22-03-2025
LG Exec, Capgemini Study Lay Out Reasons EV Adoption Stuck In Neutral
Improvements in battery chemistry and form, recharging infrastructure, product mix and government policies must all be made to accelerate the slower-than-anticipated adoption of battery electric vehicles in the U.S. according to an industry report and analysis by the leader of a top battery company.
In addition, at the current sales rate, some EV-related suppliers may not survive, resulting in fewer companies through consolidation or attrition.
'The market is not growing as fast as everybody expected, but it is growing,' declared Bob Lee, president of LG Energy Solution North America, during a presentation to the Society of Automotive Analysts in Troy, Michigan on Friday.
Indeed, Lee pointed to automakers that predicted EVs would account for anywhere between 50% and 100% of their sales in the early 2030's, targets he labeled, 'not realistic.'
What's happening now is simply a temporary 'ebb' in EV market growth, which is typical of new technology adoption, Lee said.
He cited research from Boston Consulting Group laying out various scenarios for EV market growth. They ranged from 19% in a worst case situation where tax incentives and aggressive emission standards are removed, supply chain disruptions and a pullback in EV investments up to 43% where federal and local legislation prioritize achieving a zero emission industry.
While the major automakers and tier-one suppliers may be able to survive what Lee sees as only a lull in EV adoption, smaller players may not.
'There are a lot of medium sized, tier two type of companies who want to be part of the ecosystem,' said Lee. 'The reality is also that I expect some level of consolidation in the industry, because there was this euphoria six or seven years ago, so we overbuilt, and there's excess capacity.'
Building the EV industry and accelerating sales all comes down to a combination of technical improvements and governmental policy support, according to a study by the Capgemini Research Institute based on a global survey of 750 senior executives from large battery, automotive, and energy and utilities organizations across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific along with in-depth interviews with 22 industry leaders.
Key findings of the study titled, 'The Battery Revolution' were:
Addressing some of the same challenges, LG's Lee noted while current battery range is sufficient for daily local driving, an average of 42 miles, the charging infrastructure is not sufficient for EV drivers on longer road trips, declaring, 'I think the public charging infrastructure is really key for me if we're going to unleash this market for
a long distance vehicle driving.'
There's also the issue known as compatibility, where many drivers are finding their batteries are not being charged because of technical incompatibility between their vehicles and some public charging stations.
It's something LG is working on, Lee said.
The matter of battery chemistry is also dynamic. While solid state seems to be a bit of a stretch goal for the industry, Lee says his company is looking closely at an alternative to commonly used lithium-ion—an amalgam of nickel, cobalt and manganese, or NCM, as well as a lower nickel percentage version.
'Just on this NMC, you may have heard of something like 811 which means 80% nickel, 10% cobalt, 10% manganese. So higher nickel content means higher energy density, but also higher cost,' he explained. 'Now we're talking about something called mid- nickel where it's like maybe a 60% nickel content, bringing the cost down.'
The notion of one standard battery cited in the Capgemini report is a type of nirvana that's so far being blocked by a moat of corporate preferences and investments in proprietary technologies.
Of course, affordability remains another key challenge towards greater EV adoption.
The average price of an internal combustion engine vehicle in the U.S. last year was $48,000, according to Lee, while the average sticker for an EV was $56,000 as some automakers entered the market with their premium brands.
That's changing, said Lee as the car companies are introducing a broader range of EVs at lower price points.
But just as affordability may be improving, the Damocles Sword of import tariffs set to go into effect on April 2 represents a roadblock.
Lee says tariffs can be helpful in certain situations, but what's been threatened by the Trump administration is more troublesome.
'We're trying to kind of develop different scenarios and make sure that we have contingency plans built,' he said. 'But I think this overall tariff on the auto industry is something that we all are struggling with.
But despite the myriad challenges, Lee is confident there's no stopping the EV revolution, declaring, 'there's going to be ebbs and flows. I believe EVs will have a long-term growth.'
