outdated ways of thinking to solve new problems. 'We've had this long period of peace and prosperity. And, of course, business leaders have grown up in that. Military leaders have grown up in it. Politicians have grown up in it. And so it's very hard when that starts to change. 'People have grown up in a world of rules. And I think people are still trying to find ways in which the game is still being played by those old rules.' Unsurprisingly, given his line of work, Crump believes businesses must get more comfortable contemplating the unthinkable. 'Go back a decade and most executives did not want to have a crisis because a crisis is bad for your career, so they didn't want to do a test exercise – because you might fail,' Crump adds. 'But the whole point is that you can fail in an exercise, because it's not real life.'
TimesLIVE
09-05-2025
- Politics
- TimesLIVE
Mali's efforts to stem political protests to face test
Protests highlight anger over worsening security and economic issues By An attempt by Mali's military government to stamp out public dissent by banning all political activity will be put to the test on Friday as critics wary of security and economic woes call for protests. Authorities on Wednesday announced that all work by political parties and other political organisations had been suspended until further notice to preserve public order. The move came ahead of planned protests in the capital, Bamako, and the city of Segou against the government, which came to power after coups in 2020 and 2021. Government critics, including activists and opposition politicians, appeared keen to build momentum after unprecedented public gatherings on May 3 and 4 in Bamako. Those were triggered by recommendations from a national council of political actors to hand military leader Assimi Goita a five-year mandate and dissolve all political parties. Several hundred participants carried placards displaying messages calling for multi-party elections and chanted slogans such as: "Down with dictatorship, long live democracy." While organisers of Friday's protest postponed the event until further notice, calls for civil disobedience nonetheless circled on social media. A spokesperson for Mali's ministry of security and civil protection did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The likelihood of a mass popular uprising remains low for now, especially in a country like Mali where multiple political opponents and government critics have disappeared from public view, including one on Thursday, according to his party — but analysts said the coming days will be a critical test. If protesters come out in larger numbers than last weekend, and are perhaps tear-gassed or arrested, it could result in an even stronger backlash, said Benedict Manzin, an analyst with strategic risk consultancy Sibylline. If a similar number of demonstrators, or fewer, take to the streets "because people have been intimidated into silence, then this will probably just go away", he said. While the council's recommendations on dissolving political parties and granting Goita a five-year mandate were an important trigger, the protests last weekend highlighted anger over a broad range of issues in a country where military leaders — who took power promising to stem the threat posed by jihadist groups — have instead overseen a worsening security situation. "There are many factors," said a Malian security analyst in Bamako who spoke on condition of anonymity for safety reasons. They include insecurity as well as social issues like power cuts, the high cost of living and job losses. "The longer it goes on, the more unsustainable it becomes." Much of northern Mali remains out of government control, and jihadist groups are expanding their reach and carrying out more frequent attacks around Bamako. Last September, Al Qaeda affiliate Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed an attack in the capital that hit an elite police training academy and the airport. With insecurity as rampant as ever, military governments not just in Mali but in neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger — all former French colonies — have leaned on anti-colonial rhetoric to justify their rule. "But that gets old," said Manzin. "Livelihoods are being destroyed, the population are under threat of attack — eventually, what you need is just stability and economic wellbeing." Rather than a public uprising, a stronger threat to the current leaders would likely come from within the government itself, said Byron Cabrol, senior Africa analyst at Dragonfly. "A wave of protests would not be enough to kind of incentivise someone [within the military government] to take action," he said. "But it's undoubtedly a contributing factor, among many others."
The Star
09-05-2025
- Politics
- The Star
Mali's efforts to stem political protests to face test
DAKAR (Reuters) - An attempt by Mali's military government to stamp out public dissent by banning all political activity will be put to the test on Friday as critics wary of security and economic woes call for protests. Authorities on Wednesday announced that all work by political parties and other political organisations had been suspended until further notice to preserve public order. The move came ahead of planned protests in the capital, Bamako, and the city of Segou against the government, which came to power after coups in 2020 and 2021. Government critics, including activists and opposition politicians, appeared keen to build momentum after unprecedented public gatherings on May 3 and 4 in Bamako. Those were triggered by recommendations from a national council of political actors to hand military leader Assimi Goita a five-year mandate and dissolve all political parties. Several hundred participants carried placards displaying messages calling for multi-party elections and chanted slogans such as: "Down with dictatorship, long live democracy." While organisers of Friday's protest postponed the event until further notice, calls for civil disobedience nonetheless circled on social media. A spokesperson for Mali's Ministry of Security and Civil Protection did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The likelihood of a mass popular uprising remains low for now, especially in a country like Mali where multiple political opponents and government critics have disappeared from public view, including one on Thursday, according to his party - but analysts said the coming days will be a critical test. If protesters come out in larger numbers than last weekend, and are perhaps tear-gassed or arrested, it could result in an even stronger backlash, said Benedict Manzin, an analyst with strategic risk consultancy Sibylline. If a similar number of demonstrators, or fewer, take to the streets "because people have been intimidated into silence, then this will probably just go away", he said. WORSENING SECURITY While the council's recommendations on dissolving political parties and granting Goita a five-year mandate were an important trigger, the protests last weekend highlighted anger over a broad range of issues in a country where military leaders - who took power promising to stem the threat posed by jihadist groups - have instead overseen a worsening security situation. "There are many factors," said a Malian security analyst in Bamako who spoke on condition of anonymity for safety reasons. They include insecurity as well as social issues like power cuts, the high cost of living and job losses. "The longer it goes on, the more unsustainable it becomes," he said. Much of northern Mali remains out of government control, and jihadist groups are expanding their reach and carrying out more frequent attacks around Bamako. Last September, Al Qaeda affiliate Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed an attack in the capital that hit an elite police training academy and the airport. With insecurity as rampant as ever, military governments not just in Mali but in neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger - all former French colonies - have leaned on anti-colonial rhetoric to justify their rule. "But that gets old," said Manzin. "Livelihoods are being destroyed, the population are under threat of attack - eventually, what you need is just stability and economic well-being." Rather than a public uprising, a stronger threat to the current leaders would likely come from within the government itself, said Byron Cabrol, senior Africa analyst at Dragonfly. "A wave of protests would not be enough to kind of incentivise someone [within the military government] to take action," he said, "but it's undoubtedly a contributing factor, among many others." (Reporting by Portia Crowe; Editing by Robbie Corey-Boulet and Sharon Singleton)
The National
14-03-2025
- Politics
- The National
Putin's truculent truce talk is the ultimate timewasting strategy
Russian President Vladimir Putin is doing all he can to stall the implementation of a ceasefire with Ukraine, despite agreeing "in principle", because he has little incentive to end the fighting, analysts have told The National. The Kremlin believes that it is now in such a strong position that laying down weapons would hamper the maximalist aims of taking all Ukraine and evicting Nato from Eastern Europe. Layla Guest, a Russian analyst at the Sibylline geopolitical intelligence firm, said that it was 'just not in Russia's interests to do this at present,' while it was 'making more progress in expelling Ukrainian forces'. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Mr Putin on Friday of sabotaging diplomatic efforts to secure peace in Ukraine, over the Russian leader's response to a US-Ukrainian proposal for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. "He is now doing everything he can to sabotage diplomacy by setting extremely difficult and unacceptable conditions right from the start even before a ceasefire," Mr Zelenskyy said in a post on X. Across the frontline Russian forces are making incremental but solid advances while some observers also believe the Ukrainians are at the point of exhaustion. Ukraine, under severe military pressure on parts of the front line three years after Russia's full-scale invasion, has already endorsed the truce proposal. Russia's army has gained battlefield momentum, and analysts say Mr Putin likely will be reluctant to rush into a ceasefire while he feels he has an advantage. The Russian army, backed by North Korean troops, is now close to completely driving Ukrainian forces from their foothold in Russia's Kursk border region in what would be a major setback for Kyiv. Ukraine's General Staff, however, denied on Friday that its forces in Kursk were encircled by Moscow's troops, and said that any reports to that effect were 'fabricated by the Russians for political manipulation and to exert pressure on Ukraine and its partners'. The question arises as to what US President Donald Trump, who had adopted a very pro-Russian position, can now do with what appears to be a clear rebuttal after he pressured Ukraine into accepting a 30-day ceasefire. Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy sent to Moscow on Thursday to discuss the deal and who was apparently left to wait eight hours for the meeting, will now be debriefing his president. A possible phone call between Mr Putin and Mr Trump to settle outstanding ceasefire issues could be arranged after Mr Witkoff delivers messages to Washington, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. 'There is an understanding on both sides that such a call is needed,' Mr Peskov said. 'There are certainly some grounds for cautious optimism,' Mr Peskov said of the ceasefire proposal. 'A lot still needs to be done, but the President has shown solidarity with President Trump's position.' What he is unlikely to say is that Mr Putin has cleverly played the peace overtures to his advantage, and may well be the one, to use Mr Trump's Oval Office phrase, who 'holds the cards'. Mr Putin is stalling, knowing that the initiative has been handed to Russia, said Keir Giles, Russian military expert at the Chatham House think tank. "He has no interest in ceasing offensive operations when he still thinks it's going Russia's way. 'So it's not surprising that they haven't welcomed this with open arms and laid down their weapons. Because why would they? It's a perfect opportunity for Russia to put forward additional demands.' Furthermore, the idea of having a European deterrent force on the doorstep, which is currently being proposed, is the 'the very last thing that Russia wants' as it would inhibit any future territorial ambitions, said Mr Giles. 'Putin's ceasefire proposals are just another means by which Russia can string the process out while still pushing forward military advantage as continuing the war is in Putin's best interest." Those counter-demands, such as stating Nato goes back to its 1997 alliance members – removing among others, the Baltic States, Sweden and Finland – were clearly unacceptable. And his call for military aid and training to stop in Ukraine leaving the country even more vulnerable were equally impossible. 'We can already see that Putin is trying to undermine the process by raising additional questions and propositions,' said Ms Guest. What is also clear, according to a well-placed intelligence source, was that Mr Putin was wedded to his maximalist aims of getting Ukraine to be part of Russia, and Nato away from his borders. 'Putin still thinks that he can win total victory in Ukraine,' said the source. 'If you look at Putin's root causes for his illegal invasion then you understand why a ceasefire is as far from his mind as possible.' 'Putin is going to stick to his objectives of having a Ukraine that's effectively a Russian puppet state and reducing Nato presence in Eastern Europe and EU influence,' said Brig Ben Barry, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank The next step for Mr Putin after making demands to which Ukraine cannot agree would be, according to Kremlin sources reported in Russian media, to remove Kyiv from talks while engaging with Washington then continue its military advances to strengthen its negotiating hand. This was part of a deliberate ploy to push America 'to renegotiate its deal with Ukraine on the temporary ceasefire,' reported the Institute for the Study of War think tank. 'Putin is holding the ceasefire proposal hostage and is attempting to extract pre-emptive concessions ahead of formal negotiations to end the war,' it added. 'If this is a game of chess, Putin is the grand master, he's made all the clever moves and maybe Trump is not in checkmate, but he's certainly in check,' said military analyst Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former British army officer. 'Putin is the master strategist here and while Trump might be the master businessman this is where business acumen and global geopolitical strategy do not match.' If Mr Trump is in 'check' what could be his next move? Sanctions appear to be the most obvious move, despite Russia being the most sanctioned country in the world, but he may also decide to give Ukraine much greater military support. For Mr Trump it is a question of whether he understands the rejection and then what to do next. In addition to sanctions or expelling Russian diplomats, he could double down on military support for Ukraine, with more advanced military hardware and greater Nato involvement. Russia's losses in Ukraine have been huge, perhaps more than 150,000 dead and a huge depletion of its armoured vehicle inventory. The economy is said to be teetering on the edge of implosion, so perhaps if Mr Trump holds his nerve, blames Mr Putin for rejecting his ceasefire plan then he might bring him back to the negotiating table. For now, the Russian leader just has to contentedly sit back and wait to see what move his opponent's might make. In the meantime it is now Europe that has to prepare for war.
